A look at the second half. Can the Cubs contend for WC?

[CubFanPhilly]

At this point last season the Cubs were 47-40 and went 42-33 the rest of the way to end up 89-73. In 2003, they were 44-43 and finished 44-31 to go 88-74. Where will the team end up this year?

 

First a look at BP's adjusted standings:

 

Division Leaders

 

Team             W    L     RS   RA  W3   L3      D1    D2    D3
Cardinals        56  32    447  340 49.1 38.8     1.2   3.8   6.9
Nationals        52  36    357  361 42.4 45.6     8.6   9.7   9.6
Padres           48  41    406  384 44.5 44.5     1.4   1.1   3.5

 

A quick look here exposes the imposter among the division leaders. The Nats adjusted W-L is three games under .500. Based on this and strength of remaining schedule, I'm going to hand the Braves the East (for purposes of this discussion).

 

The Wildcard looks like this: (again BP's adjusted standings):

 

Team             W    L     RS   RA  W3   L3      D1    D2    D3
Mets             44  44    387  381 46.2 41.7    -0.5  -1.9  -2.2
Phillies         45  44    410  417 45.2 43.8     1.4   0.5  -0.2
Cubs             43  44    394  394 45.0 42.0    -0.3  -2.2  -2.0
Marlins          44  42    383  368 44.4 41.6    -0.4  -1.3  -0.4
Astros           44  43    365  362 43.1 43.9     0.3  -0.6   0.9
Nationals        52  36    357  361 42.4 45.6     8.6   9.7   9.6

 

Clearly if stats ruled the real world the Cubs would be in the thick of it. Why aren't they? Is it bad managing? Bad luck? Why isn't the team wining at the expected pace? Sound familiar? I'd argue that the answers are the same as last year - all of the above - exacerbated by poor fundamentals.

 

But a closer look at the real standings reveals the Cubs have a shot. Once again the Cubs have one of the weakest second half schedules in baseball:

 

PLAYOFF RACE 07/11/05
                          Games Remaining - (Contenders)     | TOTAL V.  TOTAL V.                     
Div. Leaders   W-L  GB-WC  ATL CHI FLA HOU  NY PHL SD STL WAS | CONTEND   NON-CONTEND
St. Louis     56-32         3  14   7   8   3   0  3   X   3  |    41        33
Washington    52-36        11   0  10   7   9  10  6   3   X  |    56        18
San Diego     48-41         3   0   3   3   6   6  X   3   6  |    30        43
                                                             |
Wildcard Race                                                 |
Atlanta       50-39   -     X   3   6   0  10  11  3   3  11  |    47        26
Florida       44-42  4.5    6   3   X   3   6  10  3   7  10  |    48        28
Houston       44-43  5.0    0  10   3   X   4   6  3   8   7  |    41        34
Philadelphia  45-44  5.0   11   3  10   6   9   X  6   0  10  |    46        27
New York      44-44  5.5   10   3   6   4   X   9  6   3   9  |    50        24
Chicago       43-44  6.0    3   X   3  10   3   3  0  14   0  |    36        42  
______________________________________________________________|
Totals                     47  36  48  41  50  55 30  41  56 |                 

 

How will the Cubs play against the non-contenders? They need a minimum of 12 games over in these games (27-15). The Cubs have 24 games remaining with the Cards and the Astros (14-10 would be the minimum acceptable IMO). If they go 5-4 in games against contenders they end up 89-73 I think the Nats, Mets, Phillies and Marlins could all end up around .500 - opening the door for a 89-win season to steal the wildcard. I'd prefer 92-94 wins, but I'll take what we can get (as long as any trade to improve doesn't mortgage the next couple of seasons).

 

The Cubs' season is on life support, but the patient's not dead yet.

 

CFP

 

(edit: corrected an error in the schedule table.)

Edited July 12, 2005 by CubFanPhilly

[Soul]

Nice work.

 

I'd feel better about it if I had confidence the Cubs will play well against weaker teams. What is the Cubs record against sub .500 teams this year?

 

It seems we don't dominate the weak sisters like we should. That might not be true statistically though. It just seems that way to me.

[neely crenshaw]

please explain how we can win 51 games in our next 75 to get to 94 wins?

our best, and maybe only bet is that the teams in the east beat each other up with one of them pulling away for the division allowing 86ish wins to sneak into the wildcard.

that would put us at 43-32 for the second half, that might be a little stretch for this team without some moves

Edited July 12, 2005 by neely crenshaw

[Fred Hornkohl]

 1  Cincinnati           3    2    0.600
2  Houston              3    3    0.500
3  Milwaukee            6    7    0.462
4  Pittsburgh           5    2    0.714
5  St. Louis            1    1    0.500
6  Atlanta              0    4    0.000
7  Florida              4    2    0.667
8  Washington           1    5    0.167
9  New York             2    1    0.667
10  Philadelphia         1    2    0.333
11  Arizona              1    2    0.333
12  Colorado             3    1    0.750
13  Los Angeles          3    0    1.000
14  San Diego            4    3    0.571
15  San Francisco        0    0    0.000
16  Chicago (AL)         3    3    0.500
17  Boston               2    1    0.667
18  NY Yanks             0    3    0.000
19  Toronto              1    2    0.333

