Cubs Video
If you've been following the Cubs during their opening week of Cactus League games, it's pretty likely you got to see Ivan Brethowr absolutely clobber a baseball 450 feet to deep left field. While that kind of result is really fun, it's probably important to very quickly remind everyone that spring training is little more than a glorified string of practice games, and that these things shouldn't really change a lot of our perceptions. At the same time, it was a little preview of some of the tantalizing upside that Brethowr has, and it's worth diving a little deeper into the prospect who's making himself quite noticeable in Mesa.
The first thing that immediately stands out with Brethowr is his size. He's listed at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, so he cuts an imposing figure for a pitcher to have to face. He's a massive human being to begin with, then you add in a baseball bat? Yeah, there's a bit of an intimidation factor. Many across social media platforms have been quick to compare him to Aaron Judge, though that's almost assuredly unfair. While there's a pretty massive frame on the seventh-round pick, he's shown enough athleticism in his college days to have swiped 14 bags, so while he's not going to threaten often, there's enough to make you believe he's capable of moving decently.
As with anyone with this imposing stature, there are both positives and negatives. On one hand, Brethowr looks like he can murder baseballs, and he can—but 6-foot-6 bodies can be used against you, as there's just more human skeleton to control. What this means for prospects like Brethowr are that swings can get long and be less twitchy, and pitchers can use the inside part of the plate (where it's harder to clear your hands) against you. Already, Brethowr has (at times) struggled to make enough contact with the baseball to use his power and his frame; this will be something to monitor going forward.
If there's good news in terms of his contact ability, it's that the slugger showed an ability to work on making more contact through his time in college. From his sophomore to junior year, he was able to lower his strikeout rate from 26.7% to 18.3%.. Even better, the reduction in strikeout rate did not come with a reduction of power, as his ISO and SLG went up, as well. He did struggle in his initial run with the Cubs' Low-A affiliate, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans, striking out 27% of the time and not really hitting much, but the hope is that it's a small sample in a very difficult-to-hit league, and that maybe these things iron themselves out through development.
A reason to be optimistic; I'm pretty sure the Cubs have already tweaked Brethowr's swing since the end of the season. Looking back at his time in Santa Barbara, his back shoulder was kept in a more relaxed, less fixed position: you could call it "loose". As he swung, back then, his hands loaded backward and stayed low to create an angle of attack to send the ball into the air. You can see the hand placement, the elbow, and the hand load on this homerun he hit in May.
Compare this to Brethowr this spring. It's a bit hard to see, as we're at the mercy of spring training's more austere selection of cameras, so we're looking straight on, but Brethowr's back shoulder is clearly in a more fixed and higher position. I would imagine, as well, that his hands may be pulled back a bit to help shorten his swing and/or make quicker decisions. There does not seem to be the same hand loading, and his hands seem to stay in place more. This is a good thing. It'll create a natural "rubber band" effect, and let him use his size and leverage to power the baseball—as opposed to forcing extra movement into the swing. With his size, he's got plenty of muscle already. One of the things that ESPN Pipeline brought up in his draft profile was that he had "a slow trigger," but he could be unlocked with "swing adjustments". I think we're seeing the Cubs attempt to make those. At least in this instance, it resulted in a 450-foot home run that had an exit velocity just shy of 109 mph. Compare his swing here to the previous video.
What should we make of this? As fun as his home run was, it's an uphill battle for the outfielder. Brethowr struggled in Myrtle Beach, and he must show that he can handle A-ball pitching before we dream about him hitting windows across the street from Wrigley Field.
Despite that, this is my favorite kind of seventh-round pick. There's at least one skill you can bank on being top-of-the-scale (in this case, the power), with enough other skills and potential tweaks that it could all come together in a beautiful storm. A realistic and successful 2025 season probably has the slugger ending in Tennessee, with strikeout rates in the low-20s, and flashing that 70-grade raw power plenty. An unsuccessful season probably sees him struggle to make enough contact in Myrtle Beach or South Bend for the entire season. Perhaps those subtle swing tweaks will be the difference needed in turning a mid-round pick into something very fun down the road, and unlocking that perfect storm outcome.
What do you think of Ivan Brethowr? Do you think he can unlock his potential? Did you notice the subtle mechanical tweaks? Let us know in the comments below!
Interested in learning more about the Chicago Cubs' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
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