Sam Fuld

[1908]

I guess I just dont agree that he has to move quickly.

Do you agree that age relative to level is very important when evaluating the potential of a prospect?

 

He can easily start 2006 at Daytona and end at West Tenn.

Sounds good to me. I do think that Fuld needs to establish himself at AA next year at some point to have a legitimate shot at the Bigs.

 

Going 1 step at a time is fine and better than jumping someone to AA having them struggle, sending them back down to Daytona and killing their confidence and wasting a year.

Very true. I just hope it doesn't take Fuld three full seasons to reach the majors, and I suspect that was CPatterson20's point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Very true. I just hope it doesn't take Fuld three full seasons to reach the majors, and I suspect that was CPatterson20's point.

 

Yep.

[ChiefsVoice]

Very true. I just hope it doesn't take Fuld three full seasons to reach the majors, and I suspect that was CPatterson20's point.

 

Yep.

 

it probably will take him more than 3 full years unless you guys don't expect Pie, Murton, Greenberg, Walker, Harvey, Montanez or Bacon to make it in the next three years...There are a lot of Cubs OF Prospects and only 3 OF spots not to mention the fact that there are 3 others up there right now...

 

and who defines an age appropriate level? I've seen 19 year olds both blow through the MWL and struggle at the MWL. I've also seen 24-25 year olds struggle here and then somehow flip a switch at High A the next season and make the majors...and I've seen 22-23 year olds make the MWL look simple and then flat out suck and flame out at AA...

 

The point is that each individual is different and must be handled differently in regards to where they go and how fast they move. That's why they have Director of Player Developments and a lot of rovers and assistants...

[rawaction]

Very true. I just hope it doesn't take Fuld three full seasons to reach the majors, and I suspect that was CPatterson20's point.

 

Yep.

 

it probably will take him more than 3 full years unless you guys don't expect Pie, Murton, Greenberg, Walker, Harvey, Montanez or Bacon to make it in the next three years...There are a lot of Cubs OF Prospects and only 3 OF spots not to mention the fact that there are 3 others up there right now...

 

and who defines an age appropriate level? I've seen 19 year olds both blow through the MWL and struggle at the MWL. I've also seen 24-25 year olds struggle here and then somehow flip a switch at High A the next season and make the majors...and I've seen 22-23 year olds make the MWL look simple and then flat out suck and flame out at AA...

 

The point is that each individual is different and must be handled differently in regards to where they go and how fast they move. That's why they have Director of Player Developments and a lot of rovers and assistants...

 

Good points all around (last few posts). I'd like to see Fuld at AA, simply because I think he could handle it. He has the patience and bat quickness to not suffer much of a dropoff by skipping a level. And while I agree that the MWL is much tougher than the NCAA, I think that NCAA experience has to be taken into account. A college draftee has less time to stay in the minors before he has to stick on the 40-man.

[1908]

it probably will take him more than 3 full years unless you guys don't expect Pie, Murton, Greenberg, Walker, Harvey, Montanez or Bacon to make it in the next three years...There are a lot of Cubs OF Prospects and only 3 OF spots not to mention the fact that there are 3 others up there right now...

Again, I hope not for Sam's sake. 27 is old for an MLB rookie, especially for a position player.

 

and who defines an age appropriate level? I've seen 19 year olds both blow through the MWL and struggle at the MWL. I've also seen 24-25 year olds struggle here and then somehow flip a switch at High A the next season and make the majors...and I've seen 22-23 year olds make the MWL look simple and then flat out suck and flame out at AA...

There are exceptions to every rule, no doubt. Age relative to level is still a very useful evaluation tool.

 

The point is that each individual is different and must be handled differently in regards to where they go and how fast they move. That's why they have Director of Player Developments and a lot of rovers and assistants...

Very true. Here's hoping Fuld's performance over the next couple years warrants a rapid rise in the Cubs system.

[craig]

I guess I just dont agree that he has to move quickly. He can easily start 2006 at Daytona and end at West Tenn. This was just his 1st year of pro ball. Same with Eric. There is a huge MYTH on this board and elsewhere that the MWL is the same as college ball and that is just a joke. Ask anyone who has played NCAA baseball and they will tell you that the competition at Low A is a lot better. Going 1 step at a time is fine and better than jumping someone to AA having them struggle, sending them back down to Daytona and killing their confidence and wasting a year.

