Article: Hottovy / Shota

[mk49]

I like Shota, and I enjoyed reading this.  This is more or less what I was thinking about his performance at the end of the season.  I hope Tommy is right, and Shota will perform well next year.

https://www.mlb.com/news/shota-imanaga-returns-to-cubs-after-accepting-qualifying-offer

Edited November 23, 2025 by mk49

[Bertz]

This is a good read.  I think several things are true with Shota

- It's clear that the hamstring injury impacted him, specifically on the velocity front

- There's no promise that he will be totally fixed with the injury behind him

- On that note, his velocity was already down half a tick pre injury.  Though April weather in Chicago sometimes does that

- Shota's underlying numbers don't justify his 3.73 ERA, though he's due some positive regression on K's and dongs so it's not nearly as bad as his FIP makes it look

- Low velocity SPs are not generally the best aging demographic

All told Shota's a good bounce back candidate, but we should be clear eyed that the median outcome is probably Taillon with a strikeout rate a couple points higher.  That's worth the QO but firmly in "quality #4 starter" territory.

[BKHoo]

Eh I don’t know. I don’t see it. I see a pitcher in decline that gives up too many HRs. 22 million is a lot to go give to a guy who was not trusted at the end of last year. 

I hope to be wrong - I hope he bounces back. I love his personality and his love for Chicago. 

[mk49]

Well, if Shota bounces back next year, every Cubs fan would be happy.  Let's just hope that's going to happen.   

If Shota pitches like before the injury, including 2024 and Jamo pitches like the 2nd half of the last season, and they are #4 and #5 of the rotation (after Steele comes back, or they can have a 6 SP rotation), that would be a very good rotation.  Somebody that they're going to sign (Cease, Valdez, Ryan, King, Imai or whoever or not😁), Horton, Boyd, Steele, Shota and Jamo.  Then, Rea, Assad and Brown can be bullpen guys.  Another guy I really hope him to bounce back is Hodge.  Then, Palencia and one or two lefty, maybe Pomerantz?  I know I'm being very optimistic, but you know a fan needs to dream about it.

The decline thing about Shota came fast and not for very long period of time, before the season/post season ended.  As Tommy said, it was just a matter of time, but they just ran out of time with the season.  I really hope he's right about that.

I guess Shota really loves Chicago and the Cubs.  I think he's not just saying it.

Edited November 24, 2025 by mk49

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, Bertz said:

This is a good read.  I think several things are true with Shota

- It's clear that the hamstring injury impacted him, specifically on the velocity front

- There's no promise that he will be totally fixed with the injury behind him

- On that note, his velocity was already down half a tick pre injury.  Though April weather in Chicago sometimes does that

I checked bb Savant.  In mid-April 2025 he had a start in SD where he dipped down to 89 mph and sat around 90-91.  To compare, in 2024 he had a start in mid-April in Seattle and sat 92-93.  Thought since it was an early MLB start for him in 2024 that adrenaline might be a factor, so checked a start a month later in ATL and he was sitting the same.

The mechanics/slot might be linked to the injury and/or layoff but i'm not convinced the velo is.  His groundball% was even worse before the injury than after.  Hoping they can improve that.

17 hours ago, Bertz said:

All told Shota's a good bounce back candidate, but we should be clear eyed that the median outcome is probably Taillon with a strikeout rate a couple points higher.  That's worth the QO but firmly in "quality #4 starter" territory.

Problem with both Shota and Taillon is that they'll both be a year older so both could easily decline further from 2025.  It's possible either start the year with more velo dips, which would be concerning.

Overall I could see Shota improving on some things but see both he and Taillon as trending downward based on age.  Hoping it doesn't affect things too much this year for them.

Edited November 24, 2025 by Stratos

[Bertz]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

I checked bb Savant.  In mid-April 2025 he had a start in SD where he dipped down to 89 mph and sat around 90-91.  To compare, in 2024 he had a start in mid-April in Seattle and sat 92-93.  Thought since it was an early MLB start for him in 2024 that adrenaline might be a factor, so checked a start a month later in ATL and he was sitting the same.

The mechanics/slot might be linked to the injury and/or layoff but i'm not convinced the velo is.  His groundball% was even worse before the injury than after.  Hoping they can improve that.

Problem with both Shota and Taillon is that they'll both be a year older so both could easily decline further from 2025.  It's possible either start the year with more velo dips, which would be concerning.

Overall I could see Shota improving on some things but see both he and Taillon as trending downward based on age.  Hoping it doesn't affect things too much this year for them.

I really don't recommend cherry picking like this.  For instance the Seattle game you cited was tied for the highest velo game of his career at 93 MPH.  And the Atlanta game you "just so happened" to settle on after was well above his 2024 norms as well, bookended by ten games where he never cracked a 92 MPH average.  Shota's worst velo start last year, 90.1 in that Friday afternoon disaster against the Mets, was followed six days later by his other 93 start.

Shota's fastball averaged 91.7 last year, 91.2 this year before the injury (and again, April), and 90.7 after.  There's all the additional detail Bastian laid out in his article.  It's your perogative on whether you think he'll bounce back or not but "I don't think the injury impacted his velocity" doesn't have a lot of evidence behind it.

