Jason Ross

Pete Crow-Armstrong has been regarded as the Cubs' top prospect for the last two years. Making his debut in Chicago, and having a successful campaign in Double A and Triple A in 2023, when do we think PCA will permanently roam center in Chicago? And just what kind of a player is the brash center fielder? Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports 2023 Season Review Pete Crow-Armstrong entered the season with the hope of many that he may be able to make an impact at the highest level with the Cubs at some point. With strong defense and running, his path to Chicago was fairly clear as long as the bat continued progressing. The good news is that he did just that: he debuted with the Chicago Cubs in 2023. The bad news is that he didn't look particularly comfortable during his short stint with the team. Starting his season in Tennessee, Crow-Armstrong got a hot start in 2023 in his first real taste of the level. The quick-footed PCA, hitting .316 with a 129 wRC+, showed why people were so high on him. However, he showed flaws in his game, such as his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate, walking just 3% of the time compared to a strikeout rate of over 22%. It's not that the K's were high, but his free-swinging nature was showing out a bit, causing his walk total to remain too low. Still, the hitter persevered and improved in this area while maintaining a strong offensive output. May saw his walk rate jump to 8% (though a dip in his wRC+ to 96), and a further lowering in his strikeout rate began to show that at least at the Double-A level, the flashy fielder was figuring things out on the other side of the diamond. June saw Crow-Armstrong take off and announce that maybe he was just done with Double A: walking 11% of the time now, posting an ISO north of .230 and with a 149 wRC+. By August 1st, it was time for promotion to the Cubs Triple-A affiliate in Iowa. Iowa started similarly to Tennessee for PCA: a bunch of strikeouts in his first few games and a little walking, striking out seven times in only 18 plate appearances. This kind of struggle wouldn't last long. Pete's next 51 PAs saw him hit three home runs, four doubles, and a triple of a .353 batting average and a 173 wRC+. More importantly? Only ten strikeouts, coupled with nine walks. Crow-Armstrong would hit a few skids here or there, posting a -5 wRC+ from August 20th through the 29th, but finished relatively strongly over his last 11 games (though with increasingly worse strikeout numbers). Looking for a spark, he was called up to the Cubs for the final handful of weeks. Sadly, his call up was not the spark plug the Cubs hoped it may have been. With his electric speed and defense, seeing the brash youngster catch fire wouldn't have been surprising. Instead, over his 19 plate appearances with the Cubs, PCA went hitless, striking out seven times and being caught stealing twice out of four attempts. It was kind of a disappointing run. Frankly, I think it was good for him... 2024 Season Outlook and ETA Where Pete Crow-Armstrong starts will be up for debate over the next few months. As of the writing of this article, the Cubs only have Mike Tauchman ahead of PCA on the center field depth chart. While Tauchman had some initial magic, he struggled to the tune of a sub-90 wRC+ over his last ~170 plate appearances. The Cubs could allow auchman to play "caretaker" of the position for the first month while Pete Crow-Armstrong readjusts in Iowa. There's no rush on PCA, and his first 19 PAs showed that he still probably has something to learn, even if it's simply a little humility. But for someone with as much confidence in himself, as PCA does, it was probably good to get knocked down a bit, as it should force him to reevaluate some of the things he can work on (namely, his plate approach). Craig Counsell's hiring for the managerial position may also affect this choice; Counsell was no stranger to playing rookies in Milwaukee (Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, to name a few) in important roles. He also was fearless in playing defensive first players (such as Turang and Jace Peterson). It wouldn't be crazy to think Counsell's pick would be the defensively near-elite Pete Crow-Armstrong based on his history. The Cubs may also re-sign someone like Cody Bellinger, who won the 2023 NL Comeback Player of the Year award. While Bellinger would be able to slide over to first base if/when the cocky kid was ready, it would be probable that he would start in center while PCA got some extra time in Iowa. How good is Pete Crow-Armstrong, and why is he in the number one slot? The first reason is his floor. Playing a premium position, providing excellent defense, and being a demon on the bases give PCA one of the easiest paths to two wins I've seen out of a prospect. Dalton Varsho, in 2023, posted an 85 wRC+ (.220/.285/.389 slash) but was still worth 2.1 fWAR because he was a +2.8 on the bases and +18 DRS in CF. Brenton Doyle was the worst-hitting center fielder in baseball with a horrible 43(!!) wRC+ but led the league in DRS for center fielders and was worth a whole win. All the Cubs' top prospect has to do is match Varsho with the bat, and he's a pretty near a lock for two wins. But what's the ceiling? That's a more complicated question. The reality is that there are a lot of outcomes here. If PCA controls the zone with the bat, settles down the approach, and allows the game to come to him just a little more, there's genuinely a 5+ WAR player here. He's got 20+ home run power and the swing to provide it; he has excellent bat-to-ball skills, and combined with the things we know he's good at (speed and defense), he could become a multiple All-Star. But if the approach isn't fixed and lags, that two-win floor might be where he settles in. He's our top prospect because he offers a unique combination of floor and ceiling, but he is not without fault. Regardless, there's a chance that the Crow-Armstrong for Javier Baez trade in the summer of 2021 becomes the Mets version of Lou Brock, and while that may not happen, it's really fun to dream it, isn't it? View full article

