Jason Ross

Yeah, two years for a 36 year old SP who hasn't topped 106 innings since 2019 borders on scary. Maeda is a fine bet at the back end of a rotation, but you also have to accept you'll need someone else to start 10-14 games in his spot where he is at in his career.

A few things on Starlin Castro: one, he did start pulling the ball more (and I'll show that in a minute) but also, it didn't ruin him. That feels like a revisionist history. The idea that Castro was some excellent hitter in his young career just doesn't hold water. Through his first four seasons, he was a 95 wRC+ hitter. Was he young? Sure, he was just 22 by the end of that sample, but it was clear he wasn't a superstar offensive force regardless of his ability to make contact with the baseball. It was slightly better than the average SS (which hovered in the high 80's for wRC+) but it was also clear he needed to get better if he was going to be anything more. In 2014, Castro had his best offensive season in his career, a 117 wRC+ season. You know what he did more than he did in his previous four seasons? He pulled the baseball almost 8% more than previous norms. He hit more home runs per fly balls. He hit less ground balls. It is also true he was not as good the next season, but he also stopped walking so much. That's not because he was pulling the ball less, he made an approach change that never seemed to get fixed consistently as this skill would come and go year in and year out. He dropped his walk totals to below 4%. His next 100+ wRC+ season? Go figure it was when his walk rates jumped back up the next two seasons. Back down to 4.1% in 2019, and where did his wRC+ go? Back to 91. The narrative of "he pulled baseballs and was ruined doesn't appear to be supported by data. He was a decent hitter who had his best seasons when he hit for more power (likely because he pulled the ball more). He stopped walking to much and his offense tanked. Castro's issue were approach on his end, being too much of a free swinger, not because he was pulling the ball. But even then, when he wasn't pulling the ball, it's not like he was some consistent force at the plate either. His 95 wRC+ in his first four seasons was very close to his last 3 seasons, when he put up a 91 wRC+ with Miami and Washington.

What you're suggesting was a good part of the Cubs previous pitch-drafting-strategy, drafting largely, pitchability guys over stuff guys. It was generally an abject failure on the Cubs part. It isn't to say it always is, as Cleveland has made a living on this strat. I don't think it matters, personally. It's about implementation.

A quick look of his followers and his podcast has me very convinced this is just a "throw a logical guess at the wall and then claim he has sources" thing. Nothing he posts outside of this suggests sources. His podcast has 800 followers. No important Cubs reporter followers.

DRS is very reliable as is OAA. They still can suffer in small sample sizes (which is fair to mention here, hes barely played 3b at the MLB level for example), but OAA is tracked through baseball savant, it's a strong foundation (as is DRS, and DRS uses arm value too). We also have how the Cubs have used Morel...which is that they avoided using him at 3b like the plague. He's played over 1000 innings at 3b through the system, so it's not just DRS and OAA, it's also internal data and scouting. End result, if the Cubs thought he was ready last year to play 3b, he'd almost assuredly have. If the Cubs were beyond a doubt convinced he could play it now, they would be unlikely to be publicly saying they're experimenting with him at 1b (they might think there's a chance he still improves and can play it, Im not sure i believe that they do, but I dont know so its a valid speculation). His defensive value is very much in question and I think it's fair to wonder if his best defensive position is a place the Cubs have solved currently. I don't think he's someone we should give away, but we don't need a Marquee player on return. The Cubs seem to be focused on bringing in some sort of big hitting DH, further marginalizing Morel if successful. A young mid-rotation arm doesn't feel "marquee" IMO, but likely represents more value to the 2024 Cubs than Morel as a DH. Or worse, as a bench option. It's just about maximizing value. If the Cubs can turn a player they're luke warm on, or a player who they can replace similarly for a player they couldn't so easily find...then it's a win.

I'd have him above Alcantara. Let's put it this way, Owen Caissie put up a 144 wrC+ at AA (with the weird baseball) at age 20. Similarly, Alcantara has 20 PAs in AA and posted a worse wRC+ in A+ at a year older than Caisssie did. I think Alcantara's 99% is above that of Caissie. But I think we kind of forget just how young Owen is and how good he has been. I don't think you'd be wrong in your evaluation, they're close. I just would have Caissie ahead, personally. From a real world position...They're interchangeable on prospect lists. What's fun is we can have two prospects like this in the system and actually debate where they belong.

Exactly why I asked. Wanted to see if there was something legitimate out there or it was just this passing around.

Curious on the sourcing on this?

I don't think the Royals are inclined to move Witt currently.

Possibly, yeah. Depending on what the "news" is. If it's finalists, or who he's meeting with...that would likely fit that. If he's made a choice, probably not.

Honestly, I was trying to temper my bias with Caissie on the 70 grade power. 80 is a real possibility, but I also know I personally adore Owen Caissie and have, for a while. So I probably tend to swing the other way sometimes writing these guys up like that.

Yeah, next week sometime feels right. Rumors have been that he wants to sign before the Winter Meetings. Kind of tracks with him waiting to avoid some of the signing media circus and team leaks. So next week feels like it could be it.

