tommorow by noon

[Blueheart05]

For his career Frucal has a 78% SB/CS.

 

If one wants to say the break even rate is 75% then his speed is slighlty valuable as it relates to stolen bases. If one wants to use 80% he has negative value, as it relates to stolen bases. So, perhaps his speed is marginally usefull.

 

Will his stolen base rate be this good in 4 or 5 years at the end of his contract?

 

The Cubs have Cedeno. People get upset that the Cubs never develop homegrown talent. Well they have one in Cedeno. What is Hendry doing? Efectively making Cedeno redundent. Before I hear the 2nd base stuff, you should know RONNY HAS NOT PLAYED ONE INNING AT 2ND BASE THIS WINTER.

 

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

 

Is BJ Ryan "worth" a 5 year 47 MM contract? Is Beltran worth the contract he received last year? You can add any name to that list and someone will say no. A baseball player's worth is based on the contract he can garner. If Furcal signs with a team for 13MM a year that will be his worth.

[Connor McConnor]

 

 

 

What percentage of innings does a leadoff hitter actually lead off?

 

I've often felt this was a valid point. The constant "leadoff hitter" blabbering seems silly. He's only guaranteed to lead off one inning.

 

The batting positions in front to of your big hitters is certainly important....but the "leadoff hitter" bit seems way overdone to me.

[UK1679666180]

Sure the leadoff hitter may only leadoff the inning 13.63%

Slight correction..

 

Furcal leadoff an inning over 40% of the time, he reached base on 13% of his total PAs, he didn't leadoff 13% of his total PAs.

Edited December 4, 2005 by UK

[Diffusion]

NY, come on, Furcal is a very good basestealer.

 

Trouble is, being a very good basestealer is secondary to being a very good hitter.

 

And Furcal isn't a very good hitter. Not even for a shortstop.

 

He's good, don't get me wrong, but he's not $9.7m better than Ronny good. He's not "make me the best paid hitter on the team" good. He's not "give me a longer deal than you've ever handed out to anyone before Jim" good.

 

He's also a very good defender. But then again so's Ronny.

Edited December 4, 2005 by Diffusion

[Ram1380]

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

 

 

----------------------------------------------------

 

 

13 $$$ in a vacuum, no.

 

 

 

10 or 11 when we are in the middle of our "window of opportunity" with the starting staff we have, are in desperate need of a leadoff hitter(OBP in general) AND he is a player entering his prime that brings Gold Glover calibur defense with him as well..............

 

 

 

then yes, IMO.

[oldcubsfan]

For his career Frucal has a 78% SB/CS.

 

If one wants to say the break even rate is 75% then his speed is slighlty valuable as it relates to stolen bases. If one wants to use 80% he has negative value, as it relates to stolen bases. So, perhaps his speed is marginally usefull.

 

Will his stolen base rate be this good in 4 or 5 years at the end of his contract?

 

The Cubs have Cedeno. People get upset that the Cubs never develop homegrown talent. Well they have one in Cedeno. What is Hendry doing? Efectively making Cedeno redundent. Before I hear the 2nd base stuff, you should know RONNY HAS NOT PLAYED ONE INNING AT 2ND BASE THIS WINTER.

 

I ask again is Furcal worth 13 million dollars?

For the Cubs to solve problems, he is worth a good amount, whatever that turns out to be. Your selective use of stats is entertaining, but not complete.

 

Help me see the light then.

 

How much is a good amount?

Select some stats that shows he is worth 13m a year?

 

Throw me a freaking bone

I guess you are right, he's a bum. We sure don't need him.

Everyone evaluates worth differently. DePo thought laughably that JD Drew was worth 55 mil for 5 years with his injury history. I guess while he collects his checks, while looking for a new career, he can say his numbers told him to do it. That's the problem with the selective use of stats. The whole world knows JD is fragile, but the stats said it was a good idea. Your use of a selective stat is the same thing.

[CubinNY]

NY, come on, Furcal is a very good basestealer.

So stipulated. Maya Culpa to everyone

 

Trouble is, being a very good basestealer is secondary to being a very good hitter.

agreed again

 

And Furcal isn't a very good hitter. Not even for a shortstop.

