MLB.com article on Guzman

[goonys evil twin]

Guzman has at least two more options left, meaning he can be placed in the minors for two more seasons. I think if Guzzy has a lights out spring, he has a chance to make the parent club but I honestly think that he is going to be assigned to either the Diamond Jaxx or Iowa.

 

So does that mean this was his first year on the 40 man roster?

 

I'm almost positive he was on the 40 man in 2003, wasn't he?

 

I figured 2004 was his first year. He was a pro at age 18 in 2000. I thought there was some rule about 18 year olds going on the 40 man after 4 years, while college guys went on after 3. That would mean he was not on the roster in 2000, 2001, 2002 or 2003, but went on the 40 man in 2004 and 2005. Which of course would mean he burned 2 options when pitching in the minors the past 2 years. Of course, I have no idea if that's accurate. I will say, if this is his last option year, you can't risk him as a starter again. If he has 2 more, then maybe you think about it. But either way, if it's me, he goes to the pen and you hope he turns into FRod by August.

 

 

From the Cubs website:

 

Angel was added to the Cubs' major league roster in October 2003...

 

Doesn't that mean he burned an option in 2004 and 2005?

[goonys evil twin]

The Cubs put him on the forty man roster on October 2003.

 

Guzman was very healthy from 2001-2003. He got injured in the second half of the 2003 season. It's not like his entire career has been beseiged with injuries.

 

I would beg to differ. He was injured with KC, no? He was healthy in 2001 and 2002 (not -2003 as you say). He missed a large chunk of 2003, 2004 and 2005. He's been hurt in 60% of his pro seasons. History is littered with "if he stays healthy" pitchers who amounted to nothing. A switch to the bullpen would at least give you a chance of getting something from him. The best predictor of future injury is past injury. Guzman's past injuries are numerous. The Cubs have shown no ability to keep pitcher's injury with any sort of prehab type treatment. Their bording on incompetent in that department. I would not put an ounce of faith in their ability to nurse Guzman through 2 straight healthy seasons as a starter.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

We can either decide to keep him as a starter, and accept the fact he's injury prone, or we can trade him for a prospect with less talent and better chance of contributing at the major league level.

 

Hopefully he gets his stock up enough that we can get a decent prospect (w/o injury concerns).

 

Why waste someone with a great set of pitches in the bullpen? His stuff is too good for the pen.

[USSoccer]

We can either decide to keep him as a starter, and accept the fact he's injury prone, or we can trade him for a prospect with less talent and better chance of contributing at the major league level.

 

Hopefully he gets his stock up enough that we can get a decent prospect (w/o injury concerns).

 

Why waste someone with a great set of pitches in the bullpen? His stuff is too good for the pen.

 

The trouble is that he's not likely to have much trade value, and even if he did, it would mean he was healthy and then the Cubs would be insane to trade him.

 

I'm not saying Angel isn't talented, because he is. The debate (in my mind) is how we can best use Angel and his talents. IMO, assuming he can be a starter is taking a real risk, because he's had a history of arm issues. Putting him in the pen would be a different, possibly lower stress way to get him contributing to the ML team. It wouldn't hurt to try something different.

[goonys evil twin]

Why waste someone with a great set of pitches in the bullpen? His stuff is too good for the pen.

 

Why is that a waste? Perhaps if he limited his repertoire he'd be less prone to injury, perhaps. Regardless, talented arms in the pen are extremely value. It's much more of a waste to let him reinjure himself, and you can't get any value in trade for a guy who can't stay healthy.

[JeffH]

Angel Guzman has one option year remaining.

 

He can be optioned to the minor leagues next season.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

We can either decide to keep him as a starter, and accept the fact he's injury prone, or we can trade him for a prospect with less talent and better chance of contributing at the major league level.

 

Hopefully he gets his stock up enough that we can get a decent prospect (w/o injury concerns).

 

Why waste someone with a great set of pitches in the bullpen? His stuff is too good for the pen.

 

The trouble is that he's not likely to have much trade value, and even if he did, it would mean he was healthy and then the Cubs would be insane to trade him.

 

I'm not saying Angel isn't talented, because he is. The debate (in my mind) is how we can best use Angel and his talents. IMO, assuming he can be a starter is taking a real risk, because he's had a history of arm issues. Putting him in the pen would be a different, possibly lower stress way to get him contributing to the ML team. It wouldn't hurt to try something different.