The hulking Canadian outfielder has some of the most prodigious power in the system. The Cubs have aggressively moved him from level to level. How has his development gone so far? And when might we see the Big Maple in Chicago? Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Entering 2023, few Cub prospects have been pushed as aggressively as Owen Caissie. Making his debut in South Bend before he turned 20 and subsequently making his first start in Tennessee before being legally able to purchase alcohol in the States, Caissie has rocketed through the system at a breakneck pace. At times, he's struggled with swing and miss; other times, he's dazzled with his power. 2023 was another strong season for the giant right-fielder, perhaps his best. If there's been a single knock on Caissie, it's that there are significant amounts of swing and miss in his game. A quick look on his Baseball-Reference page or his FanGraphs would lead one to believe that not only had this issue continued, but it had gotten even worse, as his season strikeout rate was 31.1%, tying the highest number he's had at any level. More so than any other prospect in the system, however, this number is highly misleading. As I have discussed ad nauseam in these rankings, the first reason is the appearance of the pre-tacked baseball that the Southern League used throughout the first half of the season. During this time, the lumbering slugger struck out 33.9% of the time, an alarmingly high number, regardless of his age, but even many of these strikeouts come very early in his stint. This makes sense; Caissie was one of the youngest players in the entire league. We see improvement from May to July 9th, as he lowered that number to just under 30%. Things get very interesting after switching the ball, and Caissie lowered his number to 27%. A clear progression and learning occurred for the Canadian, and this might be one of the season's biggest storylines for any Cub MiLB hitter. Caissie will always strike out, but he will be very good if he can maintain a level in the high 20s. Secondly, we must accept that left-handed hitters don't hit left-handed pitchers well at any level. That's not every player, but there is a league-wide issue. As a whole, left-handed hitters at the major league level hit a paltry 90 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. If we look deeper into Caissie's numbers and isolate his data against right-handed pitchers, the strikeout rate goes even further down...to just 25%. That's not just with the non-pre-tacked baseball... that's all season. Overall, Caissie's numbers looked great, though. He improved his wRC+ despite the level jump, hitting a solid 144 wRC+. His exit velocities weren't just elite for AA but just elite. It would be impressive enough if the 20-year-old posted the 15th-best average exit velocity in the Southern League, even more so if it was the 15th-best in all of the minor leagues, but what Caissie did was have the 15th-best exit velocity in every level of baseball. This is what elite power looks like. Defensively, it sounds like Caissie made progress in right field. He boasts a 60-grade arm, so the question with him will always be, "Can he move enough?". While this is a question that most in the industry accept will eventually be "no," we aren't there yet. He made a few highlight plays throughout the season and threw out even more runners with the arm. At least for now, projecting a bit of time where Caissie has decent enough defense at the position is on the table. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Owen Caissie is ticketed for Iowa in 2024 as a 21-year-old. He's six months younger than Pete Crow-Armstrong and is on a similar timeline as the centerfielder. His wRC+ and offensive numbers are better than similar power-hitting-outfielders like James Woods of the Washington Nationals, someone considered by all to be a top-25 prospect and by many to be a top-10 prospect. Granted, part of that is the defensive projection (more on that later), but Caissie is criminally underrated. I expect Caissie will struggle, probably through sometime in May; this is a big jump. He's shown a consistent pattern of struggle-growth these last few years in which the first 30-45 days have moments of brilliance surrounded by strikeouts and poor results. But then he begins to figure it out and proves he's ready for the next challenge by the end of the year. There's a world where Owen Caissie helps the Cubs in 2024 at the major league level, though 2025 feels more doable. With the corner spots blocked today, his path will likely be at either first base or DH (depending on this offseason). There's also a chance he's traded... there is risk here with the contact. If he can strike out around 27-30% of the time, he will probably be an excellent power-hitting player. If he's over 30%, it becomes far more difficult to project if he'll walk and hit enough to remain relevant. The upside on Owen Caissie, regardless of risk, is pretty big. He hits for power, and when he hits, he hits the ball hard. There's legitimate 70-grade power in his body, and you can easily envision him becoming a 35+ home run hitter. Is there some platoon risk as well? Sure, but as discussed, this issue is league-wide right now and doesn't seem unique to the power-hitting outfielder. As we progress in a data-driven world, platoon matchups are just a part of the game, and as a left-handed hitter, he would still be on the "strong" side of the platoon, hitting more often than his right-handed-hitting counterpart. Even if he's confined to a less premium position, he does well enough with the bat where a natural path forward exists, too. I'm a big fan of the future here, and I can't wait to see him (hopefully) peppering Waveland and Avenue with bombs sooner rather than later. View full article

I don't want Suarez, but he's only at $11m next year. He's not expensive, either. If you think he's 2 win player he's below market value.

No he couldn't. A "Roederer-type" is a non-prospect. Wesneski has some upside but as of today is a decent, multi-inning reliever. Was Vlad not great last season? Sure. The Jays have more invested in him than simply his 2023 fWAR. They have hope that he can get back to prior (and his base savant data suggests that is well within belief at the age of 24). They aren't trading him for a maybe MLB SP who needs work and a literal nothing prospect.

