Why wouldn't you sign Brian Giles?

[RockTheIvy]

We all know about Giles' upsides. He has a tremendous batting eye, walks a ton, left handed, plays good defense. But if you were going to pass on him, as it looks like Hendry might do, why would you? Age? Declining skills? And if you wouldn't sign him, who would you get to replace JerOmy in right?

 

I just thought it might be interesting to hear the arguments against signing Giles.

[fiver]

Length of proposed contract

Amount per Year in proposed contract

Age

Diminishing skill level

 

You can find your answer in many threads on the board already.

[WrigleyinEngland]

My only concearn is his age but other than that he is a perfect fit, I would up the money if he was willing to take 2 years + 2 option years.

[JeffH]

I really want Giles, but I can understand how team leadership may not think it necessary to add another .900+ OPS guy to the lineup, preferring instead to "spread it around", improve the woeful top of the batting order, make the team deeper, and improve the pitching. The Cubs do have two of the top 12-15 offensive players in the NL already, which is twice its share.

 

This is, after all, a team that had 35% of its 2005 plate appearances made by Neifi Perez, Corey Patterson, Jerry Hairston, Todd Hollandsworth, Jose Macias, and Jason Dubois.

 

If you replace a good portion of that 35% with, for example, Rafael Furcal, Juan Pierre, Brad Wilkerson, Kevin Mench, and Matt Murton, you may be enough better offensively to do some damage, even if you do lose Todd Walker.

 

That said, sign Giles!

[BigbadB]

Meanwhile, the Yankees are so concerned about his diminishing skills, they're willing to give him their CF job. After Bernie Williams was horrible for the last few years defensively, they think highly enough of him to stick him in CF.

[katway]

If one places themselves in Hendry's shoes, you mention one quick reason in declining skill with age, but he also may be thinking Gile's salary is ultimately going to be too high for production and a large chunk of payroll (thereby limiting future flexibility), and may need to find a place for Brandon Sing (or another prospect he may be high on) pretty soon. Those are some thoughts he may have without commenting on their validity.

[JeffH]

Whether or not we want the Cubs to sign Giles, let's not use what the Yankees do as any sort of gauge as to what a normal team ought to do.

 

If they sign Giles for three or four years and his balky shoulder puts him on the DL for 75% of the contract (not likely, but possible), they'll just write it off and go get somebody else.

[goonys evil twin]

If his contract goes away from the 3/30 range and closer to the 5/60 range, then you are justified staying away.

 

Other than that, you're incompetent if you don't get involved.

[BigbadB]

If one places themselves in Hendry's shoes, you mention one quick reason in declining skill with age, but he also may be thinking Gile's salary is ultimately going to be too high for production and a large chunk of payroll (thereby limiting future flexibility), and may need to find a place for Brandon Sing (or another prospect he may be high on) pretty soon. Those are some thoughts he may have without commenting on their validity.

 

$20m can free up next year with Maddux and Wood off the books. If Pie replaced Pierre or some other arby eligible CF, you have freed up money there too.

 

If you went with Cedeno at SS rather than Furcal, once again you have a huge savings there for the next several years. Pie, Murton and Cedeno (if all pan out and become major league regulars) make it where you can sign a guy like Giles.

[nick23]

Meanwhile, the Yankees are so concerned about his diminishing skills, they're willing to give him their CF job. After Bernie Williams was horrible for the last few years defensively, they think highly enough of him to stick him in CF.

They were also willing to give Tony Womack their CF job last year.

[TheDude]

I think the fact he'll be 38, maybe 39 at the end of the contract is a big part of the problem for Hendry. He definately has an aversion to the aged player, preferring to play the odds and ignore the exceptions.

[SouthSideRyan]

Not understanding park factors.

[RynoRules]

Whether or not we want the Cubs to sign Giles, let's not use what the Yankees do as any sort of gauge as to what a normal team ought to do.

 

If they sign Giles for three or four years and his balky shoulder puts him on the DL for 75% of the contract (not likely, but possible), they'll just write it off and go get somebody else.

 

What he said. And BTW, I forgot to note post no. 1,000 by yours truly. Good stuff. I love it here.

[goonys evil twin]

He definately has an aversion to the aged player, preferring to play the odds and ignore the exceptions.

 

What evidence do you have to back that claim up? Hendry loves old ballplayers. He was, by all accounts, behind the Alou and Remlinger signings, he went hard after Maddux. He obviously likes older bench players, choosing to guarantee mediocrity rather than risk failure in the pursuit of greatness.

[JeffH]

It does seem that Hendry has learned a lesson about older players from his recent experiences.

 

Almost all of the players he's been rumored to be interested in this offseason are twenty somethings.

 

It's a shame that said lesson learned might keep him away from Giles.

[TheDude]

He definately has an aversion to the aged player, preferring to play the odds and ignore the exceptions.

