Don't Freak Out About Pete Crow-Armstrong's Slow Start at the Plate

[Mitch Widmeier]

The Cubs are back to .500, but their fortunes this year will hinge (at least in some significant part) on the performance of their young hitters. So far, there are yellow flags around their most pivotal one—but there remains cause for hope.

Image courtesy of © Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Chicago ambushed Athletics pitching on Monday night to the tune of 18 runs, and then posted another 7 tallies in Tuesday's victory. Everyone got involved in the act. Reserve catcher Carson Kelly decided it was as good a night as any to hit for the cycle. Dansby Swanson looks revived at the plate, and Kyle Tucker now has homers in four straight games. Elsewhere in the lineup, though, there are real struggles happening.

Pete Crow-Armstrong hasn't popped yet at the plate but, the numbers suggest it's only a matter of time. It's a small sample size of eight games and 34 plate appearances so far for Crow-Armstrong, but the dazzling young Cub has a dreadful slash line of .161/.235/.226.

Nobody will sound the alarms after such a short time, but those ugly numbers may raise eyebrows for some. They shouldn't. Taking a deeper look into the numbers tells the real story.

According to Baseball Savant, Crow-Armstrong is in the 76th percentile in exit velocity and the 75th percentile in bat speed. Meanwhile, with strikeouts being one source of major concern for some within his profile, he's only slightly on the wrong side of average in whiff and strikeout rates.

Again, the sample size is small, but the athletic young hitter is smacking the ball around with a fluid swing and hitting into some bad luck early on. That should change.

Crow-Armstrong didn't enter this season with huge expectations from the Cubs, to be the torch-bearer for the lineup or some sort of savior. In an ideal world, his bat will improve over time and profile nearer the top of the batting order. That hope is to be exercised over time, though, with Chicago having plenty of patience for its young center fielder. He doesn't need to be an offensive star in 2025. He just has to hang in there.

That's because most of Crow-Armstrong's value doesn't come from his bat, anyway. Going right back to Baseball Savant, he's in the 98th percentile in Fielding Run Value and the 96th percentile in Sprint Speed. There's no need to embellish it. This is one of the fastest players in the game.

As for the glove? The arm? Crow-Armstrong is in the 95th percentile in Range, and 91st in Arm Value. That was on full display on Saturday in the desert, when he launched a frozen rope to third to nail Josh Naylor before he reached the bag. He threw out another runner (at the plate, this time) Sunday, and that play also required a subtle but very impressive job of charging hard and releasing the ball quickly on a single.

The defense, the arm, the speed. It all allows patience to be practiced while Crow-Armstrong gets more comfortable at the dish. There will be struggles; even the best go through the wringer. The early returns in 2025, though, speak to a guy connecting well and hitting it right where the defense is more than anything else.

Crow-Armstrong recognizes the situation, and spoke about it back in late March when asked about becoming a leadoff hitter somewhere down the road.

“Ultimately that’s where I want to end up,” Crow-Armstrong said. “But that’s [Ian Happ]’s job, and he does it exceptionally well. I don’t actively want to lead off. I want to keep doing what works, and I thought last year, switching Ian into the leadoff hole that second half changed things around for everybody.”

Let's keep in mind that the sophomore is only 23 years old. Most young players are pressing in some form or fashion to prove their worth. His farsighted mindset aligns with how the Cubs are handling it. For now, he's perfectly fine letting other areas of his game do the talking.

“I think I’ll get to the point in my career where the offense is expected of me,” Crow-Armstrong said. “But until that’s a real thing, the goal is playing Gold Glove defense every day. It’s not about the Gold Glove at the end of the year. If I get there, I get there."

Crow-Armstrong is in a great spot. He's not a young player who relies on his bat and his bat only. Those players can get fidgety early on if there are struggles at the plate. The Cubs' young dynamo, however, knows his glove and his speed are just as valuable for this Cubs team this year. If the bat comes along as expected, great. The numbers suggest it's possible, at least.

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[Bertz]

Pete has been getting under the ball early on here, but I'm pretty happy with him at the plate overall.  The hard hit rate is up (backed by a huge jump in bat speed), the chase is down a smidge, the in zone contact rate is up, the pull rate is up.

While he's hardly Kyle Tucker in terms of swing decisions, it feels like he's improving in that regard.  Unless the pop-ups are inherent to the change in swing decisions and bat speed (which I wouldn't think?) I see more good than bad from his early season performance.

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Pete has been getting under the ball early on here, but I'm pretty happy with him at the plate overall.  The hard hit rate is up (backed by a huge jump in bat speed), the chase is down a smidge, the in zone contact rate is up, the pull rate is up.

While he's hardly Kyle Tucker in terms of swing decisions, it feels like he's improving in that regard.  Unless the pop-ups are inherent to the change in swing decisions and bat speed (which I wouldn't think?) I see more good than bad from his early season performance.

Yeah, even without seeing the data, the swing decisions being much better are obvious.  He's waaaaaay less aggressive right now than he was even in the spring.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I'm with Bertz, his angle has been too steep and he's popping up crushable pitches. The crazy part is that we were under the assumption he had passable if not below average bat speed and that it might hold back his offensive ceiling, and the EV was a little worrisome, but now knowing that he's added so much in that department, I am doubling down on PCA devloping into a well-above-average bat in time. He is clearly frustrated though and I hope his emotions don't get the best of him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Setting aside Tokyo, PCA has a K rate under 20% and a BB rate above 10, and it's nigh impossible for me to be worried about him at the plate while those things are true.

[Jason Ross]

Yep. Me and Mitch talked about this on the NSBB pod last evening. I'm a process > result kind of guy as process usually helps inform the future. PCA's process looks pretty solid right now, despite the lack of results. He's just getting under things a bit. Iron that out and you'll be at the cross-section of the two. 

[jersey cubs fan]

Your don’t freak out about PCA’s hitting t-shirt is making me freak out about PCA.