Can we win with 3 rookie starters in 06?

[Nobody youd want to know]

Over the last few weeks I've convinced myself that what the Cubs need more than anything is 5 very good starting pitchers. No more Glendon Rusch; no more flavor-of-the-week Koronka/Mitre/Hill/whoever. Five solid guys who you can count on for 90% of your starts in a season.

 

To get that means you're going to have to pray that your low-paid rookie hitters can do the job. I know most of the posters on this board think the Cubs' offense already sucks, but statistically it's actually top 5 or so; get some OBP out of your rookies and I think we're as good if not better.

 

So here we go: First you sign AJ Burnett. If so, tho, Wood becomes the closer; between the two of them there's too much of an injury risk in the rotation.

 

Then you pry Barry Zito out of Billy's hands; I think a package of Murton, Mitre + another arm would do it. I'd hate to get rid of Murton, but he's got trade value right now, and we have a guy in AA who has the same plate discipline, but better power, in Brandon Sing.

 

That's a rotation of Prior/Zambrano/Zito/Burnett/Maddux, which, conservatively speaking, would kick *ss.

 

Now, for the risky part--the offense. I think we go all-out for Brian Giles, and sign a backup veteran LH left-fielder to spell Sing. And we let the rookies play.

 

The lineup:

 

SS-Cedeno

2B-Walker

RF-Giles

1B-Lee

3B-Ramirez

LF-Sing

C-Barrett

CF-Pie

 

Cedeno's not a prototypical leadoff guy, but I think he can easily hit .270 with an OBP of .340, at least. Defensively, he upgrades the INF significantly. Sing needs to be brought up tomorrow and put in LF. If he can handle it, he's at least a platoon guy, at best he gets the majority of ABs, and hits 25-30 dingers. As for Pie, I worry about bringing him up so early, but he's ready defensively, and that's what the Cubs need most. I'd tell him not to worry about hitting, just learn.

 

I'd make one other FA move if possible--sign Ramon Hernandez and trade Barrett. I like Barrett's bat, but not his defense. Ramon brings outstanding D and he hits almost as well as Barrett.

 

That's a winning ballclub. Have at it.

[wekse]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

 

Hey, that sounds like a good idea!

[synergy]

sorry but with that lineup that's a guaranteed last-place finish. sure the pitching is good. but the hitters will be shut out. Have you watched Sing? Yes Sing's improved but he's not major league ready. He needs 1 more year. He needs to cut down on strikeouts. Just because he does well in AAA doesn't mean he can succeed in the majors. Just ask Dubois, Glenallen Hill. The only 2 rookies that will be starting or should start next year are Cedeno and Murton. pie maybe later in the year. Pie isn't ready. He will be Corey Patterson II all over again.

[EricG]

Plan A: Sign Giles. Start Murton in LF and Cedeno at SS.

Plan B: Sign Nomar at SS, and see if Burnitz will take a pay cut to stay.

[rawaction]

Plan A: Sign Giles. Start Murton in LF and Cedeno at SS.

Plan B: Sign Nomar at SS, and see if Burnitz will take a pay cut to stay.

 

No to Burnitz.

 

RF/LF- Sign Giles, trade for Manny, trade for Dunn, trade for Huff, trade for Floyd, or trade for Ibanez (or similar). Could do any combo of 2 not including the first 2 names.

 

SS- Re-sign Nomar, trade for Lugo, get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and CF and start Cedeno at SS.

 

CF- keep Hairston in CF, sign Randy Winn (or similar not named Lofton), get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and SS and start Patterson in CF....until Pie is ready.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

CF- keep Hairston in CF, sign Randy Winn (or similar not named Lofton), get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and SS and start Patterson in CF....until Pie is ready.

 

So you want Winn or similar in CF, but if you can't make sure to get above average OBP guys at the corners and SS? I'm having trouble making sense of that.

[Nobody youd want to know]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

 

Well, Jim Hendry thinks he's ML-ready. I bet Oneri does too. Can you explain why you don't want him in the ML next year?

 

sorry but with that lineup that's a guaranteed last-place finish. sure the pitching is good. but the hitters will be shut out. Have you watched Sing? Yes Sing's improved but he's not major league ready. He needs 1 more year. He needs to cut down on strikeouts. Just because he does well in AAA doesn't mean he can succeed in the majors. Just ask Dubois, Glenallen Hill. The only 2 rookies that will be starting or should start next year are Cedeno and Murton. pie maybe later in the year. Pie isn't ready. He will be Corey Patterson II all over again.

 

I humbly disagree. What most posters here fail to acknowledge is that the current Cubs offense is one of the best in the NL. And what I've proposed takes nothing away, and adds OBP and much better defense.

 

For example, in the outfield, I think Sing will easily equal the pathetic numbers our LFs have put up this year, and draw twice as many walks. Giles is a lock to better Burnitz's numbers, with a much better OBP. And Pie can't do any worse than Corey's .225 BA. In the IF, the only change is at SS, and I'd bet the farm Cedeno can do better than Neifi's .701 OPS (Cedeno's at .702 right now).

