Mid-Season Top 10 or 20 prospects list

[burnt out cubbie fan]

We are past the half point now in all of the full season leagues so what is your list? I am not quite sure yet but I am interested to see what everone else thinks.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On a related note, as someone mentioned in the Felix Pie thread, BA has their midseason top 25 prospects. Felix is the only Cub there, coming in at #17. They also had a chat, but no one asked a question about the Cubs (there were two questions from Chicago, both about Cards prospects :x).

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/minors/050715midseason.html

[rawaction]

Very rough draft of my top 10.

 

1. Pie

2. Dopirak

3. Marshall

4. Harvey

5. Murton

6. Hill

7. Petrick

8. Pawelek

9. Cedeno

10 Take your pick (Pinto/Gallagher/Marmol/Moore)

 

BTW, Farm Report should be returning Monday or so.

[Outshined_One]

1) Pie - No-brainer. Plate discipline could use work, but the tools are now there.

2) Harvey - 5 tool player, made improvement with his Ks, and has a terrific ceiling.

3) Marshall - Lefty with supreme control and pretty darn good stuff. Doing well in AA.

4) Dopirak - Everything's still there for him to be a top power hitter...but he'll need a better second half.

5) Hill - ML-ready at this point; will make great trade bait or a pretty good #5 next season if need be.

6) Murton - Needs regular playing time and will be stuck in LF. Hitting and baserunning are quite nice.

7) Pawelek - Tantalizing performance in Mesa shows hope for the future. Just hope he's mechanically sound.

8) Cedeno - Like Murton, needs playing time more than anything. Good D and good offensive upside.

9) Moore - Repeating Daytona, but performing pretty darn well. Will need to show it's not a fluke.

10) Petrick - Injuries hurt, but stuff and makeup are promising.

 

Just missing: Mark Reed (good hitter at a tough position, needs to improve defense and get experience), Sean Gallagher (unless he can grow taller, his upside is limited), Renyel Pinto (AAA performance is worrying, but rebounded in AA and has very good stuff), and Carlos Marmol (high ceiling, but AA has been a challenge).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mine (I guess I like Moore a whole lot more than raw or Outshined):

 

1. Felix Pie

2. Sean Marshall

3. Brian Dopirak

4. Scott Moore

5. Ryan Harvey

6. Matt Murton

7. Rich Hill

8. Ronny Cedeño

9. Carlos Marmol

10. Billy Petrick

11. Sean Gallagher

12. Renyel Pinto

13. Ricky Nolasco

14. Eric Patterson

15. Brandon Sing

 

I don't think I can rank Pawelek yet.

 

BTW, Farm Report should be returning Monday or so.

 

YAY! :cheers:

[Outshined_One]

Mine (I guess I like Moore a whole lot more than raw or Outshined)

 

The fact that he's repeating the FSL is what's holding me back from ranking him in my Top 5. Also, apparently he's had his share of injury problems during his time with the Tigers.

 

I'd love to think he can keep up his performance in AA and stay healthy. However, I'm still a bit wary of him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Mine (I guess I like Moore a whole lot more than raw or Outshined)

 

The fact that he's repeating the FSL is what's holding me back from ranking him in my Top 5. Also, apparently he's had his share of injury problems during his time with the Tigers.

 

I'd love to think he can keep up his performance in AA and stay healthy. However, I'm still a bit wary of him.

 

The reason I still rate him high is because while he's repeating the FSL, he's the same age as Dope and came from the same draft. I also like his BB/K numbers.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I am very disappointed with Dope, and Harvey's slow progress is disturbing as well. If he was the real deal, he should be further along than this. My list--

 

1. Pie

2. Hill

3. Marshall

4. Gallagher

5. Pawelek

6. Murton

7. E. Patterson

8. Pinto

9. Harvey

10. Cedeno

 

I give a shout out to Nolasco, Theriot, Moore, Van Buren, Greenberg and Pignatiello, who comprise my "biggest surprises" of the year so far.

 

Biggest disappointments?? In order--Dopirak, Guzman, Pinto, Lewis, Harvey, Leicester.

[abuck1220]

1. pie

2. hill

3. dope

4. marshall

5. murton

6. harvey

7. patterson

8. cedeno

9. pawelek

10. gallagher

 

pinto, moore, petrick, nolasco, jvb would probably follow...

 

never really been on the marmol bandwagon...