 

All he has to do is be healthy for one full season and then we should pull the trigger. Baseball is full of fools (read: scouts and GMs) who imagine what a guy can do based on what they see. They'll overlook injuries and stats (WHIP, etc) and go with gut feeling. Saying that we can't trade him b/c of injury history is ridiculous. we won't get the same deal we would have gotten dealing him before injury, but he can be dealt (if we don't just decide to go with him hell or high water).

 

How is putting him in the pen going to help? This last injury he suffered on the first or second pitch he threw. That would have happened if he was a RP or SP.

[goonys evil twin]

All he has to do is be healthy for one full season and then we should pull the trigger.

 

Yeah, that's sort of the problem.

[goonys evil twin]

Angel Guzman has one option year remaining.

 

He can be optioned to the minor leagues next season.

 

So this year, put him in the pen and option him to the minors unless he's great in the spring. If you you let him start, and he does get injured, then he's worthless to you. You can't keep him on the roster after that. You have to find out this year if he's worth keeping around.

 

So

 

1) Put him in the pen right away, and if he does well in the spring, he breaks camp with the team (possibly saving the option).

2) Option him to AAA and let him work on being a reliever, call him up if he stays healthy and succeeds for a while.

 

If you start him in the rotation, odds are he gets hurt again, and you no longer have the benefit of being able to wait for him to heal, because by next year you have no option and you can't just put him in the 25 man not knowing what you have.

[jaxxradio]

The bottom line on Guzman is this. He has got a tremendous amount of talent. Is he going to stay healthy for a whole season? Based on the fact that he is now in the best shape of his career, my answer is a resounding yes.

 

I'm just in awe of all the posts about sending this guy, who by the way has four above average pitches, to the bullpen. You don't send a guy who can throw four major league type pitches to the bullpen. Guzman is a starting pitcher.

 

I'm willing to bet the folks that want to trade Guzman or aren't on his bandwagon have never seen him pitch because if you folks have, you wouldn't be talking like this. I've said it before and I will say it again, Guzman is the real deal.

[Tim]

For those who insist that the only real choice with Guzman is to send him to the pen, do you think Minnesota made a bad move by leaving Liriano in a starting role after missing two complete years with shoulder problems? Because they look like they've got a heck of a pitcher on their hands to me.

[goonys evil twin]

The bottom line on Guzman is this. He has got a tremendous amount of talent. Is he going to stay healthy for a whole season? Based on the fact that he is now in the best shape of his career, my answer is a resounding yes.

 

I'm just in awe of all the posts about sending this guy, who by the way has four above average pitches, to the bullpen. You don't send a guy who can throw four major league type pitches to the bullpen. Guzman is a starting pitcher.

 

I'm willing to bet the folks that want to trade Guzman or aren't on his bandwagon have never seen him pitch because if you folks have, you wouldn't be talking like this. I've said it before and I will say it again, Guzman is the real deal.

 

Personally I'm in awe that somebody can see Guzman's injury history and laugh off the idea of trying something different. I'm far more comfortable with the immense history of extremely talented pitchers who can't stay healthy than I am in believing that simply getting in shape will fix everything.

 

Nomar was supposedly in the best shape of his life in March.

 

Maybe it'll work out, with a ton of luck, but no way can you say it's insane to put him in the bullpen. Visual history or not, this wouldn't be the first time people wasted an arm because they refused to try something new with a guy who couldn't stay healthy.

[USSoccer]

The bottom line on Guzman is this. He has got a tremendous amount of talent. Is he going to stay healthy for a whole season? Based on the fact that he is now in the best shape of his career, my answer is a resounding yes.

 

I'm just in awe of all the posts about sending this guy, who by the way has four above average pitches, to the bullpen. You don't send a guy who can throw four major league type pitches to the bullpen. Guzman is a starting pitcher.

 

I'm willing to bet the folks that want to trade Guzman or aren't on his bandwagon have never seen him pitch because if you folks have, you wouldn't be talking like this. I've said it before and I will say it again, Guzman is the real deal.

 

RP-

 

I've seen him pitch, albieit on television and not in person, and I've seen his talent. He's a great talent. However, his talent means nothing unless he stays healthy, and the Cubs need to explore every option possible in order to keep him healthy. Certainly he hasn't been able to avoid injury while being a starter. If it means having him use only 2 pitches in the pen, then go for it. You cannot wait forever to see if this will be the season that Angel stays healthy. You can only really wait one more year, and even that's questionable.

 

Believe me, I'm on his bandwagon, if that means I want him to contribute positively to the 2006 Chicago Cubs. However, based on his past injury history, I have to question how the organization has approached his role. Maybe 4 pitches is too much for his arm. Maybe he's just one of those guys that can only handle a certain amount of wear and tear. I hope he's in good shape, and I'd rather him be a starter, if all things were equal. But there should be real questions about his durability as a starting pitcher. Past injuries, as Gonny said, are the best predictor of future injuries.

