Trade Deadline 2025, Exploring The Cubs' Weaknesses: Third Base

[RandallPnkFloyd]

Image courtesy of Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

The calendar now reads July, indicating an increased fervor around potential trade candidates. Given the Chicago Cubs' increasingly-apparent needs, they're primed to exist firmly in the middle of a handful of various rumors in connection with a handful of various targets. Starting pitching will grab the bulk of the headlines in that respect, but third base likely won't be too far behind. 

As a lineup, the Cubs are in solid standing. We knew this going back to the offseason when they had very little flexibility considering how many different players are firmly entrenched in their spot for 2025. Third base, though, was seen as the one position in which the team could use an upgrade. Not much has changed on that front midway through the season. 

This, of course, comes after Matt Shaw was given the third base job out of spring training, subsequently struggled, and was optioned before returning after about a month in Iowa. While there has been marked improvement, it's a position that still leaves plenty to be desired for the Cubs at large, at least on the offensive side. 

Prior to his demotion, Shaw's slash carried at just .172/.294/.241. He was striking out nearly 27 percent of the time while offering very little when he was making contact. His ISO checked in at just .069, and his his Hard-Hit% read just 22.5 percent. His wRC+ was 62. Just about everywhere on the stat sheet indicated Shaw as the team's worst hitter through roughly a month. The defense hadn't progressed at that point either, leading to the Iowa stint.

Upon his return, though, we've seen plenty of improvement on the Shaw front. His slash since his mid-May return reads .246/.303/.352, with a strikeout rate down to 18.2 percent and a slight uptick in contact quality (27.6 Hard-Hit%). He still isn't providing much on the power front, however, as his ISO is just .107 during this recent stretch. His wRC+, at 87, still indicates a below-average performer. So, while the defense has gotten better, both from the eye test and on the stat sheet, third base still represents a position that the Cubs need more from, especially as we've seen them prone to bouts of offensive depression.

The Cubs will, undoubtedly, be heavily involved in trade discussions for starting pitching. But, given how much a veteran third baseman could help to stabilize the lineup over Shaw's still-developing bat, it could behoove them to pursue such a player ahead of the July 31st deadline. 

That's not to say I'm suggesting the Cubs pull the plug on Matt Shaw as an option, mind you. The Cubs are in a position where they represent a top National League contender. There's a certain degree of uncertainty with Kyle Tucker as an impending free agent, so there's a need to fortify the 2025 roster as much as possible. A move for a third baseman wouldn't represent a long-term change in terms of Shaw's involvement in the lineup; it would merely serve to boost the lineup for the short-term as it relates to this season. 

The issue is that there aren't a wealth of candidates that appear feasible for such a move. 

Philadelphia Phillies third sacker Alec Bohm, for example, is a player that has been floated in trade rumors for the last couple of winters. And while the Phillies could move him to change the shape of their own roster, they're still a contending team, and Bohm still has another year of team control, to say nothing of the fact that while his approach and defense have remained strong, his power has taken a massive dip in '25 (.109 ISO). So, even if the Phillies were interested in moving him in-season, you're not improving your roster in a preferred manner. 

It's not an entirely dissimilar situation with Colorado's Ryan McMahon, who was floated as a name the Cubs were interested earlier in the year but presents issues on a couple of fronts. For one, his contract runs for two seasons beyond 2025. He does have some versatility, but it's not as if the Cubs have openings elsewhere when they'd be ready to give Shaw another run in '26. For another, he's striking out at a clip over 30 percent, and his impact is certainly of a higher quality at home (.230 ISO) versus away (.134). So, despite the purported interest earlier this year, we can probably rule him out as well. 

Which brings us to Alex Bregman. He's having his best season since roughly 2019, thriving both in approach (9.7 percent walk rate) and impact (.254 ISO). Playing his home games at Fenway has helped some, as it's been the ninth-most favorable park for righties by Statcast's Park Factors. Nonetheless, we know the team had interest in the offseason (regardless to what extent that actually looked like). 

