nochiinchamp

Pivetta rehabbing?

Ooh, I get to be the hot take guy today. It seems like fans are overrating Hartshorn. That top ~50ish ranking seems pretty well calibrated to me. 55 power guy with a 55 hit tool and not a ton of defensive value. Really good prospect with a chance to give you some 3-4 WAR seasons. Absolutely a guy who you trade to get controllable pitching (like Detmers) when you're in the Cubs' situation, though.

Eh. It seemed like Kantrovitz was pretty upbeat about the big bonuses they probably gave out in rounds 4-6. If those are basically done no real reason to tip toe around Barnett, who was there presumably to eat up any significant bonus money that unexpectedly fell through.

I think what makes this lean more "safe" is the relative likelihood of a given college guy to play at the upper levels within 2-3 years. Yeah, a lot of these guys are hurt, but the bet is that if they're healthy they give the org options near the big league level relatively soon, at a cost that understates their talent.

I never meant to imply that you thought it was bad. All I'm saying is that teams play the hand they're dealt. Their systems are in a particular state at a particular time. Their resources differ at different times. Each class has different strengths. So, they'll behave differently. 2025 feels different because they have a rapidly depleting farm and haven't had this little money relative to the rest of the league since 2021 (when they also went quite "safe" up top).

I think we try to turn decisions that are ultimately based on a lot of circumstance into general principles. They took Cape performers up and down the board this year. They took an advanced college bat in the second last year too. Batted ball data was a real factor in picking up both Conrad and Hartshorn. There was no day between rounds 10 and 11 to figure out how to get that one last prep shot. There are plenty of ways to find value. You can pop in a model for an entirely different reason than someone else. I don't think Kantrovitz is picky about it when the resources are limited. He's just trying to maximize collective WAR.

I don't really see it as odd at all. The Cubs had a limited pool and needed to build out organizational depth. So, they leaned on college guys. The twist is that they're also trading off injury risk to ensure that they still have a shot at impact on a discount. Fun play. Even if Coppola's arm blows out, as an example, there's a shot it does so helping a winning major league team in 2027 or something.

Coppola had a 46.7% K rate this year. 21.1 IP but lmfao

He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who'd develop tremendous trade value or anything. Maybe he could help get them a good bullpen arm eventually? But I think they just want on-base skills and CF defense in the system and ready to contribute soon.

I think the models just really like the combination of plate/contact skills + up the middle ability. I think the developmental staff's bet is that if the guy is athletic enough and has some bat speed he could get to the minimum amount of power needed to be productive overall.

I think it's just that their bonus pool is limited and their farm is depleting, so they want to make sure there's not a cliff of big league ready talent and are defaulting to guys the model is indicating are good bets to be contributors come like...2027-2028.

Eh. Second rounders are mostly 40ish FV types. I think that Kantrovitz was just trying to bank a player he thinks will be useful in short order and that's where the value comes from. Seems like Kepley is a really safe bet to reach the big leagues and be an optionable 1-1.5 WAR guy in a couple of years. If you get a few hundred thousand in savings, I get it, I guess.

I wonder how aggressive they'll be with Kepley. Seems like the low minors are exactly the place where he just won't be challenged in a meaningful way since offensive profile is basically all OBP.

Kantrovitz indicated that they'll have "flexibility". Would be fun if that means that they have enough money for Bauer or something, but I'm assuming it's more along the lines of being able to give a couple of guys close to $1M.

Love the idea of Melendez. Longenhagen talked about him fitting into the Jett Williams/Kevin McGonigle mold physically while being able to rotate. Real MIF skills. Super young for the class too. Would be shocked if he's not high on their board.