 

Full-A is clearly way better than college. But that's not relevant, IMO, to the Fuld question.

 

If Fuld skips one level and jumps to AA at age 24, and that's too much for him and he struggles, I would conclude that he really isn't going to be a significant big-leaguer anyway. If he can't handle that jump at that age, after hitting .320+ for the past three months, he probably isn't good enough to be a significant major leaguer. AFter hitting .320+ for the past three months, I'd think he probably is well ready to advance to AA and perform well. And if he does so, that would confirm that he can be legitimatlely viewed as a genuine prospect.

 

Obviously he can go one step, but if it's 23 at low A, 24 at high A, 25 in AA, 26 in AAA, and 27 before he reaches the majors, that would be one of the oldest major league rookies I know of. I can't think of more than one or two position players who were rookies at age 27, and who ended up being quality starting players. Some fringe guys, yes, but not many asset starters. Most likely Fuld will never be good enough to be a quality starting player. But if he's going to be an asset regular starter down the line, then I assume he'd be able to move more quickly.

 

That's one extreme, obviously. Certainly he can start in Daytona next year, and get promoted mid-year. Then he could begin 2007/age-25 in AA and promote mid-year to Iowa, or begin 2007/age-25 at Iowa. But I guess I'd like to see him producing well at Iowa by 2007/age 25 by mid-season at least, and preferably from the start of the season.

 

Fuld and Harvey seem like totally different cases. Fuld seems to have an advanced eye, remarkable contact guy (<10% K rate), and I have assumed (without really knowing) that he's a pretty polished defensive player. Given his contact profile, I'd guess that he's already able to handle breaking stuff pretty well, and doesn't have any major holes in his swing that are going to get exploited. Given his K/BB profile, I'm assuming he already has an eye for the strike zone. So I guess I don't see why AA would really be too much for him, or exactly what he'll need years of minor-league development to develop or learn.

 

Harvey, different story. He needs to get a clue about what the strike-zone is like. He needs to get an idea of how to recognize breaking pitches. He needs to learn how to keep his stroke consistent. He needs to learn how to put the bat on the ball. He needs to learn how to balance his swing, and how to get the most out of his power without missing the ball all the time. He'll probably never be able to learn all that stuff, but if he is going to learn all that stuff, at best it's going to take him a long, long time. Certainly giving him even a single step may be too much (see Dopirak), and given that he has so much trouble putting the bat on even low-A pitching, he's going to need to improve a lot or he'll get massacred by high-A and certainly AA pitching.

[ChiefsVoice]

I guess I just dont agree that he has to move quickly. He can easily start 2006 at Daytona and end at West Tenn. This was just his 1st year of pro ball. Same with Eric. There is a huge MYTH on this board and elsewhere that the MWL is the same as college ball and that is just a joke. Ask anyone who has played NCAA baseball and they will tell you that the competition at Low A is a lot better. Going 1 step at a time is fine and better than jumping someone to AA having them struggle, sending them back down to Daytona and killing their confidence and wasting a year.

 

Full-A is clearly way better than college. But that's not relevant, IMO, to the Fuld question.

 

If Fuld skips one level and jumps to AA at age 24, and that's too much for him and he struggles, I would conclude that he really isn't going to be a significant big-leaguer anyway. If he can't handle that jump at that age, after hitting .320+ for the past three months, he probably isn't good enough to be a significant major leaguer. AFter hitting .320+ for the past three months, I'd think he probably is well ready to advance to AA and perform well. And if he does so, that would confirm that he can be legitimatlely viewed as a genuine prospect.

 

Obviously he can go one step, but if it's 23 at low A, 24 at high A, 25 in AA, 26 in AAA, and 27 before he reaches the majors, that would be one of the oldest major league rookies I know of. I can't think of more than one or two position players who were rookies at age 27, and who ended up being quality starting players. Some fringe guys, yes, but not many asset starters. Most likely Fuld will never be good enough to be a quality starting player. But if he's going to be an asset regular starter down the line, then I assume he'd be able to move more quickly.

 

That's one extreme, obviously. Certainly he can start in Daytona next year, and get promoted mid-year. Then he could begin 2007/age-25 in AA and promote mid-year to Iowa, or begin 2007/age-25 at Iowa. But I guess I'd like to see him producing well at Iowa by 2007/age 25 by mid-season at least, and preferably from the start of the season.

