The 2006 Thread, Current topic: Center Field

[RockTheIvy]

Any chance you could tell us what Dunn would have done for us?

 

Rock.... here's a quick approximation for you:

 

Our left fielders (Hollandsworth, Dubois, Lawton & Murton) had about 20 more plate appearances (roughly 3%) than Adam Dunn, so there will be a greater degree of inaccuracy with this one. Also, I've made no adjustments for games that these 4 players played somewhere else other than LF or for any other players playing left field for us. Here's what their lines look like:

 

04/04 - 10/02      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Hol/Dub/Mur/Law   632   65  166   34    4   20  268   76   45  132  0.263  0.315  0.424  0.739
Dunn              543  107  134   35    2   40  293  101  114  168  0.247  0.387  0.540  0.927

 

The gain in OBP is .072 for left field, or divided by 9, .008 for the team totals. OPS gain .188 for left field, or .021 for the team total. The net effect then, would look like this:

 

 

CUBS with              Hol/Dub/Mur/Law        Dunn

OBP                               .324        .332
League Rank                         11           8
Difference from mean             -.006        .002
Z Score (# std dev from mean)     -.78         .16

 

The effect on OPS is even more dramatic.........

 

CUBS with              Hol/Dub/Mur/Law        Dunn

OPS                               .764        .785
League Rank                          4           1
Difference from mean              .020        .041
Z Score (# std dev from mean)      .90        1.66

 

Now for the ultimate what if question...... What if the CUBS had traded Burnitz for Giles AND Hollandsworth/Dubois/Murton/Lawton for Adam Dunn a year ago ???? In addition to adding the appriopriate gain to the CUBS' line, let's also make the appropriate reduction from the stat lines of Cincinnati & San Diego. This is what the league totals would look like......

 

10/02            BA    OBP    SLG    OPS							
Chicago       0.273  0.343  0.458  0.801							
Philadelphia  0.270  0.348  0.423  0.771							
Atlanta       0.265  0.333  0.435  0.768							
Cincinnati    0.263  0.331  0.433  0.764							
St. Louis     0.270  0.339  0.423  0.762							
Milwaukee     0.259  0.331  0.423  0.754							
Arizona       0.256  0.332  0.421  0.753							
Florida       0.272  0.339  0.409  0.748							
Colorado      0.267  0.333  0.411  0.744							
NY Mets       0.258  0.322  0.416  0.738							
Houston       0.256  0.322  0.408  0.730							
Pittsburgh    0.259  0.322  0.400  0.722							
Los Angeles   0.253  0.326  0.395  0.721							
San Francisco 0.261  0.319  0.396  0.715							
San Diego     0.252  0.322  0.386  0.708							
Washington    0.252  0.322  0.386  0.708							

Maximum       0.273  0.348  0.458  0.801							
Minimum       0.252  0.319  0.386  0.708							
Average       0.262  0.330  0.414  0.744		

 

Notice, that now we have the CUBS leading the lead in BA, SLG & OPS, and trailing only Philadelphia by .005 in OBP. That difference can easily be overcome by replacing Corey with Hairston. In any case, Mr Hendry, you have your work cut out for you.

 

Go CUBS !!

 

Wow, thanks a lot!

 

All that we have to do now is foward that to Hendry.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

[USSoccer]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

[CuseCubFan69]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

I've been told by Cub management that there is no Fred and there never was. You'll say the same if you catch my drift.

[sethuel1]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

Gary Hughes doesn't allow computers in the office.

[CuseCubFan69]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

Gary Hughes doesn't allow computers in the office.

 

 

I don't think Mr. Hughes knows what a computer is.

[goonys evil twin]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

Gary Hughes doesn't allow computers in the office.

 

 

I don't think Mr. Hughes knows what a computer is.

 

 

He knows something about computers though, that damn Moneyball was written on one of those daggum machines.

[CuseCubFan69]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

Gary Hughes doesn't allow computers in the office.

 

 

I don't think Mr. Hughes knows what a computer is.

 

 

He knows something about computers though, that damn Moneyball was written on one of those daggum machines.

 

So he uses the book and computer as paperweights? As I said in the Japanese players thread I just don't understand not using every resource available. Being stubburn or ignorant just gets you where you've been, not where you're going.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

BTW, Fred,

 

You don't happen to have an estimate on what effect Giles in RF druing 2005 would have had on the total runs scored, do you?

[CubsWin]

Maybe the mods can break this tangent off into its own thread. That way this one can stay on topic and the tangent will be easier to find.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

I've been told by Cub management that there is no Fred and there never was. You'll say the same if you catch my drift.

 

Like my old buddy Mark Twain said.... "The reports of my demise have been greatly exagerated." :wink:

[Proven Veteran]

Fred,

 

You really should implore Hendry to give your statistical analysis a look.

 

Thanks for the research.

 

Gary Hughes would burn the data, banish Fred, and destroy every computer in the office rather than open his mind up to something other than subjective observation.

 

Gary Hughes doesn't allow computers in the office.

 

 

I don't think Mr. Hughes knows what a computer is.

 

 

He knows something about computers though, that damn Moneyball was written on one of those daggum machines.

