BA's Top 10 - Discussion

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Here is BA's top 10.

 

Chat tomorrow.

 

1. Felix Pie

2. Mark Pawelek

3. Ronnie Cedeno

4. Angel Guzman

5. Rich Hill

6. Sean Marshall

7. Ricky Nolasco

8. Ryan Harvey

9. Brian Dopirak

10. Eric Patterson

[Laura]

Veal and Gallagher didn't make it, I figured there was a good chance Gallagher wouldn't make BA's list.

 

Koronka gets some love for his changeup!

 

Here's the Tools list:

 

Best Hitter for Average Felix Pie

Best Power Hitter Ryan Harvey

Best Strike-Zone Discipline Sam Fuld

Fastest Baserunner Dwaine Bacon

Best Athlete Felix Pie

Best Fastball Mark Pawelek

Best Curveball Rich Hill

Best Slider Grant Johnson

Best Changeup John Koronka

Best Control Ricky Nolasco

Best Defensive Catcher Geovany Soto

Best Defensive Infielder Ronny Cedeno

Best Infield Arm Ronny Cedeno

Best Defensive Outfielder Felix Pie

Best Outfield Arm Ryan Harvey

[Transmogrified Tiger]

140 points, who's got me beat.

 

I'm surprised Gallagher didn't even crack the top 10. What's their knock on him?

[Tim]

140 points, who's got me beat.

 

I'm surprised Gallagher didn't even crack the top 10. What's their knock on him?

I don't know about the points, but I'm really glad I put out my list before I saw BA's this year.

[Laura]

BTW, the correct chat time = 11 AM CT Monday.

[WrigleyField 22]

I got 122.

I took some risky guesses (Moore) that didn't pay off. Oh well.

[NCCubFan]

140 points, who's got me beat.

(Raises hand) 148 here (assuming I tabulated correctly). Eight of the top 10 identified (I had Pinto and Gallagher instead of Marshall and Nolasco), with Pie, Pawelek, Cedeno, and Hill in the correct positions and Dopirak and Patterson one position higher than BA.

[TXCubsFan]

Why the love for Marshall over Veal or Pinto?

[Outshined_One]

I'm surprised Gallagher didn't even crack the top 10. What's their knock on him?

 

He's not that projectable, despite putting up good stats in Peoria and Daytona. His fastball (88-90) and change both project to be average at best and his curve could get pounded at higher levels.

 

He could hone these pitches, but, physically, he's already fully grown according to most reports.

 

Should be interesting to see how he handles better hitters, though.

[Laura]

143 for me

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm surprised Gallagher didn't even crack the top 10. What's their knock on him?

 

He's not that projectable, despite putting up good stats in Peoria and Daytona. His fastball (88-90) and change both project to be average at best and his curve could get pounded at higher levels.

 

He could hone these pitches, but, physically, he's already fully grown according to most reports.

 

Should be interesting to see how he handles better hitters, though.

 

Interesting, I thought his fastball was better, and I guess I just assumed he had better secondary pitches because of his success.

[Outshined_One]

I believe mine is 161.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I got 166 for you O_O. Good work.

[Tim]

I should have entered. I believe I would have scored 173.

[Outshined_One]

I got 166 for you O_O. Good work.

 

BA's predictable. :D

 

When they're evaluating prospects, they take the following into account, in order:

 

1) Ceiling

2) Rarity of player type (C, SS, CF, LHP)

3) Floor

4) Injuries/Setbacks

5) Statistical success

 

3 and 4 kind of go together. A guy who has an injury or developmental setback (Marshall, Guzman, Dopirak) will thereby lower his floor. The highest ceilings in the system are arguably Pie, Pawelek, Guzman, Harvey, and Dopirak in that order. Even though three of them slumped or were injured, they were still ranked due to their ceilings.

 

What had me curious was Veal's lack of a ranking. He was given the #2 overall prospect status in the NWL Top 20 and has quite a nice ceiling, from my understanding. It could be that his velocity is still in question, though.

