Pirates (Mlodzinski) vs Cubs (Assad): 8/17/25, 1:20pm

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Cubs xBA was .333 today and they had 6 hits. Batted ball luck is so low right now.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

He keeps maintaining a historically high strand rate.  There is enough of a sample size at this point to wonder if it's possible that it's sustainable.

With no runners on batters are hitting .808 OPS (.275 AVG) and with men on it's .631 OPS (.210 AVG).  There's about a seasons' worth of PA's in each scenario, so could still be luck, or maybe's he's just better in the stretch?  He's definitely a competitor though.

We'd need more data i think, like batted ball data.

RISP guys hitting .156 off him.  Usually pitchers get worse with men on due to infield placement changes.

[NorthsideAvenger]

I hope the Cubs offense get out of their own heads, relax at the plate and get back to their individual strengths. I thought they were at their best, offensively, when they work the pitchers, get on base, steal and just "pass the baton."

Don't worry about what Milwaukee, or San Diego/LA or NYM are doing, just go out and play baseball. Just relax. 

[squally1313]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

With no runners on batters are hitting .808 OPS (.275 AVG) and with men on it's .631 OPS (.210 AVG).  There's about a seasons' worth of PA's in each scenario, so could still be luck, or maybe's he's just better in the stretch?  He's definitely a competitor though.

We'd need more data i think, like batted ball data.

RISP guys hitting .156 off him.  Usually pitchers get worse with men on due to infield placement changes.

Then tell him to pitch to every batter like there’s guys on, and if he can’t turn it up like that all the time, make him a middle reliever. 
 

like, it’s 10% the slightly improved K numbers and 90% the steep, certainly unreliable drop in BABIP

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Then tell him to pitch to every batter like there’s guys on, and if he can’t turn it up like that all the time, make him a middle reliever. 
 

like, it’s 10% the slightly improved K numbers and 90% the steep, certainly unreliable drop in BABIP

While I do think there is something to be said for Assad getting out of trouble and there may be some “skill” to it since he has done it for years, I don’t think it is something the Cubs should bank on continuing at the rate it has done. He is an ok #5 pitcher who can pitch 5 innings and not bury the team. Nothing more. 

[DrCub]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Then tell him to pitch to every batter like there’s guys on, and if he can’t turn it up like that all the time, make him a middle reliever. 
 

like, it’s 10% the slightly improved K numbers and 90% the steep, certainly unreliable drop in BABIP

I’m not suggesting anything specifically, but I don’t feel you can ignore a 4.5% uptick in Ks.  

[Rcal10]

40 minutes ago, DrCub said:

I’m not suggesting anything specifically, but I don’t feel you can ignore a 4.5% uptick in Ks.  

This is true. But also can’t ignore the .130 point drop in BABIP without thinking there can also be some real luck involved. 

[squally1313]

38 minutes ago, DrCub said:

I’m not suggesting anything specifically, but I don’t feel you can ignore a 4.5% uptick in Ks.  

Right, it's not nothing, but that goes back to my first point. If he can pitch better in certain situations, from the stretch, etc....we should be wanting him to do it that way all the time. It's like claiming some hitter is clutch or whatever....they're professional baseball players, why can't they perform at that level consistently?

If he can't for stamina or whatever other reasons, then he's probably more effective in shorter doses.

[DrCub]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Right, it's not nothing, but that goes back to my first point. If he can pitch better in certain situations, from the stretch, etc....we should be wanting him to do it that way all the time. It's like claiming some hitter is clutch or whatever....they're professional baseball players, why can't they perform at that level consistently?

If he can't for stamina or whatever other reasons, then he's probably more effective in shorter doses.

I could not agree more as to wanting him to do it all the time if it’s a skill, but there is enough evidence that it MAY be something that he’s doing possibly even subconsciously.  It could be pitch selection in that situation, or compete and utter luck, or some other variable.  It just seems as though there could be something unexplainable (as of now) there when the sample size gets big enough.  I think a deep dive into it would be warranted to see.  You may be right in that it’s a stamina thing, and he’s better suited for the pen.  I would live to see someone way above my pay grade do that deep dive and see if there’s anything meaningful there.  

[CubUgly]

12 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

I hope the Cubs offense get out of their own heads, relax at the plate and get back to their individual strengths. I thought they were at their best, offensively, when they work the pitchers, get on base, steal and just "pass the baton."

Don't worry about what Milwaukee, or San Diego/LA or NYM are doing, just go out and play baseball. Just relax. 

At this port there is in my opinion, without question a large mental component to this.  The body language is very telling to me that most of our guys are feeling the anxiety we are feeling just watching them.  They are pressing and it's showing.