Do we want Pierre?

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I'll never understand this obsession with Pierre. It's like some people just assume that he's really good.

 

FWIW, Pierre has an OPS of .746 over the last year and a half (.355/.391). Hairston has an OPS of .760 (.365/.395).

 

Those steals aren't worth the player(s) req'd to get him or the salary Pierre will command.

 

Pierre is a career .307 hitter with a .356 OBP and Walks more than he SO's.

 

Hairston is a career .262 hitter with a .335 OBP with more SO's than Walks.

 

Pierre is gold glove caliber.

 

Hairston is a back up 2B, who is playing OF.

 

 

I like Hairston too, but there really is no comparison.

How in the name of all that is holy is Pierre a gold glove caliber OF?!?!?

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/scouting?statsId=6550

 

His defense remains a huge plus at spacious Pro Player Stadium. His range allowed the Marlins to get by with Miguel Cabrera and Jeff Conine flanking him for the first four months. Pierre's arm probably precludes him from Gold Glove consideration, but he never gives up on balls in the gap and makes his share of highlight catches. His resemblance to a young Mickey Rivers remains eerie.

Oh, well if the espn profile thing says that he is a plus defender (which isn't true) then he must be a gold glove quality defender. Obviously you overlooked the part that I bolded.

[CUBZ99]

I'll never understand this obsession with Pierre. It's like some people just assume that he's really good.

 

FWIW, Pierre has an OPS of .746 over the last year and a half (.355/.391). Hairston has an OPS of .760 (.365/.395).

 

Those steals aren't worth the player(s) req'd to get him or the salary Pierre will command.

 

Pierre is a career .307 hitter with a .356 OBP and Walks more than he SO's.

 

Hairston is a career .262 hitter with a .335 OBP with more SO's than Walks.

 

Pierre is gold glove caliber.

 

Hairston is a back up 2B, who is playing OF.

 

 

I like Hairston too, but there really is no comparison.

 

I think there is quite a comparison. Pierre is no gold glove CF. Where is OPS in your discussion?

 

OPS? Sorry, but I don't think your leadoff hitters SLG % matters. If you want a homerun hitter at leadoff, fine. But most people would prefer someone who can get on base.

 

Slugging does not equal home runs. It's the ability to get past first base on your own, which is essential to scoring runs consistently. Given Pierre's low SLG and poor SB%, that makes him less valuable as a leadoff hitter.

 

 

OK, just for fun:

 

Pierre career OPS .734

 

Hairston career OPS .709

 

and BTW Hairston's pickoff rate and SB % is nothing special.

[nolanwood]

I'm sorry, but I just don't understand these comparisons of Hairston to Pierre. That is just plain crazy. Look at the stats and the facts. Pierre would definitely be an upgrade.

 

I, too, would love to see CPat get it going , but how long are we going to wait around for him to get his act together and continue to "hope"? We've been hoping for quite some time now. Meanwhile, Pierre has proven his abilities and has plenty to show for it, including lots of postseason experience and a WS ring.

 

You can't compare Pierre's role on a team to Patterson either. Patterson is DEFINITELY not a leadoff guy and never will be. Pierre is. Personally, Id love to see Cpat find his groove and continue doing what he does best - which is drive in runs and hit the long ball. He'd be a great asset to us in the 6 spot. What if Patteson gets back in the groove and we get Pierre too - that sounds like the sweetest deal to me. Cpat's big bat back in the lineup, and Pierre at the top of the order. Plus, I'd love to see those two speedsters shagging balls in the outfield together.

[CUBZ99]

I'm sorry, but I just don't understand these comparisons of Hairston to Pierre. That is just plain crazy. Look at the stats and the facts. Pierre would definitely be an upgrade.

 

I, too, would love to see CPat get it going , but how long are we going to wait around for him to get his act together and continue to "hope"? We've been hoping for quite some time now. Meanwhile, Pierre has proven his abilities and has plenty to show for it, including lots of postseason experience and a WS ring.

 

You can't compare Pierre's role on a team to Patterson either. Patterson is DEFINITELY not a leadoff guy and never will be. Pierre is. Personally, Id love to see Cpat find his groove and continue doing what he does best - which is drive in runs and hit the long ball. He'd be a great asset to us in the 6 spot. What if Patteson gets back in the groove and we get Pierre too - that sounds like the sweetest deal to me. Cpat's big bat back in the lineup, and Pierre at the top of the order. Plus, I'd love to see those two speedsters shagging balls in the outfield together.