 

What evidence do you have to back that claim up? Hendry loves old ballplayers. He was, by all accounts, behind the Alou and Remlinger signings, he went hard after Maddux. He obviously likes older bench players, choosing to guarantee mediocrity rather than risk failure in the pursuit of greatness.

 

Show me a longterm contract Hendry worked out with a position player 35 years old or older.

 

[edit - veteran bench players are different, as they have limited playing time.]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He definately has an aversion to the aged player, preferring to play the odds and ignore the exceptions.

 

What evidence do you have to back that claim up? Hendry loves old ballplayers. He was, by all accounts, behind the Alou and Remlinger signings, he went hard after Maddux. He obviously likes older bench players, choosing to guarantee mediocrity rather than risk failure in the pursuit of greatness.

 

Show me a longterm contract Hendry worked out with a player 35 years old or older.

 

Remlinger.

[HoopsCubs]

If his contract goes away from the 3/30 range and closer to the 5/60 range, then you are justified staying away.

 

Other than that, you're incompetent if you don't get involved.

 

Unless, Giles and his agent have already told Hendry, that they will not get involved in any talks with the Cubs until their other avenues have been exhausted (Yankees, Cards, Braves, Dodgers, Angels).

 

This is the point I've been trying to make. If Giles' motivation for signing is a weighted contribution of wanting the best chance to play for a consitent winner, the best available money, some proximity to the West Coast and playing with his brother, the Cubs don't have a chance in that equation.

 

Best chance to win = Yankees, Cards, Braves and Angels

Best money = Yankees, Angels, Cubs, Mets

Proximity to West Coast = Dodgers, Angels, Giants, A's

Playing with his brother = Braves or the team he's traded to

 

The only way he comes here is that the "best money" component dwarfs everything else in his decision making process and the Yankees back off, or there is another key factor that hasn't been discussed in his motivation.

 

Hoops

[goonys evil twin]

He definately has an aversion to the aged player, preferring to play the odds and ignore the exceptions.

 

What evidence do you have to back that claim up? Hendry loves old ballplayers. He was, by all accounts, behind the Alou and Remlinger signings, he went hard after Maddux. He obviously likes older bench players, choosing to guarantee mediocrity rather than risk failure in the pursuit of greatness.

 

Show me a longterm contract Hendry worked out with a player 35 years old or older.

 

Greg Maddux and Mike Remlinger.

 

Moises was signed while Hendry was the asst GM, and he was reportedly a big part of making that signing.

[goonys evil twin]

Unless, Giles and his agent have already told Hendry, that they will not get involved in any talks with the Cubs until their other avenues have been exhausted (Yankees, Cards, Braves, Dodgers, Angels).

 

This is the point I've been trying to make. If Giles' motivation for signing is a weighted contribution of wanting the best chance to play for a consitent winner, the best available money, some proximity to the West Coast and playing with his brother, the Cubs don't have a chance in that equation.

 

I don't buy that for a second.

 

You think there's any chance an agent will tell a big market team with a top payroll that they won't entertain any offers from them until everybody else drops out? That's about the worst possible strategy, and most unrealistic scenario that could play out in this mess.

 

There is no excuse not to get in on the Giles talks, and there is no reason to try and search for excuses.

[HoopsCubs]

Unless, Giles and his agent have already told Hendry, that they will not get involved in any talks with the Cubs until their other avenues have been exhausted (Yankees, Cards, Braves, Dodgers, Angels).

 

This is the point I've been trying to make. If Giles' motivation for signing is a weighted contribution of wanting the best chance to play for a consitent winner, the best available money, some proximity to the West Coast and playing with his brother, the Cubs don't have a chance in that equation.

 

I don't buy that for a second.

 

You think there's any chance an agent will tell a big market team with a top payroll that they won't entertain any offers from them until everybody else drops out? That's about the worst possible strategy, and most unrealistic scenario that could play out in this mess.

 

There is no excuse not to get in on the Giles talks, and there is no reason to try and search for excuses.

 

I don't buy what you are saying either. If Giles specifically told his agent that he wants to play for the Yankees, Cards, Angels or Dodgers, I guarantee you Bick wouldn't bother talking to the Cubs, Mets, Tigers or Mariners in the initial rounds. Several teams could have afforded Hideki Matsui too. According to Bruce Levine, Arn Tellem didn't talk to anybody except the Yankees.

[goonys evil twin]

I don't buy what you are saying either. If Giles specifically told his agent that he wants to play for the Yankees, Cards, Angels or Dodgers, I guarantee you Bick wouldn't bother talking to the Cubs, Mets, Tigers or Mariners in the initial rounds. Several teams could have afforded Hideki Matsui too. According to Bruce Levine, Arn Tellem didn't talk to anybody except the Yankees.

