Furcal or Pierre?

[MPrior]

Oh, by the way, I totally agree about the bullpen thing. It seems to me that the tried and true method for a WS-caliber team is super-powerful offense paired with a lights out bullpen. Obviously it didn't work out that way this year, but each team had at least half that equation, with stellar starting pitching to pick up the offense's slack. I'm all about putting together a shut-down bullpen. As long as we get some offense to go with it.

[JeffH]

Milton Bradley, Brian Giles, Rafael Furcal, and B.J. Ryan.

 

Please.

[BigbadB]

Milton Bradley, Brian Giles, Rafael Furcal, and B.J. Ryan.

 

Please.

 

'Nuff Said. That's all you are planning on saying this entire offseason, isn't it? :D

[JeffH]

Well, it's early in the offseason, so I'm feeling especially optimistic.

[DivineBovine]

Scott Podsednik scored 80 runs this past year, which put him 68th in MLB in this category. Doesn't seem that great to me.

 

Is it really fair to compare Podsednik's runs scored to others, when Podsednik only played in 129 games?

 

Podsednik's runs scored would have been much higher if he played in more games. His runs scored would have been much higher if he had better production hitting behind him (after Konerko, there wasn't much else). That's what a .350+ OBP will get you. I don't like the caught stealings, which hurt the RBI chances behind him, but even with the caught stealing, he's far and away better than what the Cubs were throwing out there everyday.

 

The White Sox had a much better all around offense in 2004, therefore didn't need a key top of the order hitter like they did this year. Without Podsednik, they probably lose the division to Cleveland.

 

Here's why the 2004 offense was much better than the 2005 offense:

 

2005: guys with a better OBP than .335 (3)

2004: guys with a better OBP than .335 (7)

 

2005: guys with a better OBP than .350 (2)

2004: guys with a better OBP than .350 (6)

 

If you'd like to see a direct correlation between the White Sox poor offense and the Cubs poor offense, look no further than the OBP of guys who played everyday:

 

Pierzinski .308

Crede .303

Uribe .301

Everett .311

 

Patterson .254

Perez .298

Hollandsworth .301

Macias/Lawton/Burnitz/Blanco (combine these guys together for a below .300 OBP

 

You can't have a good offense when 1/2 of your offense hits like this. At least the White Sox maximized their line up for best overall production. The Cubs second best OBP guy last year (Murton) was getting on base regularly in the 6 hole for who? The two and three guys who SHOULD be the worst hitters on the team. Worst place to put a guy with a good OBP. It's the same thing Dusty did with Bellhorn. One of the best OBP guys on the team, and instead of expecting them to get on base like they are good at, Dusty wants them to drive in runs. Podsednik's value would be about as wasted as it could get hitting in front of Pierzinski and Crede rather than Iguchi, Konerko and Dye.

 

Of course, offense isn't what got the Sox to the playoffs in the first place. But, with the little offense they had, they scored the necessary runs to win more than they lost. Bottom line, make the best use of the players you have. Anything less will only hurt the teams chances.

 

Dusty's thought process? Let's hide the worst hitter on the team right in front of the best hitter on the team. How anyone in their right mind would even remotely consider this as a viable option for run scoring efficiency is beyond me. How many times would Lee have driven in Murton if he was hitting at the top of the order? How many times did Murton get stranded on base hitting 6th?

 

If you don't maximize your offense, you deserve the fate you receive. Like staying home come playoff time.

 

 

Excellent post. I really don't like it when stats lie SLG%, or any number of others are constantly being applied to players like Pierre or Podsednik.

 

The fact is, that the Cubs have tons of players who will not take a walk and have 3 pitch AB's.

 

And regarding the Caught Stealing criticisms, I don't agree with the way they are applied.

 

If a guy will attempt to steal 2B with 2 out to get in a position where he can score on a single in a tight game and a slap hitter at the plate, then go for it. So he gets thrown out. Risk worth reward. If a guy gets thrown out on a hit and run, fine. Risk worth reward. It's not like guys just steal without regard to the circumstances. It's not like guys are trying to steal 3B with 0 or 2 outs.

 

 

So the CS stats are too harshly applied as criticisms of guys like Pierre. The stats just don't take into account circumstances. And if they do, I'd like to know how.

 

In the leadoff spot, I care about OBP, OBP, OBP, then speed. Last is power. The Cubs have consistently crappy OBP for the past few years. They have consistently ranked high in power, reasonably high in average, and crappy in OBP. Given their SLG%, their Runs scored have been abysmal.

 

Pierre is the best option that I've heard. Then fill out the other corner with a OPS guy.

[BigbadB]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

 

i wonder what the effect of being a slap hitter is on BABIP.

 

Pierre reminds me too much of Neifi.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

 

i wonder what the effect of being a slap hitter is on BABIP.

 

Pierre reminds me too much of Neifi.

 

I don't know about slappiness, but generally guys with a ton of speed like Pierre should have a slightly above average BABIP(relative to expected) because they can beat more balls out, players rush plays to get them, etc.

