Could Kaima Taira Be the Next NPB Star in Chicago?

The Chicago Cubs have invested heavily in Japanese talent in recent years. It started in February 2018, when the team signed right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish to a six-year deal, making him the first high-prized Japanese star the club had signed since Kosuke Fukudome the decade before. That was after Darvish had already been in the majors for years, so it wasn't the same as when they signed Fukudome before the 2008 season, but it was a marker laid down.

Despite trading Darvish after the "biblical" losses of the COVID-19-shortened season, the Cubs kept getting value from him through the 2021-22 offseason. That winter, Darvish helped convince Seiya Suzuki to make Chicago his next destination. In January 2024, the Cubs signed left-handed starter Shota Imanaga as their next Japanese import. Amid those high-profile signings, the Cubs pursued Shohei Ohtani, Roki Sasaki and Tatsuya Imai to varying degrees. Recently, the organization promoted Kenta Namoto to scouting director. It's clear they remain interested in being a destination for players from Japan and are always looking for new talent abroad. 

This offseason will probably see the departure of the two current Japanese-born players from the team's roster. As reported by The Athletic, the Cubs are "unlikely to win a bidding war for Seiya Suzuki", and with their need for high-upside arms, Shota Imanaga's home run issues are also likely to reduce the team's interest in retaining him. However, with NPB star pitcher Kaira Taima likely to be posted this offseason, the Cubs may not have to wait long to replenish their stores of Japanese talent. But who exactly is Kaira Taima? And why might the Cubs be interested?

Kaima Taira - The Positives

Kaima Taira finished the 2026 season with the best ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball, at 1.36. If that number feels shockingly low; it is. In fact, it's the fourth lowest ERA ever posted in NPB, behind only two other players whom you may recognize: Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Masahiro Tanaka, both of whom went on to significant MLB success. He also finished fifth in pitching WAR, according to NPB Basement, the Japanese equivalent of Statcast and FanGraphs. 

The first thing that jumps off the page about Taira is his fastball, which looks to be a very good offering, at least based on velocity and location. Sitting roughly 95 MPH on average (with the ability to peak near 100), he pounds the top of the zone with the pitch. Often, Japanese pitchers throw at the knees more than their American counterparts. Imanaga had to shift from throwing his fastball lower to the upper third when he came Stateside. Not Taira: he locates his fastball at the very top of the zone, and locates it well. He generated a ton of whiff on the pitch—much more whiff than we should expect in America, but it was a plus offering for the righty in Japan, even going by MLB standards. 

Even better is that Taira has a deep arsenal of pitches to pull from. He can attack right-handed hitters with a sweeper-sinker combination off the fastball and left-handed hitters with a cutter-splitter-changeup mix. You can see, above, how he's already varied in his pitch mix. The sweeper, for example, is used far less against lefties, while the changeup disappears against righties. So not only does he have good fastball placement, he is a ready-made thinker on the mound, when it comes to attacking hitters. 

Taira uses his mix to great effect, striking out nearly a quarter of hitters faced last year. More important than the swing-and-miss in his game, however, is just how many ground balls he generates. In 2026, he managed a ground-ball rate of 49.3%. Keeping the ball on the ground ensures balls don't fly over the fence. They can also turn luck back your way: When someone finds a hole or works a walk (something that tends to be a bit of a bugaboo), having the routine double play in your back pocket is a great way to erase a base runner before they have a chance to score. 

You don't have to take my word for it, either. The righty is very open with how he views the game. He's a big fan of data and using science to get the most out of his game. It's not surprising, then, to see that he's already ahead of the curve in terms of where he's placing his fastball and how he attacks hitters. Not only is a data-driven pitcher, he is very open with his game, posting YouTube shorts and videos where he discusses his philosophy, offers lessons and explanations on his specific pitches and talks about life in general He's clearly both a student and a teacher of the game, and while this may not be a "hard" skill, soft skills like that can often translate on and off the mound for someone in an entirely new land.

It's likely this understanding of the game (and the desire to keep bettering himself) that has led him to get strong reviews for his mechanics. We'll talk more about his frame (and the negatives of it) later, but what he may not have in pure physical tools, he can make up for by being a hard worker who finds success on the margins. One way that he does that is by managing 6'8" of extension as he barrels down the mound at opposing hitters. While this wouldn't be elite extension in the majors, Twins' starting pitcher Joe Ryan also has 6'8" extension and finished in the 89th percentile last year. This will help his fastball play up, beyond pure velocity. Again, if you aren't gifted the physical tools, sometimes you have to find a way around thatm and Taima has found some ways around his limitations.

Tread Athletics (the independent player-development facility now-Cubs pitching guru Tyler Zombro helped to found) highlighted his mechanics to show how, despite being a relative short king on the mound, Taira is able to use his legs to get into his fastball. This is another way that he can take the hand he was dealt and use it to his advantage. He's able to use creative mechanics to really get into his physicality and get results. It shouldn't be surprising that a pitcher who has a deep love for understanding the game has managed to get the most out of himself on the mound. 

