Would Abreu be worth Zambrano?

[katway]

 

And no offense, but I'm so sick of people saying any interleague game is huge or a "must win". The Boston and Yank series were just for bragging rights in cities that won't likely see each other for 3-4 more years.

 

I wasn't implying that every interleague game is a must win. I was simply refering to some decent consistent playofff caliber teams, they just happened to be interleague. Also, as I recall, he couldn't hold a 6-2 lead last October and the Cubs were eliminated from the wildcard. In 2003, he didn't last 6 in his first game against Atlanta and couldn't hold a 4 run lead in the first game against the Marlins as he proceeded to serve up three homeruns to four hitters. I think of those as big games where he came up a little short.

 

I'm not saying that he is not a good pitcher, clearly he is an excellent pitcher... My biggest concern has always been whether or not he is a gamer in pressure situations. In what I have perceived as big games, he simply hasn't performed like an ace.

[ZZ Thorn]

Abreu's skeptical look at whoever was singing "God Bless America" was hilarious. He produces a ton AND has good taste in music: get him on the Cubs Jim.

[erik316wttn]

As much as I love Abreu as a player, and I respect the hell out of his abilities, I wouldn't trade Z for him, simply because of the age.

 

Z is 24. He has 10 years (give or take 2 or 3 either way) before his skills start to decline. He can be a very, very good pitcher for those 10 years, hopefully all of them in a Cub uniform.

 

Abreu is 31. His decline is possibly coming in 4 years, maybe less. I don't know if 4 years of Abreu is worth potentially 10 or more of Zambrano.

[jjgman21]

just so we're clear, Z's games started/ERA against

 

Atl - 5/4.55 (one of only two NL teams his career ERA is above 3.71)

Hou - 10/3.26

StL - 9/3.18

SF - 2/3.71

Fla - 5/2.03

LA - 3/1.80

Sox - 7/3.09

 

 

one interesting thing looking at his career splits, the Metropolitans have never had the pleasure of facing Mr. Z as a starter. only one relief inning in his entire career.

Edited July 13, 2005 by jjgman21

[jjgman21]

AJ Burnett

 

 

ok. the guys name seems to appear in every other thread these days, and I have bitten my tongue up until now.

 

has anyone taken a gander at the Cubs DL the past couple of years? how about read anything written about the Cubs between the months of March and July the past two years? fill in the blanks for me..."the Cubs could make a run if their _________ staff stays __________."

 

why would anyone on earth even want to take that chance, especially considering he will be this offseasons highest paid free agent?

[Warpticon]

AJ Burnett

 

 

ok. the guys name seems to appear in every other thread these days, and I have bitten my tongue up until now.

 

has anyone taken a gander at the Cubs DL the past couple of years? how about read anything written about the Cubs between the months of March and July the past two years? fill in the blanks for me..."the Cubs could make a run if their _________ staff stays __________."

 

why would anyone on earth even want to take that chance, especially considering he will be this offseasons highest paid free agent?

 

Because he's White Me!

[NorthsideAvenger]

I am of the school of thought that your don't trade YOUNG, and QAULITY pitching for hitting. Would Houston trade Roy Oswalt to the Yanks for Alex Rodriguez (if money doesn't play a part)? Would the White Sox trade Mark Buehrle for Migeul Cabrera? The answer is NO. Quality pitching is so hard to find, and quality YOUNG pitching is even harder to find, and when you do find it, you keep it. If Abreu was between 25-29, then yeah, I would trade Z for him, but at 31 yrs old, then no, I wouldn't unless the Cubs got Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd back in the deal.

 

Now if Philly wants to do a KW for Abreu, then I am on board. :lol:

[rawaction]

I am of the school of thought that your don't trade YOUNG, and QAULITY pitching for hitting. Would Houston trade Roy Oswalt to the Yanks for Alex Rodriguez (if money doesn't play a part)? Would the White Sox trade Mark Buehrle for Migeul Cabrera? The answer is NO. Quality pitching is so hard to find, and quality YOUNG pitching is even harder to find, and when you do find it, you keep it. If Abreu was between 25-29, then yeah, I would trade Z for him, but at 31 yrs old, then no, I wouldn't unless the Cubs got Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd back in the deal.

 

Now if Philly wants to do a KW for Abreu, then I am on board. :lol:

 

I would do Zambrano for ARod and probably Cabrera too.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I am of the school of thought that your don't trade YOUNG, and QAULITY pitching for hitting. Would Houston trade Roy Oswalt to the Yanks for Alex Rodriguez (if money doesn't play a part)? Would the White Sox trade Mark Buehrle for Migeul Cabrera? The answer is NO. Quality pitching is so hard to find, and quality YOUNG pitching is even harder to find, and when you do find it, you keep it. If Abreu was between 25-29, then yeah, I would trade Z for him, but at 31 yrs old, then no, I wouldn't unless the Cubs got Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd back in the deal.

