While Matt Shaw's Bat Has Gotten Better By Numbers, His Glove Has Improved By Eye Test

An unfortunate reality of analyzing defense in baseball is that, sometimes, you have to rely on the eye test before anything else. This is especially true when examining a small sample, wherein the metrics either don't convey reality or lack the volume of context needed to become meaningful. Lucky for us, the eye test is all we need in declaring that Matt Shaw's defense looks quite good since his return to the Chicago Cubs from Iowa. 

We already know what Shaw has done with the bat; he's made some adjustments in positioning and to the leg kick to drive up his production. While we don't have the ability to pinpoint positioning or other factors that might be making a difference for him on the defensive side (especially as defensive metrics don't make room for splits at this point), we do have plenty of anecdotal evidence to support the idea.

The evidence was most recently on display on Sunday: 

Matt Shaw is putting on a clinic at third base ? pic.twitter.com/EJ8q4TqSid

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 1, 2025

For Shaw to not only field that ball with the hop he got but make a throw that reached Michael Busch on the fly speaks to the improvement being made in a short time. And while the pick on its own is impressive enough, it's hardly the only time he's flashed that type of, well, flash with the leather in even the past week(ish): 

It feels like there's a decent chance that the Cincinnati Reds are tired of seeing Matt Shaw play defense. While the degree of difficulty in fielding the baseball wasn't nearly as high as the one on Sunday, the strength to get that throw across while losing balance absolutely is hard to generate. 

If you remember, arm strength was something of a concern in Shaw's transition to third base. In 2024, MLB Pipeline's scouting report referred to his arm as "fringy" and a liability. The follow-up in 2025 was a bit more direct in referring to it as "below-average" and that it would be stretched at third base. Sure:

It's not that Shaw suddenly has arm strength that he didn't possess before, but he's developing the type of "strength" required to play the position by making an adjustment. There's an IQ thing taking shape here. Because even when Shaw doesn't uncork the throw, he's getting it over there in a rather savvy, efficient manner: 

That one felt intentional. You've got a catcher running, so there's no need to rush a throw that might get past Busch. Instead, you get it over there on the big hop and the rest takes care of itself. These are exactly the type of things you want to see from a player who was visibly struggling at the position upon his first taste of big-league action. 

While Outs Above Average isn't our preferred metric, it does, at least, give us the ability to examine the performance splits on a more specific level. In this case, monthly. Shaw's OAA in March and April (prior to his demotion) was -3. He had a success rate of just 58 percent, against a 63 percent estimated success rate. He particularly struggled moving to his left (-2) and back (-1). 

Since his return, however, Shaw has an OAA of 0, indicating that he's been exactly average. He's also exceeded the estimated success rate (75 percent success against 74 percent estimated). There's still some struggle to his left (-2 OAA), but he's average moving back, average to his right, and above-average moving in. These numbers, of course, aren't entirely reliable within a small sample (to say nothing of the fact that they don't tell us a lot about his arm), but they do at least allow us to put the improvement into some sort of concrete context. 

Ultimately, though, it's all about what you want to see. The eye test, the little bit of data available, looks good. There's confidence brewing here, on both sides of the ball. Even if he's never able to drum up elite production from a defensive standpoint, the stability he can provide at a position that has lacked it in that facet could be invaluable—to say nothing of what he's doing at the plate.