Wagner to test FA market

[XZero771679666304]

I'm surprised Williamson isn't mentioned more. If Vance's obsession with Dotel actually comes true we'll have a six inning game. Most of the time. Dotel won't go everyday like Williamson this year but when he does I'd put Dotel in the seventh followed by Williamson and then Dempster. Throw in Ohman when needed and that's a solid backend of the game.

 

Williamson should be a lot more effective in 2006, and he is filthy when healthy.

[mg420]

I'm surprised Williamson isn't mentioned more. If Vance's obsession with Dotel actually comes true we'll have a six inning game. Most of the time. Dotel won't go everyday like Williamson this year but when he does I'd put Dotel in the seventh followed by Williamson and then Dempster. Throw in Ohman when needed and that's a solid backend of the game.

 

Williamson should be a lot more effective in 2006, and he is filthy when healthy.

 

but there is some question as to if he can stay healthy given his herky jerky mechanics. i hope they just pick up a setup man like howry & stick with wuretz & jvb.

[HoopsCubs]

With the signing of Dempster, this in no way impacts the Cubs. I don't see us pursuing another closer and paying Dempster 5 million to set-up. It's just not going to happen.

 

I'm not so sure yet. With the obvious dearth in free agent offensive talent beyond Giles, Konerko and Matsui and with the media here constantly reminding us how bad our bullpen was in 2004 and 2005, I could actually see Hendry looking into a Wagner, Ryan or Gordon.

 

Based on published materials (reports and quotes in papers), I am not convinced that Dr. Hendry has correctly diagnosed the patients diseases accurately yet. I'm not hearing, "we need more OBP at the top;" I'm still hearing, "we need speed at the top;" I'm not hearing, "our OF ranked near the bottom of the NL, we need an overhaul;" I'm hearing, "we will make some changes and field a competitive team."

 

If that's the philosophy on offensive changes, it's not much of a stretch to think he won't spend more money in the bullpen.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I'm surprised Williamson isn't mentioned more. If Vance's obsession with Dotel actually comes true we'll have a six inning game. Most of the time. Dotel won't go everyday like Williamson this year but when he does I'd put Dotel in the seventh followed by Williamson and then Dempster. Throw in Ohman when needed and that's a solid backend of the game.

 

Williamson should be a lot more effective in 2006, and he is filthy when healthy.

 

It's unfair to judge Williamson so quick after his TJS, just as it was unfair to judge Dempster in late 2004. BUT, I have to say what I saw of Williamson this fall didn't impress me nearly as much as Dempster did the year before. I just don't know that Williamson can be relied on, and more important, I really don't think I'm prepared to spend $3MM to find out, which is what his option is.

 

I'd rather spend the $3MM on a proven (and healthy) commodity like Eyre or Linebrink or Howry, wouldn't you?

[SAMMYWHO]

No. I wouldn't hesitate spending 3 mil on Scott. He's still under 30 last I checked and has nasty stuff. His biggest problem last year was his slider wouldn't slide and from what I read most of those non sliding sliders left the ball park. He also said in an interview he had been through a TJS before and knew what to expect, out of his arm more than ever before. I'd take that gamble and hope it turned out like Dempster and I am with Vance in that I'd put 3 or 4 mil in front of Dotel and hoped he'd sign the dotted line.

[JeffH]

I really don't think I'm prepared to spend $3MM to find out, which is what his option is.

 

SW's option is for $2, not $3. I believe the source of your info is in error.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I really don't think I'm prepared to spend $3MM to find out, which is what his option is.

 

SW's option is for $2, not $3. I believe the source of your info is in error.

 

Yeah, IIRC, Williamson's deal is almost the exact same one Dempster got.

[JeffH]

Williamson's contract will pay him the minimum in 2005, and if he is activated, it will increase to $500,000. There is a $2 million club option for 2006.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/chc/news/chc_news.jsp?ymd=20050118&content_id=932256&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp

[Diffusion]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Williamson's contract will pay him the minimum in 2005, and if he is activated, it will increase to $500,000. There is a $2 million club option for 2006.

