Cubs Winter Top Prospects Rankings: #9 Jackson Ferris

I have high hopes for this kid. I worry about an arm injury. again.

He's my favorite prospect in the system right now.  Love the profile, love the stuff, love his slightly off-kilter mechanics (Tim Lincecum was one of my favorite non-Cubs), love that he rebounded after a rough stretch this season.

As with any pitching prospect, he needs to stay healthy and hit his innings limits.  If that happens next season, I expect him to be the #1 prospect in this system by this time next year.

34 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I have high hopes for this kid. I worry about an arm injury. again.

Good thing with the Cubs, and *knock on wood*, is that they baby their MilB arms, hard. There plenty of limits for pitchers to hit and they yank them pretty hard. Throw more than ~30 some pitches in an inning? You're done. Throw 5 IP? Hit the shower. I know many people don't like this style and would prefer arms to go longer, but the Cubs have generally avoided major injuries throughout their system and I think the way they handle their arms is part of it. Would it be cool to see guys all ready to go 6+? Maybe, But I'd rather have an arm ready to throw 5 IP than missing the next 18 months because of TJS.

One of my personal baseball truisms is that age doesn't really matter for pitchers.  Like if you have two identical pitchers, one 25 and one 35, I think their short and medium term (let's say < 3 year) outlooks are largely the same.  But like even if that’s true (and I think I'm in the minority in this belief), I'm not sure how well that idea holds up for a 19 year old?

So a case like Ferris is interesting.  It does sort of feel like he just needs 18-24 months to build up his strength (to improve his velo) and get some reps (to improve his command and tighten up his breaking stuff).  We've seem with e.g. Jordan Wicks that the velo bump doesn't always come, but when comparing a 19 year old to a 22 year old this might be where age actually matters.

I think if we had more at the lower levels of the farm I'd be pretty okay with Ferris as trade bait.  But given that SB and especially Myrtle Beach look kind of sad next year, guys like Ferris and Gray and Rojas take on a bit of an outsized role in the org's health.

My hot take if he survives the trade flurry this offseason: Ferris’ upside ceiling potential rivals only Gallardo’s among the SP prospects

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Good thing with the Cubs, and *knock on wood*, is that they baby their MilB arms, hard. There plenty of limits for pitchers to hit and they yank them pretty hard. Throw more than ~30 some pitches in an inning? You're done. Throw 5 IP? Hit the shower. I know many people don't like this style and would prefer arms to go longer, but the Cubs have generally avoided major injuries throughout their system and I think the way they handle their arms is part of it. Would it be cool to see guys all ready to go 6+? Maybe, But I'd rather have an arm ready to throw 5 IP than missing the next 18 months because of TJS.

I’m not sure there are innings limits or that guys are babied so much as most guys aren’t strong or good enough to even get 5, let alone comfortably, and the Cubs are cognizant of that post-pandemic. I always go back to Gallardo leading the org in IP from ‘21-‘22 out of the pandemic as the youngest OD full season SP, among the youngest in the sport, and how they’ve let pretty much the whole low minors arms rack up sometimes even more BBs than Ks in service of strength and conditioning rather than babying arms

I do agree with your overall point that the Cubs seem alright at avoiding the major arm surgeries like TJ, but think what we see as babying as individualized programs that considers their background , overall strength and conditioning, the pandemic’s multi-year impact on development etc 

16 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

My hot take if he survives the trade flurry this offseason: Ferris’ upside ceiling potential rivals only Gallardo’s among the SP prospects

I’m not sure there are innings limits or that guys are babied so much as most guys aren’t strong or good enough to even get 5, let alone comfortably, and the Cubs are cognizant of that post-pandemic. I always go back to Gallardo leading the org in IP from ‘21-‘22 out of the pandemic as the youngest OD full season SP, among the youngest in the sport, and how they’ve let pretty much the whole low minors arms rack up sometimes even more BBs than Ks in service of strength and conditioning rather than babying arms

I do agree with your overall point that the Cubs seem alright at avoiding the major arm surgeries like TJ, but think what we see as babying as individualized programs that considers their background , overall strength and conditioning, the pandemic’s multi-year impact on development etc 

The Cubs do have internal limits, I'm about 100% on this. Even using Gallardo's season you mentioned...he went over 5 IP...once. 7 times he left after the 5th. Look at Horton's IP, last year. Consistently 4 until June. Then, 5IP or 4IP. Regardless of PC. Wicks? Not over 5 once (despite him going well over 5 a few times in the MLB). Birdsell went 5 or less in every start except one. Ben Brown made 6 twice. But those are kind of the only examples I can find of truly MLB upside guys going over 5.  I really don't think it's an accident we see the cut off at 5 for MiLB arms and there's a pretty definite pattern org wide. Basically, guys with MLB upside just don't go more than 5 IP in the Cubs system outside of rare examples. I do know there's a "pitch limit" per inning which is around 30. We see guys get yanked consistently across the org on this one. Struggle in the first with walks, and you won't get any more. They definitely watch this which also makes me feel the 5IP thing is real.

I think the Cubs have more than just innings limits. I do think they do well with programs, conditioning, and the like. But I think their underuse of the arms in the MiLB leading up to the MLB is a part of the equation, too. It's a full spectrum attempt to save pitchers from injury, IMO.

