Cubs (Taillon) vs Braves (Sale): 9/10/25, 6:15pm

[Geographyhater8888]

18 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

So if I'm reading you correctly:

• the pitching is bad because the full year stats say that they've been bad, and we should ignore the recent stretch when they were good because they had a SOS that was at least softer than how they started the year (not sure how to compare to other teams)
• the offense is bad because the recent stretch in which they were bad, and we should ignore the full year stats because when they were good against the good part of the schedule that doesn't count

Close?

i fell into your trap again, didn’t I. You got me. That’s the gist of it. Do you have any theories on why their World Series winning probability is lower than 11 teams? If not you can respond with another paragraph reminding me how I forgot to capitalize “i” in the first sentence.

Edited September 11, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

i fell into your trap again didn’t I. You got me. That’s the gist of it. Do you have any theories on why their World Series winning probability is lower than 11 teams? Oops, I forgot to capitalize an I in the first sentence, I’m expecting you to write a paragraph about that too.

Bertz explained better than I could. I asked the question too. Ultimately I'm not worried about it, we're going to need to go win 4 coinflips to win it all. The ROS projections don't like them, for playing time purposes and because they might not think they're as good of a team. Lining up even a regressed version of their YTD xwOBA to what the ROS Depth Chart numbers show has me thinking they are undervaluing them a little bit, but....it's not going to matter much over a 3 game sample size. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

i fell into your trap again, didn’t I. You got me. That’s the gist of it. Do you have any theories on why their World Series winning probability is lower than 11 teams? If not you can respond with another paragraph reminding me how I forgot to capitalize “i” in the first sentence.

It's been explained to you a few times. It's the oddity of the projections and the data. Ultimately, splitting hairs over 3% difference is a waste of time to begin with. 

[Brian707]

I guess the model doesn't like the Cubs but likes the Mets;

 

But you know what? Screw it, just substitute Mrs Phelps for Mr Ricketts

 

 

Edited September 11, 2025 by Brian707