The issue is in the contract. Bregman has a guaranteed year with an opt-out for 2026 and a player option for 2027, both at a $25 million price point. At this point in time, it seems clear that Bregman will, in fact, opt out and retest the market this winter in order to get more term on his deal. Should he come to Wrigley — which sits as the 18th-best park for right-handed hitters this year — and struggle, though, opting in would present certain challenges for a Cubs team that hopes to sign Kyle Tucker long-term. Boston is also only two games out of a wild card spot, too. So, we don't even know how compelled they'd be to trade a player like Bregman. 

All of this is to say that the Cubs could have just one viable option to acquire for their third base position: Arizona's Eugenio Suárez. 

By no measure are the Arizona Diamondbacks out of the postseason race at this point. While they sit 10 games back in the National League West, they're just four games out of a wild card spot. At the same time, though, taking stock of their actual chances could compel them to sell by month's end. They've lost their stop starter (Corbin Burnes) and their top two relievers (Justin Martinez & A.J. Puk) out of an already-shaky bullpen for the season. Corbin Carroll is on the Injured List with a fracture in his wrist, and Gabriel Moreno is with him due to a hand injury. Such injury volume will become increasingly difficult to overcome in one of the league's best divisions. 

Suárez is a free agent after this year and in the midst of doing what he's always done: playing solid defense and hitting for obscene amounts of power. If you're checking boxes, Suárez is probably the name we'll hear that hits the most, and he does so resoundingly. 

The 33-year-old is slashing .253/.323/.565 with 25 homers and a .312 ISO. He strikes out at a higher rate than you may like (25.6 percent) and doesn't walk as much as he used to (6.4 percent), but the impact there is significant. Only four players carry a higher ISO than Suárez does at this point, and two of their names are Aaron Judge & Shohei Ohtani. So, it's a worthy tradeoff. 

Defensively, Suárez is at a -3 Outs Above Average in 2025. That's a downgrade from what Shaw has provided since his return, but it's also not so bad that he can't easily compensate on the offensive side. And it's certainly better than what the team was getting in their other internal options while Shaw spent his time in Iowa. In short, you can live with it. Add in the fact that Suárez is a free agent after this year, which means that you're capitalizing on his bat and not dealing with a defensive issue long-term, and you've got the ideal trade candidate for the Cubs to land before the deadline. 

Again, this isn't about Matt Shaw not being a viable long-term option. This is about the Cubs fortifying their lineup for the only season in which they are currently guaranteed a certain level of success. We don't know what the 2026 season will look like. So adding in a player like Suárez, who boosts your lineup significantly on the power side while not impacting Shaw's long-term outlook, becomes a rather obvious move for the Cubs to make.

Of course, they won't be the only ones there either. Seattle needs some extra offense in their wild card race, specifically at third base. Detroit could use an infield bat. Even a fringe team like Cincinnati could be in the mix to bring in an old friend. Ultimately, it's not a slam dunk that the Cubs would get a player like Suárez even if they try. But the concept — in acquiring a steady bat at third base to play out the remainder of '25 and lift the floor of the collective — is sound.

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[KJTchoup]

I will be surprised if they don't do something.  Every other player on this roster has been held accountable for poor performance, some with very short leashes.  I know they really want him to be their guy, given they appear to have traded the wrong young third baseman, but he simply isn't ready yet.  Getting offensive production out of the third base position down the stretch will be a huge boost to the team

[Jason Ross]

33 minutes ago, KJTchoup said:

I will be surprised if they don't do something.  Every other player on this roster has been held accountable for poor performance, some with very short leashes.  I know they really want him to be their guy, given they appear to have traded the wrong young third baseman, but he simply isn't ready yet.  Getting offensive production out of the third base position down the stretch will be a huge boost to the team

Making any decision based on a few hundred PA's over "who the right third baseman" is or isn't is very premature. I would really caution people from dealing in such a discussion. Rookies take a long time. Based on their first 450 PA's, you'd have concluded Jordan Walker, not Pete Crow-Armstrong was the best young outfielder to come out of the 2020 draft. Today, Jordan Walker has been worth negative career fWAR while Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely among the most coveted young outfielders in the entire game. Things shift greatly with young players. 

