Nomar money

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lofton's in for a steep decline when his BABIP catches up to him. If LA really is interested in moving Bradley, we should be all over that.

 

what's his LD% to go along with that?

 

and i agree with the bradley thing.

 

It's real high this year, but last year was 10% lower. Check out Diffusion's stuff in the Wilkerson v. Dunn thread about Lofton and his BABIP. It's WAY out of line with anything he's done in his career, and in recent years to go with it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lofton's in for a steep decline when his BABIP catches up to him. If LA really is interested in moving Bradley, we should be all over that.

 

bradley is a major head case (not to mention a wife beater). no thanks.

 

He's also one of the most productive CF in baseball, is reasonably cheap and pretty young, not to mention possibly available.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

Lofton's in for a steep decline when his BABIP catches up to him. If LA really is interested in moving Bradley, we should be all over that.

 

bradley is a major head case (not to mention a wife beater). no thanks.

 

He's also one of the most productive CF in baseball, is reasonably cheap and pretty young, not to mention possibly available.

 

as long as he doesn't miss playing time b/c of a stint behind bars. :wink:

 

Hendry favors the good character guys...Bradley probably isn't Wrigley bound. :(

[Magnetic Curses]

as long as bradley plays 140+ games and produces like he usually does, i'll leave the cops to sort out his personal life.

[TheDude]

I couldn't disagree more. Some things are flukes. You first have to show that Nomar's injury history has anything to do with the current injury before a causal link can be established.

 

You do not have to show that link.

 

If a corporation repeatedly misses earnings estimates, but each time they do so there is a seemingly innocent reason why, do we say it's a healthy company.

 

The trend is your friend. Anybody who was genuinely surprised that Nomar suffered a serious injury in 2005 should be ashamed of themselves.

Then you cannot exclude Prior from your analysis. You can't call Prior's elbow "flukish" because he has a history as well.

[mg420]

as long as bradley plays 140+ games and produces like he usually does, i'll leave the cops to sort out his personal life.

 

what about his altercations with the fans, managment & teamates? with pie in the minors, i would prefer a stopgap like lofton myself.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I couldn't disagree more. Some things are flukes. You first have to show that Nomar's injury history has anything to do with the current injury before a causal link can be established.

 

You do not have to show that link.

 

If a corporation repeatedly misses earnings estimates, but each time they do so there is a seemingly innocent reason why, do we say it's a healthy company.

 

The trend is your friend. Anybody who was genuinely surprised that Nomar suffered a serious injury in 2005 should be ashamed of themselves.

Then you cannot exclude Prior from your analysis. You can't call Prior's elbow "flukish" because he has a history as well.

 

Tearing your muscle running is a bit different than a foreign object hitting and breaking your arm.

[goonys evil twin]

I couldn't disagree more. Some things are flukes. You first have to show that Nomar's injury history has anything to do with the current injury before a causal link can be established.

 

You do not have to show that link.

 

If a corporation repeatedly misses earnings estimates, but each time they do so there is a seemingly innocent reason why, do we say it's a healthy company.

 

The trend is your friend. Anybody who was genuinely surprised that Nomar suffered a serious injury in 2005 should be ashamed of themselves.

Then you cannot exclude Prior from your analysis. You can't call Prior's elbow "flukish" because he has a history as well.

 

A history of getting hit by a line drive?

 

No, Prior's linedrive injury was a fluke. His other stuff wasn't. Nomar's groin was not a fluke. If he broke a hand by a pitched ball, I'd call that a fluke.

 

There's a pretty clear difference, and it's not difficult to see.

[nilodnayr]

I couldn't disagree more. Some things are flukes. You first have to show that Nomar's injury history has anything to do with the current injury before a causal link can be established.

 

You do not have to show that link.

 

If a corporation repeatedly misses earnings estimates, but each time they do so there is a seemingly innocent reason why, do we say it's a healthy company.

 

The trend is your friend. Anybody who was genuinely surprised that Nomar suffered a serious injury in 2005 should be ashamed of themselves.