 

I know you see more of the prospects than I do, certainly, and I'll defer to your knowledge about the shape Angel is in, but I'm just too skeptical of his history to be counting on him as a starter.

[USSoccer]

For those who insist that the only real choice with Guzman is to send him to the pen, do you think Minnesota made a bad move by leaving Liriano in a starting role after missing two complete years with shoulder problems? Because they look like they've got a heck of a pitcher on their hands to me.

 

How similar were the situations? How many options did Liriano have left? How old is he?

 

I just don't know enough about his situation to be able to compare the two.

[goonys evil twin]

For those who insist that the only real choice with Guzman is to send him to the pen, do you think Minnesota made a bad move by leaving Liriano in a starting role after missing two complete years with shoulder problems? Because they look like they've got a heck of a pitcher on their hands to me.

 

If Guzman was still 20 I'd agree with you. As far as I can tell, Liriano has thrown 2 complete seasons in a row, and will turn 22 this month. And he's probably got a couple options left. This year was the last straw for me with Guzman and the benefit of the doubt. Liriano is younger, started a year later, and has 80 more IP than Guzman.

 

Not what I would call a comparable situation.

[jaxxradio]

You guys make it seem like 24 is ancient when in reality its still quite young. The average age for a Double-A player is just 23 and there are PLENTY of 24 year old guys that are top of the line prospects in the game.

 

As for his arm problems, there isn't a blue chip caliber pitcher in the Cubs system other than Zambrano who has pitched three consecutive seasons without arm problems. Lets see, should we trade Mark Prior becuase he can't go a full season without getting hurt? Maybe Wood should be shown the door because he just can't seem to stay healthy for a full season.

 

It amazes me the ignorance that you guys are showing. If any of you guys posting asked Oneri Fleita or Jim Hendry about making Angel Guzman a relief pitcher they would look at you like you just stepped out of the nuthouse. The transition from starter to relief pitcher is huge. You just don't do that for someone as immensely talented as Guzman, let alone any pitcher that has put up solid numbers as a starting pitcher.

 

If he continues to be injury prone, so be it. It's not the end of the world. Nolasco, Pinto, Hill, Ryu.. there all waiting in the wings. Again, its goes back to not screwing around with his role as a pitcher. If Guzman is healthy, he will be a dominating pitcher in the majors and you folks that are butchering him because he's hurt, will be all over the Guzman bandwagon. If he continues to be hurt, then I'll continue to maintain that the Cubs did the right thing by not making him a reliever because the transition would have screwed him up anyway.

[USSoccer]

You guys make it seem like 24 is ancient when in reality its still quite young. The average age for a Double-A player is just 23 and there are PLENTY of 24 year old guys that are top of the line prospects in the game.

 

As for his arm problems, there isn't a blue chip caliber pitcher in the Cubs system other than Zambrano who has pitched three consecutive seasons without arm problems. Lets see, should we trade Mark Prior becuase he can't go a full season without getting hurt? Maybe Wood should be shown the door because he just can't seem to stay healthy for a full season.

 

It amazes me the ignorance that you guys are showing. If any of you guys posting asked Oneri Fleita or Jim Hendry about making Angel Guzman a relief pitcher they would look at you like you just stepped out of the nuthouse. The transition from starter to relief pitcher is huge. You just don't do that for someone as immensely talented as Guzman, let alone any pitcher that has put up solid numbers as a starting pitcher.

 

If he continues to be injury prone, so be it. It's not the end of the world. Nolasco, Pinto, Hill, Ryu.. there all waiting in the wings. Again, its goes back to not screwing around with his role as a pitcher. If Guzman is healthy, he will be a dominating pitcher in the majors and you folks that are butchering him because he's hurt, will be all over the Guzman bandwagon. If he continues to be hurt, then I'll continue to maintain that the Cubs did the right thing by not making him a reliever because the transition would have screwed him up anyway.

 

RP-

 

With respect to Mark Prior, his injuries were almost all freak injuries. It's not as if running into Marcus Giles or getting hit in the elbow by a line drive are his fault. Likewise, the one DL stint for Prior in 2004 can likely be attributed to gross overuse in 2003, which can be laid at the feet of the decision makers in the organization. Ditto for Kerry Wood, except with Wood you wouldn't want to move him to the pen since his salary is too high for a setup man, and his problem is mechanical. After 2006, if he still isn't healthy, or misses signifigant time with another arm injury, he should be shown the door, as he is a great pitcher, but spends too much time on the shelf to be useful to the Cubs.

