Reds (Lowder) vs Cubs (Peterson): 8/28/26, 1:20pm

[Brian707]

I doubt they miss the playoffs but could see them having to go on the road in the WC round.  Its been a roller coaster ride. They will still have a stretch where they look like the best team in baseball. 

[Geographyhater8888]

They’re 25th in xERA, 29th in fWAR and only 14th in ERA, in a relatively neutral run scoring environment. Either the defense is the sole explanation for this, or they’re leveling off closer to their expected runs allowed with less luck on hard contact allowed, and losing Swanson is a massive blow.

Edited Saturday at 01:17 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They’re 25th in xERA, 29th in fWAR and only 14th in ERA, in a relatively neutral run scoring environment. Either the defense is the sole explanation for this, or they’re leveling off closer to their expected runs allowed with less luck on hard contact allowed, and losing Swanson is a massive blow.

No doubt losing Swanson hurts. And also no doubt they are not playing as well without him. But they are still very much in a solid playoff spot. Yes, not as sure as I was a week ago, but still ok. Would love to win the first WC spot and have home field advantage, but if not, it doesn’t really matter to me if they come 5th or 6th. It’s either Phillies or Braves on the road. I might actually rather play the Braves. 🤷 They just need to get in. As Brian said, it has been a roller coaster of a season. But when they are good and if they get pitching from Gausman, Holmes and Boyd, they can beat anyone. 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

We’ll need April-May 8th and June 11th-August-12 Counsell to show up for these final 27 games. 

I’m not sure what this means. Are you saying Counsell has to manage better the last 27 games. Are those dates he made good managing decisions? I don’t think any of this is on Counsell. The Cubs just have to play better. Period. 

[Geographyhater8888]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not sure what this means. Are you saying Counsell has to manage better the last 27 games. Are those dates he made good managing decisions? I don’t think any of this is on Counsell. The Cubs just have to play better. Period. 

It means that blaming Counsell for bullpen mismanagement when he’s chosing between the least stinkiest turd is asinine.

Edited Saturday at 02:18 PM by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

48 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

No doubt losing Swanson hurts. And also no doubt they are not playing as well without him. But they are still very much in a solid playoff spot. Yes, not as sure as I was a week ago, but still ok. Would love to win the first WC spot and have home field advantage, but if not, it doesn’t really matter to me if they come 5th or 6th. It’s either Phillies or Braves on the road. I might actually rather play the Braves. 🤷 They just need to get in. As Brian said, it has been a roller coaster of a season. But when they are good and if they get pitching from Gausman, Holmes and Boyd, they can beat anyone. 

The offense and starting pitching are both clicking and they’re coming off of a 2-5 stretch. It could be a baseball is stupid type of thing, or this patchwork bullpen is going to end up being costly and this delayed reality is starting to kick in. 

[Rex Buckingham]

This stretch without Dansby has convinced me more than ever that I was wrong to value offensive WAR so much more than defensive. 

I bet his glove (and therefore Nico's at 2nd rather than SS) would have made the difference in at least 2 games.

[Soul]

I tend to think this patchwork of bullpen arms just isn’t good enough, rather than CC is mismanaging them.  
 

And this is it.  These are the guys who have to hold leads in the later innings, and have to keep a deficit manageable when our starters falter.

So I’m putting it like 90% lack of talent, and 10% CC.  Sure he could make a better move here and there, but overwhelmingly he’s trying to cook dinner with empty cupboards.

[PeanutPunch33]

There's too much pressure on this offense every single night to overcome the inconsistent starting pitching and crappy bullpen.  On days where Holmes and Gausman aren't pitching, there isn't a lot of confidence in the arms that are available.  It sucks that Brown looks like he's done for the year - that was the ace in the hole that I was hoping would change everything.  Whether he came back in the rotation or bullpen it would have made a big difference.  

Still think they can make a deep playoff run but I'm not sure they can overcome some of these gaps.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

This stretch without Dansby has convinced me more than ever that I was wrong to value offensive WAR so much more than defensive. 

I bet his glove (and therefore Nico's at 2nd rather than SS) would have made the difference in at least 2 games.

For most teams and in most situations, you should value offensive WAR more than defensive, but the Cubs and their lousy pitching is the exception.