 

http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/chc/news/chc_news.jsp?ymd=20050118&content_id=932256&vkey=news_chc&fext=.jsp

 

Well, I stand corrected. Makes me go hmm....I do feel better about taking a chance on him at 2MM than 3MM. Still leery, but that I might do if better options don't present themselves.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

 

Not good enough. Need one more quality late inning reliever here, IMO, even with Dotel on board. With all our money this year, no reason not to add Howry or Eyre to your list, and subtract Novoa (who I think is trade bait anyways).

[NorthsideAvenger]

I really don't think I'm prepared to spend $3MM to find out, which is what his option is.

 

SW's option is for $2, not $3. I believe the source of your info is in error.

 

Yeah, IIRC, Williamson's deal is almost the exact same one Dempster got.

 

The BIG difference between SW and Dempster, is that Williamson came off his SECOND, I repeat, SECOND TJS. Which tells, he will be walking the line, and with Dusty as manager, it wouldn't surprise me if SW career is over in 2006. Need proof, look at Chad Fox.

 

I like SW, but that was 2 TJS ago. The Cubs need guys who are unquestionable healthy, and could contribute in 2006.

[SAMMYWHO]

Bullpen arms are hit and miss. When you have proven guys like Williamson and Dotel you have to snag them. If they have injury history you just have to say your prayers that they'll tell the manager their arm hurts after the fifth day in a row he throws them out there. I'm personally hoping for a Wuertz, Novoa, Welly, JVB, Leicester to step up and really help in the pen. Like I said, hit and miss.

[YearofDaCubs]

With the signing of Dempster, this in no way impacts the Cubs. I don't see us pursuing another closer and paying Dempster 5 million to set-up. It's just not going to happen.

 

I'm not so sure yet. With the obvious dearth in free agent offensive talent beyond Giles, Konerko and Matsui and with the media here constantly reminding us how bad our bullpen was in 2004 and 2005, I could actually see Hendry looking into a Wagner, Ryan or Gordon.

 

Based on published materials (reports and quotes in papers), I am not convinced that Dr. Hendry has correctly diagnosed the patients diseases accurately yet. I'm not hearing, "we need more OBP at the top;" I'm still hearing, "we need speed at the top;" I'm not hearing, "our OF ranked near the bottom of the NL, we need an overhaul;" I'm hearing, "we will make some changes and field a competitive team."

 

If that's the philosophy on offensive changes, it's not much of a stretch to think he won't spend more money in the bullpen.

Dr Hendry? I like it :)

[goonys evil twin]

Bullpen arms are hit and miss. When you have proven guys like Williamson and Dotel you have to snag them. If they have injury history you just have to say your prayers that they'll tell the manager their arm hurts after the fifth day in a row he throws them out there. I'm personally hoping for a Wuertz, Novoa, Welly, JVB, Leicester to step up and really help in the pen. Like I said, hit and miss.

 

Leicester is a lost cause in my book. I'm not holding out much hope for Welly either. The Cubs have to start looking at guys who give up fewer walks.

[YearofDaCubs]

For 2MIL Williamson is worth it. I'm sure they will also watch him pitch to see if he still has the nasty stuff left. If he does they will pick up the option.

[stitchface]

The Cubs have to start looking at guys who give up fewer walks.

 

 

amen.

 

I would sign Wagner. Not that I expect it from Dusty, but its time to break from traditional bullpen use. I'm no fan, but I do like the way Ozzie has used his pen (from what I have seen). Having two shutdown arms allows a manager to use one in a 7th or 8th clutch situation and still have a closer for the ninth.

[stitchface]

The Cubs have to start looking at guys who give up fewer walks.

 

 

amen.

 

I would sign Wagner. Not that I expect it from Dusty, but its time to break from traditional bullpen use. I'm no fan, but I do like the way Ozzie has used his pen (from what I have seen). Having two shutdown arms allows a manager to use one in a 7th or 8th clutch situation and still have a closer for the ninth.