 

As far as Oneri Flieta or Jim Hendry go, they may look at me like I'm crazy, but given the Cubs track record with P prospects and arm injuries, I'd be entitled to look at them the exact same way. Christiansen, Ryu, Wood, Guzman, Brownlie, Hagarty and several others have all had serious arm injuries while with this club. Sure, you expect that to happen to some of your prospects, but patterns show up when the injury list grows. So they can look at me crazy, but it's not unreasonable to suggest something different to get someone with that much talent to contribute in some way to the 2006 Cubs.

 

And again, I'm not bashing Guzman. I want him to do well, but I disagree with you that having his start is the only way for his talent to help the Cubs.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And again, I'm not bashing Guzman. I want him to do well, but I disagree with you that having his start is the only way for his talent to help the Cubs.

 

I don't think anyone disagrees that Guzman starting is the only way for him to help the Cubs, just that it's the best way for him to help the Cubs (and himself).

[rawaction]

I'm a little late, but the point is this:

 

Moving Guzman to the bullpen would be the Cubs just trying to salvage something out of him.* The Cubs want to do more than that. They want the pitcher with the immense potential to fulfill it for them, which is that of a top of the rotation type starter. If you want to get that full potential, you gotta give him a chance to reach it. It's a high risk/high reward proposition. If there's any glimmer of hope that he can still become a top flight starter (which I and the Cubs believe there is), then you go for it, even at the risk of having him never being able to help the Cubs major league team in any way. This way is very justified. The Cubs didn't invest a top draft choice on Angel. They aren't throwing millions of dollars at him. If he never makes it, no big loss in the grand scheme of things.

 

 

*Admittedly, he could make a pretty good career out of being a relief pitcher, but I don't think it's gonna happen. As Ron said, the great relievers are failed starters......Guzman hasn't failed, he's been injured.

[CubinNY]

What are Guzman's problems? I mean why is he getting injured? If it is mechanical, solve them or trade him for what you can get because he will never be healthy.

 

If it is happening when he gets tired and his mechanics break down, build up his arm strength/endurance, put him in the pen, or trade him for whatever you can get. But solve his problems. Injuries don't just happen, they occur for a reason. Find out what that reason is, fix it or get rid of him.

 

I don't care how dominating he can be. He cannot stay healthy. he is no good if he can't pitch.

[T2E]

Review of Guzman's injuries:

 

2000- Stress fracture in elbow- what caused the Cubs to be able to get him

2003- Slight labrum tear, arthoscopic surgery

2004- Misses beginning of the year, shut down due his shoulder acting up

2005- Misses most of the year due to forearm problems

 

So that's four injuries, in six years, only two full seasons without problems.

 

As for his arm problems, there isn't a blue chip caliber pitcher in the Cubs system other than Zambrano who has pitched three consecutive seasons without arm problems.

 

It's not that Guzman hasn't pitched three consecutive seasons without arm problems in the past three years, it's that he hasn't pitched ONE consecutive season without arm problems.

 

I'm willing to bet the folks that want to trade Guzman or aren't on his bandwagon have never seen him pitch because if you folks have, you wouldn't be talking like this. I've said it before and I will say it again, Guzman is the real deal.

 

I do not question that Guzman is in fact the "real deal," nor am I "not on his badwagon," but I have serious concerns about his health and I don't why seeing him pitch would change those concerns.

 

If he continues to be hurt, then I'll continue to maintain that the Cubs did the right thing by not making him a reliever because the transition would have screwed him up anyway.

 

I don't understand where this idea that Guzman in the pen would definitely would "screw him up." Clearly, there is a transition from the rotation to the pen, but it's not as though Guzman would be the first pitcher to make it. Lidge, Gagne, Smoltz, among others have all made the transition well.

 

Of course I'd love to see Guzman return to full form and become a top of the line starter. And for that reason, I'd start the year with him in the rotation, but if he gets injured, I'd make the swtich to the bullpen.

[craig]

Guy at Guzman game the other day said he was awesome, hit 97 with his 4-seamer, was consistently 93 zone with 2-seamer, threw all four pitches, threw strikes strikes strikes, and said that the six hits were three infield hits and three bloops. Said he looked fantastic.

 

And like so many first-hand observers have noted, observed how easy and relaxed and pure his mechanics looked.

 

This is one of the puzzles with the guy. They've always talked about how good his delivery looks... yet he's had arm troubles anyway.