Cam Smith hit a couple of cool home runs and he's had a better than I expected rookie season. Matt Shaw has had a bit of an up and down ride, he's working through learning, certainly. But there's a long way to go before either is the "right" or "wrong" player. It wouldn't be crazy or the most shocking outcome to re-evaluate this next year and see the two flipped. 

As is, I'm not entirely sure Matt Shaw needs to be replaced as heavily as others do. We have seen recently that young players just, take off. Internally we can look at PCA, Miguel Amaya and Michael Busch. Externally, players like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Holliday had to struggle for a few hundred PA's (or more) before they got it. He likely needs some competition behind him, but he's not been a blackhole offensively as much as people like to make him out to be. League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

[Outshined_One]

47 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

This is the crux of the issue with Shaw.  League-wide, 3B is basically a black hole, and the teams that have good 3Bs likely won't deal them.  In context, Shaw is basically a below average 3B, even though his offensive production has been decidedly bad.  The problem here is, it's not like you're gaining 4-5 WAR by replacing Shaw going forward.  You're instead likely to gain 1-2 WAR over the rest of the season, which isn't bad, but it raises the question of whether the Cubs would be better off dedicating those resources elsewhere in trades.

[KJTchoup]

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Making any decision based on a few hundred PA's over "who the right third baseman" is or isn't is very premature. I would really caution people from dealing in such a discussion. Rookies take a long time. Based on their first 450 PA's, you'd have concluded Jordan Walker, not Pete Crow-Armstrong was the best young outfielder to come out of the 2020 draft. Today, Jordan Walker has been worth negative career fWAR while Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely among the most coveted young outfielders in the entire game. Things shift greatly with young players. 

Cam Smith hit a couple of cool home runs and he's had a better than I expected rookie season. Matt Shaw has had a bit of an up and down ride, he's working through learning, certainly. But there's a long way to go before either is the "right" or "wrong" player. It wouldn't be crazy or the most shocking outcome to re-evaluate this next year and see the two flipped. 

As is, I'm not entirely sure Matt Shaw needs to be replaced as heavily as others do. We have seen recently that young players just, take off. Internally we can look at PCA, Miguel Amaya and Michael Busch. Externally, players like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Holliday had to struggle for a few hundred PA's (or more) before they got it. He likely needs some competition behind him, but he's not been a blackhole offensively as much as people like to make him out to be. League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

Making a decision?  I didn't suggest they release him, I would just advocate they get a major league hitter at the position for the duration of this season.  The only reason he still is in the lineup is he was a high draft pick.  If he was a twenty three year old that had little fanfare and had the lowest exit velocity in the majors leagues, in the bottom two percent of hard hit percentage, and was hitting .106 against four seam fastballs he would have been jettisoned out weeks ago

He may come around, I do not disagree, but there are thousands of minor leaguers itching for their opportunity.  Life is tough.  Baseball is tough.  When you get your shot, you better make it count or next guy up

Use Gage Workman as an example.  He killed it in camp but was pushed aside for Shaw once the season began.  When Shaw faltered early, Workman was given an opportunity to take the job from him and he failed.  Now he's back exiled in Detroit's farm system.  It was an incredibly small window of opportunity, but it's more than some get.  How big of a window do you want to give Shaw?  One season, two seasons?  Had to say, but I grow weary of the Shaw excuse machine that fans turn on.  But his defense?  Really?  He is below average in range metrics and arm strength.  He has shown nice hands, credit to him there, but he's not elite.  We could have kept Nicky Lopez in there to do the same thing

The last thing you wrote was "there is a decent shot hrs average".  Cubs are chasing a pennant.  They should be looking for more than mediocrity 

[Bertz]

Matt Shaw's played at a 1.9 WAR/600 pace since he was recalled, and his xwOBA indicates he's probably even been BABIPed a little during that time.

Like I wouldn't throw a tantrum if we traded for Geno Suarez but it's not the highest priority spot on the roster to address.  A less terrible version of Brujan (or ideally an outright good one like Willi Castro) that can get a LHH bat into the lineup and spell Shaw vs. especially tough righties is probably plenty.

[Jason Ross]

48 minutes ago, KJTchoup said:

Making a decision?

