Cubs-Brewers Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

He's probably in line for around 12-15 outs. Ashby is going to take the first four through Tucker, and then it's Priester, probably through the 4th or 5th. 

I don't necessarily think they have to score 4. Shota is a good pitcher, and the Cubs BP is good. The Brewers didn't score a single run after the 2nd against Civale (who got 1 whiff in 55 pitches) and Ben Brown. They had a great first two innings but they're not a juggernaut. For all of the worry on the Cubs lineup over the second half of the year. the Cubs had a 113 wRC+ in September to the Brewers 101. I'm not so sure the Cubs have to outhit the Brewers this much. 

Don't get me wrong, four would be great! But I do think we're over valuing the Brewers offensive capabilities. Especially if Chourio is out.

Issue is that the Brewers aren't strictly a wRC+ offense, they rely on baserunning, pressuring the defense and forcing errors etc.  3rd most runs scored in the MLB and 9th in wRC+

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, mul21 said:

Personally, I would have preferred Assad over any of the other choices for game 1 and I was shocked he was left off the roster.  In spite of his low K rate, I really think one of the reasons Assad is so effective is that he really throws the entire kitchen sink at hitters so they have no idea what pitch is coming in what count and don't have the option to sit on any particular pitch or any particular location.  So, facing a team that doesn't chase much and doesn't whiff much, why not lean into that?  We know they don't hit many homers and their quality of contact isn't elite, so take advantage of the Cubs elite defense and the fact that the Brewers are going to swing at strikes, many of which are likely to be pitcher's pitches and likely to induce less than solid contact.

I absolutely hated starting Boyd against Milwaukee (they beat him up earlier this year) on short rest (he's so far beyond the IP he's thrown in years)  when there were a lot of other options, albeit none of them ideal. 

The argument against Assad might be that low K rate and putting the ball in play isn't a great match up vs the Brewers who are the best baserunning team in the MLB this year according to FG.

Ks, lack of walks, and lefties who can control the running game make sense.  Thus Brown on the roster and Boyd game 1.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Issue is that the Brewers aren't strictly a wRC+ offense, they rely on baserunning, pressuring the defense and forcing errors etc.  3rd most runs scored in the MLB and 9th in wRC+

Well, yeah. But so are the Cubs. They are both top-3 in almost every one of the base running stats you can imagine, and when they're not, they're in the top-5. It doesn't really change the point; the Brewers are not a juggernaut offensive roster. The comparison was of recent offensive output and how around here, you'd kind of come to the conclusion the Cubs wilted into the playoffs (especially offensively).

While the Cubs had the 9th most runs in September, the Brewers had the 23rd. For all of the worry about how the Cubs offense has performed leading up to the playoffs, the Brewers have been worse. Yet, on here, you'd assume the Brewers had one of the best offenses in baseball. They're a fine offensive team who struggled more than the Cubs in recency biast. dRC+ (which factors in opposition quality) likes them less than wRC+ as well. 

The point is this; the Brewers aren't a team you really need to worry about crushing you offensively. They're not a bad offensive team either, but the Cubs shouldn't need to score five to beat this team very often, either. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Wilson A2000 said:

Soroka’s most recent form post injury is more indicative of how good a pitcher he is than his pre-injury stats. Those advocating for Soroka based on his pre-trade metrics are looking for what they want to find.

You think that Michael Soroka's most recent 8 innings are more indicative than his prior 83?

In the nicest possible way; that's not how data works, and is the literal definition of sample size error.

Max Fried gave up 7 runs in 3 innings last night. Is that more indicative of who he is moving forward, or do we think his 2025 season is a better representation of that? Soroka had a strained shoulder and his velocity is back to what it was; he didn't have his arm amputated. There is no reason on the planet to think his last eight innings outclass 10x the sample.

[Stratos]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Well, yeah. But so are the Cubs. They are both top-3 in almost every one of the base running stats you can imagine, and when they're not, they're in the top-5. It doesn't really change the point; the Brewers are not a juggernaut offensive roster. The comparison was of recent offensive output and how around here, you'd kind of come to the conclusion the Cubs wilted into the playoffs (especially offensively).

