Cubs Winter Top Prospects Rankings: #5 Kevin Alcantara

2003 Season Review
Acquired for Cubs legend and fan favorite Anthony Rizzo during the fire sale of 2021, Kevin Alcantara has been one of the most high-profile prospects in the system. It's rare to see human beings who are 6'6" and can move the way that the Jaguar does, and with his power, it's not hard to see what everyone loves about the center fielder. 2022 started a little sluggish, but upon the end, Alcantara had shown mastery of Myrtle Beach, putting up a very good 124 wRC+. Next up for 2023? South Bend.

Following a similar path as in 2022, Alcantara got off to a relatively slow start in South Bend, posting up pedestrian (or worse) numbers through mid-May. In his first 156 PAs, Alcantara slumped to the tune of a 69 wRC+, striking out 41 times and walking just six times. Even more concerning was his paltry three home runs. While it's true that prospect development isn't linear, it's always more fun when a prospect gets off to a hot start versus the kind of start that the (then) 20-year-old outfielder got off to.

Thankfully for the Cubs and their top prospect, things seemed to get easier once the weather heated up. Over his next 140 PAs, the Jaguar posted up a .338 batting average, an improved strikeout rate, a much-improved walk rate (16 walks over this span versus the previous six), 19 extra-base hits, and a sparking 169 wRC+. It was clear over this span that there were improvements in his approach; he was seeing the ball better, and the results were following. Sadly, a lower leg injury knocked him out for the next month, derailing his season a bit. While thankfully a minor knock, it came in the midst of his best run of the season.

Once he returned, there was a bit of rust to knock off in his first few games, but he quickly jumped back into similar form, finishing with another run of 151 wRC+, even better strikeout, and walk numbers, and finding another nine extra-base hits over 91 PAs. The center fielder would earn a chance to help the Tennessee Smokies capture the Southern League championship with other prospects like Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, and Cade Horton, impressing in a small sample size there, too, even hitting his first AA home run. 

The Cubs rewarded Alcantara by naming him to the Arizona Fall League with other Cub top prospects like James Triantos. During his time in the Arizona Fall League, the streaky hitter showed why people in the industry drool over him and why others have reservations about what he'll become. Among the league leaders, Alcantara hit five home runs, seven doubles, and a triple. He was also among the league leaders in strikeouts, whiffing a whopping 30 times in 86 plate appearances. The AFL is not usually known for its pitching level, so this was a bit concerning.

2024 Season Outlook and ETA
Kevin Alcantara is in an odd situation because he's been on the 40-man roster for awhile now and is using up his option seasons. While not an issue yet, it may affect his ETA down the road. While the power-hitting outfielder will start in Tennessee, the Cubs may be more inclined to move him up now that he's got two option years remaining and would need to be on an MLB roster come Opening Day 2026. That's not to say he doesn't belong in Tennessee; just something to keep in mind. 

What will be interesting is to monitor the continued evolution of his plate approach and swing and miss. Players with long levers can get beat up high often, so this will be a point of emphasis. One of the most impressive home runs the Jaguar hit all year may have come in the AFL when he hit a chest-high fastball a very long way, proving that he has the hand speed to get up and around on those pitches moving forward. I wouldn't be surprised to see him struggle through May, as this has happened now two years running, and a pattern is starting.

It also wouldn't be shocking to see the top prospect moved this offseason. As with almost all of the Cub's top prospects, their names are likely to come up in any high-profile trade talks the Cubs have; with Pete Crow-Armstrong ahead of Alcantara in both timeline and likely defensive acumen, the Cubs may find it preferable to cash in on Alcantara now in these trade talks. There's considerable risk with his profile, as the plate approach and strikeouts could be a fatal flaw. That said, the system may not have a prospect with a bigger upside. The result is that Kevin Alcantara has a "unicorn" upside as a 6'6" player capable of playing above-average CF defense (or Gold Glove corner defense) with 30+ home run power and the ability to steal handfuls of bases. Regardless of the trade target, It may be difficult for the Cubs to sell on that upside this offseason.

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