Braves have been the most connected here, but it does say "finalists". Wonder if the Cubs are in any way involved.

If you figure that out...any MLB team in the league would hire you! The prospect game is such a horsefeathers show of hopes and dreams, really. It's weird, you fall in love with these guys and most of them, at best, are the answer to some obscure trivia question.

While not "Cubs" related, think this is important. Does seem as though regardless of any Soto trade, the ultimate goal will be to hit free agency. Maybe that changes, but does seem to back up any of the preconceived notions on Boras clients.

It's really easy to do. I know I'll be refreshing twitter pretty much obsessively next week with the Winter Meetings going on. I'd love to see Ohtani go somewhere before then from a personal standpoint so I can either just be on cloud 9 or accept it's just not going to be a thing.

Oh, Smyly wasn't necessarily "apart" of the rotation, but a guy I expect will make a few starts (and can). I'm not a big Smyly guy (still mad he got a multi-year deal).

Yeah, typical twitter filler stuff for slow news days.

I haven't seen anything to suggest he's very legit. He has some classic hallmarks of being sketchy: pinned tweet bagging about a source break, for example. Now, in his case, his is a little odd in that breaking whatever minor personnel firing isn't a sexy thing to break, which adds a bit on the legitimate side. Chris Cotillo was famously a young kid breaking into journalism who also broke things online and was questioned...he now covers the Red Sox as one of their lead beat writers...so these people are not always fake. With that said, I'm not sure there's much news in there. We knew the Cubs, Dodgers and Blue Jays were in. No one has expected the Red Sox to be a player here. The Rangers remain a team on the periphery from sourcing, so that wouldn't be shocking they dropped out. So whether he's legit or not, this is pretty surface level stuff overall (which leads me to believe it's not?). I'm more inclined to think small sources might hear about teams dropping out (those teams won't care about leaks any more), but the actual signing will almost assuredly only be broken by the biggest of the media guys. Not some random.

Ryan Flaherty, finalist for Padres' managerial job, will be named Cubs' Bench coach. Former Padres bench coach. Per Britt Griroli As an aside, I remember watching the draft in which the Cubs selected Flaherty. I hate that I'm at an age now where players I watch drafted are managing my favorite team. I hate it.

Pagan to the Reds: 2/$16m

Yeah, with Ohtani, there seems to be a lot of different and swaying views out there as to what he wants. We've heard he wants a winner. We've heard he wants to be close to the West Coast. We've heard conflicting reports that he cares less about geography and more about the ballpark. We've heard it's not just money. We've heard he wants little media attention on the meetings... It's a pretty interesting free agent experience. On one hand, he's the biggest MLB free agent since A-Rod, and on the other, it's been basically devoid of any leaks, speculation or anything other than a few "maybes". We won't see many free agent experiences like this one, I don't think.