[SAMMYWHO]

Bullpen arms are hit and miss. When you have proven guys like Williamson and Dotel you have to snag them. If they have injury history you just have to say your prayers that they'll tell the manager their arm hurts after the fifth day in a row he throws them out there. I'm personally hoping for a Wuertz, Novoa, Welly, JVB, Leicester to step up and really help in the pen. Like I said, hit and miss.

 

Leicester is a lost cause in my book. I'm not holding out much hope for Welly either. The Cubs have to start looking at guys who give up fewer walks.

 

I agree Goony, I was just throwing out the many possible cheap options that the Cubs have. Hopefully they will learn before opening day 06 who they are. I still have faith in Novoa, Wuertz and Ohman though.

[Neuby]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

I think with the money the Cubs have to spend they can add another arm to that group be it Sauerbeck, Erye, Howry, Gordon, Mota, Frod ect.

 

Wuertz, Nova, JVB, Welly, Guzman,Lecister, along with Williams depending on how the rotation shakes out the Cubs could have a pretty deep pen if they choose to spend money.

[Diffusion]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

 

Not good enough. Need one more quality late inning reliever here, IMO, even with Dotel on board. With all our money this year, no reason not to add Howry or Eyre to your list, and subtract Novoa (who I think is trade bait anyways).

 

No reason not to whatty what? Novoa has major league stuff (a big heavy fastball that comfortably hits the mid-nineties and a hard late breaking slider), and as such his excellent K (9.5 K/9) and HR (0.8 HR/9) numbers in his first year with the Cubs are hardly a surprise. Furthermore, the control problems that plagued him in 2005 (5.0 BB/9) were somewhat out of character based upon his entire minor league career, where at no stage did he ever walk more than 3.2 per 9 innings, although those numbers were primarily put up as a starter. He also suffered a .333 average on balls in play against in 2005, so it would hardly come as a surprise if that dropped in years to come. All in all, I feel pretty safe in suggesting that Novoa is not very far from becoming a very fine reliever, though it somewhat pains me to say that given I detested the Farnsworth trade. If Novoa's the fifth best reliever in our bullpen, we have absolutely no problems in the bullpen department whatsoever. Oh, and Novoa will next year earn league minimum.

 

Bob Howry isn't a bad pitcher. But demand for his services this winter is going to be out of all proportion with his actual abilities as a reliever. The guy has two very good fastballs, a four-seamer that he hits the mid-nineties with and a two-seamer, and now he controls both of them extremely well, but beyond that he doesn't really have anything, and that's a significant problem. It meant that in 2005 he only managed to record 48 strikeouts in 73 innings, and so the reason that he allowed just 49 hits was not because Howry was restricting balls in play, but because hardly any of the many balls in play turned into hits: hitters hit just .215 on balls in play off him.

 

.217, .296, .253, .312, .274, (2003), .267, .215

 

Those are what hitters have hit off Howry from year-to-year. See a pattern? No, I didn't think so. That's because from year-to-year, with the sample sizes so small, the numbers jump around, up and down, and that's why buying on a reliever after he's had an out of line good year really isn't that great an idea: his next year's perhaps more likely than ever to be the regression to the mean bad year.

 

All in all, for his career, hitters have hit .268 on balls in play off Howry, or the equivalent of 11 extra hits on top of Howry's 49 in 2005. Prior to 2005, hitters had hit .278 on balls in play off Howry, equivalent to another 2 hits on top of the 60. And Howry's home run rate in 2005 was comfortably his best ever, at the age of 31? Something tells me that's headed upwards too, especially if you move him from Jacobs Field to Wrigley. Tag on a couple more homers as well then. All of a sudden, you're talking Howry being about 15 hits of which say 3 homers lucky this year. You've got to believe that that made a huge contribution to his ERA, not to mention keeping inherited runners from scoring. Good for the 2004 Indians. Not necessarily any good at all for whoever then goes and slurges a sizeable investment on him.