I'm a hittin what your a pitchin

 

He's good, don't get me wrong, but he's not $9.7m better than Ronny good. He's not "make me the best paid hitter on the team" good. He's not "give me a longer deal than you've ever handed out to anyone before Jim" good.

You have taken the words out of my computer See page 1 or 2 of this thread

 

He's also a very good defender. But then again so's Ronny.

If Hendry signs Furcal Ronny better get a subscription to Reader's Digest to keep him altert on the bench. He can really bone up on the

word power stuff. The quteable quotes he can give to Dusty as his are getting tired.

[Guest]

Okay, some more detailed numbers for NL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

% of PA's in which they led off innings (% of PA's in which they led off inning and got on-base)

 

Clark, 43.620% (16.320%)

Rollins, 43.443% (13.525%)

Counsell, 41.791% (13.731%)

Furcal, 41.655% (13.788%)

Reyes, 41.610% (11.869%)

Wilkerson, 40.696% (11.800%)

*Pierre, 40.612% (13.630%)

Eckstein, 40.252% (13.745%)

*Taveras, 39.055% (13.071%)

 

* Denotes that player spent enough time hitting down the order that it's perhaps worth noting

The final numbers:

 

Overall, hitters batting in the #1 spot lead off an inning in 39.5% of their PA in 2005. In the AL they lead off an inning 38.1% of the time, while in the NL they lead off an inning 40.7% of the time. Looks like I was right about the AL/NL difference. :)

[XZero771679666304]

NY, come on, Furcal is a very good basestealer.

 

Trouble is, being a very good basestealer is secondary to being a very good hitter.

 

And Furcal isn't a very good hitter. Not even for a shortstop.

 

He's good, don't get me wrong, but he's not $9.7m better than Ronny good. He's not "make me the best paid hitter on the team" good. He's not "give me a longer deal than you've ever handed out to anyone before Jim" good.

 

He's also a very good defender. But then again so's Ronny.

 

Unfortunately Hendry re-signed Neifi so we have to take into account that we may not be comparing Furcal to Cedeno, but Furcal to Perez. Is having Furcal at such an elevated price worth keeping Neifi out of the leadoff slot? It sure the hell is.

 

Having Perez/Cedeno at SS/2B is a scenario that cannot happen if the Cubs are to win. Walker is trade bait, and I would be stunned if he is back next year. That is wrong, but all indications are that it is the case.

 

It's a sad situation, but it is what it is.

[oldcubsfan]

I hope Cedeno is better than DuBois, Choi, Hill, Kelton, whoever that rule 5 relief pitcher that everyone loved-Jason (MIT)?, turned out to be.

But when you have a huge hole to fill, I'll take a proven player rather than rolling the dice.

[CubinNY]

I guess you are right, he's a bum. We sure don't need him.

Everyone evaluates worth differently. DePo thought laughably that JD Drew was worth 55 mil for 5 years with his injury history. I guess while he collects his checks, while looking for a new career, he can say his numbers told him to do it. That's the problem with the selective use of stats. The whole world knows JD is fragile, but the stats said it was a good idea. Your use of a selective stat is the same thing.

 

I never said he was a bum. He is a good SS but I think not worth 13 mill a year when the Cubs have a SS who can produce a large fraction of his output for a small fraction of his price.

 

Let me ask you a question

 

Do you go to the doctor?

 

just bare with me, I promise not to insult you in any way.

[UK1679666180]

I guess you are right, he's a bum. We sure don't need him.

Everyone evaluates worth differently. DePo thought laughably that JD Drew was worth 55 mil for 5 years with his injury history. I guess while he collects his checks, while looking for a new career, he can say his numbers told him to do it. That's the problem with the selective use of stats. The whole world knows JD is fragile, but the stats said it was a good idea. Your use of a selective stat is the same thing.

 

I fail to see a significant separation between overpaying by overlooking injury history or overpaying for lack of production.

 

As we witnessed with Drew's injuries, it hurt his production per $ spent. He was productive while he was out there, just not out there nearly enough.

 

As far as Furcal, he'll be out there, but I doubt if these contract rumors have validity, that he'll be worth what his contract requires.