Your words were that the Cubs "appeared to have traded the wrong third baseman". That's teetering on a decision between Cam Smith and Matt Shaw, yes. My advocation was not to make these statements in their career arcs. I'm sorry, but MLB-instant-gratification with prospects is rarely a thing right now. And we have examples of that instant-gratification falling off as well. I didn't say anything about you suggesting a release, I was entirely discussing any Smith/Shaw comparisons. It's silly nonsense. 

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 If he was a twenty three year old

But he isn't. He's three months removed from being a top-30 (if not higher) prospect who has been 40% better than league average at Double-A and Triple-A in the last year. He's not only highly regarded, but highly successful. Context matters, my friend. 

Secondly, the "exit velocity" stuff is over played. Yes, the EV's aren't great, but I'm sorry, this is what you should expect from a profile of Matt Shaw. He's a high-swing, high-contact type. His EV's are going to be dropped based on the amount of stuff he shouldn't be able to hit. I'm as big of an Owen Caissie guy as there is, but part of his high EV is that when he doesn't get all of it, he gets none of it. When Shaw doesn't get all of it, he gets some of it far more often. I'd like to see more hard contact myself, and better swing choices, but what you haven't likely noticed; he's currently doing that more and more. His hard hit rate has jumped 1.5% since his recall, and over his last 28 swings his hard hit rate is 35.7% yet his wRC+ is 72. We are seeing progress literally right before our eyes but he's not necessarily being rewarded for the process improvement. 

Shaw is most certainly in a slump, but if we take the data back just 40 PA's ago, he was rocking an xWOBA of .342. Even xData liked the kid prior to a skid. Let's not act like Shaw is some horrible hitter. He's a rookie who's in the throws of making sweeping mechanical and approach based changes against the best pitching in the world. Add in that he won't be able to make these changes at Iowa (140 wRC+ hitters rarely need extra seasoning at Triple-A) and this is what you get. 

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Use Gage Workman as an example.

No, I'm sorry, I won't. Gage Workman is three years older, has never played Triple-A, Spring Training data is meaningless and he was so highly thought of that the Detroit Tigers let the world have him. Instead, let's use some other, young, very good prospects as an example:

Wyatt Langford (412 PA): 91 wC+
Riley Greene (418 PA): 98 wRC+
CJ Abram (302 PA): 72 wRC+
Andy Pages (181 PA): 98 wRC+

I'm not going to pull every young player, but other such as Geraldo Perdomo, Sal Frelick, and Jonathon Aranda are all figuring it out well into the hundreds of PA's as well. The point is that we shouldn't take Gage Workman as an example, his analogs and pedigrees are no where near Matt Shaw. Instead, we should take recent contemporaries in terms of age, production and ranking and see that even the best prospects are struggling for hundreds of PA's. 

Keep in mind as well, Kristian Campbell, one of the best prospects in all of baseball is rocking an 87 wRC+ and negative fWAR through 263 PA's. He was routinely graded as a top-10 prospect in the sport. This isn't unique to Shaw.

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But his defense?  Really?

Yes, his defense. Yes, really. First, the "arm strength" argument has kind of been debunked a handful of times. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal have all been + defenders at SS and 3b with the Cubs despite the argument about the arm strength. We can likely backburner that one. In fact, he's been better on balls to his right (taking him away from 1b) than to his left. 

In terms of OAA, he's sitting on a season -1 rating and a success rate of 68%. This is a 10% increase since his return (where he was at a 58%). There has been measurable defensive improvement for a player who's playing a new position (at least, new as a "primary" spot) before our eyes. Where the ceiling is defensively is kind of hard to gauge, but he's sitting 19th out of 35th in the league right now based on OAA alone and it's safe to assume that with more time (as we have seen) this will improve. 

DRS has Shaw as a +6 as well. Now, I like OAA in general more than DRS, but there's a pretty decent discrepancy between the two. It's worth noting that, especially when it comes to defensive metrics that, at their best, are wonky and require large samples.

