Trade Deadline 2025, Exploring The Cubs' Weaknesses: Third Base

I will be surprised if they don't do something.  Every other player on this roster has been held accountable for poor performance, some with very short leashes.  I know they really want him to be their guy, given they appear to have traded the wrong young third baseman, but he simply isn't ready yet.  Getting offensive production out of the third base position down the stretch will be a huge boost to the team

33 minutes ago, KJTchoup said:

I will be surprised if they don't do something.  Every other player on this roster has been held accountable for poor performance, some with very short leashes.  I know they really want him to be their guy, given they appear to have traded the wrong young third baseman, but he simply isn't ready yet.  Getting offensive production out of the third base position down the stretch will be a huge boost to the team

Making any decision based on a few hundred PA's over "who the right third baseman" is or isn't is very premature. I would really caution people from dealing in such a discussion. Rookies take a long time. Based on their first 450 PA's, you'd have concluded Jordan Walker, not Pete Crow-Armstrong was the best young outfielder to come out of the 2020 draft. Today, Jordan Walker has been worth negative career fWAR while Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely among the most coveted young outfielders in the entire game. Things shift greatly with young players. 

Cam Smith hit a couple of cool home runs and he's had a better than I expected rookie season. Matt Shaw has had a bit of an up and down ride, he's working through learning, certainly. But there's a long way to go before either is the "right" or "wrong" player. It wouldn't be crazy or the most shocking outcome to re-evaluate this next year and see the two flipped. 

As is, I'm not entirely sure Matt Shaw needs to be replaced as heavily as others do. We have seen recently that young players just, take off. Internally we can look at PCA, Miguel Amaya and Michael Busch. Externally, players like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Holliday had to struggle for a few hundred PA's (or more) before they got it. He likely needs some competition behind him, but he's not been a blackhole offensively as much as people like to make him out to be. League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

47 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

This is the crux of the issue with Shaw.  League-wide, 3B is basically a black hole, and the teams that have good 3Bs likely won't deal them.  In context, Shaw is basically a below average 3B, even though his offensive production has been decidedly bad.  The problem here is, it's not like you're gaining 4-5 WAR by replacing Shaw going forward.  You're instead likely to gain 1-2 WAR over the rest of the season, which isn't bad, but it raises the question of whether the Cubs would be better off dedicating those resources elsewhere in trades.

1 hour ago, Jason Ross said:

Making any decision based on a few hundred PA's over "who the right third baseman" is or isn't is very premature. I would really caution people from dealing in such a discussion. Rookies take a long time. Based on their first 450 PA's, you'd have concluded Jordan Walker, not Pete Crow-Armstrong was the best young outfielder to come out of the 2020 draft. Today, Jordan Walker has been worth negative career fWAR while Pete Crow-Armstrong is likely among the most coveted young outfielders in the entire game. Things shift greatly with young players. 

Cam Smith hit a couple of cool home runs and he's had a better than I expected rookie season. Matt Shaw has had a bit of an up and down ride, he's working through learning, certainly. But there's a long way to go before either is the "right" or "wrong" player. It wouldn't be crazy or the most shocking outcome to re-evaluate this next year and see the two flipped. 

As is, I'm not entirely sure Matt Shaw needs to be replaced as heavily as others do. We have seen recently that young players just, take off. Internally we can look at PCA, Miguel Amaya and Michael Busch. Externally, players like Wyatt Langford, Jackson Chourio, and Jackson Holliday had to struggle for a few hundred PA's (or more) before they got it. He likely needs some competition behind him, but he's not been a blackhole offensively as much as people like to make him out to be. League 3b are hitting at a 96 wRC+ clip and since his return, Shaw is at an 86 wRC+. But he's also been much better with the glove recently. So while he's below average offensively, it's not by leaps and bounds, and with some adjustment it's a pretty decent shot he's average or slightly better at some point.

Making a decision?  I didn't suggest they release him, I would just advocate they get a major league hitter at the position for the duration of this season.  The only reason he still is in the lineup is he was a high draft pick.  If he was a twenty three year old that had little fanfare and had the lowest exit velocity in the majors leagues, in the bottom two percent of hard hit percentage, and was hitting .106 against four seam fastballs he would have been jettisoned out weeks ago

He may come around, I do not disagree, but there are thousands of minor leaguers itching for their opportunity.  Life is tough.  Baseball is tough.  When you get your shot, you better make it count or next guy up

Use Gage Workman as an example.  He killed it in camp but was pushed aside for Shaw once the season began.  When Shaw faltered early, Workman was given an opportunity to take the job from him and he failed.  Now he's back exiled in Detroit's farm system.  It was an incredibly small window of opportunity, but it's more than some get.  How big of a window do you want to give Shaw?  One season, two seasons?  Had to say, but I grow weary of the Shaw excuse machine that fans turn on.  But his defense?  Really?  He is below average in range metrics and arm strength.  He has shown nice hands, credit to him there, but he's not elite.  We could have kept Nicky Lopez in there to do the same thing

The last thing you wrote was "there is a decent shot hrs average".  Cubs are chasing a pennant.  They should be looking for more than mediocrity 

Matt Shaw's played at a 1.9 WAR/600 pace since he was recalled, and his xwOBA indicates he's probably even been BABIPed a little during that time.