 

Now if Philly wants to do a KW for Abreu, then I am on board. :lol:

 

I would do Zambrano for ARod and probably Cabrera too.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to trade Zambrano for Arod. Considering our hole at SS, that would be great.

 

Not like that deal would ever happen...

[imb]

I am of the school of thought that your don't trade YOUNG, and QAULITY pitching for hitting. Would Houston trade Roy Oswalt to the Yanks for Alex Rodriguez (if money doesn't play a part)? Would the White Sox trade Mark Buehrle for Migeul Cabrera? The answer is NO. Quality pitching is so hard to find, and quality YOUNG pitching is even harder to find, and when you do find it, you keep it. If Abreu was between 25-29, then yeah, I would trade Z for him, but at 31 yrs old, then no, I wouldn't unless the Cubs got Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd back in the deal.

 

Now if Philly wants to do a KW for Abreu, then I am on board. :lol:

 

Both of those teams would do both of those deals.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Players I would trade Zambrano for, straight up:

 

Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Johan Santana, Jake Peavy.

 

That's about it. I don't want players 30 or older, which is why no one like A-Rod, Vlade or the aforementioned Abreu is on my list.

 

There are also a couple of package deals I would consider: Jason Bay AND Mike Gonzalez. Chase Utley AND Ryan Madsen. Adam Dunn AND Felipe Lopez. I won't hold my breath on the last one there though...

[WindyCity]

AJ Burnett

 

 

ok. the guys name seems to appear in every other thread these days, and I have bitten my tongue up until now.

 

has anyone taken a gander at the Cubs DL the past couple of years? how about read anything written about the Cubs between the months of March and July the past two years? fill in the blanks for me..."the Cubs could make a run if their _________ staff stays __________."

 

why would anyone on earth even want to take that chance, especially considering he will be this offseasons highest paid free agent?

 

So using that argument, you'd want the Cubs get rid of Aramis Ramirez because his groin injuries makes him too much of a health risk?

 

AJ Burnett is an amazing talent and every team that can afford him (that includes the Cubs) should be interested in adding him to their payroll.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

AJ Burnett

 

 

ok. the guys name seems to appear in every other thread these days, and I have bitten my tongue up until now.

 

has anyone taken a gander at the Cubs DL the past couple of years? how about read anything written about the Cubs between the months of March and July the past two years? fill in the blanks for me..."the Cubs could make a run if their _________ staff stays __________."

 

why would anyone on earth even want to take that chance, especially considering he will be this offseasons highest paid free agent?

 

So using that argument, you'd want the Cubs get rid of Aramis Ramirez because his groin injuries makes him too much of a health risk?

 

AJ Burnett is an amazing talent and every team that can afford him (that includes the Cubs) should be interested in adding him to their payroll.

 

Ramirez's groin injuries are a far cry from Burnett's elbow troubles.

 

2002-2005

Home: 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Road: 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

[Holy Cow]

Bobby Abreu is the player people thought Carlos Beltran was during the offseason.

 

I sure never thought Beltran was as good as Abreu. However, I would take Dunn over Bobby. Whoever said that Dunn will never be Abreu forgets that Abreu will never hit 50 HRs.

[CarolinaCubFan]

I am of the school of thought that your don't trade YOUNG, and QAULITY pitching for hitting. Would Houston trade Roy Oswalt to the Yanks for Alex Rodriguez (if money doesn't play a part)? Would the White Sox trade Mark Buehrle for Migeul Cabrera? The answer is NO. Quality pitching is so hard to find, and quality YOUNG pitching is even harder to find, and when you do find it, you keep it. If Abreu was between 25-29, then yeah, I would trade Z for him, but at 31 yrs old, then no, I wouldn't unless the Cubs got Cole Hamels or Gavin Floyd back in the deal.

 

Now if Philly wants to do a KW for Abreu, then I am on board. :lol:

 

I would do Zambrano for ARod and probably Cabrera too.

 

I wouldn't hesitate to trade Zambrano for Arod. Considering our hole at SS, that would be great.

 

Not like that deal would ever happen...

 

I don't understand why people have the impression that Arod is untouchable. The Yanks aren't winning and George is, well George. I still don't think Arod has been excepted in NY, and Mr. Jeter is still God. George has money, but is stuck without trade bait.

 

I'd offer Zambrano for Arod and cash. The loss of Big Z would hurt, it would hurt any team, but I think we would gain more. Arod for $7-10M a season? An infield of Arod, Lee, and Aram gives us great flexability in the OF. We need a leadoff hitter and it will be much easier to fill that role in the OF. Pie, Patterson, and ?? If that isn't the right way to go, Hendry has money, trade bait, and budding prospects who are waiting for a shot in the show.

 

Looking at what we have available, and the weak upcoming FA crop ahead, building around:

 

1.

2.

3. 1B Lee

4. SS Arod

5. 3B Aram

6.

7.

