Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 6-25-26

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa vs. Buffalo, 6:38 pm
Knoxville at Birmingham, 7:00 pm
South Bend vs. Quad Cities, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach at Salem, 5:35 pm
ACL Cubs at ACL Brewers, 8:00 pm
DSL Cubs Blue at DSL Orioles Orange, 10:00 am
DSL Cubs Red vs. DSL Arizona Black, 10:00 am

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Corbin Martin (12 IP, 7.50 ERA, 7.65 FIP, 16 K, 12 BB)
Knoxville: RHP Dawson Netz (35.1 IP, 2.80 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 48 K, 19 BB)
South Bend: RHP Mason McGwire (11 IP, 2.45 ERA, 2.67 FIP, 13 K, 4 BB)
Myrtle Beach: maybe RHP Kaleb Wing? (15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 3.30 FIP, 22 K, 11 BB)

[gflore34]

For those in the know - within the next few seasons is the Cubs farm system going to pop with pitching?  Given the lack of pitching at the big league and AAA level I know this seems like a silly question.  Thought, I've read at the lower levels the Cubs have quite a few possibly quality pitching prospects.

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

For those in the know - within the next few seasons is the Cubs farm system going to pop with pitching?  Given the lack of pitching at the big league and AAA level I know this seems like a silly question.  Thought, I've read at the lower levels the Cubs have quite a few possibly quality pitching prospects.

I think a lot depends on the upcoming draft.  As things currently stand, if you assume linear progression without injury setbacks (big, big, big assumption, I know), next season should be an improvement over this season since guys like Wiggins, Sanders, and Kipp could be candidates for the opening day roster while lower level pitchers like Wing, McGwire, Caple, and Coppola could all make arguments for being among the 10-15 best prospects in the system.  That's going along with a handful of guys who've been hanging around the system for awhile and could make the leap in McCullough, Mule, and Florentino.

Where things get iffy is we haven't seen many guys pop in the ACL/DSL.  Part of that is lack of information, but usually around June/July we start to hear about guys generating buzz and excitement in those leagues, and we haven't really seen that on the pitching side of things.  Don't get me wrong, we're talking about teenagers, but it's notable.

Overall, pitching is improving compared to past seasons, and we should see better results in the coming years with Zombro having more of a say in scouting and development.  However, I'd feel a lot better about the future if the Cubs focused on pitching at both college and HS levels in the upcoming draft.

[gflore34]

20 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I think a lot depends on the upcoming draft.  As things currently stand, if you assume linear progression without injury setbacks (big, big, big assumption, I know), next season should be an improvement over this season since guys like Wiggins, Sanders, and Kipp could be candidates for the opening day roster while lower level pitchers like Wing, McGwire, Caple, and Coppola could all make arguments for being among the 10-15 best prospects in the system.  That's going along with a handful of guys who've been hanging around the system for awhile and could make the leap in McCullough, Mule, and Florentino.

Where things get iffy is we haven't seen many guys pop in the ACL/DSL.  Part of that is lack of information, but usually around June/July we start to hear about guys generating buzz and excitement in those leagues, and we haven't really seen that on the pitching side of things.  Don't get me wrong, we're talking about teenagers, but it's notable.

Overall, pitching is improving compared to past seasons, and we should see better results in the coming years with Zombro having more of a say in scouting and development.  However, I'd feel a lot better about the future if the Cubs focused on pitching at both college and HS levels in the upcoming draft.

Thanks.  Read the piece about the Cubs plethora of injuries the other day and the author painted a really dire picture of the Cubs as a whole.  Now, I agree a whole horsefeathers ton of things have gone wrong, including Hoyer' drafting of guys - Horton, Conrad, Wiggins - who, have thus far, shown their greatest ability is the ability to remain injured.  But, it's probably not as bad as it seems right now.

Edited Thursday at 05:42 PM by gflore34

[Outshined_One]

Just now, gflore34 said:

Thanks.  Read the piece about the Cubs plethora of injuries the other and the author painted a really dire picture of the Cubs as a whole.  Now, I agree a whole horsefeathers ton of things have gone wrong, including Hoyer' drafting of guys - Horton, Conrad, Wiggins - who, have thus far, shown their greatest ability is the ability to remain injured.  But, it's probably not as bad as it seems right now.

Conrad and Wiggins both seem to be on their way back from their respective issues.  It's not to say those problems are forever behind them, but they've made progress, and we should *hopefully* see Conrad in games down in the ACL within the next week or so.

[Bertz]

There has been way more good news than bad on the pitching front this year on the farm.  The problem is that the situation was absolutely dire at the end of last year, so a stack of good news has the pitching on the farm still only up to to "solidly below average."

