Formula For the Unthinkable

[USSoccer]

Okay, today's game got me thinking, if for no other reason that, as a history guy, my mind makes connections. We're in, as has been pointed out ad nauseum, the same position roughly that Houston was in last season. Same issues-inconsistent play, spotty starting pitching, spotty offense, bad managing.

 

Cue the 4 game set with the Cardinals. Cubs win big, ARam gets hit in the 9th by a RHP.

 

Lest I just rest on pointing out the parallels between this series and the Cubs/Astros tilt last August where we "woke them up", let me run through some rules and preconditions for getting back into the race.

 

#1-No contention talk until the team is above .500. Simple rule. You can't consider yourself a contender (unless you're in the NL West) until you are a winning club. So that's a precondition for the rest of this mess.

 

#2-Corey Patterson has to be the X-Factor. Has to be. We all know Corey is talented, and his defense alone in CF will be a big help. But he needs to bring the stick. He took a walk today, which made me spit up diet coke at my desk. If he gets hot, suddenly our offense becomes that more potent.

 

#3-Z and Prior have to pitch lights out. No more 5th or 6th inning exits. They have to be the aces. Z, up until the Mets game, has been that guy, but Prior's been giving up the long ball. Those two have to win or at least put the team in a position to win every one of their starts.

 

#4-Lee and Aramis. If they hit, we win. If they don't we generally lose. They have to bring it the rest of the year, and Baker has to figure out a way to get these guys rest without sitting them very much. In blowout games, for example (like today), pull them. Sit them, especially Lee. Find creative ways to get them a break here and there, to keep them sharp.

 

#5-No more blowup starts. Maddux's start today was a great thing, since our bullpen has been used and abused, which has contributed to our recent awful stretch. Our pen is really, really shaky, so our starters have to keep us in games. They have the talent to do so. With Rusch in the rotation now, I'm more confident.

 

#6-Luck. We need baseball magic. We've lost games this year in ways I couldn't imagine. Throwing balls into the dugout after catching a line drive, botched rundowns, you name it. These things usually even out during the season, and we need some luck to fall our way. We need seeing eye singles, bloop doubles, wind blown homeruns, and generous strike zones. And solid defense. No more giving away outs.

 

#7-Matt Lawton needs to get on base. Period. Nothing really to say here beyond....

 

#8-Dusty Baker. He has the rep of being a September manager. His job may be on the line, but his reputation is teetering on the brink of joke here. He needs to prove his mettle right now. He needs to find a way to somehow overcome the fact that he's Dusty Baker, the worst in-game manager in the NL, and consistently put us in position to win games. No mroe forfiet lineups, no more using your LOOGY against a RHH, no more ignoring splits and keep the team focused and ready.

 

 

If we can do all of these things, we can put ourselves in a position to be within 4 games of Houston by the last week of the season. As bad as we were the past 10 games before today, Houston was only 5-5. They had a chance to bury us (as we did they last season), and didn't. We have many teams in front of us (as they did), but we have head to head matchups with the front runner, and the teams in the east all play each other. We have a chance. Things must break our way.

[Electron Blue]

Great post - perfect balance of hope and realistic pessimism.

 

I think you're pretty much right on in all of these assumptions. I have the most doubts about #s 6, and 8.

 

6: because, hey, we're the Cubs!

 

8: because, hey, he's Dusty!

 

Really though, here's to a resurgent month and a half \:D/

[Derwood]

Big difference between the '04 Astros and '05 Cubs:

 

The Astros started winning when they FIRED THEIR MANAGER!

[USSoccer]

Big difference between the '04 Astros and '05 Cubs:

 

The Astros started winning when they FIRED THEIR MANAGER!

 

Setting that aside, though, you can look at the two situations, and see that we're not dead yet, altough we're looking at the crash cart....

[Electron Blue]

Big difference between the '04 Astros and '05 Cubs:

 

The Astros started winning when they FIRED THEIR MANAGER!

 

And as much as I'd like to see it happen, Dusty getting fired is not going to help the Cubs chances this year, as small as they may be. It's too late for a "shake-up." If we're going to do it, it'll be done with Dusty. Ironically, if it did happen, Dusty would certainly return next year.

[Uber]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

[USSoccer]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

 

Agreed. Nomar coming to 80% of his form would be a terrific boost, but I think Corey is the more important player. He provides power, defense and speed. Nomar would be a boost more to Lee and Aramis' task of driving in runs, wheras if Corey got going, it would be like having 2 leadoff guys in the lineup.

[minnesotacubsfan]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

 

Agreed. Nomar coming to 80% of his form would be a terrific boost, but I think Corey is the more important player. He provides power, defense and speed. Nomar would be a boost more to Lee and Aramis' task of driving in runs, wheras if Corey got going, it would be like having 2 leadoff guys in the lineup.