 

Scott Eyre? Are you frigging kidding me? He has completely average stuff (bleh fastball, plus-ish slider), and his numbers through the age of 32 were absolutely atrocious, never once featuring a strikeout rate of anywhere close to one an inning, a walk rate much less than one every other inning, only once featuring a balls in play against of less than .270 (and that was in 2004). Are you trying to tell me that one decent/flukish year in a pitcher's paradise in the worst division in baseball changes at the age of 33 changes that to the extent that you'd throw money at him and move a talented young pitcher like Roberto Novoa to make room for him?

 

Please don't get the impression that I'm opposed to the Cubs spending money: I want them to have a payroll in excess of $105m next year. There are just far far better ways off getting to that figure than depositing it in the bank accounts of one-year relief flukes, particularly if we have better in house options, and that's what the situation with Howry/Eyre/Novoa represents. What other names did Neuby throw out there? Sauerbeck? He throws nothing but junk, I'll take my chances with a proper pitcher. Gordon? Great arm, but extremely old and criminally overworked in these last few seasons, almost guaranteed to break down soon. Mota? We'd have to trade players to get him, he's expensive, and he's coming off a terrible season. Definately worth a shot then if the Marlins are giving him away and selling low on a quality arm.

 

Basically, I'm not seeing anyone out there that's worth the money/years given their age and ability all relative to what we already have, besides BJ Ryan that is, with Guillermo Mota an idea worth exploring.

[Neuby]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

 

Not good enough. Need one more quality late inning reliever here, IMO, even with Dotel on board. With all our money this year, no reason not to add Howry or Eyre to your list, and subtract Novoa (who I think is trade bait anyways).

 

No reason not to whatty what? Novoa has major league stuff (a big heavy fastball that comfortably hits the mid-nineties and a hard late breaking slider), and as such his excellent K (9.5 K/9) and HR (0.8 HR/9) numbers in his first year with the Cubs are hardly a surprise. Furthermore, the control problems that plagued him in 2005 (5.0 BB/9) were somewhat out of character based upon his entire minor league career, where at no stage did he ever walk more than 3.2 per 9 innings, although those numbers were primarily put up as a starter. He also suffered a .333 average on balls in play against in 2005, so it would hardly come as a surprise if that dropped in years to come. All in all, I feel pretty safe in suggesting that Novoa is not very far from becoming a very fine reliever, though it somewhat pains me to say that given I detested the Farnsworth trade. If Novoa's the fifth best reliever in our bullpen, we have absolutely no problems in the bullpen department whatsoever. Oh, and Novoa will next year earn league minimum.

 

Bob Howry isn't a bad pitcher. But demand for his services this winter is going to be out of all proportion with his actual abilities as a reliever. The guy has two very good fastballs, a four-seamer that he hits the mid-nineties with and a two-seamer, and now he controls both of them extremely well, but beyond that he doesn't really have anything, and that's a significant problem. It meant that in 2005 he only managed to record 48 strikeouts in 73 innings, and so the reason that he allowed just 49 hits was not because Howry was restricting balls in play, but because hardly any of the many balls in play turned into hits: hitters hit just .215 on balls in play off him.

 

.217, .296, .253, .312, .274, (2003), .267, .215

 

Those are what hitters have hit off Howry from year-to-year. See a pattern? No, I didn't think so. That's because from year-to-year, with the sample sizes so small, the numbers jump around, up and down, and that's why buying on a reliever after he's had an out of line good year really isn't that great an idea: his next year's perhaps more likely than ever to be the regression to the mean bad year.

 

All in all, for his career, hitters have hit .268 on balls in play off Howry, or the equivalent of 11 extra hits on top of Howry's 49 in 2005. Prior to 2005, hitters had hit .278 on balls in play off Howry, equivalent to another 2 hits on top of the 60. And Howry's home run rate in 2005 was comfortably his best ever, at the age of 31? Something tells me that's headed upwards too, especially if you move him from Jacobs Field to Wrigley. Tag on a couple more homers as well then. All of a sudden, you're talking Howry being about 15 hits of which say 3 homers lucky this year. You've got to believe that that made a huge contribution to his ERA, not to mention keeping inherited runners from scoring. Good for the 2004 Indians. Not necessarily any good at all for whoever then goes and slurges a sizeable investment on him.

