Cubs Offseason Mega Thread

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Rogers is the only one worth considering with the QO attached IMO

Well at least we have a leg-up over everyone in signing Seiya since he has the QO.

[Nolo]

Outfield situation.

Let's say we do lose Happ and Suzuki (looking likely although I'm holding out hope on Suzuki). That is losing two 2026 gold glove finalists, ouch. I don't feel great about sticking these infield-first guys like Shaw/Ramirez in OF. I still think one of them should be packaged in a trade for a pitcher and the other utilized as infield utility.

To fill one (or more) of the OF corner spots what about a Taylor/Alcantara/Conforto platoon situation, with whoever is hitting best going to DH when they're not playing in OF.

Conforto is sneaky good, Taylor is versatile, and maybe Alcantara can continue to mash like he's been doing in the Dominican Republic winter league, just maybe.

I'd say we could sign Arozarena and utilize him in LF and DH and go with the platoon I mentioned above in RF. Arozarena is an animated player and could be a spark plug and be a 20/20 or 25/25 guy with mediocre defense, but I'm not really sure he will be cheaper than Suzuki, and at that point why not just re-sign Suzuki or Happ? Plus Arozarena does have that QO so it's something to consider.

But I'd feel good about having Taylor as an option for all three defensive OF spots nonetheless, considering what we may be losing in OF defense.

But will signing Conforto + Taylor be that much cheaper than just re-signing Happ? Let's say Happ gets $17-20M AAV. Conforto maybe $5-8M AAV and Taylor $3-6M AAV? 

• Happ --- 17-20M AAV
• Taylor/Conforto --- 8-14M AAV

I could be way off on the numbers, but there's some savings there, especially on the lower end. That could free up some room for a solid bullpen arm somewhere.

Edited 7 hours ago by Nolo

[mul21]

17 hours ago, Bertz said:

Rogers is the only one worth considering with the QO attached IMO

Agreed.  I retract my wish for Bauers with a QO now attached.  I would bet there's a good chance he takes that because I'm not sure he gets close to that AAV on a multi year deal.

[Outshined_One]

I love Happ, and there's a world out there where the Cubs re-sign him to a 1-2 year deal with a team option that lets them splurge on the rotation, but my worry is his strikeouts and struggles against LHP this season were not one-offs.

If it turns out he had a nagging injury that caused him issues while batting on the left side, then I'm okay with re-signing him, but I really don't want to sign a guy who might be relegated to a platoon role by midseason next year.

 

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I love Happ, and there's a world out there where the Cubs re-sign him to a 1-2 year deal with a team option that lets them splurge on the rotation, but my worry is his strikeouts and struggles against LHP this season were not one-offs.

If it turns out he had a nagging injury that caused him issues while batting on the left side, then I'm okay with re-signing him, but I really don't want to sign a guy who might be relegated to a platoon role by midseason next year.

 

Yeah, there isn't much of a reason for me to really resign Happ unless he's coming with a platoon pricetag and a short-term on the years. If Happ needed to rehab his value and reattack a FA market, then a 1+1 (buyout) deal with incentives for PA's, but an Opening Day role of "platoon most of the time" (the incentives would give him a raise if he showed he could once again be trusted against LHP while mitigating his overall price)...I'd be in.

The issue is that this market sucks and Happ is arguably one of the better options; he probably won't need to rehab his market because someone will overpay him. Keith Law suggested 4/$100m. We can scoff at that number, but in this market it's not insane. FanGraphs had him at 3/$60m on the median. And with that, I'm out. And I say that as someone who has ardently defended him around here. If you get him for the Ben Clemens 2/$30m I'd be much closer to "in" as that's a price you can really handle. But I think he'll out perform Ben's prediction on the market. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Yeah, there isn't much of a reason for me to really resign Happ unless he's coming with a platoon pricetag and a short-term on the years. If Happ needed to rehab his value and reattack a FA market, then a 1+1 (buyout) deal with incentives for PA's, but an Opening Day role of "platoon most of the time" (the incentives would give him a raise if he showed he could once again be trusted against LHP while mitigating his overall price)...I'd be in.

The issue is that this market sucks and Happ is arguably one of the better options; he probably won't need to rehab his market because someone will overpay him. Keith Law suggested 4/$100m. We can scoff at that number, but in this market it's not insane. FanGraphs had him at 3/$60m on the median. And with that, I'm out. And I say that as someone who has ardently defended him around here. If you get him for the Ben Clemens 2/$30m I'd be much closer to "in" as that's a price you can really handle. But I think he'll out perform Ben's prediction on the market. 

