Mitch Widmeier

Cade Horton continues to dazzle on the bump for the Cubs. Is Kyle Tucker waking up? The schedule remains light for Chicago moving ahead. Can they capitalize? Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images Sandwiched between wins on Friday and Sunday against the Los Angeles Angels was another dazzling outing from Chicago Cubs rookie starting pitcher Cade Horton. Pitching on regular rest after leaving his last outing with a blister, Horton shoved, to the tune of six scoreless innings. He allowed just three hits and registered seven strikeouts. On Monday morning, Horton became the favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year Award, according to DraftKings. He's earned that spot in the driver's seat. Of all pitchers who have logged at least 30 innings since July 1, nobody in baseball has a lower ERA than Horton (1.11). For the season, Horton has a brilliant 2.88 ERA. In his last seven starts (dating back to July 20), Horton has allowed just two total runs. That includes outings against a then-scorching Boston lineup, a red-hot Milwaukee offense and a Toronto lineup led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. None of it has fazed the Cubs rookie. To slap some perspective on how good that stretch is, per Marquee Sports Network, Horton's two runs surrendered in a seven-start span is the fewest in Cubs history, dating back to 1901. Who remembers the poetry in motion that was Jake Arrieta's 2015 campaign? A Cy Young Award. A no-hitter in Los Angeles, against the Dodgers. That complete game mastery over the Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. Via Wrigley Wire, in that historic 2015 season, Arrieta had a 1.43 ERA with 25.4% strikeout rate in his first seven starts after the All-Star break. Horton, in his first seven since the Midsummer Classic, has a 0.49 ERA, with a 24.8% strikeout rate. He's given off some of that Arrieta swagger we all remember seeing every fifth day. That process has worked wonders for Horton. It's great, too, to hear his intense dedication to improvement and to sustaining this newfound excellence. Top prospects don't always work out. It's never a sure thing. The sample size is small with Horton, but it screams of a guy who's figuring it out. It would be fairly surprising to see him not slot in at the top of the rotation in the years to come for Chicago. Horton's stuff is that good. His moxie is that contagious. The Cubs found a gem. Now, let's pivot to the part that could burn the Cubs. If Horton finishes first or second in Rookie of the Year voting, he will be credited with a full year of service time. The same applies for Matt Shaw, who's currently fourth in the odds on DraftKings. On top of that (and just to pile on, because why wouldn't it?), if Horton wins the award, the Cubs would NOT receive a draft pick through the Prospect Promotion Incentive that was implemented in 2022, because Horton hasn't been up for a full service year. So, if he wins the award or finishes second, boom: Horton's free agency would move up from (most likely) the end of the 2031 season to that of 2030. However, no draft pick would be awarded to the Cubs, because they didn't call him up proactively. The Cubs don't need to worry about that, of course. In fact, they should welcome it. They didn't manipulate his service time. If anything, they called him up sooner than they'd wished to, after Shota Imanaga became the third key member of their projected rotation to go down with an injury by the sixth week of the season. The circumstances were beyond their control, and if Horton does finish off an award-worthy rookie campaign, he'll be worth plenty to the team to make the small extra pain of an earlier bump in his pay palatable. Nor should Cubs fans sweat that rule. The Cubs didn't do anything to pursue the incentive, so not getting the draft pick is fair. If Horton does earn the Rookie of the Year, it'll be because he helped captain the team's rotation down the stretch and into October. Well worth it, and besides, this front office could use a nudge to act on a young player's contract status sooner, now and then. Next stop, a postseason start? Time will tell if that comes to fruition. For now, Horton will continue to go out every fifth day and try to mow down one lineup after another, while having his workload scaled back by the Cubs. That delicate balance is more important than whether or not hardware awaits him in November. View full article

Some of the critical pieces of the lineup for Craig Counsell have been slumping. Who is the most concerning of the bunch and the least concerning? Is the rotation sustainable for a postseason run? Let’s talk Matt Shaw! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article

Michael Soroka landed on the IL with a shoulder injury after just two innings with the Cubs. How worried should everyone be? Reaction to the trade deadline and what Jed Hoyer did and didn’t do. What’s going on with Kyle Tucker? Let’s take a look at the playoff picture! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article

Is Ian Happ a victim of bad luck at the plate this year, or are there deeper issues going on? Is Cade Horton figuring it out? Plenty of Cubs trade deadline talk too! Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article

Craig Counsell has made a switch at the top of the lineup. What do we think about it? Ben Brown struggled again but what do the numbers say? The division race between Chicago and Milwaukee is just heating up. Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article