 

Scott Eyre? Are you frigging kidding me? He has completely average stuff (bleh fastball, plus-ish slider), and his numbers through the age of 32 were absolutely atrocious, never once featuring a strikeout rate of anywhere close to one an inning, a walk rate much less than one every other inning, only once featuring a balls in play against of less than .270 (and that was in 2004). Are you trying to tell me that one decent/flukish year in a pitcher's paradise in the worst division in baseball changes at the age of 33 changes that to the extent that you'd throw money at him and move a talented young pitcher like Roberto Novoa to make room for him?

 

Please don't get the impression that I'm opposed to the Cubs spending money: I want them to have a payroll in excess of $105m next year. There are just far far better ways off getting to that figure than depositing it in the bank accounts of one-year relief flukes, particularly if we have better in house options, and that's what the situation with Howry/Eyre/Novoa represents. What other names did Neuby throw out there? Sauerbeck? He throws nothing but junk, I'll take my chances with a proper pitcher. Gordon? Great arm, but extremely old and criminally overworked in these last few seasons, almost guaranteed to break down soon. Mota? We'd have to trade players to get him, he's expensive, and he's coming off a terrible season. Definately worth a shot then if the Marlins are giving him away and selling low on a quality arm.

 

Basically, I'm not seeing anyone out there that's worth the money/years given their age and ability all relative to what we already have, besides BJ Ryan that is, with Guillermo Mota an idea worth exploring.

 

The problem going into next season counting on Dotel and Williamson heavily is that they will have the Cubs medical team. I love both if healthy high reward , low risk. But counting on them to BOTH remain effective and healthy is too much risk. Thats why I advocate getting another proven arm Seanz would be a cheap option, Howry gets peolpe even if it's just with fastballs he still gets them out. Might come at a discount to return to Chicago. I still think Nova or Wuertz is dealt in a package for a big bat.

[Diffusion]

Dempster

Williamson

Dotel

Wuertz

Novoa

Ohman

(JVB)

Please.

 

Not good enough. Need one more quality late inning reliever here, IMO, even with Dotel on board. With all our money this year, no reason not to add Howry or Eyre to your list, and subtract Novoa (who I think is trade bait anyways).

 

yadda...

 

The problem going into next season counting on Dotel and Williamson heavily is that they will have the Cubs medical team. I love both if healthy high reward , low risk. But counting on them to BOTH remain effective and healthy is too much risk. Thats why I advocate getting another proven arm Seanz would be a cheap option, Howry gets peolpe even if it's just with fastballs he still gets them out. Might come at a discount to return to Chicago. I still think Nova or Wuertz is dealt in a package for a big bat.

 

Why even bother with a farm system if, in the event of two of your relief arms getting injured, you can't trust a single pitcher from the minor leagues to pitch out of the bullpen, to be your eighth/ninth relief arm?

 

And even if you were to do all that sign Howry/Seanez and trade Novoa/Wuertz, but where does that get you? It means you add quite a bit of payroll for the sake of creating a trading chip and a possible upgrade that's only short-term (in that you'll have to get around to replacing sooner). And you're still have the "problem" that if two people go down, you're left having to call up someone from the farm system besides JVB. It just doesn't make that much sense.

[RockTheIvy]

From Rotoworld:

 

Several Mets executives, including GM Omar Minaya, traveled to Virginia yesterday to meet with Billy Wagner at his home.

The Mets can't talk money with Wagner for another week, but they can tell him how much they would like to make him their closer. They're one of eight teams that have been in contact with agent Bean Stringfellow so far. Nov. 4 - 4:09 am et

Source: New York Post

 

Any ideas who the eight teams are?

Phillies

Mets

Red Sox

Yankees

Orioles

...Cubs?