 

Plan A: Sign Giles. Start Murton in LF and Cedeno at SS.

Plan B: Sign Nomar at SS, and see if Burnitz will take a pay cut to stay.

 

Plan A sounds good--I like Murton a lot, I just think he's a little bit of a 'tweener--not enough power for a corner IF, not enough fielding for CF.

 

As for Plan B, those who like Nomar don't realize he's part of the problem--even when healthy, his OBP has hovered around the .320 mark, and his defense just stinks. And Burnitz is a classic Cubs FA signing--getting old, but showing just enough to not be considered a flat-out bust.

 

F/LF- Sign Giles, trade for Manny, trade for Dunn, trade for Huff, trade for Floyd, or trade for Ibanez (or similar). Could do any combo of 2 not including the first 2 names.

 

SS- Re-sign Nomar, trade for Lugo, get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and CF and start Cedeno at SS.

 

CF- keep Hairston in CF, sign Randy Winn (or similar not named Lofton), get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and SS and start Patterson in CF....until Pie is ready.

 

Now that's a great team... um... I think...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

 

Well, Jim Hendry thinks he's ML-ready. I bet Oneri does too. Can you explain why you don't want him in the ML next year?

 

Felix's plate discipline is worse than Patterson's was when he was at AA. Add in the fact that he's still only 20, and never really put up good-great power numbers until this year, I think that he needs more time to repeat his power and work on his discipline.

[Brian]

the only rookies that should be considered for starting 8 positions are Cedeno & Murton.

[biittner77]

If your plan is to start Cedeno and Murton or Sing in the OF, you'll need to fire Dusty Baker first.

 

The most logical course of action in CF is to start the season with Patterson. If he can somehow figure out how to use his talent he will be very valuable. If he continues to flail away he at least buys time for Pie to work out some of his issues at AAA. I keep seeing the argument to bring up Pie and not worry about his offense. If offense from CF is a bonus than why not take a chance on Patterson turning it around?

 

If starting the year with Patterson isn't appealing, than start the year with Greenberg. Perhaps Greenberg isn't ready either but given a choice of rushing Pie or inserting Greenberg I'd rather take my chances that Greenberg won't ruin his career by playing in the majors next year.

 

If Murton is on the team I want he and Walker to bat 1-2 and don't particularly care in which order. With Baker's love of balance, Walker 2nd makes more sense.

 

LF- Murton

2nd Walker

1st Lee

RF LH hitting acquisition

3rd Ramirez

C Barrett

CF Patterson/ Greenberg/ Bacon

SS Cedeno

[AlwaysaCub]

I agree with the basic premise of the first post, that the pitching needs more work than the offense. Look, beyond Big Z who can we trust? Prior now routinely pitches the basic quality start. Well, they are "quality", but if you do one of those every time out you have a 4.50 ERA, which is about twice the ERA we expect from Prior. Who the F% knows about KWood, Maddog is old and not getting any better like Clemens, and Rusch cannot pitch in the rotation for an extended period. So we go into next year with 1.5 pieces of known quantity (the half is Prior), and 3.5 questionables or question marks. That's no way to get to the playoffs.

[erik316wttn]

Start playing the kids this year and next, and set the foundation for a consistent good team. I have no problem with Murton, Cedeno, Hill, Sing, Pie, Guzman, JVB, Greenberg, Bacon, etc playing once they're ready.

 

But if you'd do that you'd need to hire a rookie-friendly manager.

[AC036198]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

Sounds like Dusty Baker. :roll: :roll:

But seriously, I think due to his injury, Pie should start the season in AAA, then come up around May.

[Roast]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

Sounds like Dusty Baker. :roll: :roll:

But seriously, I think due to his injury, Pie should start the season in AAA, then come up around May.

 

Yea, that or an intelligent fan who realizes bringing him up to early is very risky.

[AC036198]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

Sounds like Dusty Baker. :roll: :roll:

But seriously, I think due to his injury, Pie should start the season in AAA, then come up around May.

 

Yea, that or an intelligent fan who realizes bringing him up to early is very risky.

Agreed. The fans can't keep putting management in a "dammed if I do, dammed if I don't" spot. They're going to push to bring Pie up, and then they'll drive him out of town when he doesn't produce.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

i don't want Pie starting in the majors next year.

 

Well, Jim Hendry thinks he's ML-ready. I bet Oneri does too. Can you explain why you don't want him in the ML next year?

 

Because he's not ready? As another poster pointed out already, he has worse plate discipline than Corey had at AA. He only has a half season at AA or higher, he'd get eaten up by big league pitchers.

 

the only rookies that should be considered for starting 8 positions are Cedeno & Murton.

 

Sing should be considered.