Image courtesy of © Matt Marton-Imagn Images The Chicago Cubs faced their gauntlet right out of the gates this season. In the first month, Craig Counsell's club faced the Los Angeles Dodgers seven times, San Diego six times, Philadelphia three times and the Diamondbacks (a bit less formidable now than they seemed then) seven times. Even in early May, the Cubs began the month by facing Milwaukee, San Francisco, and the New York Mets. All three look like playoff teams. Out of the All-Star break, things will change for the Cubs. After boasting a 57-39 record at the break, they're in prime position to capitalize. Per Tankathon, the Cubs are tied with the Houston Astros for the second-easiest remaining schedule in all of baseball. Chicago's remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .482. Among the opponents that drove the number down are dates the Cubs still have with Colorado, the White Sox, Baltimore, Washington and 12 combined games left with Pittsburgh and Atlanta. On the flip side of that, the Cubs still have a collective 14 tilts against Milwaukee and St. Louis. However, eight of those 14 will be at Wrigley Field. Those 14 games against the Brewers and Cardinals (and more specifically, the eight against Milwaukee) could very well settle the division. The Cubs have the third-best record in baseball at the break, but are still only a game up on the Brewers. Milwaukee finished the first half on a tear, winning seven in a row—including a sweep of the Dodgers. Despite the slim lead, though, FanGraphs gives the Cubs a whopping 63.5% chance to win the National League Central. Why such favorable odds? While the Cubs have the second-easiest schedule left, the Brewers are tied with Baltimore for the fourth-hardest remaining schedule. Milwaukee still has series left against the Dodgers, Phillies and Padres. All three have shown to be heavy hitters in the National League, and the Cubs have wrapped up all games against those three. The eight games against the Cubs also shoots Milwaukee up the ladder in strength of schedule. All of that leads to FanGraphs giving the Cubs a commanding advantage in predicting who will win the division. If you don't want to consider one outlet to serve as the be-all and end-all, look at Baseball Reference. That site gives the Cubs a 70% chance to win the division opposed to just a 28% shot for the Brewers, though in that case, it's much less about strength of schedule and more about their assessed team strength. By the reckoning of Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS), the Cubs are the best team in baseball (1.2), so although the average quality of their remaining opponents (-0.1) is just 10th-worst in the league, they project to win the most games in the second half. Just keep in mind that (unlike FanGraphs's system) those aren't based on close assessments of each team's player-by-player individual talent, but rather on how they've each played over the last 100 games at a team level. It's flipping forward the Cubs' excellent first half less skeptically than other models would. So which club could the Cubs face, if they make the postseason? Winning the division or falling short of that crown will determine that. If the playoffs started today, the Cubs and Dodgers would receive first-round byes. It would catapult Chicago directly to the National League Divisional Series. However, the margins are razor-thin. Just like the Cubs only have a one-game lead over Milwaukee, they are also only a half game behind the Dodgers for the top spot in the National League. Winning the division and holding off whoever wins the National League East would assure the Cubs of a bye in the playoffs. Get jumped by Milwaukee and snag a Wild Card spot (or struggle enough to let the Phillies or Mets run by) and the bye evaporates. Back to the current moment. Chicago would have the No. 2 seed in the National League if the postseason began right now, and it would face the winner of a series between the Phillies and the Padres. A lot can change between now and the end of September, but FanGraphs gives the Cubs a 94% chance to make the playoffs and a 40.3% shot to earn a bye. Getting that extra rest to set up your rotation is always cherished. A weaker remaining schedule, blended with the vast majority of reports stating the Cubs will be big players at the trade deadline, puts them in the driver's seat to win the division. Eight games against the Brewers will carry a lot of weight, though, and an unorthodox five-game series in the middle of August will speak volumes as to who carries the torch in the division. Thanks to a rainout earlier in the season, the two will play five at Wrigley in four days, including a doubleheader to begin the series on August 18. Regardless of how you believe the final chapter of this Cubs season will be written, 57-39 at the break and leading the division is something everyone would've signed up for back in March. Of all the numbers and all the percentages that can be digested, there's one that sticks out. According to Baseball Reference, the Cubs right now have the highest odds to win the World Series at 15.8%. Right behind the Cubs are the Detroit Tigers, at 13.3%. Wouldn't that be something? View full article

After a tremendous first half, Matthew Boyd has been named an All-Star for the first time! Boyd makes it three Cubs selected, but were Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch snubbed? How good is Daniel Palencia? Listen on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-north-side-baseball-podcast/id1798599313 Listen on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75wMGhBwlrDDYPt3kaF453 Listen on iHeartRadio: https://www.iheart.com/podcast/263-the-north-side-baseball-po-268998437/ Listen on Pocket Casts: https://pca.st/eey7h6ih Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@northsidebaseball View full article