While the Cubs had the 9th most runs in September, the Brewers had the 23rd. For all of the worry about how the Cubs offense has performed leading up to the playoffs, the Brewers have been worse. Yet, on here, you'd assume the Brewers had one of the best offenses in baseball. They're a fine offensive team who struggled more than the Cubs in recency biast. dRC+ (which factors in opposition quality) likes them less than wRC+ as well. 

The point is this; the Brewers aren't a team you really need to worry about crushing you offensively. They're not a bad offensive team either, but the Cubs shouldn't need to score five to beat this team very often, either. 

They also led the MLB in runs in August. They just scored 9 on us without a HR.  Maybe they took the pedal off the gas a bit in Sept and cruised because of their lead in the standings, who knows.  My point would be they're 3rd in the MLB in runs.

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They also led the MLB in runs in August. They just scored 9 on us without a HR.  Maybe they took the pedal off the gas a bit in Sept and cruised because of their lead in the standings, who knows.  My point would be they're 3rd in the MLB in runs.

Nice, we can use full season offensive stats again. 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They also led the MLB in runs in August. They just scored 9 on us without a HR.  Maybe they took the pedal off the gas a bit in Sept and cruised because of their lead in the standings, who knows.  My point would be they're 3rd in the MLB in runs.

The Cubs scored the 5th most runs on the season but around here, you'd believe they were a below average offensive team. The point isn't who scored more runs on the year, but that if you think the Cubs struggled up to the end of the year, the Brewers struggled more. If you think the Cubs offense is trash, the Brewers scored 13 more runs on the year, or by average, .08 more runs per game, what does that make them?. If you think the Cubs have to wake up and battle it out offensively, than data suggests their ability to do that.

But I don't find either team to be offensive juggernauts and neither team are rolling out a pitcher without obvious flaws tonight. Both teams are in about the same boat. 

[mul21]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

They also led the MLB in runs in August. They just scored 9 on us without a HR.  Maybe they took the pedal off the gas a bit in Sept and cruised because of their lead in the standings, who knows.  My point would be they're 3rd in the MLB in runs.

They scored 4 unearned runs because Nico misplayed a ball he picks 99 times out of 100.  The Brewers led MLB in unearned runs scored.  Those runs still count, but I suspect they won't get many more gifts like that from an elite defensive Cubs team.

[Banks-Williams]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Do you think this is an actual skill, and if so, what about it makes it unique in the fact that he can't replicate that same success in situations where there aren't guys on base?

Yes it is a skill. It is called “keeping your cool under pressure”.  

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Banks-Williams said:

Yes it is a skill. It is called “keeping your cool under pressure”.  

He gets noticeably better results with guys on base than he does with the bases empty. If he's capable of those kind of results, why doesn't he get them when there are no guys on base?

[Banks-Williams]

Why has Colin Rea not pitched? The Cubs have played four games and he hasn’t made a single appearance. His last two starts he has around twenty strikeouts he’s been good as of late so I don’t know why Craig Counsell hasn’t pitched him once. I really don’t get his logic. 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

1 minute ago, Banks-Williams said:

Why has Colin Rea not pitched? The Cubs have played four games and he hasn’t made a single appearance. His last two starts he has around twenty strikeouts he’s been good as of late so I don’t know why Craig Counsell hasn’t pitched him once. I really don’t get his logic. 

He pitched on Wednesday.

[Wilson A2000]

3 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

You think that Michael Soroka's most recent 8 innings are more indicative than his prior 83?

In the nicest possible way; that's not how data works, and is the literal definition of sample size error.

Max Fried gave up 7 runs in 3 innings last night. Is that more indicative of who he is moving forward, or do we think his 2025 season is a better representation of that? Soroka had a strained shoulder and his velocity is back to what it was; he didn't have his arm amputated. There is no reason on the planet to think his last eight innings outclass 10x the sample.

If Soroka wasn’t injured, yes I would agree with you. Relievers and starters have a much shorter hook in the playoffs based on recent form and I would say the same for Soroka. 
 

Oddly enough, Soroka, before Saturday, had outings that were better than when he was with the Nationals. 

Edited October 6, 2025 by Wilson A2000

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

If Soroka wasn’t injured, yes I would agree with you. Relievers and starters have a much shorter hook in the playoffs based on recent form and I would say the same for Soroka. 