[EricG]

give Greenberg and Murton a shot out of spring training, Cedeno if a SS isn't signed and let Pie and Sing start out in AAA. A lot depends on what free agents can be brought in. Or what trades can be made. Too many holes to fill.

[rawaction]

CF- keep Hairston in CF, sign Randy Winn (or similar not named Lofton), get above average OBP players in RF, LF, and SS and start Patterson in CF....until Pie is ready.

 

So you want Winn or similar in CF, but if you can't make sure to get above average OBP guys at the corners and SS? I'm having trouble making sense of that.

 

Sorry, I thought Winn had a lot better numbers than he does....scratch that.

[abuck1220]

 

Well, Jim Hendry thinks he's ML-ready. I bet Oneri does too. Can you explain why you don't want him in the ML next year?

 

jim hendry also thought glendon rusch was a good option to start. he also thought signing mike remlinger was a good idea. he also thought hiring dusty baker was a good idea. in short, jim hendry has shown that what he thinks isn't necessarily right.

 

i dont' know why people operate under the assumption that just because a guy is a gm/manager, he knows what he's talking about. last time i checked, the cubs have a 90+ million payroll and are fighting to stay out of 5th place. i don't know why you give a guy in charge of that mess so much deference.

[Nobody youd want to know]

i dont' know why people operate under the assumption that just because a guy is a gm/manager, he knows what he's talking about. last time i checked, the cubs have a 90+ million payroll and are fighting to stay out of 5th place. i don't know why you give a guy in charge of that mess so much deference.

 

Because he does it for a living? Because he, and his staff, are the closest people to the players, and presumably have a lot more institutional knowledge than anyone on this board?

 

I don't know why people operate under the assumption that because a GM makes some mistakes, he doesn't know anything. Name me a GM who hasn't made mistakes. They're dealing with people, and people are extremely variable in their abilities and their reactions to new and stressful situations.

 

I think Hendry is a very good GM, even while admitting he's made his share of mistakes. But whose opinion do you trust more, someone whose staff works with the players every day, or someone on an anonymous internet message board who probably has never had contact with the player in question, much less run a sports organization?

[AAApittsburgh]

i dont' know why people operate under the assumption that just because a guy is a gm/manager, he knows what he's talking about. last time i checked, the cubs have a 90+ million payroll and are fighting to stay out of 5th place. i don't know why you give a guy in charge of that mess so much deference.

 

Because he does it for a living? Because he, and his staff, are the closest people to the players, and presumably have a lot more institutional knowledge than anyone on this board?

 

I don't know why people operate under the assumption that because a GM makes some mistakes, he doesn't know anything. Name me a GM who hasn't made mistakes. They're dealing with people, and people are extremely variable in their abilities and their reactions to new and stressful situations.

 

I think Hendry is a very good GM, even while admitting he's made his share of mistakes. But whose opinion do you trust more, someone whose staff works with the players every day, or someone on an anonymous internet message board who probably has never had contact with the player in question, much less run a sports organization?

So, I guess with that logic we can't criticize Baker either. The guy has been managing for a while. Dude knows what he's doing. :roll:

[Nobody youd want to know]

Player development, I trust Hendry.

 

Best brand of toothpick, I trust Baker.

[abuck1220]

i dont' know why people operate under the assumption that just because a guy is a gm/manager, he knows what he's talking about. last time i checked, the cubs have a 90+ million payroll and are fighting to stay out of 5th place. i don't know why you give a guy in charge of that mess so much deference.

 

Because he does it for a living? Because he, and his staff, are the closest people to the players, and presumably have a lot more institutional knowledge than anyone on this board?

 

I don't know why people operate under the assumption that because a GM makes some mistakes, he doesn't know anything. Name me a GM who hasn't made mistakes. They're dealing with people, and people are extremely variable in their abilities and their reactions to new and stressful situations.

 

I think Hendry is a very good GM, even while admitting he's made his share of mistakes. But whose opinion do you trust more, someone whose staff works with the players every day, or someone on an anonymous internet message board who probably has never had contact with the player in question, much less run a sports organization?

 

so just because he does it for a living he's automatically good at it? you've never worked w/ anyone that sucks at their job?

 

i don't care how much contact he has with his players. fact is, he has a top payroll and the team SUCKS. SUCKS. it's not that they're just not living up to expectations...they're awful. i'm not saying hendry's never done well, but i can't say how anyone can say he's a 'very good' gm given the team's failures over the past two seasons.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'll put up with Corey ONE more year, just until I know Pie will get another full season in the minors. He needs it to work on his plate discipline.

 

Sing will mash, him in LF with Murton in RF would be a nice cheap way to set up the OF. Then in 2007, Sing in LF, Pie in CF, and Murton in RF would give us our future OF.

 

Sing could probably hit .260/.380/.490 next year, and that would be damn good. I'd like to see him get a shot.

 

But I do worry about the pitching now. Remember just a couple years ago when that was something we thought we had settled for the next decade?

 

Oh I miss 2003...