You know, we aren't really out of the wild card...

[Derwood]

Baseball Prospectus gives us a 1.03662% chance at the wild card, but not to worry. Last year, with about 10 days to go in the season they gave us a 70+% chance at the wild card, so what do they know.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

 

Well there was no percentage that could account for LaTroy

[JGalt73]

I don't remember who said it, but I agree with them: Let's just hope for the Cubs to finish above .500, so we can have back-to-back-to-back winning seasons (as long as none of the credit goes to Dusty). If we happen to fall ass-first into the playoffs as well (as that's the only way we're gonna do it), so be it. The other thing we can hope for is for Dusty to experience a revelation and give up baseball to found his own religion, and take Macias and Neifi along as his disciples. And oh yeah. Also for Hendry to pick up Brian Giles and (at least) some bullpen help.

 

Are you kidding me? If the Cubs get to .500, they will probably extend Dusty for 10 more years. He will get all of the credit, just like he has gotten most of the credit for the last 2 years of over .500 ball. I'm still watching and rooting for the Cubs, but any success will be proof that Dusty's the man and his system is working.

 

Dusty in the Trib - "From the stuff we went through, from different trials, different people, a young bullpen, an injured pitching staff, injured keystone, that still ain't too bad. It's not where we wanted to be, but when was the last time they had three winning records in a row? How long ago was that?"

 

I was never in the "let's hope the Cubs lose them all" camp, until now.

[cubbieinexile]

Its one thing to finish above .500 when you have Augie Ojeda, Zuleta, Brown, Tapani, Morandini, and Trachsel. It's quite another thing to finish with 82 or 83 wins when you have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Garciaparra, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. This team might as well win 65 games anything less then the playoffs is meaningless for a team with this talent. If anything I would rather have them win 65 games instead of 83 that way at least Dusty would be gone and Hendry and Andy would realize that there is more work to be done, Not just switching out the bench or some such trivial thing like that.

[biittner77]

Its one thing to finish above .500 when you have Augie Ojeda, Zuleta, Brown, Tapani, Morandini, and Trachsel. It's quite another thing to finish with 82 or 83 wins when you have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Garciaparra, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. This team might as well win 65 games anything less then the playoffs is meaningless for a team with this talent. If anything I would rather have them win 65 games instead of 83 that way at least Dusty would be gone and Hendry and Andy would realize that there is more work to be done, Not just switching out the bench or some such trivial thing like that.

 

I disagree for 4 reasons:

1. Baker is back next year no matter what happens down the stretch this season.

 

2. An over .500 season is meaningful because the Cubs still need to show that they are a consistently winning franchise.

 

3. The Cubs were without much of that talent for a significant part of the season. I don't like the injuries but they sure didn't help.

 

4. Barring a miraculous 2nd place finish, I doubt anyone will praise Baker for managing to finish 82-80

[Electron Blue]

Its one thing to finish above .500 when you have Augie Ojeda, Zuleta, Brown, Tapani, Morandini, and Trachsel. It's quite another thing to finish with 82 or 83 wins when you have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Garciaparra, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. This team might as well win 65 games anything less then the playoffs is meaningless for a team with this talent. If anything I would rather have them win 65 games instead of 83 that way at least Dusty would be gone and Hendry and Andy would realize that there is more work to be done, Not just switching out the bench or some such trivial thing like that.

 

I disagree for 4 reasons:

1. Baker is back next year no matter what happens down the stretch this season.

 

2. An over .500 season is meaningful because the Cubs still need to show that they are a consistently winning franchise.

 

3. The Cubs were without much of that talent for a significant part of the season. I don't like the injuries but they sure didn't help.

 

4. Barring a miraculous 2nd place finish, I doubt anyone will praise Baker for managing to finish 82-80

 

I agree with 1-3, but I think you're way off on the 4th one, no offense intended.

 

He got all the credit for getting the first two winning records (endless quips in the paper and on TV, that it hasn't happened in 30 years), so why wouldn't they shower praise on him for doing it again. Especially when he had so many injuries and still pulled off a great September. He won't deserve the praise, but I'd bet every cent of Jose Macias's Million dollar salary that he will . . .

[otis89]

The only problem with that is, if by some miracle the Cubs do win the Wild Card, it would be because of Murton and Cedeno stepping up, and you know Dusty would sit them for CPatt and Neifi in the playoffs.

