2025 MLB Draft Day 2 Thread: Chicago Cubs Draft on North Side Baseball

[craig]

Jerzembeck is a pick I'm very interested in.  My prototype for 3rd-day 11th-round overslot is young, projectible HS guy.  Hope or Lovich.  But while Jerzembeck is already 22, I still envision him as being hypothetically a high-ceiling guy, *IF* he can get fully healthy, and *IF* health and maturation eventually make him stronger an faster than he was as a high-end HS prospect, or an SEC freshman.  

I'm really curious whether he's going to just be a $150 slot guy, or if Kantro likes him enough to overslot him some.  If so, by how much?  That might hint at how much he likes Jerzembeck.

If he had stress fracture in elbow, and 2-screws installed as part of the treatment in February, I wonder how fast that could rehab?  Ready for a mostly normal season next spring/summer?  Or perhaps largely a slow, cautious, Mesa rehab summer, and maybe not pitching minor-league box-score games till Spring 2027?  Beats me.  

But would sure love a happy story for him and the Cubs.  

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, craig said:

Jerzembeck is a pick I'm very interested in.  My prototype for 3rd-day 11th-round overslot is young, projectible HS guy.  Hope or Lovich.  But while Jerzembeck is already 22, I still envision him as being hypothetically a high-ceiling guy, *IF* he can get fully healthy, and *IF* health and maturation eventually make him stronger an faster than he was as a high-end HS prospect, or an SEC freshman.  

I'm really curious whether he's going to just be a $150 slot guy, or if Kantro likes him enough to overslot him some.  If so, by how much?  That might hint at how much he likes Jerzembeck.

If he had stress fracture in elbow, and 2-screws installed as part of the treatment in February, I wonder how fast that could rehab?  Ready for a mostly normal season next spring/summer?  Or perhaps largely a slow, cautious, Mesa rehab summer, and maybe not pitching minor-league box-score games till Spring 2027?  Beats me.  

But would sure love a happy story for him and the Cubs.  

I think the elbow fracture takes about as long to rehab as a TJ.  That said in most of the instances I can think of it's usually done on guys with multiple TJs.  Codi Heuer for instance.  Maybe it's not as bad if you've only got one TJ already?

But my default assumption would be he's not pitching next April, and maybe not til closer to nowish next year.

[nochiinchamp]

1 hour ago, craig said:

I don't see it this way at all.  I don't see this as a "conservative", high-floor draft at all. 

1. Very many of the picks had injury factors.  Injured guys have low-floors.  
2. I think they actually gambled a lot on risky injury guys in order to get higher ceilings. 
3. Likewise I think some of the injuries may delay some players?  So, I'm not sure they're really prioritizing advanced, be-ready-soon guys.  Conrad hasn't played much top-level college, and won't start till next spring.  Coppola has only like 40 innings of college baseball.  Jerzembeck ~30 innings?  I don't even know whether either of those two will be 100% by next spring, or might still burn a bunch of 2026 on rehab?  If Franklin had TJ only months ago, he won't do much of anything till 2027.  So I guess I'm thinking with all the injury pitchers, that doesn't feel like either high-floor or fast-track philosophy.
4. Every draft pick every year has various risk/reward, ceiling/floor unpredictabilities. I don't see this group as being all that different.  I think perhaps lots of the injuries changes the nature of some of the risks.  
5. Every one of the injury guys, the injury provides risk; but the "ceiling" is that *IF* the guy turns out healthy, you might get variably excellent value?
6. A lot of the injury stuff compromises scouting looks and developmental progress.  How much healthy Coppola has anybody ever seen?  Jerzembeck?   Hartshorn?  *IF* these guys get or stay healthy, they may have some pretty good major-league upside.  But with so little game action, super unpredictable what they will be future.  So safe/conservative/advanced/high-floor, I don't really see that for most of the picks.  
7. Kepley is kinda different.  He hasn't been injured, whatever his ceiling may be, it certainly does not include power.  
8. Reid, he maybe hasn't had the injury history, but when a guy is ranked 209 by pipeline, and doesn't have velocity or breaking-ball yet, that's obviously another scouting pick.  Definitively a risky ceiling pick, risk that velocity doesn't add, and ala Ryan-Jensen he never figures out a slider or curveball.  
9. Wing seems high risk.   Skinny guy, hasn't thrown hard for long, hasn't pitched much.  Recept pop-up guy, who knows if that will be sustainable?  But easy to dream that his potential upside could be high. 
10. Hartshorn, bit ceiling, but injuries alone make super high risk?  Like any HS power hitter, who knows if they can actually handle pro pitching? 