 

if Corey got going i would be a happy happy pappy

[Electron Blue]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

 

That part you say about Aramis and Dlee is sadly very true. They are easily meeting (and with Lee, really exceeding) any expectation we could have had. But, as fans, of a (otherwise) weak team, we continue to expect more and more out of them. I remember thinking earlier this year, "Man, it's been like three days since Derrek a home run." A moment later I smiled, feeling pretty silly. :)

[Electron Blue]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

 

Agreed. Nomar coming to 80% of his form would be a terrific boost, but I think Corey is the more important player. He provides power, defense and speed. Nomar would be a boost more to Lee and Aramis' task of driving in runs, wheras if Corey got going, it would be like having 2 leadoff guys in the lineup.

 

I think todays lineup (freak luck of it's success withstanding) is a good reason to hop that Nomar and Corey can get it together. We do not want Macias and Neifi hitting 1-2.

[USSoccer]

I think Nomar goes with Corey in the X-factor slot. If Nomar and Corey are hitting, we should have a chance. If they aren't, you'd better hope Derrek and Aramis put up Bonds-esque numbers from here on out (not to say they haven't been great so far).

 

That part you say about Aramis and Dlee is sadly very true. They are easily meeting (and with Lee, really exceeding) any expectation we could have had. But, as fans, of a (otherwise) weak team, we continue to expect more and more out of them. I remember thinking earlier this year, "Man, it's been like three days since Derrek a home run." A moment later I smiled, feeling pretty silly. :)

 

Which is why Corey would be soooo important. I think he has the talent to bust out, and maybe, just maybe, going to AAA cleared his head.

 

Even if he puts up .280/.330 typye numbers it would be a huge boost to the offense.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Brenly was making a good point about a single that Corey got late in the game in that he got to two strikes and didn't throw his whole body into his swing like he used to. He was actually TRYING to put the ball in play and not kill it.

 

His swing is visually different. His hands are a little lower, and he doesn't [expletive] back as far before his swing. Granted a couple of swings he's done this, but I'm sure that's the biggest thing he's worked on.

[VicCub]

I am with you brother! Lets sweep the Cards and go from there. This season is far from over.

[CubfaninCA]

I still have hope cause I don't see anyone running away w/ the wildcard. We could see 86-88 wins taking the wildcard. However, I"m not putting much faith in Prior. The hitting's going to have to pick it up and Maddux, Rusch and the pen need to be really solid.

[rwed1]

i am so glad to see this post. i am tired of only hearing how we need to give up. we are Cub fans, we never give up! just a look at last year and the astros gives you reason to hope right there! I am still wearing my believe bracelet and i am not taken it off until D Lee does!!

[10man]

Dusty Baker, the worst in-game manager in the NL

Felipe Alou would like to disagree with you on that one.

[Careless]

Dusty Baker, the worst in-game manager in the NL

Felipe Alou would like to disagree with you on that one.

Yeah, they both agree that the pirates manager is the worst.

I mean wow, is he bad. I may bash dusty, but at least he's supposed to be good at something

[Larry Horse]

People, don't do this to yourself.

 

Houston won yesterday. I think the Cubs would have to play about .660 ball and have Houston play about .500 ball to get to 88 wins, which will not win the wildcard.

 

The season is over.....not mathematically, but realistically. The Cubs are not the Astros, the Cubs are the Cubs, and the Cubs are in their own special little baseball world.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The only way the Cubs can win the WC is if we go 35-12 or better the rest of the way. If we can do that, we might have a shot. That means we scarcely lose more than one game a week from here on out. Is it possible for a team to go 35-12 to close out the season? Yes. Is it probably or even remotely believeable that this team can? No.

[Jimy is a misspell]

Wow. Just wow.

[Jimy is a misspell]

I figured there would be a thread like this over here.

[Scott G. F.]

I figured there would be a thread like this over here.

 

Jimy, Nice to hear from you. Yes, there is reality and then there is Diehard Cubs fan reality were if theirs games to be played, the Cubs have a chance even after one win after losing 8 straght. I just want them to play good sound baseball, hustle, and play with a little pride. Do I want them to win everyday? Yes, absolutely. But the season is in so many other teams hands now other than the Cubs. last year the Cubs held all the keys to the playoffs and lost them only to see the 'stros find them and fly by the Cubs. Wild things could happen and the door is never closed on such mericals but, the light is fading.

[Jimy is a misspell]

Good post. I agree.

 

I think the hardest thing for you guys is not only that you are 7.5 back, but that you also have 5 teams in front of you.

[USSoccer]

Wow. Just wow.

 

Would you rather I posted a thread about how much the Cubs suck, and how all our players suck, and how our manager super-sucks? 'Cause there are about 200 of those around here for you to peruse if you want a fix of schadenfraude. :P

 

Seriously though, there's not much unrealism about what I wrote, Jimy. There are preconditions and 8 things that have to go right after that. That isn't pie in the sky optimism. It's a frank look at the situation our team is in.

 

I'm deadly serious about the Astros not burying us when they had the chance last week. The fact that everyone plays everyone else in the WC the rest of the way is going to be a bigger factor that you might think.

[Jimy is a misspell]

That isn't pie in the sky optimism.

 

I respectfully disagree.