2024 Chicago Cubs Positional Preview: Second Base

Strength and stability up the middle are the Cubs' greatest points of pride entering 2024. For at least another few years, they want Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner working the double-play pivot, and they expect big value from each.

The Starter: Nico Hoerner
2023 Stats: 7.1% BB%, 12.1% K%, .283/.346/.383, 102 wRC+, 4.7 fWAR
2024 Projections: ZiPS: 6.6 BB%, 12.0% K%, .276/.335/.393, 99 wRC+, 4.0 fWAR
Scouting Report: On the surface, Hoerner can feel almost ho-hum at times. He’s a great defender, he makes a ton of contact, but he doesn't do it all that loudly, on the stat page. For example, I know he had a great 2023 season, and yet I forgot he finished just shy of the 5-win mark, according to WAR. That put Hoerner just outside of the top-20 most valuable position players in baseball.

The good news for the Cubs is that there is very little in Hoerner’s profile that suggests this won’t continue for the 2024 campaign. ZiPS thinks that Hoerner should continue on his 4+ win path, and I have to agree. While Hoerner isn’t going to wow us with his power, he should make a lot of contact and play great defense. He's a terror on the bases, too, which only drives his value higher. There's even hope for more sustained, well-rounded offense from him in 2024, as our own Matthew Trueblood wrote about in January.

If there is any real concern over Hoerner, it's that he’s had some injury issues in the past, spending time on the IL in every season prior to 2023. With that being the only concern, the Cubs should rest easy for the time in which Hoerner is going to be in the lineup. 

Other Options: Nico is the unquestioned starting option at second base for the Cubs. Coming off back-to-back 4+ fWAR seasons, the slick-fielding Horner will start most of the games at the position. Despite that, the Cubs have built up a pretty impressive group of players behind Hoerner who could fill in for a rest day, or a dreaded trip to the IL.

For most off days, the Cubs could turn to one of three players projected to make the Opening Day roster; Christopher Morel, Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni. All three of these players are likely in line for starts at third, but will also be available to shift to second. Each offers a slightly different skill set, so who gets the start could rely on what the team needs; Morel provides power, Madrigal brings bat-to-ball skills, and Mastrobuoni has a good plate approach. All three, as well, could fill in for a short-term IL stint. 

While not an option at the start of the 2024 campaign, Matt Shaw could also factor into the position. Shaw has been focusing on learning and honing his abilities at third, but much like the other three players mentioned, he may be more of a natural option at second, if needed. It would take a few things for the Cubs to end up needing Shaw at the keystone (a long-term injury to Hoerner in the second half of the season, coupled with a strong first half of the season for Shaw in Iowa, for starters), but it’s on the table.

The Big Question: What do the Cubs do if Nico needs an extended IL stint?
Despite playing in 150 games last season, Hoerner has had a penchant for ending up on the IL throughout his professional career. He’s had broken bones, as well as soft-tissue injuries, so it’s likely that Hoerner will land on the IL at some point during the season. It’s never easy to replace a player who’s put up back-to-back four-win seasons, but the Cubs would be in a unique position to replace him with quantity or quality, depending on the length of the absence. 

The Cubs are in great shape at second base. They have a young, energetic, balanced star at the position, and a number of alternatives on whom to call if that star goes down. In a spring filled with uncertainty, this is one area of comfortable clarity.