 

Wouldn't surprise me if he was ranked somewhere in the 11-15 range, though.

[CubinNY]

Why do people rate Pawelek so high? He's only pitched in short season and didn't use all of his pitches?

 

I'm not acusing, I'm asking. It would seem to me that this pick is based on entirely on promise.

 

I wouldn't rank a player at least until a full season of professional baseball.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Why do people rate Pawelek so high? He's only pitched in short season and didn't use all of his pitches?

 

I'm not acusing, I'm asking. It would seem to me that this pick is based on entirely on promise.

 

I wouldn't rank a player at least until a full season of professional baseball.

 

Ceiling and potential plus his success in Mesa.

 

BA will rank anyone who has signed with the organization.

[Outshined_One]

I got both of my questions answered. :D

 

But I sent both in late last night. Go figure.

[goonys evil twin]

chat highlights?

[Outshined_One]

chat highlights?

 

Main highlights:

 

-Harvey has a lot to work on before he can put up .280/35/100 numbers

-Pie will be ranked in the 20-41 range in the Top 100.

-Soto and Mark Reed are the closest things to "catchers of the future".

-Pawelek has a tremendous ceiling.

-Cedeno should make a solid regular.

-Veal's stuff was down a little and he was farther away than most of the other pitchers, but could jump into the Top 10 next season.

-Marmol is just outside the top ten.

-Pinto needs to work on his pitch location.

-Murton, if ranked, would be at 2 or 3, ahead of or behind Pawly.

-Dope is expected to head to AA next season.

-Sing was ranked below Dope due to age considerations and ceiling.

-Guys to look out for next season: Yusuf Carter, Dylan Johnston, Johnny Defendis, Michael Phelps, and Mike Billek

-Gallagher was outside the Top 10 due to his average stuff.

-Petrick is a wait and see case since his surgery is troubling.

-Fuld is comparable to Greenberg.

-Brownlie does not = Sisco in terms of rostering.

-JVB could become a good 6th/7th inning guy.

-Cubs minor league system is above average, but should slip out of the Top 10.

-Moore needs time before he can be considered ready.

-Gooze was ranked so high because of his tremendous ceiling.

-Cubs draft BPA, which typically results in them getting high schoolers more often than not.

-Pie needs time in the minors to mature.

-Montanez needs to hit in AA or AAA in order to prove this past season was not a fluke.

-E-Patt is legit, although he needs to work on his D.

-Aardsma needs to straighten himself out since his stuff has fallen off the table.

-Grant Johnson played with a pulled quad that slowed him down this past season, so he's a wait and see guy.

-Berg and Blackford are both "interesting" pitchers.

-JK Ryu has the ceiling of a #3.

-Rohlicek could be a decent LOOGY.

-Hill could start for the Cubs next season out of ST, but that's not a given.

-Lewis and Fontenot should round out the Top 30.

 

There ya go. Shorter chat than I expected.

[WrigleyField 22]

Cubs draft BPA, which typically results in them getting high schoolers more often than not.

 

What does BPA mean?

[CubinNY]

Cubs draft BPA, which typically results in them getting high schoolers more often than not.

 

What does BPA mean?

 

best player available

[WrigleyField 22]

I noticed that BA rated Soto as best defensive catcher. I thought Reyes was supposed to be the best defensive catcher we had.

 

Anyone who has seen them play care to give their opinion?

[Mizzou]

140 points, who's got me beat.

 

 

Ahem. I know what you regular minor league forum contributors are saying to yourselves in light of me winning the contest... and the answer is yes, I'll gladly share my incredibly insightful thoughts with you on a more consistent basis. :lol: I can't believe I won. I guess I know more about the minor leaguers than I thought!

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Here is a picture of the latest BA issue. It should be on bookshelves around the 4th of December.

 

http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/5756/picture0016uz.jpg

http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/1825/picture3xi.jpg

 

As you can see, along with the top 10 listings there is also a page long article on the rise and fall of the Cubs farm system. I haven't read the article yet but it looks interesting.