Cubs (Steele) vs Oakland (Severino): 4/1/25, 9:05pm

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, musclemom said:

Anyone else worried about Steele, yes it's early, but...

No. It's April 2nd. In any normal year, he'd have made just two starts at this point. I know the control hasn't looked good, but stuff wise he's been fine. Slider hasn't lost spin, the fastball hasn't lost velocity. It's more than likely a mechanical issue/tweak/conditioning/rust or some combination of the four that is resulting in this. So I'm not worried. I'd like to see it fixed, surely, but he's been too good, too long for this to be a concern currently. 

On the left is his slide concentration this year. Notice how much more concentrated his slider is on the right (down and away from RHP) versus the left?. Shockingly, leaving the ball up is not working. Fix that, Stelee will be fine. That's quite fixable and points to it being a combination of the things I suggested.

If the velocity dips, or if he's still struggling for command in June we can worry. 

[squally1313]

7 hours ago, Hot Sauce said:

I have more faith in Hodge than Pressly and I won't be surprised if they swap roles before the end of the season.

We needed to get the 6 outs either way, the As has 3-4-5 coming up in the 8th. While I'm not totally convinced Hodge is a definitive better option than Pressly at any given point, I'm fine flexing Porter into the spots against the better hitters, especially if it comes with the potential benefit of keeping Pressly happy with the promises that were made to him in the offseason. 

[Bertz]

Steele's velo is down and he's unable to miss bats in the zone.  Those are bright red flags when the sample gets a little larger.

The dongs don't concern me though.  Dongs are fickle in small samples.  Steele's xFIP is 3.78, which is lower than his standard but still quality.  

I'm fairly worried that he's sliding from a top of the rotation type to a middle of the rotation one, but I'm not worried that he's full out bad now.

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Steele's velo is down and he's unable to miss bats in the zone.  Those are bright red flags when the sample gets a little larger.

The dongs don't concern me though.  Dongs are fickle in small samples.  Steele's xFIP is 3.78, which is lower than his standard but still quality.  

I'm fairly worried that he's sliding from a top of the rotation type to a middle of the rotation one, but I'm not worried that he's full out bad now.

On Steele's fastball velocity, I think his "new normal" seems to be flashing 92-93, but averaging something around 91 (ish).  Using year-to-year it is down, but he's been in this range of ~91mph (ish) for a bit dating back to last year. Since August of last year here are his average FB velocities per game: 91.4, 92, 91.9, 91.5, 91.2, 91.2, 91.4, 90.4, 90.9, 91.7, 91. 

*His 91.9 mph game came in a two-inning appearance against Toronto so it would be safe to say that fatigue didn't set in, as well, this is one of only two games in which he averaged over 91.5mph post-August last year and only three times including 2025 (his 91.7mph game against Arizona)

Velocity was his lowest this year in Tokyo, which due to illness and being mid-March is pretty explainable. His velo against Arizona was on the high end of that sample size, and then back down on a kind of chilly night in Sacramento. So while it's probably not a great sign, I do think he's got a good excuse for one of those starts and another, he had a pretty good average velocity. 

The good news is that through that span in August and September last year, the fastball velocity sitting even in the low 91 decimals doesn't seem to be a massive issue for him. Here is that span compared to his season total:

2.16 ERA, 3.02 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, 10% HR/FB%, 27.,8% o-swing, 74.5% contact, 27.2K% (Aug - End)
3.35 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 3.62 xFIP, 8.7% HR/FB%, 27.7 o-swing%, 79.1 contact%, 24.3 K% (full-2024) 

If we want to be super fair though, Steele didn't have a massively rough run of opponents during that span, seeing the Cardinals, White Sox, Blue Jays (only two innings), Tigers, Pirates, A's and Phillies. So probably fair to attribute some of that to that, as well.

I really think he just needs to dial in the control/command. All druthers, I'd rather he be pumping 92mph more often, but I think the <91.5mph Justin Steele can be pretty effective as seen at the end of last year.

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Luzardo is throwing harder than ever in the early-going. He has hit 97 several times and looks to be over his 2024 health issues. Could be a pretty regretful miss, even if it would have put 4 lefties in the rotation.

[gflore34]

Think Steele’ command improved over the last three innings.  Resulting in more K’s and GB’s, an encouraging sign?

[gflore34]

Watching Quick Pitch they’re all over De La Cruz for NL MVP sorry, he’s not even the best player in Central.

[We Got The Whole 9]

23 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^ Even before we demanded a cap and NFL but baseball era it was a tough sell that not trading for a TJ’d SP was regrettable. Now? Good on the Phillies, but bring on Gilbert or Kirby. 

Singer looks like he may be working out some kinks with the Reds and be a pretty good FA (as those go during 2.0, still very cheap) in a couple years 

It wouldn't surprise me if they extend him mid-season if he sustains even MORP success 

[JHBulls]

22 hours ago, Stratos said:

Max Muncy throws like my grandma.

It must be a Max Muncy thing, because the Dodgers versions throwing is currently sucking. Like, badly…

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yep! Hopefully we'll get some reprieve until July when the Cubs will trade a few other prospects at the deadline and we'll get to read about how Drew Gray (whom I still like as a prospect) is going to be the next Clayton Kershaw because he has two good starts with the Angels in Triple-A.

I'm looking forward to the Cubs trading away more of its top prospects for a rental in the stretch run because the owner was too cheap to OK signing enough talent in the offseason.