I don't disagree that a short hook for anyone in the playoffs is important. But I also think the pitcher that Soroka can be when he's right is likely better than what Assad can bring in the playoffs. But I think a lot of the discussion internally with the Cubs was "Do we really need two Javier Assad's?" because the overlap between he and Aaron Civale is real. They are similar softer tossing RHP who kitchen sink their way through things with low whiff stuff. Soroka overs a fastball at 95mph and a slurve that can really attack RHH and induce K's when he's right. 

In the end, they have to make a choice on what they think gives them the best shot. And I know Soroka got touched up the last game, but he also shut down the Padres the other night when called on. For his sake and the Cubs sake I hope it's better next time.

[Wilson A2000]

26 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't disagree that a short hook for anyone in the playoffs is important. But I also think the pitcher that Soroka can be when he's right is likely better than what Assad can bring in the playoffs. But I think a lot of the discussion internally with the Cubs was "Do we really need two Javier Assad's?" because the overlap between he and Aaron Civale is real. They are similar softer tossing RHP who kitchen sink their way through things with low whiff stuff. Soroka overs a fastball at 95mph and a slurve that can really attack RHH and induce K's when he's right. 

In the end, they have to make a choice on what they think gives them the best shot. And I know Soroka got touched up the last game, but he also shut down the Padres the other night when called on. For his sake and the Cubs sake I hope it's better next time.

I agree with you on this, but I’m just not as interested in what a guy did 4 months ago compared to what he’s done as a Cub during and after an injury. Relievers are just too volatile and I want to lean on his most recent outings. 

Edited October 6, 2025 by Wilson A2000

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Wilson A2000 said:

I agree with you on this, but I’m just not as interested in what a guy did 4 months ago compared to what he’s done as a Cub during and after an injury. Relievers are just too volatile.  

I don't think that's the best bet, though. I think we can both agree that whatever injury Soroka had was not one that's going to destroy him; while shoulder strains are not great, they're pretty normal stuff pitchers handle. Long term, they can suggest arm issues, but while it probably isn't as benign as a hangnail or a blister, this isn't a UCL issue. Considering the velocity is back, structurally and health wise, we should assume he's fine for the playoffs.

So, then we have to ask "why did he struggle post injury?" and I think rust and a bit of a pitching philosophy change is occurring. Look at where his fastball is landing now compared to before. The first is leading up to the TDL:

And now since:

We can see there is something different happening here. Whether or not that's because it's a mechanical thing or a new process is not really able to be seen there. But we can see things are very different right now. 

Regardless, I think the Cubs think there's a bit more here than you do. And considering that I don't think Assad and Civale have a lot of separation, Soroka probably offers a different option when things are right. 

 

[Wilson A2000]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't think that's the best bet, though. I think we can both agree that whatever injury Soroka had was not one that's going to destroy him; while shoulder strains are not great, they're pretty normal stuff pitchers handle. Long term, they can suggest arm issues, but while it probably isn't as benign as a hangnail or a blister, this isn't a UCL issue. Considering the velocity is back, structurally and health wise, we should assume he's fine for the playoffs.

So, then we have to ask "why did he struggle post injury?" and I think rust and a bit of a pitching philosophy change is occurring. Look at where his fastball is landing now compared to before. The first is leading up to the TDL:

And now since:

We can see there is something different happening here. Whether or not that's because it's a mechanical thing or a new process is not really able to be seen there. But we can see things are very different right now. 

Regardless, I think the Cubs think there's a bit more here than you do. And considering that I don't think Assad and Civale have a lot of separation, Soroka probably offers a different option when things are right. 

 

I wasn't advocating for Soroka or Assad or Civale as the game 1 starter. I didn’t think any of those had much of an advantage over the other. I just didn’t think that Soroka’s time as a National has much bearing on what he is right now. I preferred Rea. 

I’m more concerned about the Cubs offense than the pitching. The Cubs really need to score 5+ today.

[javy knows my name]

2 hours ago, Banks-Williams said:

Why has Colin Rea not pitched? The Cubs have played four games and he hasn’t made a single appearance. His last two starts he has around twenty strikeouts he’s been good as of late so I don’t know why Craig Counsell hasn’t pitched him once. I really don’t get his logic. 

Because Rea has a KYCUP of -14.