 

I am starting to think they are arguing just for the sake of arguing.

 

Case in point, it has been repeated over and over that Pierre gets Caught Stealing alot.

 

Pierre has 26 SB this year as compared to 7 CS

Hairston 6 SB compared to 8 CS!!!!!

 

Pierre has stolen 20 more bases than Hairston and still been thrown out less.

 

There is really no comparison. Of course if you steal alot of bases you are going to get thrown out. But his rate is considerably better than Hairston.

[nolanwood]

and as I mentioned in a previous post - Pierre got off to a bad start this year - just like many other Cub favorites we all love have done the same thing. He was overworking himself and training too much, and apparently got his act together as his numbers since the end of May have been very respectable.

[cheapseats]

I, too, would love to see CPat get it going , but how long are we going to wait around for him to get his act together and continue to "hope"? We've been hoping for quite some time now. Meanwhile, Pierre has proven his abilities and has plenty to show for it, including lots of postseason experience and a WS ring.

 

So on the one hand, you don't have faith that CPatt, who is struggling, can turn things around this season, but on the other hand, you do have faith that Juan Pierre, who is stuggling, will turn things around this year. :?

[nolanwood]

I, too, would love to see CPat get it going , but how long are we going to wait around for him to get his act together and continue to "hope"? We've been hoping for quite some time now. Meanwhile, Pierre has proven his abilities and has plenty to show for it, including lots of postseason experience and a WS ring.

 

So on the one hand, you don't have faith that CPatt, who is struggling, can turn things around this season, but on the other hand, you do have faith that Juan Pierre, who is stuggling, will turn things around this year. :?

 

Pierre is not struggling, so I'm not too sure what you are referring to. Once again, he got off to a slow start and didnt kick it in until the end of May. Pierre is not playing AAA ball either - nor did he go 0 for whatever in his last stint in the big leagues. Pierre is still playing MLB baseball, still getting on base, and stealing plenty of bases....enough said. Patterson has yet to even get it together in AAA.

[1908]

I'm sorry, but I just don't understand these comparisons of Hairston to Pierre. That is just plain crazy. Look at the stats and the facts. Pierre would definitely be an upgrade.

Few have said he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hairston. At issue is how much of an upgrade he'd be and what it would likely cost to get him.

[CUBZ99]

I, too, would love to see CPat get it going , but how long are we going to wait around for him to get his act together and continue to "hope"? We've been hoping for quite some time now. Meanwhile, Pierre has proven his abilities and has plenty to show for it, including lots of postseason experience and a WS ring.

 

So on the one hand, you don't have faith that CPatt, who is struggling, can turn things around this season, but on the other hand, you do have faith that Juan Pierre, who is stuggling, will turn things around this year. :?

 

Juan Pierre has over 200 hits in 3 of last 4 years. I think he has proven himself more than Patterson. Big difference between a guy that has a career .356 OBP .307 avg. and a guy with a career .298 OBP and a .257 avg. Patterson wishes he was half the player Pierre was.

[nolanwood]

I'm sorry, but I just don't understand these comparisons of Hairston to Pierre. That is just plain crazy. Look at the stats and the facts. Pierre would definitely be an upgrade.

Few have said he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hairston. At issue is how much of an upgrade he'd be and what it would likely cost to get him.

 

I'd agree with that - but that doesnt seem to be the general consensus here at all. His numbers this year and in years past show hed be a considerable upgrade in our outfield and batting in the leadoff spot - correct?

[cheapseats]

and as I mentioned in a previous post - Pierre got off to a bad start this year - just like many other Cub favorites we all love have done the same thing. He was overworking himself and training too much, and apparently got his act together as his numbers since the end of May have been very respectable.

 

His OBP in June: .292. His numbers in July, for two weeks, have been respectable. Does that mean he's turning things around, or does that mean he's just on a hot streak?

 

And he didn't get off to a bad start this year. He had a .343 OBP and a .407 SLG in April. He was wretched in May and June. I don't buy overworking or overtraining as a reason for his performance.

 

Pierre isn't as bad as he's been this season, but he's probably not as good as he was in 2003. He would be an upgrade over Hairston, but according to VORP, his offense would probably be good for only one extra win over the course of 162 games. Why would we spend extra money and trade prospects away for a guy who might help us win one extra game over the course of a year? I'd rather spend on someone who'd make a bigger impact.

[1908]

Once again, he got off to a slow start and didnt kick it in until the end of May.