Kaima Taira - The Negatives

As fun as Taima can be, there are a few elephants in the room that need to be factored in before any team signs the enigmatic righty from the Seibu Lions. The first and obvious one is that Taira doesn't look like most starting pitchers. In fact, he'd be essentially a unicorn in Major League Baseball in terms of his body composition. As of 2025, the average height of MLB pitchers was roughly 6'2". Pitchers such as Jacob Misiorowski stand 6'7" or taller. Taira is (generously) listed at 5'8", which would make him one of the shortest hurlers in the league. He also comes in at roughly 220 pounds. This isn't to body shame anyone, but to point out that a pitcher of Taima's size is quite unusual and how that body holds up to the pressures of a full MLB starting load is effectively anyone's guess.

With any undersized pitcher, there are real durability questions. Earlier, I mentioned that Taima finished with the best ERA in NPB and the fifth-most WAR; but the reason he wasn't first in both is because he didn't accrue as many innings as other starters. In 2026, 17 NPB starting pitchers threw more innings. Moreover, Taira doesn't have a lot of history as a starter; he's spent most of his time as a reliever with the Lions. He got a chance to start back in 2024, but dealt with a few injuries, forcing him back to the bullpen in 2025. How well he can handle pitching more often in the States is certainly a question mark any team who signs him will have to be okay with.

Beyond durability, Taira is not perfect on the mound. One thing that stands out: he's prone to walking hitters. While a 7.9% walk rate is not absurd for MLB, it was high for NPB, as just four pitchers had more walks than the righty. For comparison's sake, Tomoyuki Sugano had a 2.6% walk rate, Imanaga a 4.0%, Yamamoto had a 4.4%, Imai had a 7% rate and Sasaki walked 7.1% of hitters in their final seasons in Japan. Taira walked more than almost any other high-profile Japanese pitcher who's planned a move to the States. This is why it's a good thing he keeps the ball on the ground so often. 

There are also some questions on his stuff—notably, the shape of his fastball. There just isn't much ride to it. While NPB Basement doesn't provide exact pitch data, it's estimated that the fastball sits at a pretty poor IVB. One of the things that made Imanaga's fastball so special is that he was able to achieve good carry from a low release point. Taira's fastball does not have the same IVB and will effectively "sink" more. The good news, is as Tread Athletics points out, a shorter pitcher and a flat release (both of which are definitely true of Taira) can fight poor IVB, but the pitch on its own doesn't look to have outlier or special shape. 

Are Kaima Taira and the Chicago Cubs A Good Fit?

The Chicago Cubs have had more than their share of pitching problems. Between injuries to Cade Horton and Justin Steele, under-performance from Edward Cabrera and a lack of ready-to-go pitching depth in the minor leagues, the organization struggled last season on the mound. Despite finishing with the third-worst fWAR of any pitching staff, the Cubs managed to make the playoffs with 89 wins, but they can't rely on out-hitting their opponents every season. On top of being a poor staff on paper, they are also about to lose Matthew Boyd, Imanaga, Kevin Gausman, David Peterson and Clay Holmes to free agency, less anyone from that group whom they re-sign. The positional need is obvious, but positional need is just one part of this. 

Stylistically, Taira seems a great fit. He's a pitcher who gets a good number of strikeouts, comes with a ready-made arsenal and would be able to keep the ball on the ground. The Cubs boast one of the best defenses in baseball, and one could argue they have an all-world infield defense, with Gold Glove nominees at second, short and third. It also shouldn't be lost on anyone that Tread Athletics has posted positively about Taira multiple times, either. While I doubt Tyler Zombro is their social media manager, there appears to be overlap between how the Cubs' pitching czar views slinging the baseball and how Taira goes about his game. It shouldn't be surprising, then, to hear that the Cubs are already one of the teams who have been connected to him.

From Taira's standpoint, the Chicago Cubs are also a very attractive destination. The NPB star has pitched for the Seibu Lions for the entirety of his career and the Lions have one of the best defenses in Japan. Shortstop Soske Genda is a nine-time winner of Japan's Golden Glove. Genda's double-play partner is Natsuo Takizawa, who is a highlight reel on his own. Taira leaned into his stellar defense, and having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner as replacements wouldn't be lost on the hurler. That doesn't even begin to add in some of the soft stuff the organization seemingly does for their newest members. There's a reason Darvish spoke highly about his time in Chicago; that should make them an even more attractive option than what they offer on the field.

Lastly, there's the Scott Boras part of the equation, as the notable super agent is Taira's rep. Jed Hoyer and Boras clearly have a working relationship. Boras represents players such as Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman, both of whom have signed with the Cubs over the last few seasons. This should at least give the two sides a good foundation and understanding of each other before a single number is exchanged.

When he is eventually posted, there will be no shortage of suitors for the right-handed pitcher. He will be (much, much, much) cheaper than Tarik Skubal, and with the questions on body size, durability and control, he's more akin in total value to where Imanaga stood two years ago. This will bring many teams to the table initially.

But the Cubs can offer a unique situation for the pitcher with their defense, and Taira offers a unique set of skills and some upside to go along with it. It's too early to make any definitive predictions, but it would be surprising if the two weren't in contact this winter, as the Cubs look to shore up a bottom-of-the-barrel pitching staff and Taira looks to find a home in Major League Baseball. It really may be a match made in heaven.

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