                       43   44    0.494

[CubFanPhilly]

please explain how we can win 51 games in our next 75 to get to 94 wins?

our best, and maybe only bet is that the teams in the east beat each other up with one of them pulling away for the division allowing 86ish wins to sneak into the wildcard.

that would put us at 43-32 for the second half, that might be a little stretch for this team without some moves

 

Well I put us at 44-31 for 89 wins and a chance to sneak into the wildcard. And, yes, I think that's a stretch.

 

94 wins would take a minor miracle:

 

-Nomar back (and playing well) in 3-4 weeks.

-Hairston and Walker batting 1-2 the rest of the season.

-Wood, Prior and Zambrano pitching like they did the 2nd half of '03.

-Hendry adding both a bullpen arm and an OF by the deadline.

 

94 wins is 51-24 and a .680 winning percentage. About the best the Cubs could hope for IMO. 89 wins is a .586 WP the rest of the way (possible given the talent on the team and a weaker schedule).

 

CFP

[CubFanPhilly]

I'd feel better about it if I had confidence the Cubs will play well against weaker teams.

 

I think that's the key.

 

What is the Cubs record against sub .500 teams this year?

 

After a quick tabulation of Fred's table, I come up with 21-14.

[Soul]

I'd feel better about it if I had confidence the Cubs will play well against weaker teams.

 

I think that's the key.

 

What is the Cubs record against sub .500 teams this year?

 

After a quick tabulation of Fred's table, I come up with 21-14.

 

It's a little better than I thought, but not much.

[Larry Horse]

No they can't. Atlanta will be getting some players back in the second half and history tells me that they will not fold.

[TrueBlueCubFan]

No they can't. Atlanta will be getting some players back in the second half and history tells me that they will not fold.

Then your assuming Washington will win that division or win the WC & I don't see this team keeping it up in the 2nd half.

[Peoriaman]

no.

[cubweiser03]

Those 14 games against st. loius stick out like a sore thumb.

[LoneStarCubFan]

Atlanta's going to win the East and Washington and Florida are going to beat each other up. The Cubs can do this if they win the majority of the games they are supposed to and play St. Louis like they did in '03. They also need to continue to play well against the West. They've got a bunch of games left with everybody but San Diego, which is a bit of a break.

 

The team to worry about is Houston once again. If they pick up another bat and the Cubs don't, it's over.

[hawkeyecub]

Good work and to answer your question, yes.

 

We don't need to worry about the Braves, they're going to win the East. The Nationals are going to fold, they simply can't keep up this rate of winning one-run games. The talent level on that team just isn't high enough for them to win the East.

I also don't see the Astros hanging in there. They've been playing WAY over their heads lately and that only got them to where we are. I've seen people say "well everyone said they were done last year too." Well last year they had Beltran, Kent and Bagwell. Unless they get a big boost to their offense, they won't hang.

 

I believe Florida is our main competitor for the Wild Card, then it's the Nationals and Phillies (more worried about them than the Mets or Astros.)

 

In order to win the Wild Card we need to keep our pitching staff healthy, acquire an arm in the bullpen, possibly an upgrade in the outfield, and have Nomar make a decent contribution.

[katway]

We seem to be really underestimating Washington. They are a decent ball club that relies on consistent good starting pitching and an excellent bullpen. I really wouldn't count them out so easily. It would take a huge slide for them to become a .500 team.

 

In any event, for the Cubs to take the wildcard, they will have to take control of the games they are supposed to win and split the tough games. They have to stop losing to pitchers with 5+ ERAs.

 

I think they have an OFer in Murton. Even though he is a call up from the minors, the kid has proven throughout his career to be a smart player that makes adjustments and is nearly always the first player everyone ask for in trade proposals for an OFer. The B-Sox fans still mourn the loss of Murton in the Nomar deal. So, I think he is the answer to left field if Dusty gives him a shot.

 

Clearly, if Nomar returns to form in August, it will be a major boost for the offense.

 

The Cubs can take the wild card, but it wont be easy with so many games against the Cards and hoping that good teams like Atlanta and Washington some how fade.

Edited July 12, 2005 by katway

[Cubzfan64]

In short, my answer to the question is no, unless:

 

a. We have a good number of players overachieve in the second half and have no more injuries

 

or

 

b. We make some positive changes to the team makeup by the trade deadline that address our deficiencies.

[CubinNY]

In short, my answer to the question is no, unless:

 

a. We have a good number of players overachieve in the second half and have no more injuries

 

or

 

b. We make some positive changes to the team makeup by the trade deadline that address our deficiencies.