So yeah, to me, other than maybe Kepley, this draft seems very heavy on risky shots on guys with good ceilings but risky-low floors.  

I think what makes this lean more "safe" is the relative likelihood of a given college guy to play at the upper levels within 2-3 years. Yeah, a lot of these guys are hurt, but the bet is that if they're healthy they give the org options near the big league level relatively soon, at a cost that understates their talent.

[craig]

Thanks, Bertz.  That's kinda what I was guessing too.  That even if he's "pitching" next summer, it's mostly late-start, and mostly "pitching" to regain strength and confidence in his arm, rather than "pitching" to get guys out.  Kinda guessing that 2027 might be his first year really pitching healthy/strong and throwing all his pitches to get outs and win, not to say "the important thing was to get some innings in".  

An interesting thing that might indicate faster:  I think I read that Jerzembeck had entered transfer portal.  Not sure I'd do that if I figured to miss all spring college season anyway?  So guessing he maybe at least hoped/aspired to be pitching next college spring.  Cubs usually are pretty appropriately carerful, though.  

[craig]

28 minutes ago, nochiinchamp said:

I think what makes this lean more "safe" is the relative likelihood of a given college guy to play at the upper levels within 2-3 years. Yeah, a lot of these guys are hurt, but the bet is that if they're healthy they give the org options near the big league level relatively soon, at a cost that understates their talent.

Yeah, if a college guy stays healthy and is actually good, you're right that they should get to AA within 2-3 years, that's true.  

Not sure the Cubs draft is unusual, though?  4 HS picks.  Given that HS players don't sign for the $150 slot, how many teams are drafting/signing many HS guys after the first 5 rounds?  

I just checked for volume of HS picks in recent Kantro drafts:

1. 2025:  4
2. 2024:  3
3. 2022:  3

So in a sense, I don't see an unusual ratio.  When you don't have a big pool, and not many HS guys want $150 slot, I think this may be kinda normal.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

5 minutes ago, craig said:

Thanks, Bertz.  That's kinda what I was guessing too.  That even if he's "pitching" next summer, it's mostly late-start, and mostly "pitching" to regain strength and confidence in his arm, rather than "pitching" to get guys out.  Kinda guessing that 2027 might be his first year really pitching healthy/strong and throwing all his pitches to get outs and win, not to say "the important thing was to get some innings in".  

An interesting thing that might indicate faster:  I think I read that Jerzembeck had entered transfer portal.  Not sure I'd do that if I figured to miss all spring college season anyway?  So guessing he maybe at least hoped/aspired to be pitching next college spring.  Cubs usually are pretty appropriately carerful, though.  

My wife is a South Carolina alum and she told me there was a falling out between South Carolina coaches and Jerzembeck because the coaches tried to have him rush back from Tommy John, which he felt eventually led to the stress reaction. That was the main reason for him hitting the transfer portal.

Given the two surgeries in consecutive years, I wonder if he wasn't sure he'd get drafted this year. If he pitched next season in college, that's great but even otherwise, another, friendlier program would allow him to rehab and do bullpen sessions for MLB teams before the 2026 draft.

[craig]

One more thought...  

Years ago, there was a sense that if you draft a college pitcher, there wasn't much projection or developmental upside.  But now with all the pitch-labs, that isn't reality.  College pick often add velo, and often revise or develop different  pitch shapes. The way pitchers remake themselves, seemingly at almost any age, I'm not sure that being young is that necessary for developmental potential?  Particularly for college pitchers whose development has been delayed by injury, perhaps they might still have significant undeveloped developmental potential?  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

17 minutes ago, craig said:

One more thought...  

Years ago, there was a sense that if you draft a college pitcher, there wasn't much projection or developmental upside.  But now with all the pitch-labs, that isn't reality.  College pick often add velo, and often revise or develop different  pitch shapes. The way pitchers remake themselves, seemingly at almost any age, I'm not sure that being young is that necessary for developmental potential?  Particularly for college pitchers whose development has been delayed by injury, perhaps they might still have significant undeveloped developmental potential?  

Yes, completely agree. 

It doesn't even go for just injured prospects. There's some expectation the Cubs can help Reid coax a bit more velocity and improve his slider/breaking pitch.

There's a biomechanics component that goes into the Cubs (and other team's) draft models which can help them notice guys who they feel they can help improve.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hartshorn had a really good workout at Wrigley.

Also sounds like some of the pitchers who pitched in summer leagues right before the draft might be able to get some minor league innings this year itself because they didn't ramp down from their college season (I know Noah Edders pitched in a summer draft league).