[scs_paradise]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

 

is there anyone you have enough positive data for that you would want in center field???

[BigbadB]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

 

I'll take your word for it, but at the same time, why clog up centerfield anymore than you have to. You can use Lofton and Hairston in a platoon, you can use Lofton as a defensive replacement in any of the outfield spots late in a game. You can use him off the bench in a pinch hit role. You can use him as speed on the bases late in a game. You can hang on to Patterson and see if he gets things straightened out. You can trade him at the deadline like every other team in baseball has done. He won't cost anymore than 1.5-2m at the most. At that cost, he's nothing but value for the production he provides. If you get him as a free agent, you have a lot of possibilities in center with Lofton, Patterson, Hairston, Greenberg and Pie. Pierre would need to be traded for. Strike one. Pierre isn't a guy that would be used like Lofton could. Strike two. Lofton is coming off a season of .392 OBP compared to Pierre's .326. Strike three.

 

If I'm the GM of this team, I sign Lofton and Giles, retain Nomar and Hairston and sign one more guy to the bench and then focus anything else on pitching.

 

OF Giles, Murton, Lofton, Patterson, Hairston

IF Aramis, Nomar, Walker, Cedeno, Lee, corner IF bat

C Barrett, Blanco

 

Of the guys listed above, only Patterson and Blanco are risks to have OBP's below .340. If Patterson gets things straightened out, it would be great to have a bench of Lofton, Hairston, Cedeno and a guy like Hansen or Branyan. Offense is done. How much did it cost? Giles, Nomar, Lofton and the back up infielder would cost less than 20m.

 

Still plenty left over to make a push for Millwood or Burnett and Ryan or Howry.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If Pierre is guaranteed to give you a .360+ OBP, I might agree with you. But, his .326 OBP last year along with his 17 caught stealings makes him quite a risk.

 

It was his worst batting average since he came into the league, so it could be considered an off year.

 

Kenny Lofton is cheaper, provides a better OBP and doesn't get caught stealing very often. Lofton hit nearly as many doubles as Pierre in half the at bats. Pierre would cost us prospects.

 

I'll take Lofton.

 

Pierre was quite unlucky BABIP wise, especially for a guy with his speed. However, even at his best he's not that great, and he'll be overpriced in cash and players. Lofton, on the other hand, is the poster child for BABIP good fortune. I don't want either.

 

is there anyone you have enough positive data for that you would want in center field???

 

Wilkerson and Bradley are my two favorite choices. Lofton is about to fall off a cliff production wise, and Pierre just isn't a smart choice considering his down year and lack of upside. I'll also take Brady Clark, Drew, or Gary Matthews Jr.

 

EDIT: Jason Michaels, Ryan Church, and maybe even Dave Roberts would be good too.

[JeffH]

you can use Lofton as a defensive replacement in any of the outfield spots late in a game.

 

Lofton is no longer a plus defensive outfielder.

 

You can hang on to Patterson and see if he gets things straightened out. You can trade him at the deadline like every other team in baseball has done. He won't cost anymore than 1.5-2m at the most. At that cost, he's nothing but value for the production he provides.

 

You can't pay Patterson less than $2.24, unless you non-tender him, thus making him a free agent, and he chooses to re-sign with you for less than that figure.

[BigbadB]

you can use Lofton as a defensive replacement in any of the outfield spots late in a game.

 

Lofton is no longer a plus defensive outfielder.

 

You can hang on to Patterson and see if he gets things straightened out. You can trade him at the deadline like every other team in baseball has done. He won't cost anymore than 1.5-2m at the most. At that cost, he's nothing but value for the production he provides.

 

You can't pay Patterson less than $2.24, unless you non-tender him, thus making him a free agent, and he chooses to re-sign with you for less than that figure.

 

I thought he just had a suspect arm. I thought he still got to a lot of balls that a not so speedy outfielder couldn't.

 

I meant you can sign Lofton for 1.5-2m. Note the previous sentence where I stated we could trade him (Lofton) at the deadline like every other team in baseball has already done.

 

Lofton only took 1m to play for the Yankees the year we traded for him. He might come cheaper than 2m

[E.J.]

Anyone know anything about rotowarriors.com? They have a rumor that there's a proposed trade of Pierre for Cpatt and Mitre in their Rumor Room in the Forums section. You have to register to read the rumors. I've never heard of the website and just signed up so I have no idea of the rumor's validity.

 

What do people think about Cpatt and Mitre for Pierre?

[CuseCubFan69]

Anyone know anything about rotowarriors.com? They have a rumor that there's a proposed trade of Pierre for Cpatt and Mitre in their Rumor Room in the Forums section. You have to register to read the rumors. I've never heard of the website and just signed up so I have no idea of the rumor's validity.

 

What do people think about Cpatt and Mitre for Pierre?

 

I am not a Pierre fan and this trade just gives Baker a guy to plug into the leadoff slot that isn't really that good. If this trade happens I look for another Lee 40 HR low RBI type of year.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Anyone know anything about rotowarriors.com? They have a rumor that there's a proposed trade of Pierre for Cpatt and Mitre in their Rumor Room in the Forums section. You have to register to read the rumors. I've never heard of the website and just signed up so I have no idea of the rumor's validity.