 

I would like to add C and place the qualifier must in front of it>

 

must c. Fire the manager. He has shown that he is unable to manage this ball club. We will never know how many games his line up card making and double switching have cost the Cubs. Not to mention not having Dempster close games from the beginning of the year.

 

I don't see this team making it to the playoffs with Dusty at the helm.

[indianbadger]

..but we seem to be forgetting Mr. Baker's shenanigans here. What is to say he will not put Neifi back in the top of the lineups again? What is to say he will not start Macias every now and then again? What is to say he will not play Murton more often than Hollandsworthless? What is to say he will not use Remlinger as a LOOGY again?

 

Personally I would use Jerome out of the bullpen and let Rusch become a starter again. To get a reliable LOOGY Hendry needs to get Hill up and option Mitre or Jerome back to AAA. I would rather keep Mitre as he is a sinkerballer. Now assuming Nomar will be back and provide a .330/.400 level player and WoodnPrior stay healthy, the team my be able to overcome Dusty's mismanaging. But if Baker goes back to coddling Neifi and Hollandsworthless, look out below.

[SouthSideRyan]

Of course.

[Wheelimus]

Yup, we can. The Nationals are playing above their heads. I think it's silly to dismiss them from the wildcard, but they aren't going to win the division. So really we're right in the thick of things for the wild card, only six games back now and I expect that gap to the top to close pretty quickly.

 

To compete, though, we need the following key items to happen.

 

1) Nomar Garciaparra playing for The Cubs by August 1st. If he's badly off target, then you aquire a shortstop the day before, or you have (immediately after the AS Break) moved Ronny Cedeno into the starters role and see what he has done.

 

2) Matt Murton needs to come on huge, and Dusty needs to play him.

 

3) Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano need to play like the top of the rotation starters they're supposed to be. And they need to do it for the entire 2nd half. If one of those 3 are starting, and the offense gives them anything, they better have the lead when they leave.

 

4) Ryan Dempster needs to continue to be a bonafide big league closer.

 

5) Leadoff - Jerry Hairston, 2nd in order - Todd Walker. That needs to not change AT ALL, unless one of them just TANKS. We wouldn't be in the mess we're in had there been reliable guys at 1 & 2 in the first half...and Derrek Lee would have run away with the RBI title.

 

6) NO MORE BLEEPING INJURIES

[Catman61]

Yup, we can. The Nationals are playing above their heads. I think it's silly to dismiss them from the wildcard, but they aren't going to win the division. So really we're right in the thick of things for the wild card, only six games back now and I expect that gap to the top to close pretty quickly.

If the Nationals aren't going to win the division, thus being relegated to the WC then you have to consider the gap as 8.5 (the games the Cubs are behind WAS) and not the 6 games they are behind the Braves.

 

And a 38-36 record gets the Nationals to 90 wins which has been pretty much the minimum for the WC.

[genghiskhan]

Yes. But Wood and Prior will have to both 1) be healthy for the entire second half and 2) actually pitch well. And Wood, at least, has not had an extended stretch of effective starts for some time.

 

And, as Catman points out, the Nationals will have to play well below .500.

[YearofDaCubs]

Chances are that we are done for.

[goonys evil twin]

Chances are that we are done for.

 

I agree, but there is still that glimmer of hope. And that glimmer is brighter than in several years past, because the talent on this team is so much greater than it's ever been in my lifetime. Of course, they will have to catch several breaks, including at least one team that is currently playing well to fall on its face.

[cubweiser03]

Yup, we can. The Nationals are playing above their heads. I think it's silly to dismiss them from the wildcard, but they aren't going to win the division. So really we're right in the thick of things for the wild card, only six games back now and I expect that gap to the top to close pretty quickly.

If the Nationals aren't going to win the division, thus being relegated to the WC then you have to consider the gap as 8.5 (the games the Cubs are behind WAS) and not the 6 games they are behind the Braves.

 

And a 38-36 record gets the Nationals to 90 wins which has been pretty much the minimum for the WC.

 

This is a good point but the nationals are lucky they arent 38-36 right now, and headed for worse times come july/aug/sep. That bullpen is going to implode. They have 4 guys in the pen over 30 IP and 3 over 40 IP already, the Cubs have only guy over 30IP out of the pen is Weurtz.

Its hard to image the Cubs gaining 8 games in only 80 games but the Nationals are going to have a series of games where they lose a lot and as shown early in this thread they got a real tough schedule coming there way.

[XZero771679666304]

Chances are that we are done for.

 

I agree, but there is still that glimmer of hope. And that glimmer is brighter than in several years past, because the talent on this team is so much greater than it's ever been in my lifetime. Of course, they will have to catch several breaks, including at least one team that is currently playing well to fall on its face.

 

I think there is that glimmer of hope, and that is the pitching staff. I am not saying this will or even is likely to happen, but with our starting staff, we have on of the only teams who could realistically reel off 10 straight or 12 of 13, etc. That is of course provided that the offense continues the approach we saw them adopt in the Florida series, or we may see another eight game losing streak, which they are equally capable of.