[sporrer17]

1. Felix Pie-the tools are amazing

2. Ryan Harvey-tools also are amazing, still needs work. Great arm.

3. Mark Pawelek-high upside, but also is considered very polished.

4. Matt Murton- high BA, high OBP, okay SLG, good speed. I like him.

5. Scott Moore- high upside, high draft pick, finally putting it together.

6. Rich Hill- great curve, okay FB, improving control. Too old, too many HR

7. Eric Patterson- fast, okay d, good top of the order hitter, will take walks.

8. Sean Gallagher- sub 2 ERA, sub 1 WHIP, almost a K/inning...only 19.

9. Sean Marshall- doing very well at AA. If healthy, he could be a lot higher.

10. Ricky Nolasco- lot of K's, undefeated, sub 3 ERA, WHIP=1.20.

 

Looking at my list, I probably have Harvey, Moore, Pawelek, and Nolasco a little high, however, I think they are all having very good seasons, but Harvey could stand to improve his #s a little. I was going a little bit more off of upside than pure production, however I did take both into consideration.

[UMFan83]

Stupid question, but no love for Montanez yet? I know he has tons to prove yet, and one good season vs. several bad ones does not make a top prospect, but he's finally moving back up in the system again and is having a great year. Shouldn't he be at least an honorable mention especially considering how fast most prospects rise or fall on people's lists (Richard Lewis comes to mind) over the course of one season.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

These are some ugly numbers outside of his season at Arizona. Add to the fact that he was several years older than the league average and that this is his 5th year at high or low A ball and his numbers seem much, much less impressive. Oh yeah, he also moved to left field from shortstop, which decreases his value plenty.

[sporrer17]

Stupid question, but no love for Montanez yet? I know he has tons to prove yet, and one good season vs. several bad ones does not make a top prospect, but he's finally moving back up in the system again and is having a great year. Shouldn't he be at least an honorable mention especially considering how fast most prospects rise or fall on people's lists (Richard Lewis comes to mind) over the course of one season.

 

He'd be making significant progress if he were to make our top 20 list. Just a year and a half ago, he was an afterthough when it came to top prospects lists...heck, he wouldn't have made a top 50 list a couple years ago. If he can continue to show improvement in his game, then he may work his way back into being a legit prospect. Until then, however, don't get too excited about him.

 

However, with the tools he has (not the 3rd overall pick for nothing) and maybe some new-found confidence, he could become the hitter we all thought we had at SS, only playing LF...which will diminish his value somewhat. Another thing that hurts his prospect status is his declining SB totals. He at one point was at least at 20 SB guy...now he's got like 5 this year...

[burnt out cubbie fan]

I think I am going to go with this...

 

1. Felix Pie

2. Sean Marshall

3. Ryan Harvey

4. Scott Moore

5. Brian Dopirak

6. Rich Hill

7. Mark Pawelek

8. Ronny Cedeño

9. Matt Murton

10. Carlos Marmol

11. Renyel Pinto

12. Billy Petrick

13. Sean Gallagher

14. Eric Patterson

15. Brandon Sing

[Holy Cow]

I think all of you have Patterson too low. He has shown plate discipline along with his hitting ability. He has a much better OPB (.408) than Pie (.349), making him IMO the best combination of strike zone knowlege and tools in the system. Despite all the strike outs, he sports a .55 BB/K. He's got a good shot of reaching his cieling. His age is the only concern, so I would like to see him moved up to Daytona this year.

 

Here's how I rank them

 

1. Pie

2. Marshall - His K/BB in AA is 4.8!

3. Hill - He is a MLB #3 starter right now, and I expect less HRs soon.

4. Murton - He can run too? We could only have landed him by mistake.

5. Patterson

6. Harvey - Despite his numbers, this guy really excites me.

7. Dopirak - If this continues, he's really gonna drop, but he has time.

8. Moore - He could shoot up quickly if he keeps this up.

9. Pawelek - Pitching great, and his make-up looks plus-plus.

10. Gallager - His age makes his numbers substantially more impressive.

 

Cusp - Pinto, Cedeno and Petrick.

 

edit: And O_O, your sig is great, thats an awesome episode.

[VVMattVV]

I think all of you have Patterson too low. He has shown plate discipline along with his hitting ability. He has a much better OPB (.408) than Pie (.349), making him IMO the best combination of strike zone knowlege and tools in the system. Despite all the strike outs, he sports a .55 BB/K. He's got a good shot of reaching his cieling. His age is the only concern, so I would like to see him moved up to Daytona this year.

 

He played in a big college conference for years, he is advanced for Peoria. He isn't a young kid out of high school, its been said the league he's at now isn't any better than it was at the college level. His patience and his numbers so far have been nice, but its interesting to see how he does at the next level.

