Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 4-23-25

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (Central Time):

Iowa at Louisville, 10:05 am
Knoxville at Pensacola, 6:05 pm
South Bend vs. Beloit, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Kannapolis, 5:35 pm

Probable Starting Pitchers:

Iowa: RHP Cade Horton (12.1 IP, 1.46 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 18 K, 10 BB)
Knoxville: RHP Will Sanders (13.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 2.26 FIP, 11 K, 3 BB)
South Bend: RHP Luis Rujano (5.2 IP, 9.53 ERA, 9.51 FIP, 3 K, 9 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Will Frisch (4.2 IP, 9.64 ERA, 6.39 FIP, 6 K, 8 BB)

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Horton was filthy in the 4th, striking out the side. Matching Petty well so far. Scoreless in the 5th.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cade so far: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 67 pitches (41 strikes, 11 whiffs)

Averaging 96.5 mph on the FB, T98.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Cade so far: 4 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 67 pitches (41 strikes, 11 whiffs)

Averaging 96.5 mph on the FB, T98.

Whiff number is really good. I expect he'll be back for a fif

th. Should approach 80 pitches if that's the case.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[Jason Ross]

Here's something to note: Horton has thrown ten curveballs. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Pulling him at 75 pitches, 4.2. Wish they'd just let him try to get the next batter. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cade's final line: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 76 pitches (47 strikes, 12 whiffs)

[JBears79]

He's almost ready. I'd like to see him go 90 pitches before they call him up. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Cade's final line: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 76 pitches (47 strikes, 12 whiffs)

Purely based on RPM, he's on par with Dylan Cease's average spin both on slider and curveball. Cease is notoriously a "not a super consistent strike thrower" Essentially, Horton's ceiling feels like "What if Dylan Cease threw a lot of strikes and didn't walk guys?" 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Cowles and Alcantara both hit oppo outs to the warning track in the 7th. I thought Cowles' was gonna get out.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cristian hit a 423-foot homer.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Will Sanders survived the 4th inning this time after falling apart there last week:

5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Ivan Brethowr HR

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Ivan Brethowr HR

Was just coming to brag on it.

He leads the Southern League in OBP as well.

[Bertz]

Video

 

[Bertz]

good lord.  I am so all-in on him now it's not even funny

 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Will Sanders survived the 4th inning this time after falling apart there last week:

5 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 5 K

16 Ks against 3 walks on the season.  I'm not going to do the math on his groundball rate but it was north of 50% coming into the day and went up after this game.

Realistically we're probably talking about a back of the rotation ceiling without another gear on the fastball.  But definitely looks like a quality arm.

[craig]

Sanders had one bad inning, otherwise he's been pretty good.  There is promise in guys who throw strikes.  And I think all the pitch-lab stuff works best for guys who have some control.  Might also be that if he ever makes it, if he's a back-of-roster guy, maybe he'd throw a little harder in relief, too.  Anyway, I'm optimistic that maybe he's got some possibilities.  Very fun.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

16 Ks against 3 walks on the season.  I'm not going to do the math on his groundball rate but it was north of 50% coming into the day and went up after this game.

Realistically we're probably talking about a back of the rotation ceiling without another gear on the fastball.  But definitely looks like a quality arm.

He's working 93-94 (T96) this year and the cutter has really improved. Agreed that he needs a tick or two more on that FB to be more than a BOR guy.

[JBears79]

Man, Brethrowr wasnt even on my radar to start the season. 

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Man, Brethrowr wasnt even on my radar to start the season. 

When the Cubs gave him an invite to spring training I got pretty hyped. They wouldn't do that immediately after the draft unless they were really high on him. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Man, Brethrowr wasnt even on my radar to start the season. 

He wasn't on mine until February 24th, either. The moment I saw him hit his HR in ST using entirely new mechanics, I got very excited. I really like when I see prospects make changes and implement them quickly; it's a big green flag for coaching and learning. Very rarely is a prospect drafted and then needs to make no changes on their path forward. Being immediately coachable and receptive to new ideas is great to see. 

It also gives us a reason to believe the improvement in his raw data has a foundation and a source for that change. I really think there's a dude there. He's got a skill you can bank on (60 or better grade power). He's got the size you cannot teach. And he has a coachability aspect. We're now seeing far improved K-rates, a willingness to take what's given and he's cruising through High-A. I suspect more challenges will face him moving forward, but being coachable and receptive to new ideas means that he's got a tool in bag to deal with that adversity.

We'll see if it translates into creating an MLB player or what, but he's got a lot of the early indications you'd look for if you wanted to find a breakout prospect. On the NSBB community vote, I had him as, I believe (if my memory is serving me correctly) my 14th ranked prospect. While it'd be easy to say that's an overreaction to a few weeks of good results, it's due to everything I wrote here.