Felix Bautista

[muntjack]

The Orioles are about to fall to 15-29. They sport the worst run differential in the American League.  

Bautista underwent Tommy John and was out all of last season.  His velocity is still down a tick (99 to 97), but his savant page remains elite.   FA in '28.

What kind of package would it take, and would the Cubs pull the trigger?

[Tryptamine]

48 minutes ago, muntjack said:

The Orioles are about to fall to 15-29. They sport the worst run differential in the American League.  

Bautista underwent Tommy John and was out all of last season.  His velocity is still down a tick (99 to 97), but his savant page remains elite.   FA in '28.

What kind of package would it take, and would the Cubs pull the trigger?

Most likely something headlined by pitching, but if we're taking simply value based. You're probably talking a fairly big piece like Caissie as a headliner or like 2 guys in the 8-12 range.

[Bertz]

It usually costs less than you think.  Reason being that team control for relievers is heavily discounted due to the crazy level of attrition. 

The Jason Adam trade at last year's deadline is probably a good comp, though Bautista probably nets a bit more.  That trade was Dylan Lesko, a back of the 100 pitching prospect, plus two interesting lesser pieces.

I'd expect something like this:

- Pick 1 from our pre-arb SPs, excluding Brown/Horton

- Pick 1 from the Iowa relievers

- A teenage lottery ticket

So something like Assad, Neely, Lumpuy as an example.  This also presupposes that as he continues to knock off rust he starts pitching like an elite closer again.  Because to this point he's been more good than great.  Understandable coming off surgery but to return a premium like I laid out above he does need to get back to that level.

[Stratos]

Much to early for the Orioles to consider themselves sellers.

[Backtobanks]

11 hours ago, Bertz said:

It usually costs less than you think.  Reason being that team control for relievers is heavily discounted due to the crazy level of attrition. 

The Jason Adam trade at last year's deadline is probably a good comp, though Bautista probably nets a bit more.  That trade was Dylan Lesko, a back of the 100 pitching prospect, plus two interesting lesser pieces.

I'd expect something like this:

- Pick 1 from our pre-arb SPs, excluding Brown/Horton

- Pick 1 from the Iowa relievers

- A teenage lottery ticket

So something like Assad, Neely, Lumpuy as an example.  This also presupposes that as he continues to knock off rust he starts pitching like an elite closer again.  Because to this point he's been more good than great.  Understandable coming off surgery but to return a premium like I laid out above he does need to get back to that level.

While we at it, expand the deal and get Urias for 3B.

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Much to early for the Orioles to consider themselves sellers.

Is it though? They have been a complete failure this year. They are also in a division where they have to pass too many teams.  I don’t think they have to wait until the trade deadline to see this is not going to be their year. I would say it “might” be a LITTLE early, but not much too early. 

[squally1313]

Also get Eflin

[Tryptamine]

11 hours ago, Stratos said:

Much to early for the Orioles to consider themselves sellers.

Do the math. Last year you needed 86 wins to get into the AL playoffs. Currently the Orioles have 15, so they need 71 more wins. They have 118 games left to play. So just to get to 86 wins they're going to have to go 71-47 the rest of the way. That's .602 ball or 98 win pace the rest of the year. Is it impossible? Absolutely not, but they're one more bad week from making it all but a certainty.

[Derwood]

Typical front office overreaction. Hyde was good enough to get them to the postseason but is now the fall guy for an injury riddled season 

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Typical front office overreaction. Hyde was good enough to get them to the postseason but is now the fall guy for an injury riddled season 

It wasn't just injuries. That pitching staff was clearly not good going into the season and the GM all but admitted that saying he had hoped the young bats would progress and make up for it. Honestly it should have been the GM to get fired and not the coach, but that almost never happens.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Is it though? They have been a complete failure this year. They are also in a division where they have to pass too many teams.  I don’t think they have to wait until the trade deadline to see this is not going to be their year. I would say it “might” be a LITTLE early, but not much too early. 

There's just no advantage for the Orioles to bow out in May rather than waiting another month or 2.