 

Personal thoughts:

1. Pitchers get injured sometimes. Sometimes when they are stronger, they are less prone to that. He isn't the guy he was back in A-ball.

2. Sometimes we look for patterns, and for good reason. But injuries sometimes do come and go, as coincidences. A guy gets nagged with injuries for a while, then gets healthy and stays healthy for a while sometimes. Other guys are healthy for years and years, then suddenly get bit by injuries now and then. Are some guys at higher risk of injury than others, perhaps much higher, and is Guzman one of those guys? It would sure seem so. But I'm not sure that injuries are all that predictable, especially for a guy with great mechanics.

3. Ron, I disagree that moving to relief would be that problematic for him. If he's as good as he sometimes looks, he'll be good in relief too. Pitching isn't *that* much different, if you can throw strikes and have good stuff starting, a guy who can throw strikes and has good stuff should also be an effective reliever.

4. While it may be that rotation is more likely to cause injury than relief, it's by no means certain. The irregular and unscheduled usage in relief may perhaps be almost as or more risky. It's not as if he'd be injury-proofed by using him in relief.

5. Personal opinion: keep him in rotation, not even close IMO. It's basic risk/reward stuff. His possible value in rotation is so high, and the difference in injury risk, while perhaps being higher, to me seems only slightly higher. Not enough difference in risk to justify giving up on him in rotation.

6. Take your chances and take what you get. As Cub fans, of course, it seems perhaps inevitable that anything that could go either way will go against us. But I think we just have to put him out there and hope he holds up.

 

Sometimes things do work out, you know. Cruz didn't, but Zambrano has. Corey didn't and Choi didn't and Hill didn't and Kelton didn't, so it's seemed like all position prospects fail. But now all of a sudden Murton doesn't come up and fail, he comes up and looks good. And Cedeno does too. Maybe our luck with kids is ready to turn around, and Guzman working out will be a big part of that.

[Brian]

Guy at Guzman game the other day said he was awesome, hit 97 with his 4-seamer, was consistently 93 zone with 2-seamer, threw all four pitches, threw strikes strikes strikes, and said that the six hits were three infield hits and three bloops. Said he looked fantastic.

 

=P~ please stay healthy from now on Gooz.

[TXCubsFan]

I'm a little late, but the point is this:

 

Moving Guzman to the bullpen would be the Cubs just trying to salvage something out of him.* The Cubs want to do more than that. They want the pitcher with the immense potential to fulfill it for them, which is that of a top of the rotation type starter. If you want to get that full potential, you gotta give him a chance to reach it. It's a high risk/high reward proposition. If there's any glimmer of hope that he can still become a top flight starter (which I and the Cubs believe there is), then you go for it, even at the risk of having him never being able to help the Cubs major league team in any way. This way is very justified. The Cubs didn't invest a top draft choice on Angel. They aren't throwing millions of dollars at him. If he never makes it, no big loss in the grand scheme of things.

 

 

*Admittedly, he could make a pretty good career out of being a relief pitcher, but I don't think it's gonna happen. As Ron said, the great relievers are failed starters......Guzman hasn't failed, he's been injured.

 

Hendry loves these types of players. Rich Hill is the archtype, and he might turn into a good #3 starter. If Guzman can reach his potential, imagine having a Zambrano - Prior - Guzman rotation in a playoff series!

[RyCubsFan]

I'm a little late, but the point is this:

 

Moving Guzman to the bullpen would be the Cubs just trying to salvage something out of him.* The Cubs want to do more than that. They want the pitcher with the immense potential to fulfill it for them, which is that of a top of the rotation type starter. If you want to get that full potential, you gotta give him a chance to reach it. It's a high risk/high reward proposition. If there's any glimmer of hope that he can still become a top flight starter (which I and the Cubs believe there is), then you go for it, even at the risk of having him never being able to help the Cubs major league team in any way. This way is very justified. The Cubs didn't invest a top draft choice on Angel. They aren't throwing millions of dollars at him. If he never makes it, no big loss in the grand scheme of things.

 

 

*Admittedly, he could make a pretty good career out of being a relief pitcher, but I don't think it's gonna happen. As Ron said, the great relievers are failed starters......Guzman hasn't failed, he's been injured.

 

Hendry loves these types of players. Rich Hill is the archtype, and he might turn into a good #3 starter. If Guzman can reach his potential, imagine having a Zambrano - Prior - Guzman rotation in a playoff series!

 

 

I'm not sure how you can leave Kerry Wood off of that list.