 

But, overpaying for injuries and overpaying for lack of production are both overpaying.

[oldcubsfan]

I guess you are right, he's a bum. We sure don't need him.

Everyone evaluates worth differently. DePo thought laughably that JD Drew was worth 55 mil for 5 years with his injury history. I guess while he collects his checks, while looking for a new career, he can say his numbers told him to do it. That's the problem with the selective use of stats. The whole world knows JD is fragile, but the stats said it was a good idea. Your use of a selective stat is the same thing.

 

I never said he was a bum. He is a good SS but I think not worth 13 mill a year when the Cubs have a SS who can produce a large fraction of his output for a small fraction of his price.

 

Let me ask you a question

 

Do you go to the doctor?

 

just bare with me, I promise not to insult you in any way.

What the heck does that mean?

BTW, how do you know what Cedeno will produce?

[CubinNY]

I hope Cedeno is better than DuBois, Choi, Hill, Kelton, whoever that rule 5 relief pitcher that everyone loved-Jason (MIT)?, turned out to be.

But when you have a huge hole to fill, I'll take a proven player rather than rolling the dice.

 

Ronny is murding the pitching in Venzeula this Winter. I'd say he is going to be able to fill SS if need be.

[UK1679666180]

Okay, some more detailed numbers for NL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

% of PA's in which they led off innings (% of PA's in which they led off inning and got on-base)

 

Clark, 43.620% (16.320%)

Rollins, 43.443% (13.525%)

Counsell, 41.791% (13.731%)

Furcal, 41.655% (13.788%)

Reyes, 41.610% (11.869%)

Wilkerson, 40.696% (11.800%)

*Pierre, 40.612% (13.630%)

Eckstein, 40.252% (13.745%)

*Taveras, 39.055% (13.071%)

 

* Denotes that player spent enough time hitting down the order that it's perhaps worth noting

The final numbers:

 

Overall, hitters batting in the #1 spot lead off an inning in 39.5% of their PA in 2005. In the AL they lead off an inning 38.1% of the time, while in the NL they lead off an inning 40.7% of the time. Looks like I was right about the AL/NL difference. :)

 

Since I'm lazy, I'm wondering what some of the higher OBPs also generated like Giles, Lee, Pujols, Helton, etc?

[oldcubsfan]

I hope Cedeno is better than DuBois, Choi, Hill, Kelton, whoever that rule 5 relief pitcher that everyone loved-Jason (MIT)?, turned out to be.

But when you have a huge hole to fill, I'll take a proven player rather than rolling the dice.

 

Ronny is murding the pitching in Venzeula this Winter. I'd say he is going to be able to fill SS if need be.

Yeah, I'm glad he's hitting, but do you equate the Venezeula league with the majors?

[Guest]

Okay, some more detailed numbers for NL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

% of PA's in which they led off innings (% of PA's in which they led off inning and got on-base)

 

Clark, 43.620% (16.320%)

Rollins, 43.443% (13.525%)

Counsell, 41.791% (13.731%)

Furcal, 41.655% (13.788%)

Reyes, 41.610% (11.869%)

Wilkerson, 40.696% (11.800%)

*Pierre, 40.612% (13.630%)

Eckstein, 40.252% (13.745%)

*Taveras, 39.055% (13.071%)

 

* Denotes that player spent enough time hitting down the order that it's perhaps worth noting

The final numbers:

 

Overall, hitters batting in the #1 spot lead off an inning in 39.5% of their PA in 2005. In the AL they lead off an inning 38.1% of the time, while in the NL they lead off an inning 40.7% of the time. Looks like I was right about the AL/NL difference. :)

 

Since I'm lazy, I'm wondering what some of the higher OBPs also generated like Giles, Lee, Pujols, Helton, etc?

Do you mean those players themselves or the players hitting behind those players?

[CubinNY]

What is the first thing that happens when you go to the doctor?

 

Either the nurse or the doctor takes your vital signs

 

weight

pulse

blood pressure

 

Measurement is key in almost eveything.

 

In medicine measurement is the key to success

In business measurement is the key to success

In education measurement is the key to success

In baseball measuremnt is the key to success

[UK1679666180]

In a similar format as Diffusion used. I'm just trying to gauge whether their role in the offense impacted their ratio of getting on-base to leadoff an inning.