 

What do people think about Cpatt and Mitre for Pierre?

 

If there's any validity to it, it's not a bad move. I'm not sold on Pierre at all, but we're really not giving up much. I like Sergio as much as anyone around here, but he's out of options so he needs to be traded. He won't clear waivers, and when looking at the current personell in the bullpen and rotation, I don't see where he fits into the Cubs 2006 plans. Patterson also is likely to be moved after his dismal season.

 

Pierre will fill the gap in CF, although costly, and gives us the prototypical lead-off hitter Dusty desires. It's not a great move, but it likely doesn't make us a worse team either.

[RynoRules]

Anyone know anything about rotowarriors.com? They have a rumor that there's a proposed trade of Pierre for Cpatt and Mitre in their Rumor Room in the Forums section. You have to register to read the rumors. I've never heard of the website and just signed up so I have no idea of the rumor's validity.

 

What do people think about Cpatt and Mitre for Pierre?

 

If there's any validity to it, it's not a bad move. I'm not sold on Pierre at all, but we're really not giving up much. I like Sergio as much as anyone around here, but he's out of options so he needs to be traded. He won't clear waivers, and when looking at the current personell in the bullpen and rotation, I don't see where he fits into the Cubs 2006 plans. Patterson also is likely to be moved after his dismal season.

 

Pierre will fill the gap in CF, although costly, and gives us the prototypical lead-off hitter Dusty desires. It's not a great move, but it likely doesn't make us a worse team either.

 

Agreed. Its not as though we are giving up Pie, Nalasco or Hill.

 

That's my "nine-hundo" post, btw. :D

[CuseCubFan69]

Anyone know anything about rotowarriors.com? They have a rumor that there's a proposed trade of Pierre for Cpatt and Mitre in their Rumor Room in the Forums section. You have to register to read the rumors. I've never heard of the website and just signed up so I have no idea of the rumor's validity.

 

What do people think about Cpatt and Mitre for Pierre?

 

If there's any validity to it, it's not a bad move. I'm not sold on Pierre at all, but we're really not giving up much. I like Sergio as much as anyone around here, but he's out of options so he needs to be traded. He won't clear waivers, and when looking at the current personell in the bullpen and rotation, I don't see where he fits into the Cubs 2006 plans. Patterson also is likely to be moved after his dismal season.

 

Pierre will fill the gap in CF, although costly, and gives us the prototypical lead-off hitter Dusty desires. It's not a great move, but it likely doesn't make us a worse team either.

 

I disagree. You're making the lineup weaker because Baker is going to put Pierre at the leadoff slot and IMO the goal is to make the team better not to just trade players. I'd rather move CPatt, Mitre and whatever for an impact leadoff guy or power bat.

[JeffH]

I'd rather move CPatt, Mitre and whatever for an impact leadoff guy or power bat.

 

Please be specific. Oh - and reasonable, too.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd rather move CPatt, Mitre and whatever for an impact leadoff guy or power bat.

 

Please be specific. Oh - and reasonable, too.

 

And whatever meaning other Cub players. That is being realistic.

[JeffH]

I'm not a big fan of Pierre, but he's not as bad as many people think he is. Nor is he as good as many people think he is.

 

As long as we get Furcal, too, I'm OK with Pierre.

 

Patterson and Mitre strikes me as reasonable, but I'd like to get a Marlins prospect back in that trade.

 

Maybe add something else from our side and get Jason Vargas.

[Backtobanks]

I'm not a big fan of Pierre, but he's not as bad as many people think he is. Nor is he as good as many people think he is.

 

As long as we get Furcal, too, I'm OK with Pierre.

Patterson and Mitre strikes me as reasonable, but I'd like to get a Marlins prospect back in that trade.

 

Maybe add something else from our side and get Jason Vargas.

 

If we get Furcal, what's the point in getting Pierre. Personally, I think they're both overrated, but we only need to get one of them to leadoff.

[Burtonbell]

Heres a little bit of info on Furcal:

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-051102cubs,1,7532197.story?coll=cs-cubs-headlines

Reigistration is required but here is a piece from the article. Its from Paul Sullivan, but it does quote Furcal's agent.

 

He's very close to Neifi [Perez] and [Aramis] Ramirez, and he played with [Greg] Maddux, so there's a comfort level in Chicago," said Paul Kinzer, Furcal's agent. "Whatever team he goes to, he wants to be able to go to a World Series, and he feels the Cubs are going to be competitive in trying to get there.

 

"I'd say there is very serious interest from Rafael." And the Cubs have indicated serious interest in Furcal. "Very much so," Kinzer said.

[JeffH]

If we don't get two leadoff types, Buttermaker is likely going to bat an outmaker second.

 

Murton might be a good fit at #2, but I'd rather hit him sixth where he can focus on developing into a real run producer, rather than sacrificing all the time.