Yeah, I kind of fall into this boat. I really like Alcantara, but I feel like now is the time to make a decently big trade and Alcantara feels like the guy I feel most "okay" with moving (he'd both hurt to see go, while also playing a position the Cubs have covered in the system with others). I'd really rather if they didnt spent it on a Sandoval, as that feels like a re-do of the Quintana trade. Now is the time to use Alcantara to get a real player that the franchise hasn't had in a while.

Which, I guess is fair. I really question the Lynn move. Gibson I get. But Lynn looks absolutely done, and I just can't see any team looking at him and thinking there's anything left. That felt very much akin to the Cubs bringing back Arrieta in 2021. With the amount of depth options, Lynn feels like a weird signing.

Oh, fully agreed. And the way the team is acting (Lynn and Gibson) they aren't shooting very high right now.

Yamamoto is apparently golfing with Nootbaar today.

Holy awfully worded tweet, batman! With careful reading you can tell hes saying Yamamoto will get $200m, but it wouldn't be hard to read that and think he's suggesting Imanaga will (he won't)

This Bichette thing might have legs...

Kevin Alcantara, "the Jaguar," is one of the most exciting prospects in the system. With long, lanky levers, quick hands, and extreme power, where does the baddest cat in the Cubs system fit into their plans? Image courtesy of © Allan Henry-USA TODAY Sports 2003 Season Review Acquired for Cubs legend and fan favorite Anthony Rizzo during the fire sale of 2021, Kevin Alcantara has been one of the most high-profile prospects in the system. It's rare to see human beings who are 6'6" and can move the way that the Jaguar does, and with his power, it's not hard to see what everyone loves about the center fielder. 2022 started a little sluggish, but upon the end, Alcantara had shown mastery of Myrtle Beach, putting up a very good 124 wRC+. Next up for 2023? South Bend. Following a similar path as in 2022, Alcantara got off to a relatively slow start in South Bend, posting up pedestrian (or worse) numbers through mid-May. In his first 156 PAs, Alcantara slumped to the tune of a 69 wRC+, striking out 41 times and walking just six times. Even more concerning was his paltry three home runs. While it's true that prospect development isn't linear, it's always more fun when a prospect gets off to a hot start versus the kind of start that the (then) 20-year-old outfielder got off to. Thankfully for the Cubs and their top prospect, things seemed to get easier once the weather heated up. Over his next 140 PAs, the Jaguar posted up a .338 batting average, an improved strikeout rate, a much-improved walk rate (16 walks over this span versus the previous six), 19 extra-base hits, and a sparking 169 wRC+. It was clear over this span that there were improvements in his approach; he was seeing the ball better, and the results were following. Sadly, a lower leg injury knocked him out for the next month, derailing his season a bit. While thankfully a minor knock, it came in the midst of his best run of the season. Once he returned, there was a bit of rust to knock off in his first few games, but he quickly jumped back into similar form, finishing with another run of 151 wRC+, even better strikeout, and walk numbers, and finding another nine extra-base hits over 91 PAs. The center fielder would earn a chance to help the Tennessee Smokies capture the Southern League championship with other prospects like Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, and Cade Horton, impressing in a small sample size there, too, even hitting his first AA home run. The Cubs rewarded Alcantara by naming him to the Arizona Fall League with other Cub top prospects like James Triantos. During his time in the Arizona Fall League, the streaky hitter showed why people in the industry drool over him and why others have reservations about what he'll become. Among the league leaders, Alcantara hit five home runs, seven doubles, and a triple. He was also among the league leaders in strikeouts, whiffing a whopping 30 times in 86 plate appearances. The AFL is not usually known for its pitching level, so this was a bit concerning. 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Kevin Alcantara is in an odd situation because he's been on the 40-man roster for awhile now and is using up his option seasons. While not an issue yet, it may affect his ETA down the road. While the power-hitting outfielder will start in Tennessee, the Cubs may be more inclined to move him up now that he's got two option years remaining and would need to be on an MLB roster come Opening Day 2026. That's not to say he doesn't belong in Tennessee; just something to keep in mind. What will be interesting is to monitor the continued evolution of his plate approach and swing and miss. Players with long levers can get beat up high often, so this will be a point of emphasis. One of the most impressive home runs the Jaguar hit all year may have come in the AFL when he hit a chest-high fastball a very long way, proving that he has the hand speed to get up and around on those pitches moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle through May, as this has happened now two years running, and a pattern is starting. It also wouldn't be shocking to see the top prospect moved this offseason. As with almost all of the Cub's top prospects, their names are likely to come up in any high-profile trade talks the Cubs have; with Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of Alcantara in both timeline and likely defensive acumen, the Cubs may find it preferable to cash in on Alcantara now in these trade talks. There's considerable risk with his profile, as the plate approach and strikeouts could be a fatal flaw. That said, the system may not have a prospect with a bigger upside. The result is that Kevin Alcantara has a "unicorn" upside as a 6'6" player capable of playing above-average CF defense (or Gold Glove corner defense) with 30+ home run power and the ability to steal handfuls of bases. Regardless of the trade target, It may be difficult for the Cubs to sell on that upside this offseason. View full article