Like I wouldn't throw a tantrum if we traded for Geno Suarez but it's not the highest priority spot on the roster to address.  A less terrible version of Brujan (or ideally an outright good one like Willi Castro) that can get a LHH bat into the lineup and spell Shaw vs. especially tough righties is probably plenty.

48 minutes ago, KJTchoup said:

Making a decision?

Your words were that the Cubs "appeared to have traded the wrong third baseman". That's teetering on a decision between Cam Smith and Matt Shaw, yes. My advocation was not to make these statements in their career arcs. I'm sorry, but MLB-instant-gratification with prospects is rarely a thing right now. And we have examples of that instant-gratification falling off as well. I didn't say anything about you suggesting a release, I was entirely discussing any Smith/Shaw comparisons. It's silly nonsense. 

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 If he was a twenty three year old

But he isn't. He's three months removed from being a top-30 (if not higher) prospect who has been 40% better than league average at Double-A and Triple-A in the last year. He's not only highly regarded, but highly successful. Context matters, my friend. 

Secondly, the "exit velocity" stuff is over played. Yes, the EV's aren't great, but I'm sorry, this is what you should expect from a profile of Matt Shaw. He's a high-swing, high-contact type. His EV's are going to be dropped based on the amount of stuff he shouldn't be able to hit. I'm as big of an Owen Caissie guy as there is, but part of his high EV is that when he doesn't get all of it, he gets none of it. When Shaw doesn't get all of it, he gets some of it far more often. I'd like to see more hard contact myself, and better swing choices, but what you haven't likely noticed; he's currently doing that more and more. His hard hit rate has jumped 1.5% since his recall, and over his last 28 swings his hard hit rate is 35.7% yet his wRC+ is 72. We are seeing progress literally right before our eyes but he's not necessarily being rewarded for the process improvement. 

Shaw is most certainly in a slump, but if we take the data back just 40 PA's ago, he was rocking an xWOBA of .342. Even xData liked the kid prior to a skid. Let's not act like Shaw is some horrible hitter. He's a rookie who's in the throws of making sweeping mechanical and approach based changes against the best pitching in the world. Add in that he won't be able to make these changes at Iowa (140 wRC+ hitters rarely need extra seasoning at Triple-A) and this is what you get. 

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Use Gage Workman as an example.

No, I'm sorry, I won't. Gage Workman is three years older, has never played Triple-A, Spring Training data is meaningless and he was so highly thought of that the Detroit Tigers let the world have him. Instead, let's use some other, young, very good prospects as an example:

Wyatt Langford (412 PA): 91 wC+
Riley Greene (418 PA): 98 wRC+
CJ Abram (302 PA): 72 wRC+
Andy Pages (181 PA): 98 wRC+

I'm not going to pull every young player, but other such as Geraldo Perdomo, Sal Frelick, and Jonathon Aranda are all figuring it out well into the hundreds of PA's as well. The point is that we shouldn't take Gage Workman as an example, his analogs and pedigrees are no where near Matt Shaw. Instead, we should take recent contemporaries in terms of age, production and ranking and see that even the best prospects are struggling for hundreds of PA's. 

Keep in mind as well, Kristian Campbell, one of the best prospects in all of baseball is rocking an 87 wRC+ and negative fWAR through 263 PA's. He was routinely graded as a top-10 prospect in the sport. This isn't unique to Shaw.

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But his defense?  Really?

Yes, his defense. Yes, really. First, the "arm strength" argument has kind of been debunked a handful of times. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal have all been + defenders at SS and 3b with the Cubs despite the argument about the arm strength. We can likely backburner that one. In fact, he's been better on balls to his right (taking him away from 1b) than to his left. 

In terms of OAA, he's sitting on a season -1 rating and a success rate of 68%. This is a 10% increase since his return (where he was at a 58%). There has been measurable defensive improvement for a player who's playing a new position (at least, new as a "primary" spot) before our eyes. Where the ceiling is defensively is kind of hard to gauge, but he's sitting 19th out of 35th in the league right now based on OAA alone and it's safe to assume that with more time (as we have seen) this will improve. 