I'd put this in the same category as Ohtani feels like a forgone conclusion to the Dodgers in that I think it's an easy connection to make (large market + need), but one that we'll have to see play out. If Ohtani ends up in LA, for example, I'd expect the Cubs to seriously pivot there and can largely match anything the Yankees provide if they're encouraged enough. Others as well.

Based on his followers there's a few decent ones in there. Does seem to have been out front on some Mets front office firings? If so that points to something. Hard to tell, as those four teams (minus the Angels) seem to be the four getting the most love right now in the media so kind of low hanging fruit plus his former team and LA rivals. Rangers being out might be notable, and lack of mention of the Giants might be interesting. These smaller sources are always so hard to pinpoint. I'm sure some of them have some people they know and others are just riding coat tails. Some of them are Chris Cotello who ended up being a real journalist and now covers the Red Sox and most are just guys hoping to make it seem legit.

I was thinking the same thing. It feels like that's where you'd start, but maybe that's why no one wants me to run their MLB franchise, either.

Per Andy Martino (NY Post) Trade talks between the Padres and the Yankees regarding Juan Soto have progressed to a point of exchanging names, though the ask was "very high" and the two sides are not close.

Yeah, if Dave wanted to be taken seriously he'd have to be something like DavesAnus420. With such a simple and boring name like "Dave" how can I even begin to believe the man has sources?

He was so bad last year, I forgot he existed.

We'll see. Maybe it's hopeful wishing, but with the reports that Ohtani may not be super jazzed about the ballpark out there, it may be more realistic to get Yamamoto. But the Yankees are lurking there, and it's hard to beat the Yankees (I.E. Aaron Judge).

I have a feeling they'll go with a 6-man rotation of sorts (though maybe no a full-set-6 man, if that makes snese?) The Cubs have 5 guys right now who can start (though not the 5 guys who should be "the rotation" if that makes sense) in Steele, Hendricks, Wicks, Asad, and Smyly. Wicks has already a good amount of "6-man rotation" in him. Whether the Cubs go with a Glasnow, or a Bieber, or one of the Japanese arms, they'll also be somewhat of an innings-watcher. Japnese arms tend not to pitch as often/much as American arms, and Glasnow/Bieber have plenty of injury concerns. Kind of the perfect situation for a 6-man, if you ask me. So maybe someone gets a break here or there through the order, or a rest.

Oh for sure. There's some good stuff for Keegan. I really would like to see him get back to being useful. And it's possible! I just wouldn't let him stop me from Glasnow if we can!

Keegan Thompson is fine, but probably won't be counted on much from the Cubs point of view if things go well. You've got guys like Horton and Brown who will be more likely to start. Already have Wesneski/Asad/Smyly as multi-inning relievers. Injuries will happen, and he'd probably see innings, but he's likely going to be left on the outside moreso than the inside. He'll also be 29. Not suggesting he's toasted at that age, just that if the Cubs take take a 29 year old multi-inning guy that isn't likely for opening day roster duty and it helps turn into Tyler Glasnow (regardless of how much of a glass cannon he is), that's W in my book.

I'll address specifically the bolded: while I still disagree with some things (and that's fine, all's fair in love, and war, and prospect evaluations, frankly), I find this post far more fair than where we started, questioning whether he had met expectations to date or not. I'd rather we get to a point of fairness, even if we may see things differently, than unfairly looking at a prospect, if that makes sense. That's usually a very good place to be at the end of a discussion.

The Cubs just don't do this in the MiLB right now. For example, look at Wicks. He didn't go over 5 innings last year while in Tennessee or Iowa, but went 6+ his first MLB start. They seem to have a set limit they feel comfortable with at lower levels, while they ramp up PC and length at the MLB level.