The end of May? He hit .262/.292/.355 in June, which was worse than his April.

[CUBZ99]

Once again, he got off to a slow start and didnt kick it in until the end of May.

The end of May? He hit .262/.292/.355 in June, which was worse than his April.

 

In July he has been pretty good in over 60 AB's. I would rather take the chance that he just had a bad month, than stick with a guy with a career .335 OBP who gets thrown own more times than he steal bases.

 

Hairston is a great bench player, but to think that all of the sudden he is going to be the answer to the Cubs leadoff prayers is not realistic.

[cheapseats]

Big difference between a guy that has a career .356 OBP .307 avg. and a guy with a career .298 OBP and a .257 avg. Patterson wishes he was half the player Pierre was.

 

Patterson's year was cut short in 2003, but he was playing better than Pierre at the time. Much better.

 

Patterson had a higher VORP than Pierre in 2002 as well.

 

Last year was easily Pierre's best. This year he has one of the lowest OBP of all leadoff men in baseball. His OBP is well below the NL average. If we're looking at him as a short-term fix, we're looking in the wrong place.

[1908]

July he has been pretty good in over 60 AB's. I would rather take the chance that he just had a bad month, than stick with a guy with a career .335 OBP who gets thrown own more times than he steal bases.

A bad month? He's hitting .271/.318/.359 this year.

[USSoccer]

I'm sorry, but I just don't understand these comparisons of Hairston to Pierre. That is just plain crazy. Look at the stats and the facts. Pierre would definitely be an upgrade.

Few have said he wouldn't be an upgrade over Hairston. At issue is how much of an upgrade he'd be and what it would likely cost to get him.

 

I'd agree with that - but that doesnt seem to be the general consensus here at all. His numbers this year and in years past show hed be a considerable upgrade in our outfield and batting in the leadoff spot - correct?

 

that's the word that makes the difference in the debate.

 

Consider a few things:

 

-The infield grass at Wrigley is cut longer than at Dolphins Stadium, so Pierre's bunting would be less effective.

 

-his SB% are low enough that they adversly affect his OBP; when you factor in his slugging %, it's a real blight.

 

-His OF defense is a bit below par. The overall defensive difference between Hairston and Pierre, when factoring in arm strength and accuracy, range, routes, etc is roughly equal.

 

-The Marlins would ask for a mint for Pierre, since everyone in baseball seems to think he was the reason behind their WS run in 2003. Thus, if we tried to aquire him, the price would be comparable to getting Adam Dunn. So consider that for a moment. If you're going to spend those prospects, would you rather have the leadoff hitter who will perform, at best, slightly better that the leadoff guy you already have, or the LF who would severely outperform your current LF?

 

 

That's why there's little Pierre love here. The numbers don't bear it out to be a wise aquisition. The perception of Pierre's ability will always be greater than his actual worth.

[CUBZ99]

Big difference between a guy that has a career .356 OBP .307 avg. and a guy with a career .298 OBP and a .257 avg. Patterson wishes he was half the player Pierre was.

 

Patterson's year was cut short in 2003, but he was playing better than Pierre at the time. Much better.

 

Patterson had a higher VORP than Pierre in 2002 as well.

 

Last year was easily Pierre's best. This year he has one of the lowest OBP of all leadoff men in baseball. His OBP is well below the NL average. If we're looking at him as a short-term fix, we're looking in the wrong place.

 

Neifi Perez career .269 BA .300 OBP

Corey Patterson career .257 .298 OBP

 

Patterson has shown nothing.

[Geech]

Pierre's three-year splits at Wrigley:

 

AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS

.194/.324/.194/.518

[nolanwood]

Well, I believe that it won't cost us nearly as much to get Pierre as it would Dunn - The Reds are asking for a ton for Dunn, and it appears like Florida is unloading. If I had to choose between the two, Id go with Dunn in a heartbeat. But the truth is, we've been dreaming of getting Dunn all season long and it's not going to happen.

 

I've seen some statistical errors posted for Pierre's production this year as well.

 

If Hendry can pull of acquiring Dunn without sending over our whole farm system and some MLB pitching, I'd be all for it. According to the Reds thus far, however, that isnt the case.

[CUBZ99]

 

that's the word that makes the difference in the debate.

 

Consider a few things:

 

-The infield grass at Wrigley is cut longer than at Dolphins Stadium, so Pierre's bunting would be less effective.