 

Totally different. Hideki was a Yankee. He always wanted to be a Yankee and made that quite clear when he first came over, and throughout his Yankee career. He stayed with his own team. There is no possible way that the agent would refuse to listen to the Cubs, that would be as incompetent as Hendry refusing to talk to Giles's agent.

 

Why are you trying so hard to search for excuses for Hendry not to fill the biggest need? When players have specific teams they refuse to consider, that stuff leaks out there, and that is usually either the Yankees, or any number of screwed up small market teams like Nationexpos, DRays, Pirates.

 

I don't get how you can't buy what I'm saying. I'm just thinking rationally, not digging up storylines with nothing to back them up. I'm not trying to stir up controversy where it doesn't exist, or completely distort the truth. Giles fills the Cubs biggest hole. He's an obvious candidate for signing. Contract rumors are not yet out of hand. Hendry would be completely incompetent if he wasn't trying to talk to the agent. Even if he didn't receive an initially warm reception he would be failing the team by not trying to acquire the best possible player he could get to fill the biggest problem on the team. You don't have to create ficticious storylines to see the logic there.

[The Voice of Reason]

Unless, Giles and his agent have already told Hendry, that they will not get involved in any talks with the Cubs until their other avenues have been exhausted (Yankees, Cards, Braves, Dodgers, Angels).

 

This is the point I've been trying to make. If Giles' motivation for signing is a weighted contribution of wanting the best chance to play for a consitent winner, the best available money, some proximity to the West Coast and playing with his brother, the Cubs don't have a chance in that equation.

 

I don't buy that for a second.

 

You think there's any chance an agent will tell a big market team with a top payroll that they won't entertain any offers from them until everybody else drops out? That's about the worst possible strategy, and most unrealistic scenario that could play out in this mess.

 

There is no excuse not to get in on the Giles talks, and there is no reason to try and search for excuses.

 

I don't buy what you are saying either. If Giles specifically told his agent that he wants to play for the Yankees, Cards, Angels or Dodgers, I guarantee you Bick wouldn't bother talking to the Cubs, Mets, Tigers or Mariners in the initial rounds. Several teams could have afforded Hideki Matsui too. According to Bruce Levine, Arn Tellem didn't talk to anybody except the Yankees.

 

Excellent points Hoops. The Cubs aren't even needed by the Giles people to drive his price up. Sadly, the Cubs have as much chance to get Giles as they did last year to get Beltran, i.e, NONE. That's why they are focusing on obtainable targets like Furcal, Pierre, Eyre and hopefully others.

[goonys evil twin]

Excellent points Hoops. The Cubs aren't even needed by the Giles people to drive his price up. Sadly, the Cubs have as much chance to get Giles as they did last year to get Beltran, i.e, NONE. That's why they are focusing on obtainable targets like Furcal, Pierre, Eyre and hopefully others.

 

Why? Why is he so unattainable for the Cubs, yet a half dozen other teams supposedly have a good shot? The only way they would have no chance to sign him is if they don't try to sign him. It's a self fulfilling prophecy when you assume you can't get a guy, so you don't even try to get a guy.

 

The Cubs could sign Giles if they wanted him. There is absolutely no evidence to support the theory that he'd refuse to play for the Cubs. If you show no interest, he's not going to beg you for it. Giles is obtainable, and taking the attitude that he is not is simply sealing your own fate with mediocrity, as usual.

[soapy]

Unless, Giles and his agent have already told Hendry, that they will not get involved in any talks with the Cubs until their other avenues have been exhausted (Yankees, Cards, Braves, Dodgers, Angels).

 

This is the point I've been trying to make. If Giles' motivation for signing is a weighted contribution of wanting the best chance to play for a consitent winner, the best available money, some proximity to the West Coast and playing with his brother, the Cubs don't have a chance in that equation.

 

I don't buy that for a second.

 

You think there's any chance an agent will tell a big market team with a top payroll that they won't entertain any offers from them until everybody else drops out? That's about the worst possible strategy, and most unrealistic scenario that could play out in this mess.

 

There is no excuse not to get in on the Giles talks, and there is no reason to try and search for excuses.

 

I don't buy what you are saying either. If Giles specifically told his agent that he wants to play for the Yankees, Cards, Angels or Dodgers, I guarantee you Bick wouldn't bother talking to the Cubs, Mets, Tigers or Mariners in the initial rounds. Several teams could have afforded Hideki Matsui too. According to Bruce Levine, Arn Tellem didn't talk to anybody except the Yankees.

 

Excellent points Hoops. The Cubs aren't even needed by the Giles people to drive his price up. Sadly, the Cubs have as much chance to get Giles as they did last year to get Beltran, i.e, NONE. That's why they are focusing on obtainable targets like Furcal, Pierre, Eyre and hopefully others.

 

I don't understand why people are assuming that the Cubs have no chance to sign Giles. Please explain. Something other than, "He wants to play on the west coast."