Matt Shaw's Timing is Disastrous Lately

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Katie Stratman-Imagn Images

For the first month of the second half, Matt Shaw's bat was almost carrying a limping Cubs lineup. Craig Counsell stubbornly resisted the temptation to move Shaw up to the middle of the batting order, but even though he was getting fewer plate appearances than any other regular, Shaw was a vital cog in the offense. Over 34 games from the start of the second half through August 24, he batted .298/.343/.691 in 102 plate appearances. He did it by leaning into an extreme approach, pulling the ball at an exceptional rate.

With a flat bat path, Shaw's attack direction is changing faster than his attack angle when he reaches the contact point. His insight at the outset of the second half was that he could tap into his power by taking an aggressive, pull-focused approach and getting around the ball. However, he's taken that much too far. To see how, consider his production and his key swing metrics for the three major segments of his rookie campaign:

• First Half: 63 G, 232 PA, .198/.276/.280, 69.4 mph swing speed, 9° attack angle, 4° opposite-field attack direction
• July 18-August 24: 34 G, 102 PA, .298/.343/.691, 69.8 mph, 13° attack angle, 6° pull-field attack direction
• August 26-Present: 24 G, 84 PA, .200/.274/.293, 69.9 mph, 12° attack angle, 10° pull-field attack direction

His average contact point in April and May was about 25 inches in front of his center of mass. In June and July, it moved out to about 30 inches. In August, it swept out past 35 inches. This month, his average contact point (sometimes hypothetical, as he's been swinging and missing much more often lately) is out to 37.8 inches in front of his body. Some hitters can have a modicum of success when contacting the ball that far out, and when their bat is swung about 10° around to their pull field by the time they make contact. Shaw, however, is not one of those players. He's too small to be reaching that far, and thus, being that early is only leading to lots of medium-strength, utterly unthreatening contact.

You can see this visually, by locking in on the attack direction. Here's a rolling 75-swing average of his attack direction for the full season.

This is a classic overbalancing. It's not uncommon from a rookie. Shaw has leaned too far in one direction; he's let success steer him into failure. He's gotten too attached to one idea at the plate; he needs to recalibrate and find a better balance. The Cubs' other key hitters are in similar states of confusion or disrepair. To go anywhere in October, they'll need Shaw to get back to what was working for him—but that means being open to yet another set of changes. He has to let the ball travel a bit more and open up the center of the diamond a bit. 

When he's been available, Shaw has been an asset in the field and on the bases, even during this prolonged slump. However, he can only deliver that value when he's good and trustworthy enough to be written into Counsell's lineup. The Cubs are running short on time to assess his utility to the team in the postseason. He showed some signs of returning to form during the team's road trip to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, not only homering in one game against the Reds but squaring the ball up better in Wednesday's tilt against the Pirates.

With Willi Castro available as an alternative, though, the team should evenly divide the duties at third base over their final six games. Castro has a .370 on-base percentage in September. He's not the same dynamic upside play as Shaw, but Shaw needs to prove he can get back on time in order to earn his place once the bunting is hung from the railings. So far, Shaw's summer spree looks a bit more like a hiccup than a sustainable improvement, at least for this year. He was incredibly productive, but that success is now sandwiched between long stretches of failure.

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[Development DL]

Good grief , is any one on this squad mechanically on target .  Thank goodness, they have played Earl Weaver ball on the run prevention side . 
 

High First pitch strike ratios , leading to low walk rates . Changing speeds and shapes with different angles of release , keeping hitters off the barrels .   

While that contact is into an elite defense . 
5 th in Runs Against 

Very similar to Oriole teams of the early 70s 

 

 

[UMFan83]

He's.....been distracted lately

[Development DL]

Shaw has 13 defensive runs saved .  Another cog in the elite defensive wheel . 

[Development DL]

Thankful He cares about things deeper than the game , while remaining a determined , competitive player . Great kid 

[mul21]

25 minutes ago, Development DL said:

Thankful He cares about things deeper than the game , while remaining a determined , competitive player . Great kid 

Ew

[Development DL]

Forgiveness is a beautiful thing . You go Shaw . 

[Bucktown1948]

Pulling a vanishing act to go....across the country? Unforgivable. It's a tight race. I'd think about moving on from him if he thinks so little of the team.

[Bucktown1948]

His actions are close to insubordination

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Development DL said:

Forgiveness is a beautiful thing . You go Shaw . 

Nobody goes right-wing because they're a big fan of forgiveness. Though they do occasionally make a show of performative forgiveness when they think it'll upset others.

[mikev2000]

 

[17 Seconds]

7 minutes ago, Development DL said:

Forgiveness is a beautiful thing . You go Shaw . 

this place is starting to suck

[Development DL]

All the more need for forgiveness, .  

[Development DL]

Go Cubs  

[Michael Busch Light]

Just play Castro 

[Development DL]

Sir Geoffrey Dyson like article . Well done 

[JunkyardWalrus]

Yeah, horsefeathers Shaw.

Skipping out, as a rookie, in September on the cusp of the playoffs they are backing into because his favorite racist podcaster died? So horsefeathers what, watch it on TV you profound cockwomble

horsefeathers Shaw. Inexcusable behavior, especially for a rookie. 

(Insert Cam Smith mumbling)

[Boof McLoud]

Play Castro. Trade this little fash.

[Development DL]

Thankful he is on the Cubs . 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Development DL said:

Thankful he is on the Cubs . 

Are you broken?

[Development DL]

No just forgiven , it’s quite liberating. It brings a level of freedom , that allows me to root for the good to happen . 

Edited September 23, 2025 by Development DL
Typo

[JunkyardWalrus]

8 hours ago, Development DL said:

No just forgiven , it’s quite liberating. It brings a level of freedom , that allows me to root for the good to happen . 

I don’t forgive you. Take your fake piety and shove it up your bloody Christofascist god-hole. 

You can’t forgive yourself for the same horsefeathers you persist in doing. That’s just hypocrisy. 

You are not forgiven. I do not forgive you or any of your fake ‘Christians' who only preach and never practice.

[Development DL]

Father forgive them for they know not what they do .  I pray for your peace and your murderous anger , at someone you don’t know . I forgive you 

[Sammy Sofa]

 

[sneakypower]