DRS has Shaw as a +6 as well. Now, I like OAA in general more than DRS, but there's a pretty decent discrepancy between the two. It's worth noting that, especially when it comes to defensive metrics that, at their best, are wonky and require large samples.

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The last thing you wrote was "there is a decent shot hrs average".  Cubs are chasing a pennant.  They should be looking for more than mediocrity 

Yes. In 2025, Matt Shaw can get to be an average 3b. I'm sorry, all MLB teams have something average, somewhere. Event he Dodgers have a 96 wRC+ from SS, and a 70 wRC+ from LF on the year, and I think, on paper, we all agree they're the best team in baseball who is also chasing a pennant. While I do think the Cubs can upgrade at 3b, many things need to be factored in:
1. What is the cost of acquisition?
2. What is this going to improve? 

The Cubs more glaring omissions are with impact pitching. Upgrading a win or 1.5 wins over Shaw is likely a decent thing to do! But it's also probably expensive. If internally, Shaw is projected to be average, spending money elsewhere while going with more of a Luis Urias over a Suraez might behoove the team. 

Ultimately, however, people seem to have a belief that Shaw is just going to be able to go to Iowa and then poof return magically fixed. The Cubs shouldn't give up on him and the answer to "how long should they stick with him?" is likely in the hundreds more than they have. 

TLDR: Let's have some patience. Comparing him to Gage Workman is silly, the EV thing is a bit played out (and I don't thing representative), there's no answer on who's better Shaw or Smith and while the Cubs should bring in someone at 3b, it doesn't have to be Suarez.

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Instead, let's use some other, young, very good prospects as an example:

Wyatt Langford (412 PA): 91 wC+
Riley Greene (418 PA): 98 wRC+
CJ Abram (302 PA): 72 wRC+
Andy Pages (181 PA): 98 wRC+

Jackson Holliday maybe too? 208 PAs last year (Shaw is currently at 200) with a 62 wRC. This year he's at 104 wRC and underperforming his xwOBA by 24 points. 

To be fair, there are probably examples that go the other way. It's baseball, thousands have failed, thousands have succeeded. But he stands a reasonable chance of improving, and his baseline right now isn't fatal for the team success. 

Colin Rea, on the other hand, probably isn't going to suddenly improve. Horton and Brown and Boyd aren't going to magically generate a ton of stamina and long term arm strength that will make you comfortable about leaning on them for the next 4 months. I can't see a bullpen guy suddenly turning into a 12 K/9 monster. Sort those problems out first and see where you're at in a few weeks on the (very good) offensive side of things.

Just now, squally1313 said:

Jackson Holliday maybe too? 208 PAs last year (Show is currently at 200) with a 62 wRC. This year he's at 104 wRC and underperforming his xwOBA by 24 points. 

To be fair, there are probably examples that go the other way. It's baseball, thousands have failed, thousands have succeeded. But he stands a reasonable chance of improving, and his baseline right now isn't fatal for the team success. 

Colin Rea, on the other hand, probably isn't going to suddenly improve. Horton and Brown and Boyd aren't going to magically generate a ton of stamina and long term arm strength that will make you comfortable about leaning on them for the next 4 months. I can't see a bullpen guy suddenly turning into a 12 K/9 monster. Sort those problems out first and see where you're at in a few weeks on the (very good) offensive side of things.

Oh yeah! Holiday is another. Chourio is another. I had mentioned these two in the previous post so I ignored them here. Right now it's more likely for your teams' highly thought of prospect to suck for around 400 PA's than it is for them to be good for the first 400 PA's. We have seen some guys like James Wood crush it right away, but most suck and for extended time. CJ Abrams was horrible for almost 1,000 PAs. But the patience has paid off. 

And great analog to Colin Rea. You're right on those things. It's more likely that someone like Matt Shaw improves over the next three months than Rea does.

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Matt Shaw's played at a 1.9 WAR/600 pace since he was recalled, and his xwOBA indicates he's probably even been BABIPed a little during that time.

*obnoxious throat clearing*

I’d more than happy with Bregman. You have a platoon upgrade vs lefties and it’s no longer a guarantee the will get blanked vs any half way decent left handed pitcher. Busch and Bregman in the same lineup makes it a lot more potent and consistent with 1-9 production.

Even with a Mitch Keller they still have to score runs which has been a problem bi weekly. A right handed corner infielder would finally provide some consistency and you just hope the elite defe And bullpen can keep the runs in check.