 

-his SB% are low enough that they adversly affect his OBP; when you factor in his slugging %, it's a real blight.

 

Pierre's SB % is a huge improvement over Hairston. 20 more SB's and still CS less than Hairston. That is 20 more singles or walks that were in essence doubles.

 

 

-His OF defense is a bit below par. The overall defensive difference between Hairston and Pierre, when factoring in arm strength and accuracy, range, routes, etc is roughly equal.

 

Pierre has much better range than Hairston. You are right Pierre doesn't have a great arm, but he is hardly lacking range.

 

-The Marlins would ask for a mint for Pierre, since everyone in baseball seems to think he was the reason behind their WS run in 2003. Thus, if we tried to aquire him, the price would be comparable to getting Adam Dunn. So consider that for a moment. If you're going to spend those prospects, would you rather have the leadoff hitter who will perform, at best, slightly better that the leadoff guy you already have, or the LF who would severely outperform your current LF?

 

Looking at their career numbers to say that Hairston is comparable to Pierre is a joke.

 

 

That's why there's little Pierre love here. The numbers don't bear it out to be a wise aquisition. The perception of Pierre's ability will always be greater than his actual worth.

 

Once again, nothing that you said backs up your point.

[USSoccer]

Well, I believe that it won't cost us nearly as much to get Pierre as it would Dunn - The Reds are asking for a ton for Dunn, and it appears like Florida is unloading. If I had to choose between the two, Id go with Dunn in a heartbeat. But the truth is, we've been dreaming of getting Dunn all season long and it's not going to happen.

 

I've seen some statistical errors posted for Pierre's production this year as well.

 

If Hendry can pull of acquiring Dunn without sending over our whole farm system and some MLB pitching, I'd be all for it. According to the Reds thus far, however, that isnt the case.

 

 

If the deal that's posted on Yahoo Sports is accurate, the Fish just unloaded Lowell and Burnett, and those were the only players there was a real need to move. They don't have a CF to replace Pierre, and I wouldn't characterize what they are doing as unloading. They're clearing room for a top OF prospect to play LF, Cabrera slides into 3B, they dump salary, aquire a decent pen arm and bench bat (Bigbie and Julio), and pick up a allegedly serviceable SP in Redman.

 

Florida is more retooling. There's still lots of time for them to get back into the race. Which means if a team wants Pierre, they'll likely listen, but they'll ask for top talent from the minors as well as a ML arm or 2.

[nolanwood]

Well, I believe that it won't cost us nearly as much to get Pierre as it would Dunn - The Reds are asking for a ton for Dunn, and it appears like Florida is unloading. If I had to choose between the two, Id go with Dunn in a heartbeat. But the truth is, we've been dreaming of getting Dunn all season long and it's not going to happen.

 

I've seen some statistical errors posted for Pierre's production this year as well.

 

If Hendry can pull of acquiring Dunn without sending over our whole farm system and some MLB pitching, I'd be all for it. According to the Reds thus far, however, that isnt the case.

 

 

If the deal that's posted on Yahoo Sports is accurate, the Fish just unloaded Lowell and Burnett, and those were the only players there was a real need to move. They don't have a CF to replace Pierre, and I wouldn't characterize what they are doing as unloading. They're clearing room for a top OF prospect to play LF, Cabrera slides into 3B, they dump salary, aquire a decent pen arm and bench bat (Bigbie and Julio), and pick up a allegedly serviceable SP in Redman.

 

Florida is more retooling. There's still lots of time for them to get back into the race. Which means if a team wants Pierre, they'll likely listen, but they'll ask for top talent from the minors as well as a ML arm or 2.

 

 

They got rid of their starting 3B, a good pitcher....and there's lots of talk that they are gonna replace McKeon as well. Retooling - unloading....whatever....they are going through some considerable changes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

that's the word that makes the difference in the debate.

 

Consider a few things:

 

-The infield grass at Wrigley is cut longer than at Dolphins Stadium, so Pierre's bunting would be less effective.

 

-his SB% are low enough that they adversly affect his OBP; when you factor in his slugging %, it's a real blight.

 

Pierre's SB % is a huge improvement over Hairston. 20 more SB's and still CS less than Hairston. That is 20 more singles or walks that were in essence doubles.

 

 

-His OF defense is a bit below par. The overall defensive difference between Hairston and Pierre, when factoring in arm strength and accuracy, range, routes, etc is roughly equal.

 

Pierre has much better range than Hairston. You are right Pierre doesn't have a great arm, but he is hardly lacking range.