[JBears79]

The way MLB teams have been developing pitchers with different pitch shapes and biomechanics is really interesting to me. I'm eager to see what Zombro can do with some of these arms.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Hartshorn had a really good workout at Wrigley.

Also sounds like some of the pitchers who pitched in summer leagues right before the draft might be able to get some minor league innings this year itself because they didn't ramp down from their college season (I know Noah Edders pitched in a summer draft league).

This is really really great.  

I know Greg Z mentioned at one point yesterday maybe not a ton of savings on the seniors.  I'd guess that's specifically or at least especially referring to Snell, based on how Kantrovitz raves about him.

Also pretty shocked that he didn't just plead the 5th on Barnett.

[craig]

In the old pre-cap days, they'd often draft a couple of college-bound guys in rounds 30-40 as reallocation contingency, in case somebody drafted higher decided not to sign or failed a physical.  Given the health history for Conrad and Harshorn, perhaps Barnett pick is contingency *IF* one of them red-flags their physical?

[Named After Maddux]

1 hour ago, craig said:

In the old pre-cap days, they'd often draft a couple of college-bound guys in rounds 30-40 as reallocation contingency, in case somebody drafted higher decided not to sign or failed a physical.  Given the health history for Conrad and Harshorn, perhaps Barnett pick is contingency *IF* one of them red-flags their physical?

Barnett is their insurance policy. I think mostly with Hartshorn. If something red flags with him, they can offer Barnett a bunch and have a good chance. Barnett was originally one of their 11th round overslot options when they had game planned to have extra money. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

9 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

 

We’re to the point where NDFAs can hit upper 90s:

 

[nochiinchamp]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

This is really really great.  

I know Greg Z mentioned at one point yesterday maybe not a ton of savings on the seniors.  I'd guess that's specifically or at least especially referring to Snell, based on how Kantrovitz raves about him.

Also pretty shocked that he didn't just plead the 5th on Barnett.

Eh. It seemed like Kantrovitz was pretty upbeat about the big bonuses they probably gave out in rounds 4-6. If those are basically done no real reason to tip toe around Barnett, who was there presumably to eat up any significant bonus money that unexpectedly fell through.

[craig]

I thought it would be fun to guess how Kantro would divvy up his dollars.  This is total guesswork, for sure, but just trying to have something hypothetical.  

Overslots:

1. Wing, $1.2 (~$0.6M overslot)
2. Hartshorn, $1.4 (~1.0 overslot)
3.    Jerzembeck, $0.3.  (~$150K overslot)    

Underslots:

1. Conrad:  $4.0K ($750 under)
2. Kepley:  $1.4. ($280 under)
3. Reid:  $700K ($165 under)
4. Picks 8-9-10:  $175 each (~$90K under, combined).  ($175 is still better than 3rd day slot, so they'd each have motive to agree.). 
5. $482 overage.  

That's totally guessing, of course.  But just trying to guesstimate what kinds of superslots Wing and Hartshorn might be getting, and what it would take to cover them. This is also kinda assuming Greg's inside dope on Conrad taking a big underslot is true.

I like to take a guess in advance, just for the fun of it.  My $1.4 for Hartshorn would match bottom of round 2 (last two picks have slot just under $1.4).  $1.2 for wing would match 2nd-round comp slot; 1st pick of round slots at $1.08.  So both of my Hartshorn/Wing numbers would pay them better-than-3rd-round slots.  

 

 

 

Edited July 16, 2025 by craig

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Wow, Kiley McDaniel really liked the Cubs draft: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45709418/mlb-draft-2025-kiley-mcdaniel-recap-analysis-all-30-teams#chc

Quote

Chicago Cubs

Best value: Josiah Hartshorn (sixth round, mocked to the Cubs on Friday). He was getting second-round reviews as a long-time standout hitter in the class with a good approach. He is limited to a corner but grew into easy plus raw power this spring.

Quickest to the big leagues: Kade Snell (fifth round) or Nate Williams (13th round). Snell will be 23 in a few weeks and Williams turns 24 in September. They'll be pushed, but they both performed well in the SEC so they shouldn't last long in A-ball -- particularly Williams since he pitched only in relief and has an above-average four-seam/curveball combo.

Sleeper to watch: Kaleb Wing (fourth round). He was a favorite of a number of analytical teams that are good at pitching development, with the Cubs also in that group. He's a standout athlete with a clean delivery and three pitches with above-average potential, though is only 6-foot-2.