Then you cannot exclude Prior from your analysis. You can't call Prior's elbow "flukish" because he has a history as well.

 

Tearing your muscle running is a bit different than a foreign object hitting and breaking your arm.

 

Does Nomar have a history of groin problems? Muscle problems? Conditioning problems? If his achillies was the problem, Id say fine, that is somewhat expected. Anybody who genuinely expected Nomar to suffer a serious injury in 2005 not related to his achilies is ridiculous.

[Magnetic Curses]

as long as bradley plays 140+ games and produces like he usually does, i'll leave the cops to sort out his personal life.

 

what about his altercations with the fans, managment & teamates? with pie in the minors, i would prefer a stopgap like lofton myself.

 

we got rid of the "troublemakers" last year, it didn't help.

[Mizzou]

Lofton's in for a steep decline when his BABIP catches up to him. If LA really is interested in moving Bradley, we should be all over that.

 

bradley is a major head case (not to mention a wife beater). no thanks.

 

He's also one of the most productive CF in baseball, is reasonably cheap and pretty young, not to mention possibly available.

 

1. Lofton has been "in for a decline" for several years now, and it just hasn't happened.

 

2. You really think Hendry would go after a guy like Bradley after dumping all the "problem players" last year? I don't see it happening.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Lofton's in for a steep decline when his BABIP catches up to him. If LA really is interested in moving Bradley, we should be all over that.

 

bradley is a major head case (not to mention a wife beater). no thanks.

 

He's also one of the most productive CF in baseball, is reasonably cheap and pretty young, not to mention possibly available.

 

1. Lofton has been "in for a decline" for several years now, and it just hasn't happened.

 

2. You really think Hendry would go after a guy like Bradley after dumping all the "problem players" last year? I don't see it happening.

 

I bet you eleventy billion dollars Lofton regresses next year. This year, and this year alone, is way out of whack with his BABIP numbers. His luck this year is masking his diminishing skills.

 

I don't know if Hendry would/will go after a guy like Bradley, but I can always hope he will since it may/will be the best option.

[Tim]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

[Mark_R]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

[Tim]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

Nothing but the knowledge that he's a much better player than he's shown this season. And I firmly believe that Lofton could really fall off a cliff at any time, too. In general, I'd rather be hoping that a young player will recapture his form from the past couple of years than hope an old player doesn't experience the decline his peripheral numbers point to.

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

Nothing but the knowledge that he's a much better player than he's shown this season. And I firmly believe that Lofton could really fall off a cliff at any time, too. In general, I'd rather be hoping that a young player will recapture his form from the past couple of years than hope an old player doesn't experience the decline his peripheral numbers point to.

 

you're falling into the talent-wins-out trap. talent doesn't determine performance. baseball history is littered with guys who had all the athletic ability/talent in the world who didn't put up the numbers. billy beane anyone? :wink:

[don_kessinger_was_good]

EDIT: You've been clamoring for the Cubs to cut Patterson because of his performance this year, even though he has been fairly good for a CF in the past. Why does the opposite hold true for Pierre?

 

Patterson has been fairly good for a CF in the past?? LOL!!! He's had one fluke six week stretch of good baseball in a 5-year career.

 

The opposite holds true for Pierre because already in his career--he came up to the big leagues the same time as Patterson! (2000)--he has three times put more than 200 hits up in a year, three times put an OBP of 360 or better on the board out of the leadoff spot, and EVERY year (including this one) put 45 or more SBs on the board. He had an off year. The evidence suggests he's capable of much more, unlike Patterson.

[XZero771679666304]

EDIT: You've been clamoring for the Cubs to cut Patterson because of his performance this year, even though he has been fairly good for a CF in the past. Why does the opposite hold true for Pierre?

 

Patterson has been fairly good for a CF in the past?? LOL!!! He's had one fluke six week stretch of good baseball in a 5-year career.