[RockTheIvy]

What is the first thing that happens when you go to the doctor?

 

Either the nurse or the doctor takes your vital signs

 

weight

pulse

blood pressure

 

Measurement is key in almost eveything.

 

In medicine measurement is the key to success

In business measurement is the key to success

In education measurement is the key to success

In baseball measuremnt is the key to success

 

I thought it was scoring runs? :lol:

 

FWIW, and not to be a jerk, but it's Mea Culpa

[Diffusion]

Okay, some more detailed numbers for NL leadoff hitters in 2005...

 

% of PA's in which they led off innings (% of PA's in which they led off inning and got on-base)

 

Clark, 43.620% (16.320%)

Rollins, 43.443% (13.525%)

Counsell, 41.791% (13.731%)

Furcal, 41.655% (13.788%)

Reyes, 41.610% (11.869%)

Wilkerson, 40.696% (11.800%)

*Pierre, 40.612% (13.630%)

Eckstein, 40.252% (13.745%)

*Taveras, 39.055% (13.071%)

 

* Denotes that player spent enough time hitting down the order that it's perhaps worth noting

The final numbers:

 

Overall, hitters batting in the #1 spot lead off an inning in 39.5% of their PA in 2005. In the AL they lead off an inning 38.1% of the time, while in the NL they lead off an inning 40.7% of the time. Looks like I was right about the AL/NL difference. :)

 

Bob, you rule. You find out all sorts of stuff that I have no idea how to work out.

 

I would be HUGELY interested in a base/out breakdown for every single lineup position for, say, 2003-05.

 

EG, how often did an NL hitter batting seventh come up with men on first and third with two outs for 2003-05?

 

If you want to PM me that kind of stuff, or link to a place where I can work it out for myself, that'd be awesome.

[CubinNY]

I hope Cedeno is better than DuBois, Choi, Hill, Kelton, whoever that rule 5 relief pitcher that everyone loved-Jason (MIT)?, turned out to be.

But when you have a huge hole to fill, I'll take a proven player rather than rolling the dice.

 

Ronny is murding the pitching in Venzeula this Winter. I'd say he is going to be able to fill SS if need be.

Yeah, I'm glad he's hitting, but do you equate the Venezeula league with the majors?

 

It is roughly the equavelent to AA and AAA. But more importantly it shows a consistent history of production. Certianly no guarentee that he will be good at the ML but at least a safe bet to be given a shot at an everyday position.

[CubinNY]

What is the first thing that happens when you go to the doctor?

 

Either the nurse or the doctor takes your vital signs

 

weight

pulse

blood pressure

 

Measurement is key in almost eveything.

 

In medicine measurement is the key to success

In business measurement is the key to success

In education measurement is the key to success

In baseball measuremnt is the key to success

 

I thought it was scoring runs? :lol:

 

FWIW, and not to be a jerk, but it's Mea Culpa

 

Thanks my spelling is bad and I am a bit tipsy.

[Diffusion]

I hope Cedeno is better than DuBois, Choi, Hill, Kelton, whoever that rule 5 relief pitcher that everyone loved-Jason (MIT)?, turned out to be.

But when you have a huge hole to fill, I'll take a proven player rather than rolling the dice.

 

Ronny is murding the pitching in Venzeula this Winter. I'd say he is going to be able to fill SS if need be.

 

For the record, he's hitting .357/.396/.429 in 98 at-bats in Venezuela.

 

All batting average, sadly. Come on Ronny, more patience, more power.

[RockTheIvy]

What is the first thing that happens when you go to the doctor?

 

Either the nurse or the doctor takes your vital signs

 

weight

pulse

blood pressure

 

Measurement is key in almost eveything.

 

In medicine measurement is the key to success

In business measurement is the key to success

In education measurement is the key to success

In baseball measuremnt is the key to success

 

I thought it was scoring runs? :lol:

 

FWIW, and not to be a jerk, but it's Mea Culpa

 

Thanks my spelling is bad and I am a bit tipsy.

 

Haha, fantastic!