 

So he uses the book and computer as paperweights? As I said in the Japanese players thread I just don't understand not using every resource available. Being stubburn or ignorant just gets you where you've been, not where you're going.

 

That's the Cubs' history, they are always behind the curve in management philosophies. I just wish we could get someone ahead of the curve just once.

[Roast]

GO VOTE... First to ten wins.

 

When all else fails, lower your standards.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

I found this mlb.com mailbag nugget on the Cards interest Giles.

 

have heard recently that the Cardinals are interested in signing free agent Brian Giles of the Padres. With his high on-base percentage and power, he would be a good replacement for Larry Walker and the Cardinals would still have a left-handed bat in right. Is there any truth to this rumor, and what do you think about this possible acquisition?

-- Stan D., Rock Valley, Iowa.

 

 

 

Well, this has certainly been question 1a, and it's intertwined with 1b, which I'll get to after this one.

 

Giles, first of all, is simply a fantastic player -- an exceptional hitter who plays solid defense, runs the bases well and is basically the prototype of a Tony La Russa player. PETCO Park killed his numbers this year -- away from home he hit .333 with a .463 OBP and .545 slugging percentage. I'll take two, please. However, he'll be 35 before next season starts, so I'd hesitate to give him too long a deal. Maybe two years with an option -- I think three years might be unwise.

 

As for the likelihood, it will depend on how the market shakes down. There aren't a lot of premium players, hitters or pitchers, on the market this year. Along with Giles, you're looking at Johnny Damon, possibly Hideki Matsui, and then a lot of guys like Juan Encarnacion and Jacque Jones. I don't see the Cardinals spending a ton to land Giles, but if he decides he wants to play here, it wouldn't be shocking.

 

 

Not real enlightening but I thought some of you might find it interesting. I'm having hard time finding any good information as to what type of contact he's expecting. It should be an interesting offseason.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I found this mlb.com mailbag nugget on the Cards interest Giles.

 

have heard recently that the Cardinals are interested in signing free agent Brian Giles of the Padres. With his high on-base percentage and power, he would be a good replacement for Larry Walker and the Cardinals would still have a left-handed bat in right. Is there any truth to this rumor, and what do you think about this possible acquisition?

-- Stan D., Rock Valley, Iowa.

 

 

 

Well, this has certainly been question 1a, and it's intertwined with 1b, which I'll get to after this one.

 

Giles, first of all, is simply a fantastic player -- an exceptional hitter who plays solid defense, runs the bases well and is basically the prototype of a Tony La Russa player. PETCO Park killed his numbers this year -- away from home he hit .333 with a .463 OBP and .545 slugging percentage. I'll take two, please. However, he'll be 35 before next season starts, so I'd hesitate to give him too long a deal. Maybe two years with an option -- I think three years might be unwise.

 

As for the likelihood, it will depend on how the market shakes down. There aren't a lot of premium players, hitters or pitchers, on the market this year. Along with Giles, you're looking at Johnny Damon, possibly Hideki Matsui, and then a lot of guys like Juan Encarnacion and Jacque Jones. I don't see the Cardinals spending a ton to land Giles, but if he decides he wants to play here, it wouldn't be shocking.

 

 

Not real enlightening but I thought some of you might find it interesting. I'm having hard time finding any good information as to what type of contact he's expecting. It should be an interesting offseason.

 

I posted the same information in a thread in Rivalries this morning. Also, I believe I read somewhere that he is looking in the neighborhood of three years but it didn't attach a dollar amount to his expectations.

[Roast]

Finally, we have a decision. 4 years, 50 million dollars. The final thing we need to decide is how to structure the deal...

 

Someone throw out some ideas so we can move off this topic :)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Finally, we have a decision. 4 years, 50 million dollars. The final thing we need to decide is how to structure the deal...

 

Someone throw out some ideas so we can move off this topic :)

 

2006: 12 million

2007: 12 million

2008: 12 million

2009: 12 million.

 

12 million option for 2010 with a 2 million buyout. Guaranteed value is 4/50, but there's the possibility for 5/60.

[YearofDaCubs]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age.

 

We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later.

[YearofDaCubs]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age.

 

We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later.

I want Giles too but 4 years scares me. Obviously if we can get him for 3 years that would be perfect.

[Neuby]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age.

 

We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later.

 

Manny

[XZero771679666304]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age.

 

We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later.

I want Giles too but 4 years scares me. Obviously if we can get him for 3 years that would be perfect.

 

4 scares me too. I would be less scared if the contract was frontloaded, even less if there was a mutual option for a fourth year.

[JeffH]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

38

[JeffH]

The window is closing.

 

:roll:

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I dont know man isn't 4 years kinda steep for a player who will be 39 going into the last season of his contract?

 

Had the Cubs had Giles in RF instead of Burnitz, we would have been 5th in OBP instead of 13th. That alone speaks of his value. The window is closing. I don't think we have the luxury of passing on the only impact OF because of his age.

 

We can be fiscally responsible in fourth place or we can overpay for the player than immediately improves the line-up. I choose the later.

I want Giles too but 4 years scares me. Obviously if we can get him for 3 years that would be perfect.

 

What if the Cards offered 3/36, would you do the fourth to keep him away from them? I would. I would go ahead and offer the fourth to keep him from even thinking about other teams.