Law’s numbers are crazy. If the Cubs or Happ really thought he could get that the Cubs would offer him a QO and he would decline. Honestly don’t think he will get 3/$60 either. And I doubt the Cubs think he would as well. Again, if he could, wouldn’t the security of 3/$60M be better than accepting the QO? Really wish Happ had a little better year. Even his typical year. Then the Cubs could have given him a QO and either got a pick or him another year. Either would have been fine. But off of last year it is too hard to justify him at $22M so they have to let him go without a QO. I can see him getting maybe 3/$54M. Not more than that. 

[Bertz]

As someone pretty vehemently against throwing a lot of resources at the position player group, some lesser bats I like, first two guys warranting a starting job and then two guys warranting the Conforto role

Trent Grisham - He got BABIP'd pretty hard last year, and probably deserved a wRC+ closer to 115.  His WAR is also weighed down by having clearly aged out of CF.  I don't know if him playing so much is him being stubborn or the Yankees being desperate, but he'd probably be a plus defender in LF.  Cherry on top is he turned 30 two days ago, so he's 2-3 years younger than most of his peers on the market.  And if you don't trust me Steamer has him as the 4th best OF in the class basically tied with Bauers

Taylor Ward - At this time last year Seiya, Arozarena, and Taylor Ward were all essentially the same player.  Ward had a weird half season with Baltimore, trading all his power for a big improvement in K/BB, and then a disastrous half season in Seattle.  He's obviously not on the same level as Seiya and Randy anymore, but I'd guess he's still a starting caliber bat who I'd be happy to give a 1 year pillow deal

George Springer - I'm generally looking at LHH bats to compliment the kids we have, though Springer has turned into a reverse splits guy in his twilight.  He had a crappy first half this past season, but he broke his toe in April whoch I'm guessing deserves a chunk of the blame.  Steamer projects him to a 111 wRC+, and I'd guess he'd be slightly better than Conforto in the Conforto role

Jesus Sanchez - I believe he's a minor league free agent?  He has a 112 wRC+ against RHP the last three years, and gets to it with a little more thunder in the bat than some of the alternatives.  He's also 29 years old, so again a good bit younger than the alternatives.  He's a total putz in the OF so ideally he'd mostly DH, but I think hes a good cheap strong side platoon option there and you can dream on a bit more.  Also if I'm right about him being a MiLB FA I think we could stash him at Iowa, so add him on top of another DH rather than instead of

[Bertz]

Expected as his projected arb number is less than that $3.3M

 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Law’s numbers are crazy. If the Cubs or Happ really thought he could get that the Cubs would offer him a QO and he would decline. Honestly don’t think he will get 3/$60 either. And I doubt the Cubs think he would as well. Again, if he could, wouldn’t the security of 3/$60M be better than accepting the QO? Really wish Happ had a little better year. Even his typical year. Then the Cubs could have given him a QO and either got a pick or him another year. Either would have been fine. But off of last year it is too hard to justify him at $22M so they have to let him go without a QO. I can see him getting maybe 3/$54M. Not more than that. 

This market sucks for hitters. I have no idea what the Cubs think he can get, but regardless, there is a very real chance it's simply "we don't want to risk a guy who loves it hear taking it". That $23m is likely earmarked elsewhere and the chances he accepted just didn't outweigh the pick. 

Ultimately, I do think you're discounting how horsefeathers this market is. I think there's a good chance a team like the Cincinnati Reds offer him 3/$60m (or round about there).  They love targeting local guys (did the same with Schwarber last year) and they need hitters. I think Happ will come very close to the median. And to be fair, the difference between $54m and $60m is $2m AAV for three years. For our purposes they might as well be the same thing. But let someone else do it.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

This market sucks for hitters. I have no idea what the Cubs think he can get, but regardless, there is a very real chance it's simply "we don't want to risk a guy who loves it hear taking it". That $23m is likely earmarked elsewhere and the chances he accepted just didn't outweigh the pick. 

Ultimately, I do think you're discounting how horsefeathers this market is. I think there's a good chance a team like the Cincinnati Reds offer him 3/$60m (or round about there). They love targeting local guys (did the same with Schwarber last year) and they need hitters. I think Happ will come very close to the median. But let someone else do it.

I agree at $20M annual or even the $18M I said, let someone else take him.