 

The opposite holds true for Pierre because already in his career--he came up to the big leagues the same time as Patterson! (2000)--he has three times put more than 200 hits up in a year, three times put an OBP of 360 or better on the board out of the leadoff spot, and EVERY year (including this one) put 45 or more SBs on the board. He had an off year. The evidence suggests he's capable of much more, unlike Patterson.

 

The total numbers he posted last year were above average for center fielders. He was very good for 10 weeks in '03. Other than your unabashed hatred of him, there was nothing to suggest that he would be as awful has he has been this year. Now at this point I am totally in favor of getting rid of him, but your assessments of him are riddled with hyperbole and personal bias.

 

And what "evidence" suggests Pierre is capable of "much more"? If anything, we have seen the best Juan Pierre is capable of. If we wanted a .350+ OBP out of our leadoff hitter, Walker should have been it. And the ability to steal bases is a bit superfluous on a Baker managed team. Pierre's SB percentage is nothing to get excited over anyway. Not to mention Pierre is a average defensive CF at best, with a feeble arm.

 

I'd just trade Patterson, sign Furcal and a stopgap CF until Pie is ready. I want no part of Juan Pierre.

Edited September 24, 2005 by XZero77

[XZero771679666304]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

Nothing but the knowledge that he's a much better player than he's shown this season. And I firmly believe that Lofton could really fall off a cliff at any time, too. In general, I'd rather be hoping that a young player will recapture his form from the past couple of years than hope an old player doesn't experience the decline his peripheral numbers point to.

 

I don't want Lofton either. But I have been a big supporter of Corey in the past, and I am through with him. If he was the least bit serious about becoming a good or even decent player, he would have agreed to winter ball with zero hesitation. I cannot rationalize his behavior anymore, and if he keeps screwing himself at this rate I expect to see him out of the game in a few years.

[Larry Horse]

I expect it will take a base of 5-7 million with incentives that could push the deal to 6-9 million.

 

I think the Cubs are the leaders for his services if they choose to go that route. I also think the White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, and Dodgers could get into the sweepstakes.

 

Way too much money. I would offer him 2.5 to 4 mil with incentives.

 

He has a lot to prove, and this brief stint from the DL doesn't do it for me.

 

I will go on record as saying there's no way he signs that cheap. The only question about him is health. He's shown since he's come back from the DL that he can perform. Somebody, whether its the Cubs or not, will guarantee him five million. That I am sure of, and I'd probably put the figure closer to seven million. I think the Cubs have a better chance of getting him at five than any other team would. It's not a question of whether he still has the skills; it's a question of whether he can stay healthy. The history of FA signings indicate there's no way that Nomar signs for less than five. Look at the contracts that have been handed out to players over the years. No way Nomar signs for less than five.

 

If the Cubs get him for five, fine. If somebody wants to guarantee him 7, God bless em. I hope it's not the Cubs. He still has yet to play a full season in a Cub uniform.

[nilodnayr]

I expect it will take a base of 5-7 million with incentives that could push the deal to 6-9 million.

 

I think the Cubs are the leaders for his services if they choose to go that route. I also think the White Sox, Mariners, Rangers, and Dodgers could get into the sweepstakes.

 

Way too much money. I would offer him 2.5 to 4 mil with incentives.

 

He has a lot to prove, and this brief stint from the DL doesn't do it for me.

 

I will go on record as saying there's no way he signs that cheap. The only question about him is health. He's shown since he's come back from the DL that he can perform. Somebody, whether its the Cubs or not, will guarantee him five million. That I am sure of, and I'd probably put the figure closer to seven million. I think the Cubs have a better chance of getting him at five than any other team would. It's not a question of whether he still has the skills; it's a question of whether he can stay healthy. The history of FA signings indicate there's no way that Nomar signs for less than five. Look at the contracts that have been handed out to players over the years. No way Nomar signs for less than five.

 

If the Cubs get him for five, fine. If somebody wants to guarantee him 7, God bless em. I hope it's not the Cubs. He still has yet to play a full season in a Cub uniform.