[CubinNY]

10 hours ago, BKHoo said:

Eh I don’t know. I don’t see it. I see a pitcher in decline that gives up too many HRs. 22 million is a lot to go give to a guy who was not trusted at the end of last year. 

I hope to be wrong - I hope he bounces back. I love his personality and his love for Chicago. 

They need to give him fewer starts during the course of the season, that's all. Take a page out of the Dodgers' playbook. 

[BKHoo]

People keep bringing up Brown as part of the 2026 plan, but what is his role? 

[Rob]

7 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

People keep bringing up Brown as part of the 2026 plan, but what is his role? 

I still think there's a way to salvage something from him. The results were awful last year, but the underlying metrics paint a picture that looks something like a league-average starter despite last year's issue with home runs.

He's sitting in the 71st percentile for walks, 73rd for strikeouts and whiffs. 75th for velocity.

Despite that, he was just getting spanked. Mostly on his fastball. So maybe some offseason work on that would be helpful. Hell, maybe scrap it entirely and/or work on a cutter or two-seamer.

I'd like to see him as the swing man out of the pen in the start of the season. He's still a viable injury fill-in for 5th starter if needed, but I could also see him working his way into some high leverage innings. 

Either way, there's enough there to justify not tossing him out entirely at this stage. Let him work on stuff over the offseason and see how he's looking in camp.

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

People keep bringing up Brown as part of the 2026 plan, but what is his role? 

The Athletic has confirmed that he's staying stretched out as a SP this winter.

I suspect with Brown/Wicks/Assad one gets traded this winter, one opens next year in the big league bullpen in long relief, and the last hangs out at Iowa making starts and serving as depth.  I personally think

Brown>>Wicks>>>>>>>>>Assad

So assuming their trade value is commensurate to that I'd probably have Brown in the pen, use Wicks in a trade, and banish Assad to Iowa.

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Bertz said:

I really don't recommend cherry picking like this.  For instance the Seattle game you cited was tied for the highest velo game of his career at 93 MPH.  And the Atlanta game you "just so happened" to settle on after was well above his 2024 norms as well, bookended by ten games where he never cracked a 92 MPH average.  Shota's worst velo start last year, 90.1 in that Friday afternoon disaster against the Mets, was followed six days later by his other 93 start.

Shota's fastball averaged 91.7 last year, 91.2 this year before the injury (and again, April), and 90.7 after.  There's all the additional detail Bastian laid out in his article.  It's your perogative on whether you think he'll bounce back or not but "I don't think the injury impacted his velocity" doesn't have a lot of evidence behind it.

I don't cherry-pick data to deceive people in order to make myself look correct, that's a tactic that's manipulative and bad faith, the truth is more important than my or anyone else's egos.

I didn't check how he performed in any other starts with the velo so no I didn't cherry-pick based on velo.  The reason I chose San Diego, Seattle, and Atlanta to compare is because they're in warmer climates, as you said maybe the velo was impacted by April Chicago weather (which yes I agree could definitely happen).  All other early 2024 starts are in cold climates.

I just checked his 2nd 2025 start in Arizona at the end of March (again, not a cold climate).  He was up about 1 mph from the San Diego start a couple weeks later, but still down a tick from the Atlanta/San Diego warm climate starts the year prior.  Early-season warm weather starts in 2024 having among the best velo starts of his career as you mentioned make sense because 1. he was the youngest at this point, 2. wasn't pitching in cold weather, 3. early-in-his-MLB-career adrenaline could also have been a factor.

Also, I didn't say "I don't think the injury impacted his velocity", I said i'm not convinced it did.  Meaning it's possible it had an impact , it's a causation/correlation unknown like Hottovy said.  Hottovy also thinks it likely did, so ok that's good.  But my point is that it was also down before the injury compared to a year earlier, so age is probably a factor there.  It could be age+injury?  Looking again, the article said his velo dipped in June to Aug after he came back then went up Sept-Oct so then maybe it did impact the velo.  But Hottovy also said they were doing things to improve the velo post-injury that may have impacted his mechanics, so who the heck knows.

Anyways, not trying to be an arse, i'm glad they're aware and working on all these things to get him back to where he was before.

Edited November 25, 2025 by Stratos

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Rob said:

I still think there's a way to salvage something from him. The results were awful last year, but the underlying metrics paint a picture that looks something like a league-average starter despite last year's issue with home runs.

He's sitting in the 71st percentile for walks, 73rd for strikeouts and whiffs. 75th for velocity.

Despite that, he was just getting spanked. Mostly on his fastball. So maybe some offseason work on that would be helpful. Hell, maybe scrap it entirely and/or work on a cutter or two-seamer.

I'd like to see him as the swing man out of the pen in the start of the season. He's still a viable injury fill-in for 5th starter if needed, but I could also see him working his way into some high leverage innings. 

Either way, there's enough there to justify not tossing him out entirely at this stage. Let him work on stuff over the offseason and see how he's looking in camp.