 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

As someone pretty vehemently against throwing a lot of resources at the position player group, some lesser bats I like, first two guys warranting a starting job and then two guys warranting the Conforto role

Trent Grisham - He got BABIP'd pretty hard last year, and probably deserved a wRC+ closer to 115.  His WAR is also weighed down by having clearly aged out of CF.  I don't know if him playing so much is him being stubborn or the Yankees being desperate, but he'd probably be a plus defender in LF.  Cherry on top is he turned 30 two days ago, so he's 2-3 years younger than most of his peers on the market.  And if you don't trust me Steamer has him as the 4th best OF in the class basically tied with Bauers

Taylor Ward - At this time last year Seiya, Arozarena, and Taylor Ward were all essentially the same player.  Ward had a weird half season with Baltimore, trading all his power for a big improvement in K/BB, and then a disastrous half season in Seattle.  He's obviously not on the same level as Seiya and Randy anymore, but I'd guess he's still a starting caliber bat who I'd be happy to give a 1 year pillow deal

George Springer - I'm generally looking at LHH bats to compliment the kids we have, though Springer has turned into a reverse splits guy in his twilight.  He had a crappy first half this past season, but he broke his toe in April whoch I'm guessing deserves a chunk of the blame.  Steamer projects him to a 111 wRC+, and I'd guess he'd be slightly better than Conforto in the Conforto role

Jesus Sanchez - I believe he's a minor league free agent?  He has a 112 wRC+ against RHP the last three years, and gets to it with a little more thunder in the bat than some of the alternatives.  He's also 29 years old, so again a good bit younger than the alternatives.  He's a total putz in the OF so ideally he'd mostly DH, but I think hes a good cheap strong side platoon option there and you can dream on a bit more.  Also if I'm right about him being a MiLB FA I think we could stash him at Iowa, so add him on top of another DH rather than instead of

I’m think they should have around $15M to $20M earmarked for bats. Right now they have 9 guys I am pretty confident will be in the team. If you use the system to fill the last bench spot (Murray or Triantos) that gives you 10. So you need 3 guys, including a catcher. If they ride with Ayers they have $15M -$20M for 2 bats amoong the guys you mentioned, plus a few others. I would be fine with something like Conforto and Ward. Then spend the other $70M-$75M on pitching. 
Also, something that hasn’t been mentioned, but would Amaya and 1 or 2 prospects in the 8-14 range of the Cubs system bring back a young controlled starter? Guardians might be a good match. A feel a lot of teams can use a catcher. If they were able to get a pitcher cheap, they can sign Kelly and bring Ayers up. And probably spend a little more on a bat or add a pen arm. 

[Jason Ross]

Not *directly* MLB news but I do think this is important: the Dodgers' owners are selling their stake in the Cadillac F1 Team. This is odd timing; the team is literally brand new (year 1) and Walter is in some hot water. Couple this with a recent report of "Dodgers in on Skubal on short term Tucker contract" and I'm thinking this very well may be a market they're not *super* in on.

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I think there's a good chance a team like the Cincinnati Reds offer him 3/$60m (or round about there). 

Over/under on home runs in that contract would be like 110. 

[Nolo]

Pitching recipe for this off season is sign two and trade for one.

Sign any two from this pool: Skubal, King, Peralta, Rogers, Griffin, Holmes, Gausman, Gray, Peterson

Trade for one of: Detmers (LAA), Bradley (MIN), Gilbert (SEA), Kirby (SEA)

Trade options: Shaw, Ramirez, Alcantara, Amaya, Triantos, Murray Jr, certain prospects.

Depending on how you slice and dice it, it’s within projected budget with room to spare on bats.

Add in Steele and Cabrera and we are partying. Depth starters consisting of Assad, Garrett, Wicks.

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Over/under on home runs in that contract would be like 110. 

There will be a real portion of the Cubs' fan base that will completely forget their hatred for Happ over the last five years and make fun of the Cubs for not signing him.

Honestly, that might be my own personal hell.

[Jason Ross]

Cubs Head of Player Development Jason Kanzler hired as Mariners manager. 

[Nolo]

9 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Cubs Head of Player Development Jason Kanzler hired as Mariners manager. 

Foot in the negotiation door for Gilbert or Kirby.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Nolo said:

Foot in the negotiation door for Gilbert or Kirby.

Or Hancock.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

20 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Cubs Head of Player Development Jason Kanzler hired as Mariners manager. 

Deep cut for the Mariners, wow

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Deep cut for the Mariners, wow

Bit of a deep cut. In Kanzler's defense, he's been apart of the Astros' coaching staff before. The Cubs poached him off their staff for Player Dev (his background was in MiLB hitting) and now he's going back to the dugout as a full-manager.

[Bertz]

It's not a disaster or anything but it is definitely not great to lose Kanzler and Banner back to back considering the overlap.

That said a winter where you have to take a 3 month siesta where you cannot not talk to anyone on the 40 man is probably as good of a time as any to have to deal with this.