[nilodnayr]

Problem is though, we would need the NL east teams to more than beat up on each other since the Marlins going 11-10 would put them at a better record than us. We would need the Mets/Nats to do just well enough to knock the Marlins and Phillies under 500 but not well enough for them to be more than a couple games over 500.

[USSoccer]

Problem is though, we would need the NL east teams to more than beat up on each other since the Marlins going 11-10 would put them at a better record than us. We would need the Mets/Nats to do just well enough to knock the Marlins and Phillies under 500 but not well enough for them to be more than a couple games over 500.

 

It would take a mathematical anomaly for the ages to have the teams ahead of us lose in exactly the right order and fashion PLUS us maybe lose 1 or 2 more games the rest of the way for us to win the WC.

 

Before that last 8 game bender I thought that if we could be within 4 going into the last series with Houston we would have a shot. Now, even if we're 4 in back of Houston we might be 4 in back of another team.

 

Is it even mathmatically possible for us to climb over all these teams? What are their schedules?

[nilodnayr]

Problem is though, we would need the NL east teams to more than beat up on each other since the Marlins going 11-10 would put them at a better record than us. We would need the Mets/Nats to do just well enough to knock the Marlins and Phillies under 500 but not well enough for them to be more than a couple games over 500.

 

It would take a mathematical anomaly for the ages to have the teams ahead of us lose in exactly the right order and fashion PLUS us maybe lose 1 or 2 more games the rest of the way for us to win the WC.

 

Before that last 8 game bender I thought that if we could be within 4 going into the last series with Houston we would have a shot. Now, even if we're 4 in back of Houston we might be 4 in back of another team.

 

Is it even mathmatically possible for us to climb over all these teams? What are their schedules?

 

Possible? Yes. Probable? Absolutely not (as referenced by the BP percentage). Our problem isnt the Astros, we hold our on destiny there, the problem is in the East where the two lower teams would need to do just well enough but not too well against the two top teams.

[Tim]

Its one thing to finish above .500 when you have Augie Ojeda, Zuleta, Brown, Tapani, Morandini, and Trachsel. It's quite another thing to finish with 82 or 83 wins when you have Prior, Wood, Zambrano, Garciaparra, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. This team might as well win 65 games anything less then the playoffs is meaningless for a team with this talent. If anything I would rather have them win 65 games instead of 83 that way at least Dusty would be gone and Hendry and Andy would realize that there is more work to be done, Not just switching out the bench or some such trivial thing like that.

CIE,

 

It seems to me that I remember some strong critiques on your part of Hendry's job putting this team together. Here, you seem to be implying that the team should have won far more than 82-83 games if it had been managed properly.

 

Is my memory off or am I missing something in the logic?

[Catman61]

There are 2 trends for Houston that you fail to consider

1) Of Houston's 21 remaining games, 11 are at the Juice Box, where HOU has the 3rd best home record in MLB.

2) since the ASB, the Astros have the best ERA in MLB

 

recent trends?

last 10

Cubs 7-3

Astros 7-3

[cubbieinexile]

What I am saying is that the core is strong but that the arms and legs that were attached to it were not good enough. I get this feeling that after 2003 Hendry sor of figured that all he had to do was put the finishing touches on the team. 5th OF'er here, backup catcher there, 12th man in the pen, so on and so on. I get this feeling that for whatever reason he thinks this team just needs some polishing. I for one do not agree with that nor have I agreed with that since 2001.

 

A team that has a core of talent that is as good as Barrett, Ramirez, Lee, Walker, Prior, and Wood should win more games. Unfortunately for us Hendry went the safe route and got mediocrity for the rest outside of a gamble on Nomar at SS. Its like the late 60's Cubs all over again. 4 HOF'ers (looking at you Ronnie) a decent player here and there and then a bunch of filler.

 

This team should be getting 95+ wins a year but Hendry is stocking this team with a bunch of guys that drag the Cubs down to 80+ wins a year.

[HoopsCubs]

Call me nuts, but... highly unlikely, but we still have a chance in the wild card :D

 

Possible? Yes. Probable? No.