Colton Book (ninth round) is an lefty with very light velocity but enormous extension (something the Cubs seem to be targeting) and 6-foot-8 lefty Pierce Coppola (seventh round) has had some trouble staying healthy (under 50 innings in four seasons at Florida) but always strikes out a ton of batters, even more than his raw stuff suggests.

One big thought: Ethan Conrad (No. 17 overall) and Kane Kepley (No. 56 overall) give this class two likely big leaguers with everyday potential and I'll guess Dominick Reid (No. 90 overall; solid-average stuff with strong results) and Snell created some savings to land Wing and Hartshorn.

I like the combination of getting to the performers and seniors early to get the best of that group to create savings and to actually land top-three-rounds high school players with the savings, not just taking what's left over. There appears to be a real strategy here and one that worked, landing players I think will outperform their draft position -- something that can't be said about that many teams.

 

[Bertz]

26 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I like the combination of getting to the performers and seniors early to get the best of that group to create savings and to actually land top-three-rounds high school players with the savings, not just taking what's left over. There appears to be a real strategy here and one that worked,

I really like the way he articulated this.  There's been a lot of "this draft was weird" but I don't think it was.  It looked weird at 10 PM on Sunday, but once the Wing and especially Hartshorn picks came down it was like "Oh okay there it is".

[craig]

I like the Hartshorn review,  "easy plus raw power" but "with a good approach" is encouraging.  Power is always fun, of course.  But lots of strong power guys who can't get to it.  Any reviews encouraging the idea that he might have a good approach and actually be a good hitter who can get to his power, I enjoy those.  

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, craig said:

I like the Hartshorn review,  "easy plus raw power" but "with a good approach" is encouraging.  Power is always fun, of course.  But lots of strong power guys who can't get to it.  Any reviews encouraging the idea that he might have a good approach and actually be a good hitter who can get to his power, I enjoy those.  

You'll like this too from Keith Law

Quote

High school outfielder Josiah Hartshorn (6) has some bat speed and superb contact rates, with an impossible 4 percent whiff rate on fastballs in tracked events in 2024-25, along with 55 to 60 raw power right now. He’s not a great athlete and is going to end up in an outfield corner.

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

6 hours ago, craig said:

I thought it would be fun to guess how Kantro would divvy up his dollars.  This is total guesswork, for sure, but just trying to have something hypothetical.  

Overslots:

1. Wing, $1.2 (~$0.6M overslot)
2. Hartshorn, $1.4 (~1.0 overslot)
3.    Jerzembeck, $0.3.  (~$150K overslot)    

Underslots:

1. Conrad:  $4.0K ($750 under)
2. Kepley:  $1.4. ($280 under)
3. Reid:  $700K ($165 under)
4. Picks 8-9-10:  $175 each (~$90K under, combined).  ($175 is still better than 3rd day slot, so they'd each have motive to agree.). 
5. $482 overage.  

That's totally guessing, of course.  But just trying to guesstimate what kinds of superslots Wing and Hartshorn might be getting, and what it would take to cover them. This is also kinda assuming Greg's inside dope on Conrad taking a big underslot is true.

I like to take a guess in advance, just for the fun of it.  My $1.4 for Hartshorn would match bottom of round 2 (last two picks have slot just under $1.4).  $1.2 for wing would match 2nd-round comp slot; 1st pick of round slots at $1.08.  So both of my Hartshorn/Wing numbers would pay them better-than-3rd-round slots.  

 

 

 

I'm going with $1.6 million for Hartshorn because Kiley McDaniel was consistently mocking Hartshorn to the Cubs second round pick (he clearly had good intel) and slot for their second rounder was $1.68 million.

[craig]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

You'll like this too from Keith Law

...Hartshorn (6) has some bat speed and superb contact rates, with an impossible 4 percent whiff rate on fastballs in tracked events in 2024-25, along with 55 to 60 raw power...

Wow, no kidding do I like that!  A super-power guy with superb contract rates?  Boy, do I ever love that!

Dumb Q, from a non-super-saber-smart boy.  What kind of whiff-rates are typical on fastballs?  I'd have had zero context for whether that was impossible or routine.  

[craig]

3 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I'm going with $1.6 million for Hartshorn because Kiley McDaniel was consistently mocking Hartshorn to the Cubs second round pick (he clearly had good intel) and slot for their second rounder was $1.68 million.

Good thought.  I like your guess better than mine!  Could easily get that extra $0.2, whether by triming Wing or Jerzembeck's over; by increasing the under on the 7-10 guys; or increasing the under on Reid and Kepley. 

To some degree, I almost feel like the bigger Hartshorn's bonus, the more I like the draft and the draft strategy?   

[CaliforniaRaisin]