 

Fuld and Harvey seem like totally different cases. Fuld seems to have an advanced eye, remarkable contact guy (<10% K rate), and I have assumed (without really knowing) that he's a pretty polished defensive player. Given his contact profile, I'd guess that he's already able to handle breaking stuff pretty well, and doesn't have any major holes in his swing that are going to get exploited. Given his K/BB profile, I'm assuming he already has an eye for the strike zone. So I guess I don't see why AA would really be too much for him, or exactly what he'll need years of minor-league development to develop or learn.

 

Harvey, different story. He needs to get a clue about what the strike-zone is like. He needs to get an idea of how to recognize breaking pitches. He needs to learn how to keep his stroke consistent. He needs to learn how to put the bat on the ball. He needs to learn how to balance his swing, and how to get the most out of his power without missing the ball all the time. He'll probably never be able to learn all that stuff, but if he is going to learn all that stuff, at best it's going to take him a long, long time. Certainly giving him even a single step may be too much (see Dopirak), and given that he has so much trouble putting the bat on even low-A pitching, he's going to need to improve a lot or he'll get massacred by high-A and certainly AA pitching.

 

On Fuld - If you send him to AA in 2006, who doesn't get to go there and has to repeat Daytona? Chris Walker? .284/6/57 60 SB this year... Kevin Collins? .265/18/52....or JJ Johnson? .261/10/50... I'm just not sure there is a slot for him to start at AA. Then again a lot can happen personnel wise before April. Glad I dont have to make those calls!

 

As for Harvey, there are a lot of major leaguers with no clue on the strike zone (Sosa, Adam Dunn, Sexson, Glaus, Jenkins, Patterson, etc). Ryan doesn't have nearly as many holes as you think he does. He is headed to instructs and between that and next spring they will help him a lot and I expect a big 2006 from Ryan at Daytona and West Tenn

[craig]

As for Harvey, there are a lot of major leaguers with no clue on the strike zone (Sosa, Adam Dunn, Sexson, Glaus, Jenkins, Patterson, etc). Ryan doesn't have nearly as many holes as you think he does. He is headed to instructs and between that and next spring they will help him a lot and I expect a big 2006 from Ryan at Daytona and West Tenn

 

Thanks for the encouraging view. You've seen him all the time, so if you don't think the holes are that bad, that's really encouraging. I hope your expectation of a big 2006 for him proves true. I admit I'd be shocked if he improved so abruptly that he could be ready for any significant AA time next year. Hope I'm wrong, and that his improvement is so exceptional that by next July he'll be dominating high-A and compellingly worthy of AA.

 

On Fuld - If you send him to AA in 2006, who doesn't get to go there and has to repeat Daytona? Chris Walker? .284/6/57 60 SB this year... Kevin Collins? .265/18/52....or JJ Johnson? .261/10/50... I'm just not sure there is a slot for him to start at AA. Then again a lot can happen personnel wise before April. Glad I dont have to make those calls!

 

Good question. I think the purpose of the minors is to develop major league players. So I would always prioritize what's best for the better prospects. If the Cubs think Fuld has a fair chance to be an asset big-leaguer, perhaps a starting leadoff CF who could play good defense, hit .290, and have a .350+ OBP, then I think what's good for Fuld should override what's good for Collins or JJ Johnson or Chris Walker.

 

So if it was me, I'd have no problem at all giving an AA spot to Fuld over Johnson or Collins. They can bench, or DH, or whatever.

 

If I'm mistaken in thinking that Fuld may actually be a solid major-leaguer, then the outcome might be different.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As for Harvey, there are a lot of major leaguers with no clue on the strike zone (Sosa, Adam Dunn, Sexson, Glaus, Jenkins, Patterson, etc). Ryan doesn't have nearly as many holes as you think he does. He is headed to instructs and between that and next spring they will help him a lot and I expect a big 2006 from Ryan at Daytona and West Tenn

 

All those players you mentioned sans Patterson(who may be on his way out of MLB, or at least as a starter) also have very good walk totals to go with their number of K's. Striking out over 100 times doesn't prohibit you from being a good player, but striking out over 100 times and walking less than 30 times definitely doesn't bode well for a player's performance, and shows a lack of plate discipline that needs to be rectified.

[Joe_Cub]

If he starts out at daytona they better watch him and give him the chance to move up if he's doing well and not wait until the whole season is almost over. He finished really strong plus he has a clue about hitting for sitations so hopefully he can move fast now or at least faster.