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The last thing you wrote was "there is a decent shot hrs average".  Cubs are chasing a pennant.  They should be looking for more than mediocrity 

Yes. In 2025, Matt Shaw can get to be an average 3b. I'm sorry, all MLB teams have something average, somewhere. Event he Dodgers have a 96 wRC+ from SS, and a 70 wRC+ from LF on the year, and I think, on paper, we all agree they're the best team in baseball who is also chasing a pennant. While I do think the Cubs can upgrade at 3b, many things need to be factored in:
1. What is the cost of acquisition?
2. What is this going to improve? 

The Cubs more glaring omissions are with impact pitching. Upgrading a win or 1.5 wins over Shaw is likely a decent thing to do! But it's also probably expensive. If internally, Shaw is projected to be average, spending money elsewhere while going with more of a Luis Urias over a Suraez might behoove the team. 

Ultimately, however, people seem to have a belief that Shaw is just going to be able to go to Iowa and then poof return magically fixed. The Cubs shouldn't give up on him and the answer to "how long should they stick with him?" is likely in the hundreds more than they have. 

TLDR: Let's have some patience. Comparing him to Gage Workman is silly, the EV thing is a bit played out (and I don't thing representative), there's no answer on who's better Shaw or Smith and while the Cubs should bring in someone at 3b, it doesn't have to be Suarez.

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Instead, let's use some other, young, very good prospects as an example:

Wyatt Langford (412 PA): 91 wC+
Riley Greene (418 PA): 98 wRC+
CJ Abram (302 PA): 72 wRC+
Andy Pages (181 PA): 98 wRC+

Jackson Holliday maybe too? 208 PAs last year (Shaw is currently at 200) with a 62 wRC. This year he's at 104 wRC and underperforming his xwOBA by 24 points. 

To be fair, there are probably examples that go the other way. It's baseball, thousands have failed, thousands have succeeded. But he stands a reasonable chance of improving, and his baseline right now isn't fatal for the team success. 

Colin Rea, on the other hand, probably isn't going to suddenly improve. Horton and Brown and Boyd aren't going to magically generate a ton of stamina and long term arm strength that will make you comfortable about leaning on them for the next 4 months. I can't see a bullpen guy suddenly turning into a 12 K/9 monster. Sort those problems out first and see where you're at in a few weeks on the (very good) offensive side of things.

Edited July 1, 2025 by squally1313

[Jason Ross]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Jackson Holliday maybe too? 208 PAs last year (Show is currently at 200) with a 62 wRC. This year he's at 104 wRC and underperforming his xwOBA by 24 points. 

To be fair, there are probably examples that go the other way. It's baseball, thousands have failed, thousands have succeeded. But he stands a reasonable chance of improving, and his baseline right now isn't fatal for the team success. 

Colin Rea, on the other hand, probably isn't going to suddenly improve. Horton and Brown and Boyd aren't going to magically generate a ton of stamina and long term arm strength that will make you comfortable about leaning on them for the next 4 months. I can't see a bullpen guy suddenly turning into a 12 K/9 monster. Sort those problems out first and see where you're at in a few weeks on the (very good) offensive side of things.

Oh yeah! Holiday is another. Chourio is another. I had mentioned these two in the previous post so I ignored them here. Right now it's more likely for your teams' highly thought of prospect to suck for around 400 PA's than it is for them to be good for the first 400 PA's. We have seen some guys like James Wood crush it right away, but most suck and for extended time. CJ Abrams was horrible for almost 1,000 PAs. But the patience has paid off. 

And great analog to Colin Rea. You're right on those things. It's more likely that someone like Matt Shaw improves over the next three months than Rea does.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Matt Shaw's played at a 1.9 WAR/600 pace since he was recalled, and his xwOBA indicates he's probably even been BABIPed a little during that time.

*obnoxious throat clearing*

 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

I’d more than happy with Bregman. You have a platoon upgrade vs lefties and it’s no longer a guarantee the will get blanked vs any half way decent left handed pitcher. Busch and Bregman in the same lineup makes it a lot more potent and consistent with 1-9 production.

Even with a Mitch Keller they still have to score runs which has been a problem bi weekly. A right handed corner infielder would finally provide some consistency and you just hope the elite defe And bullpen can keep the runs in check.