8. C Barrett

 

would be a good fit for this organziation IMHO. Arod may not have as many years ahead of him as Z, but to be honest, 5 prime years of Arod at SS helps this team more than what Z will help, being that our pitching is our strength - again, IMHO. There are plenty of flaws in this idea, but I hope Hendry is open minded enough to look at all options.

[jjgman21]

AJ Burnett

 

 

ok. the guys name seems to appear in every other thread these days, and I have bitten my tongue up until now.

 

has anyone taken a gander at the Cubs DL the past couple of years? how about read anything written about the Cubs between the months of March and July the past two years? fill in the blanks for me..."the Cubs could make a run if their _________ staff stays __________."

 

why would anyone on earth even want to take that chance, especially considering he will be this offseasons highest paid free agent?

 

So using that argument, you'd want the Cubs get rid of Aramis Ramirez because his groin injuries makes him too much of a health risk?

 

AJ Burnett is an amazing talent and every team that can afford him (that includes the Cubs) should be interested in adding him to their payroll.

 

no, the argument isn't the same at all, and your comparison isn't even close. let me fill in the blanks for you. ..."the Cubs could make a run if their PITCHING staff stays HEALTHY." Aramis Ramirez has played at least 7/8 of the past 4 season. are the injury histories really anywhere near comparable? my point is about acquiring a pitcher with a serious injury history, not about keeping a hitter with the occassional aches and pains.

 

this is a team built on starting pitching. problem is, that starting pitching can't stay healthy. so what you are suggesting is adding a guy with a bloated contract who has a worse history of staying healthy than any of the guys we currently have.

 

Kerry Wood is an amazing talent, younger, cheaper (will be next year), AND more durable. should every team be interested in adding him, or do you think there are a few that are a little leery of his injury history? AJ Burnett has made 116 starts in his 6 year career. Kerry Wood has made 172 in the 7.5 years since breaking into the big leagues. but it seems every year we all get p.o.'d that Wood can't stay healthy. what makes you think Burnett would be any different?

 

signing Burnett to the contract he will get only to have him get injured, as has been his history, will screw this organization for the duration of his contract, and will use necessary dollars to improve the offensive problems this team has.

[Ocu-Master]

Bobby Abreu is the player people thought Carlos Beltran was during the offseason.

 

Agreed. he is the most underrated player out there. Baseball Prospectus made a hall of fame case awhile back and in my mind its fairly convincing. Bobby Abreu has been one of the top ten most valuable players over the last seven years. And nobody knew his name until the derby.

 

for those of you with a subscription here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3832

 

Not a bad peak, eh? Over a hundred walks, oodles of extra-base power, considerable base-stealing prowess, and the always aesthetically-pleasing .300/.400/.500 rate line.

 

That's not Abreu's peak, though. That his 162-game average for his entire career.

 

That's not a good player. That's a player who is above the league average in essentially every meaningful offensive statistic. The only statistic in which Abreu is not significantly above-average is strikeouts, a finding of dubious significance. The line above is a statistical rendering of the scout's perfect Five-Tool Ballplayer.

 

Take a look at his numbers yourselves and don't let the fact that he's not a household name mar your judgement. Abreu is one of the elite players in the league.

 

If he continues to put up numbers like he has (or can be expected over the arc of his career) for several more years, he's HoF quality in my mind, no doubt

 

(edit: here's the WARP1 numbers to back up BP's top 10 claim -- for the non-stat heads, WARP is Wins Above Replacement Player which measures the overall cumulative value of a player's contributions, both offensive and defensive)

 

  Player            WARP1 (1998-2004)

1. Barry Bonds        87.2
2. Alex Rodriguez     70.6
3. Pedro Martinez     68.6
4. Randy Johnson      63.6
5. Todd Helton        62.5
6. Jeff Kent          60.6
7. Scott Rolen        59.8
8. Sammy Sosa         59.7
9. Bobby Abreu        58.4
10. Curt Schilling    58.2

[CoolHandLuke]

sometimes I think about the Devil Rays trading him for the amazing Kevin Stocker and I laugh.

[katway]

sometimes I think about the Devil Rays trading him for the amazing Kevin Stocker and I laugh.

 

Sometimes I think of how Houston left him available in the expansion draft and I laugh. Imagine if Houston had him in the lineup all these years...

[jtownie]

sometimes I think about the Devil Rays trading him for the amazing Kevin Stocker and I laugh.

 

Sometimes I think of how Houston left him available in the expansion draft and I laugh. Imagine if Houston had him in the lineup all these years...

 

Imagine that they didn't let J Santana go in the Rule 5 draft either. They may have won a WS last year.

[Ocu-Master]

sometimes I think about the Devil Rays trading him for the amazing Kevin Stocker and I laugh.

 

Sometimes I think of how Houston left him available in the expansion draft and I laugh. Imagine if Houston had him in the lineup all these years...

 

Imagine that they didn't let J Santana go in the Rule 5 draft either. They may have won a WS last year.

 

Imagine that in 5 years they might be saying the same about Sisco ;)