 

Having said that, I am still watching our games as actively as April/May because I too believe these guys are going to play in September like that '03 team did, and make things very, very interesting for the Astros in that 4-game season ending series. Per my quick calculations, the Cubs need to go 17-3 in these last 20 to get to 87-75, and only one of those 3 losses can be to Houston. Meanwhile, the Mets and Nationals need to play tough against the Marlins.

[biittner77]

He got all the credit for getting the first two winning records (endless quips in the paper and on TV, that it hasn't happened in 30 years), so why wouldn't they shower praise on him for doing it again. Especially when he had so many injuries and still pulled off a great September. He won't deserve the praise, but I'd bet every cent of Jose Macias's Million dollar salary that he will . . .

 

I can see your point but this year is different than 2003. The difference is the expectations. The Cubs were supposed to make the playoffs, not rally to finish .500. Baker may get credit because the team didn't quit on him down the stretch. If he does I don't have a problem with that. As much as I dislike Baker ther are lots of managers whose players would have mailed it in after that last 8 game losing streak.

[MadDog]

I dunno y but i somehow have a feeling everything will work-out for the cubs. well at least i ''Believe" it will.

[Sarcastic]

I dunno y but i somehow have a feeling everything will work-out for the cubs. well at least i ''Believe" it will.

 

When has everything ever worked out for the Cubs?

 

It is technically possible, but I'd have to agree with BP that their chances of making it are about 1%.

[frostwyrm]

I dunno y but i somehow have a feeling everything will work-out for the cubs. well at least i ''Believe" it will.

 

When has everything ever worked out for the Cubs?

 

It is technically possible, but I'd have to agree with BP that their chances of making it are about 1%.

 

0.72791% as of this morning.

[cjbucks]

Here's what will happen - through some weird stuff the cubs will get to within oh lets say 4 games of the Astro's going into the final 6 games of the season ( 2 with Pit followed by 4 with Hou). We will all get our underwear in a bundle discussing our chances and hoping for a miracle, some of us will dust off our believe bracelets, etc.,etc...... you know the routine we've all been through it several times this season and other seasons. We will then drop both games to the Pirates at Wrigley, win game one in Houston and then drop the final three games to finish 7 or 8 games out of the wildcard.

 

Nah..... I'm not going through that. I just like to watch baseball games and I'm not going to attach any type of expectation to any of our games. Check that.......I do expect that most games we will find one of our lowest obp guys in the 1 or 2 hole.

[rynesrevenge0206]

5.5 games back now!!!!

[Wheelimus]

Just like to note that we matched what I thought we'd have to do against San Fran, and the Astros are on pace to do worse than I thought they'd do against the Brewers, assuming they don't get a sweep in their final series.

 

And the Astros draw Dontrelle Willis tomorrow :lol:

 

Hehe, damn, this is some good kool-aid....

[MeatampPotatoesMan]

I dunno y but i somehow have a feeling everything will work-out for the cubs. well at least i ''Believe" it will.

 

When has everything ever worked out for the Cubs?

 

It is technically possible, but I'd have to agree with BP that their chances of making it are about 1%.

 

0.72791% as of this morning.

 

it's actually worth dropping a 20 on the cubs to make the playoffs. :lol:

[Marco4]

I dunno y but i somehow have a feeling everything will work-out for the cubs. well at least i ''Believe" it will.

 

When has everything ever worked out for the Cubs?

 

It is technically possible, but I'd have to agree with BP that their chances of making it are about 1%.

 

0.72791% as of this morning.

 

it's actually worth dropping a 20 on the cubs to make the playoffs. :lol:

The joy of the Cubs making the playoffs at this point would far outweigh the monetary aspect.

 

No, wait. That would be roughly, say - if its 0.7%, that's about 150/1, right? - $20 at 150/1 would pay back $3020. That's £1,640 in my money. It might be worth it.

[Balsa]

I'd place that bet in a second.

[CubfaninCA]

Will Ramirez return this year?? Would be interesting to see the Cubs offense at full force for once. My guess is that Dusty would start Neifi in LF though.

 

Just need to win 19 in a row now. :o

[E.J.]

Will Ramirez return this year?? Would be interesting to see the Cubs offense at full force for once. My guess is that Dusty would start Neifi in LF though.

 

Just need to win 19 in a row now. :o

 

No way Dusty would play Neifi in LF. Now CF on the otherhand...