 

If you think about what you can get for seven million, hes still not a bad deal at all. The higher the guaranteed salary just means the more he has to produce to get to his incentives. And frankly, the difference between a 5M nomar and a 7M Nomar is replacing neifi with cedeno and macias with fontenot. We would hope that he would stay healthy and reach his incentives and could really be the difference maker (he could have been this year). And if he does reach the incentives then his bas guaranteed salary really doesnt matter. If he gets injured and doesnt play, then that extra 2M we would lose would not be the difference maker.

[Neuby]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

Nothing but the knowledge that he's a much better player than he's shown this season. And I firmly believe that Lofton could really fall off a cliff at any time, too. In general, I'd rather be hoping that a young player will recapture his form from the past couple of years than hope an old player doesn't experience the decline his peripheral numbers point to.

 

Even if Corey recaptures his "form" where looking at a guy who strikes out way too much, doesn't get on base, can't sacrafice a runner, and makes dumb mistakes on the basebaths all for around what close to 3 million nexr year? Please guys this kid has to thing about playing winter ball this offseason after he turned it past offseasons. Let the love affair end.

[Tim]

I'd really rather give Corey another shot than going with Lofton. Heck, I'd rather give JHJr CF next year than Lofton.

What makes you think Corey isn't going to be awful again next season?

Nothing but the knowledge that he's a much better player than he's shown this season. And I firmly believe that Lofton could really fall off a cliff at any time, too. In general, I'd rather be hoping that a young player will recapture his form from the past couple of years than hope an old player doesn't experience the decline his peripheral numbers point to.

 

Even if Corey recaptures his "form" where looking at a guy who strikes out way too much, doesn't get on base, can't sacrafice a runner, and makes dumb mistakes on the basebaths all for around what close to 3 million nexr year? Please guys this kid has to thing about playing winter ball this offseason after he turned it past offseasons. Let the love affair end.

LOL. I think people are mis-interpreting my position. In my original statement above, I meant the comparison of Lofton to Corey to show just how low my expectations were for Kenny in '06. I did not mean that comparison to show how high my expectations were for Corey.

[RynoRules]

EDIT: You've been clamoring for the Cubs to cut Patterson because of his performance this year, even though he has been fairly good for a CF in the past. Why does the opposite hold true for Pierre?

 

Patterson has been fairly good for a CF in the past?? LOL!!! He's had one fluke six week stretch of good baseball in a 5-year career.

 

The opposite holds true for Pierre because already in his career--he came up to the big leagues the same time as Patterson! (2000)--he has three times put more than 200 hits up in a year, three times put an OBP of 360 or better on the board out of the leadoff spot, and EVERY year (including this one) put 45 or more SBs on the board. He had an off year. The evidence suggests he's capable of much more, unlike Patterson.

 

Kess, I do not often agree with you, but if the choice is between CPatt and Pierre, give me Pierre every day and twice on Sunday.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

EDIT: You've been clamoring for the Cubs to cut Patterson because of his performance this year, even though he has been fairly good for a CF in the past. Why does the opposite hold true for Pierre?

 

Patterson has been fairly good for a CF in the past?? LOL!!! He's had one fluke six week stretch of good baseball in a 5-year career.

 

The opposite holds true for Pierre because already in his career--he came up to the big leagues the same time as Patterson! (2000)--he has three times put more than 200 hits up in a year, three times put an OBP of 360 or better on the board out of the leadoff spot, and EVERY year (including this one) put 45 or more SBs on the board. He had an off year. The evidence suggests he's capable of much more, unlike Patterson.

 

Kess, I do not often agree with you, but if the choice is between CPatt and Pierre, give me Pierre every day and twice on Sunday.

 

That isn't what I was saying. Offensively, Pierre and Patterson have been nearly equivalent the past 2 years. Patterson was better(albeit for a shorter time) in '03, and Pierre was slightly better in '04. Now both have done TERRIBLY this season. Why are we clamoring to trade for one to hit leadoff, and trying to cut the other at all costs?