Like OO said the draft is going to impact a lot.  If they do a 2022 style draft I think we'd be back in the black.  The team has four top 100 picks, add in money that can be shifted around and you can probably give out five or six million dollar bonuses?  Do 1-2 hitters and the rest pitchers, plus a few more Coppola/Jerzembeck types at slot in the later rounds, and suddenly you're a bit flush with pitching.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Comparative to the rest of the league it'll so probably be bottom 5-10 but there are a lot more high- upside guys than in years past IMO. They need to have another strong draft and try to stay ahead of the attrition. They seem to be really far behind in IFA scouting and that needs to change yesterday. There's really no excuse to be lacking in that dept. 

[gflore34]

Thanks all for the replies, offering some positive news.  Regarding the draft, should the Cubs go 2 pitchers for every position player or is that an overreaction?

[Outshined_One]

21 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

 They seem to be really far behind in IFA scouting and that needs to change yesterday. There's really no excuse to be lacking in that dept. 

That one's been a head-scratcher for me.  There are three IFAs who are either in the majors or are majors-adjacent (Mo, Pedro, Rojas), but those guys were 2021/2022 signings, and the classes after them have been decidedly not good.  I remember in the last few years there were stories about the Cubs restructuring their scouting departments, and wonder if that has anything to do with it, but it does seem like their 2023 class (notables: Derniche Valdez, Ludwing Espinoza, Angel Cepeda, Jostin Florentino, Alexey Lumpuy, Eriandys Ramon) and 2024 class (notables: Fernando Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Yander Maria, Edgardo de Leon) haven't panned out yet, although there's still time.

It's not to say they screwed things up from jump because guys like Cruz, Valdez, and Espinoza were highly regarded when they signed, but it's hard to tell if these results were because of flawed scouting, flawed coaching, flawed player development, bad luck, or something else.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

That one's been a head-scratcher for me.  There are three IFAs who are either in the majors or are majors-adjacent (Mo, Pedro, Rojas), but those guys were 2021/2022 signings, and the classes after them have been decidedly not good.  I remember in the last few years there were stories about the Cubs restructuring their scouting departments, and wonder if that has anything to do with it, but it does seem like their 2023 class (notables: Derniche Valdez, Ludwing Espinoza, Angel Cepeda, Jostin Florentino, Alexey Lumpuy, Eriandys Ramon) and 2024 class (notables: Fernando Cruz, Robin Ortiz, Yander Maria, Edgardo de Leon) haven't panned out yet, although there's still time.

It's not to say they screwed things up from jump because guys like Cruz, Valdez, and Espinoza were highly regarded when they signed, but it's hard to tell if these results were because of flawed scouting, flawed coaching, flawed player development, bad luck, or something else.

Obviously those 3 were signed 5 years ago but getting 3 top 100 prospects out of IFA in 5 years seems pretty good, actually. Cabada and Geraldo are good ones from the last 2 classes.

I think they need to stay away from the $2.5M+ signings since they just aren't getting good success there post-Eloy (Jonathan Sierra, Ronnier Quintero, Cristian Hernández, Derniche Valdez and Fernando Cruz) and those kids are taking up too much of their pool.

[JBears79]

49 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Obviously those 3 were signed 5 years ago but getting 3 top 100 prospects out of IFA in 5 years seems pretty good, actually. Cabada and Geraldo are good ones from the last 2 classes.

I think they need to stay away from the $2.5M+ signings since they just aren't getting good success there post-Eloy (Jonathan Sierra, Ronnier Quintero, Cristian Hernández, Derniche Valdez and Fernando Cruz) and those kids are taking up too much of their pool.

Still too early on Cruz imo. He's showing some development in the ACL right now. Still have high hopes for him

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, JBears79 said:

Still too early on Cruz imo. He's showing some development in the ACL right now. Still have high hopes for him

I'm not getting too excited until the K% comes down. 

Even in his hot June, it's 38.7.%.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wing only went 1 scoreless before he was pulled.

The MB announcer isn't sure why he was pulled.

[Bertz]

Wing only went one inning, hoping that's an inning management thing and not an injury

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Owen Ayers hit his 20th HR of the season between South Bend and Knoxville.

[Jason Ross]

42 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Owen Ayers hit his 20th HR of the season between South Bend and Knoxville.

Dude is legitimately exciting. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Just noticed they sent Luke Little down to Knoxville. Woof

[JBears79]

15 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I'm not getting too excited until the K% comes down. 

Even in his hot June, it's 38.7.%.

Totally fair. I get it. I'd like to see that come down in the second half as well. Age is on his side at the moment so I'm cautiously optimistic.