Good post.  I agree, looks like they were spanking the FB.  The whiffs/K's point to the curve working well (43% whiffs on it).  Agree looks like they need to work on the FB.  Good velo but we know hitters can hit velo if the pitch itself doesn't have a good profile.  Velo just makes everything play up.  A poor fastball profile played up with good velo doesn't necessarily mean a good FB.

If he can improve the FB (like you said maybe add some cut or more run) and keep working on the 3rd pitch he could be useful as a SP.  He's got some good tools.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

11 hours ago, Rob said:

I still think there's a way to salvage something from him. The results were awful last year, but the underlying metrics paint a picture that looks something like a league-average starter despite last year's issue with home runs.

He's sitting in the 71st percentile for walks, 73rd for strikeouts and whiffs. 75th for velocity.

Despite that, he was just getting spanked. Mostly on his fastball. So maybe some offseason work on that would be helpful. Hell, maybe scrap it entirely and/or work on a cutter or two-seamer.

I'd like to see him as the swing man out of the pen in the start of the season. He's still a viable injury fill-in for 5th starter if needed, but I could also see him working his way into some high leverage innings. 

Either way, there's enough there to justify not tossing him out entirely at this stage. Let him work on stuff over the offseason and see how he's looking in camp.

He just desperately needs even an average third pitch. Cutter, 2-seam, changeup, sweeper, something.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

He just desperately needs even an average third pitch. Cutter, 2-seam, changeup, sweeper, something.

Hard to succeed if your fastball isn't good and gets hammered.  A SP can do fine with a solid FB and a good out-pitch.

[BKHoo]

How long have people been saying he needs a third pitch? I’m sure he has worked on trying to get one for a while. But eventually he needs to be a bullpen guy unless he gets one, right? 

[Bertz]

A collection of pitchers Ben Brown had better peripherals than last year:

Dylan Cease

Ranger Suarez

Edward Cabrera

Kris Bubic

Joe Ryan

Mackenzie Gore

Freddy Peralta

Quinn Priester

Kevin Gausman

Nick Pivetta

Carlos Rodon

I'm not super convinced Brown needs to change a thing personally.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

How long have people been saying he needs a third pitch? I’m sure he has worked on trying to get one for a while. But eventually he needs to be a bullpen guy unless he gets one, right? 

We're jumping the shark here. Imanaga has 318 IP since coming to America. He has a 3.73 ERA, a 4.03 xFIP, and has been worth 4 fWAR. He has the same fWAR as Bailey Ober and Bryan Bello. He doesn't "need to be in the bullpen" he's clearly an MLB caliber starting pitcher. 

He needs some work to get his arm slot back (which I think caused issues) and he needs to be healthy, because I think fastball velocity suffered for it. But he's clearly a SP. He has plus fastball shape and a nasty splitter. They tunnel really well. And he has a sweeper he can show if need be. 

[squally1313]

42 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

We're jumping the shark here. Imanaga has 318 IP since coming to America. He has a 3.73 ERA, a 4.03 xFIP, and has been worth 4 fWAR. He has the same fWAR as Bailey Ober and Bryan Bello. He doesn't "need to be in the bullpen" he's clearly an MLB caliber starting pitcher. 

He needs some work to get his arm slot back (which I think caused issues) and he needs to be healthy, because I think fastball velocity suffered for it. But he's clearly a SP. He has plus fastball shape and a nasty splitter. They tunnel really well. And he has a sweeper he can show if need be. 

I was scrolling pretty quick but pretty sure he was talking about Ben Brown

(you know, it’s hard to tell sometimes without a general discussion thread, nudge nudge)

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I was scrolling pretty quick but pretty sure he was talking about Ben Brown

(you know, it’s hard to tell sometimes without a general discussion thread, nudge nudge)

Ah. Makes sense. I can't read, either, which is an issue. 

[CubUgly]

14 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

He just desperately needs even an average third pitch. Cutter, 2-seam, changeup, sweeper, something.

Agreed, he'll have to adjust and not just hope the velocity ticks back up to where it was.  I hope he figures it out I love Shota and the fun he seems to have when it's working.  I would be great for us all if he gets it back going. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

Agreed, he'll have to adjust and not just hope the velocity ticks back up to where it was.  I hope he figures it out I love Shota and the fun he seems to have when it's working.  I would be great for us all if he gets it back going. 

The third pitch comment was about Brown, not Shota. 

[mk49]

I agree.  Ben could be good with the third pitch.  He started throwing changeups.  If he can improve the changeups, that would help.

[CubUgly]

2 hours ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

The third pitch comment was about Brown, not Shota. 

Reading comprehension -5.....sorry 🙂

[TarzanJoeWallis]

2 hours ago, CubUgly said:

Reading comprehension -5.....sorry 🙂

It was easily confused!

[thawv]

On 11/24/2025 at 11:31 PM, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

He just desperately needs even an average third pitch. Cutter, 2-seam, changeup, sweeper, something.

Very much agree.  But he's entering his 10th season in a big league system, and 9th of actual baseball due to the covid season.  Developing an effective 3rd pitch is very likely not going to happen.