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

But I think their underuse of the arms in the MiLB leading up to the MLB is a part of the equation, too. It's a full spectrum attempt to save pitchers from injury, IMO.

Where we most relevantly disagree is this idea of underuse being part of their prevention strategy. Even intuitively we might all see how a yooth looking to eventually beat stiffer and stiffest physical competition won’t last long that way, and maybe as or more exposed to injury and rapidly declining performance moving up 

You’re maybe taking an approach where throwing 5 professional innings at increasingly high levels of comp is a small task and the team is capping to essentially save bullets, but given that throwing 5 was happening less even before the 2020 shutdown maybe the assumption so soon after should be that it’s tough, something most MiLB will and do struggle to do. Sure Horton’s workload seems stifled by the 5 IP start criteria but 88.1 IP into AA after 53.2 and a TJ would hardly be seen as babied in the wider baseball world now even smart. Ferris just went from whatever his HS senior year was to just under 60 full season innings as a teenager. These are big gains!

3 year College arms like Wicks are a different bucket. The NCAA’s winning first, development second plus unpaid with worse coaching, food, often facilities so those players have taken a beating. Wicks even missed time in 2022 to an elbow injury, ultimately matched his college workload, and then threw 120-130 healthy this year. That’s a nice meaty jump, especially with a new mix and getting to put the elbow behind him 

SPs aren’t the only ones getting their work in too. One of my favorite 2.0 MiLB pitching storylines is how often guys with reliever outlooks throw. Whether Ethan Roberts, Johzan Oquendo, logging multi-inning outings, Luke Little and Palencia start in the low minors, Cam Sanders, Starlyn Pichardo, Koen Moreno working all over. It’s just not a babying thing, and definitely not in the spirit of less use being safer and less risky 

I’d also throw out that no org at any level of pro ball anytime recently is keen on 30+ pitch innings for pitchers. It’s not a Cubs or even MiLB exclusive thing 

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Where we most relevantly disagree is this idea of underuse being part of their prevention strategy. Even intuitively we might all see how a yooth looking to eventually beat stiffer and stiffest physical competition won’t last long that way, and maybe as or more exposed to injury and rapidly declining performance moving up 

You’re maybe taking an approach where throwing 5 professional innings at increasingly high levels of comp is a small task and the team is capping to essentially save bullets, but given that throwing 5 was happening less even before the 2020 shutdown maybe the assumption so soon after should be that it’s tough, something most MiLB will and do struggle to do. Sure Horton’s workload seems stifled by the 5 IP start criteria but 88.1 IP into AA after 53.2 and a TJ would hardly be seen as babied in the wider baseball world now even smart. Ferris just went from whatever his HS senior year was to just under 60 full season innings as a teenager. These are big gains!

3 year College arms like Wicks are a different bucket. The NCAA’s winning first, development second plus unpaid with worse coaching, food, often facilities so those players have taken a beating. Wicks even missed time in 2022 to an elbow injury, ultimately matched his college workload, and then threw 120-130 healthy this year. That’s a nice meaty jump, especially with a new mix and getting to put the elbow behind him 

SPs aren’t the only ones getting their work in too. One of my favorite 2.0 MiLB pitching storylines is how often guys with reliever outlooks throw. Whether Ethan Roberts, Johzan Oquendo, logging multi-inning outings, Luke Little and Palencia start in the low minors, Cam Sanders, Starlyn Pichardo, Koen Moreno working all over. It’s just not a babying thing, and definitely not in the spirit of less use being safer and less risky 

I’d also throw out that no org at any level of pro ball anytime recently is keen on 30+ pitch innings for pitchers. It’s not a Cubs or even MiLB exclusive thing 

We'll just have to interpret what we're seeing differently, then. 

And for the record: when I say they "baby" their arms, I don't mean it as a negative. Quite the opposite...I think the Cubs have done a great job of understanding modern pitchers in making sure they don't throw innings that are superfluous to their development.

I agree with 1908, the Cubs are very careful with their pitchers, for good reason.  Pitch count, innings limit, pitch-per-inning, rest between starts, I don't imagine that's unique or rare.  I assume what Cubs do is relatively routine in the industry.  

And I agree with 1908, I think it works, in terms of injury protection.  We have NOT been plagued with surgery for good rotation prospects.  So, I am not super nervous about Ferris needing TJ anytime soon.  

Cubs prospect arm surgeries have increased ten-fold since they actually started drafting and signing live arms and since the pitch lab began cranking up the spin and velo. For almost a decade they took nothing but crap pitchability/low-risk guys. I think a pitcher's arm will either hold up or it won't. Baby it all you want - all it takes is one pitch. Strasburg is a good example. Recently Andrew Painter is another, and there are tons more.

Given the lack of high-ceiling rotation prospects in the lower system (well, in the system as a whole), I would have Ferris untouchable in trades.  Don't think his trade value is huge enough to justify the loss of potential.  

Teams don't do 1-for-1 trade of asset starters with ≥3 years of good-value cost control.  The long-term value he'd bring in trade just doesn't justify including him in a trade.  

Obviously keeping him is risky, and his value may well go down.  Control may never come, nor the hypothetical added velocity.  So of course there is risk that NOT trading now will end up with less value than if you do.  

But I want to hold onto low-minors guys like him and Gray who have a chance to blossom into good asset rotation starters down the road.