[Holy Cow]

I think all of you have Patterson too low. He has shown plate discipline along with his hitting ability. He has a much better OPB (.408) than Pie (.349), making him IMO the best combination of strike zone knowlege and tools in the system. Despite all the strike outs, he sports a .55 BB/K. He's got a good shot of reaching his cieling. His age is the only concern, so I would like to see him moved up to Daytona this year.

 

He played in a big college conference for years, he is advanced for Peoria. He isn't a young kid out of high school, its been said the league he's at now isn't any better than it was at the college level. His patience and his numbers so far have been nice, but its interesting to see how he does at the next level.

 

Right, so if his OBP was just proped up by his BA, I would have him much lower. But he seems to have a genuine command of the strike zone, along with a healthy walk rate. Like I said, he should be sent up this season, and how he does there will be very important. But guys with his speed and patience is rare, so I think his floor is pretty high, even if he ceases to dominate against those his same age.

[CubsWin]

I sort of break even on tools vs. performance. I favor ceiling a bit more than current level of performance, and I tend to value the age of a prospect and the rarity of talent at his position a bit more than others, it seems, so my list goes:

 

1. Pie

2. Harvey

3. Hill

4. Cedeno

5. Moore

6. Dopirak

7. Marshall

8. Murton

9. Pinto

10. Pawelek

11. Gallagher

12. Reed

13. Nolasco

14. Patterson

15. Petrick

[rawaction]

Dopirak's error total is sickening right now. He's on pace for about 20 errors....AT FIRST BASE! If he finishes with 20 Es and an OPS under .700 like he is well under now, then he will most certainly have to drop way down.

 

But I think you will see a resurgence from Dope as the 2nd half continues (assuming every game from here on out isn't rained out). His K rate has improved, and there's no way he's a .130 ish ISOP type of hitter. I'd say you can expect about .270-.280, 12-15 HRs, .220 ISOP the rest of the way from him.

[badger1679666666]

Why wasn't Nolasco on a lot of your lists. He seems to have good numbers. What's his knock?

[mhuber92211]

Why wasn't Nolasco on a lot of your lists. He seems to have good numbers. What's his knock?

 

He is posting these numbers while repeating AA.

 

BTW Raw, your point makes sense on Dope. I thought I read somewhere on here that he just pulled into the league lead in HR, or was that Harvey. I tend to lump them both together this season casue they have both had similar disappointing seasons. While they haven't been the "OMG" Type season we were expecting, they have been somewhat progressive and hopefully a "build" year that will produce better numbers next season.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why wasn't Nolasco on a lot of your lists. He seems to have good numbers. What's his knock?

 

He is posting these numbers while repeating AA.

 

He's still just 22 though, and put up fine numbers at AA last year(3.70 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.67 K/9). He supposedly has unspectacular stuff, but I don't see how he could be considered any lower than Marmol on the list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Why wasn't Nolasco on a lot of your lists. He seems to have good numbers. What's his knock?

 

His pitches aren't as good as others prospects and his ceiling is lower than the pitchers I had ahead of him and he's repeating AA. The reason I have him higher than other posters is because I feel he deserves it after he's improved his changeup this season.

 

CPatt, the reason I have Marmol higher than Nolasco is because he has a higher ceiling and better stuff. It's not his fault he's being rushed.

 

Mhuber, it's Harvey (who's hitting kind of well lately) who has tied the MWL-lead in HRs at 15.

[burnt out cubbie fan]

Mhuber, it's Harvey (who's hitting kind of well lately)

Kind of?!?! What does a person have to do to hit well??

[Diffusion]

Erm you guys do know Angel Guzman is still alive, don't you?

 

Injured or not, there is no way you can make a top prospect list for the Cubs and not have him somewhere near the top of it. The kid's still just 23 and his stuff, control, makeup, polish are off the charts compared to some of the prospects you're ranking ahead of him. Some of you are seriously saying you'd take the likes of Nolasco over Guzman? If Guzman gets healthy, he has a bright major league future. Nolasco doesn't even have a major league future. I'll take the chance on Guzman then.

 

Is it even that big a gamble? Guzman's been injured twice. He tore his labrum in 2003, and he's had this nagging injury this year, which the Cubs diagnosed as having something to do with a childhood injury. You're going to write off Guzman on the basis of two injuries? Fair enough, but I'll write off Dopirak and Harvey on the basis of their all or nothing approach probably making them less likely to reach the big leagues than Guzman even. And where will that get me? Not far. This system isn't anywhere near deep enough that you can ignore potential impact pitchers just because they miss a few months with injury or they strike out a bit too much. We don't do can't miss prospects.