Cubs (Imanaga) vs Twins (Woods Richardson): 7/8/25, 6:40pm

[squally1313]

Giving up on relievers with a track record of success after a small amount of struggles and a blow up, April is back!

[NorthsideAvenger]

42 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Just one game and really, I don’t give a horsefeathers about the Brewers. Cubs are better and within a few weeks will have an improved starting staff.  They’ll be facing another substandard starter tomorrow, I don’t think that leave junk over the middle trick is going to work again for the Twins.

Agreed.

It seems every time the Brewers get close to the Cubs, Chicago to move back to 4 or 5 games in front. When Mil does inevitably go on a 2nd half cold spell, that is when the Cubs will put some distance between them and Mil.

I do not care about tonight. Would not surprise me if the Cubs win the next two and get their lead back over 4.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Brewers rotation just went from a C to an A over the last few weeks and they just keep getting just enough offense. They should probably be pretty active at the deadline as well. This is gonna be a battle. 

We badly need 2 guys for the rotation. Shota keeps getting the job done but hes basically been a contact manager. I would not feel that confident with him in a playoff game TBH. That goes for Taillon as well as Horton. 

[17 Seconds]

2 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Just one game and really, I don’t give a horsefeathers about the Brewers. Cubs are better and within a few weeks will have an improved starting staff.  They’ll be facing another substandard starter tomorrow, I don’t think that leave junk over the middle trick is going to work again for the Twins.

feels like people have been saying that about the brewers for like a decade now

[CubUgly]

7 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

feels like people have been saying that about the brewers for like a decade now

They've been playing Jed's song - outperforming projections....for that whole decade too.  Got to beat them when we play them to slay that dragon!  But last night was maybe one of the most disappointing performances all year.  He'll Shota was very fortunate only to have given up two runs they were hitting rockets off him all night. 

[Soul]

The Brewers are playing good because they are good.

[We Got The Whole 9]

7 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

feels like people have been saying that about the brewers for like a decade now

Yeah they pretty much usurped our dynasty and we had to take drastic measures and hire a mercenary to possibly get the division back 6 years later

[We Got The Whole 9]

Among pitchers with 60+ IP Shota has the 17th lowest K rate, right there with Mikolas, Quintana, Martinez, and... Rea

 

What the heck happened? He is still getting well above average chase, but hitters are making ocontact at a much higher rate. He's also way down on first pitch strikes and his zone% is up significantly. Contact is way up. Stuff and location are both up, although slightly.

 

Just 15 Ks over his last 5 starts, 27 IP. 

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Among pitchers with 60+ IP Shota has the 17th lowest K rate, right there with Mikolas, Quintana, Martinez, and... Rea

 

What the heck happened? He is still getting well above average chase, but hitters are making ocontact at a much higher rate. He's also way down on first pitch strikes and his zone% is up significantly. Contact is way up. Stuff and location are both up, although slightly.

 

Just 15 Ks over his last 5 starts, 27 IP. 

Poor fastball placement. Here are a few charts. The first two are 2024. Left is total fastball placement, right is fastball swing and miss location. 

 

Now, compare to 2025:

 

He's leaving more fastballs down. This is bad in general, but worse for someone like Imanaga, who's fastball has significant ride. It floats up into the zone, right into the bat path. When you throw 90 and it trickles into the zone like that, you get HR's. He's still getting good whiff in-zone on the pitch, but he needs to elevate more frequently. What makes his fastball special is that the ride allows him to get over bats at the top-end of the zone. But he's missing it pretty consistently. 

His arm-angle is a bit lower this year than last year. Whether that's on purpose (the Cubs love lower arm slots) or just mechanical flaw, is hard to know. But it could also be playing into the slightly lower fastball placement, too.