 

-The Marlins would ask for a mint for Pierre, since everyone in baseball seems to think he was the reason behind their WS run in 2003. Thus, if we tried to aquire him, the price would be comparable to getting Adam Dunn. So consider that for a moment. If you're going to spend those prospects, would you rather have the leadoff hitter who will perform, at best, slightly better that the leadoff guy you already have, or the LF who would severely outperform your current LF?

 

Looking at their career numbers to say that Hairston is comparable to Pierre is a joke.

 

 

That's why there's little Pierre love here. The numbers don't bear it out to be a wise aquisition. The perception of Pierre's ability will always be greater than his actual worth.

 

Once again, nothing that you said backs up your point.

 

First of all, it has been established that through the entirety of their careers, Pierre has been better than Hairston. I don't think anyone is disputing that. Hopefully that will be the last of the comparison of their career numbers. Now, when looking at their numbers over the past two years, their most recent trend over a good sized sample, their numbers have been pretty comparable. Is the slight difference between their numbers over their most recent trend worth the players it will take to get Pierre, especially when Hairston has been better than Pierre on the season? The difference between the two isn't worth the cost, that's the argument

[USSoccer]

 

that's the word that makes the difference in the debate.

 

Consider a few things:

 

-The infield grass at Wrigley is cut longer than at Dolphins Stadium, so Pierre's bunting would be less effective.

 

-his SB% are low enough that they adversly affect his OBP; when you factor in his slugging %, it's a real blight.

 

Pierre's SB % is a huge improvement over Hairston. 20 more SB's and still CS less than Hairston. That is 20 more singles or walks that were in essence doubles.

 

 

-His OF defense is a bit below par. The overall defensive difference between Hairston and Pierre, when factoring in arm strength and accuracy, range, routes, etc is roughly equal.

 

Pierre has much better range than Hairston. You are right Pierre doesn't have a great arm, but he is hardly lacking range.

 

-The Marlins would ask for a mint for Pierre, since everyone in baseball seems to think he was the reason behind their WS run in 2003. Thus, if we tried to aquire him, the price would be comparable to getting Adam Dunn. So consider that for a moment. If you're going to spend those prospects, would you rather have the leadoff hitter who will perform, at best, slightly better that the leadoff guy you already have, or the LF who would severely outperform your current LF?

 

Looking at their career numbers to say that Hairston is comparable to Pierre is a joke.

 

 

That's why there's little Pierre love here. The numbers don't bear it out to be a wise aquisition. The perception of Pierre's ability will always be greater than his actual worth.

 

Once again, nothing that you said backs up your point.

 

-Pierre's career CS % is 36%. That's bad. While his overall percentage this year is better than Hairston's, that's partially a result of Hairston only having 8 attempts. Now, Hairston is no base stealer, and in my opinion, I'm perfectly comfortable with having my 1-2 hitters not running at all, or only in 3-2 counts, because it lessens the chance of a CS taking a baserunner away from Lee and Ramirez. I don't think the SB is as signifigant of a thing as others do. Baseball Prospectus stats bear this out, as BK has posted.

 

-Now, career numbers:

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS

773 3119 482 958 106 44 9 226 206 190 236 86 .307 .356 .378 .734

 

604 2052 274 537 113 13 30 177 183 259 100 47 .262 .335 .373 .709

 

 

Hairston has nearly as many career BB's, more career HR's, a comparable CS% (36% vs 47%), nearly as good of an OBP, comparable SLG% and OPS in about 1100 fewer AB's. What does this tell me? That Pierre benefits greatly from the infield track in Florida, which is not an advantage he's enjoy in Chicago. Fewer bunt hits would severly reduce Pierre's effectiveness, as evidenced by a guy who has 1100 fewer AB's but nearly as many walks. That is a big red flag.

 

-Regarding their defense, Hairston has a stronger arm, Pierre is faster. Push. They both take bad routes to balls. This is a draw, as I said.

 

As you can see, I made several points which back up my statement that Pierre's percieved value will always be much higher than his actual worth. If you believe them or not, I can't control, but the numbers are right there, and they don't justify paying the likely price for a marginal upgrade.

[DivineBovine]

I don't see how there's so much debate regarding Pierre vs. JHJ and gasp...Pierre vs. Patterson.

 

Pierre is definitely a better option than anyone the Cubs have now at CF. So I'd get him if the price were right, and I'd definitely put CPatt in the deal if they wanted him.