2025 Cubs Minor League Preview: Breakout Prospects

[Jason Ross]

With the regular season ramping up with the Tokyo series, the end of Spring Training will be quickly upon us. Which Cubs prospects might break out once they return to the minors? Who might disappoint? Who should you spend your time watching?

Image courtesy of Jordan Bastian/MLB.com

Baseball season is literally right around the corner, and if you've been focused mostly on the Chicago Cubs 26-man roster, their camp cuts, and who makes it with the team until Opening Day stateside, I wouldn't blame you — this is arguably the most exciting Cubs team since 2018. With that said, the Cubs will have a pretty exciting minor league system in 2025 (as they've had over the last few years) and one that is worth monitoring as the season goes along. There is a lot of talent close to "the Show", but some intriguing prospects who are bubbling just below the surface. Over the next few days here at NSBB, we're going to take a look at some of the players who might break out, players who you might see in Chicago in 2025, and where, on those day-offs for the big league squad, you should spend your time paying attention to. 

For today, we're going to look at players in 2025 who might be just a little off the radar (i.e., just outside of the top-10 or 20 in the system) or new to the organization who might break out. 

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Honorable Mentions: 
The reality of prospecting baseball players is you can essentially put anyone you want into this spot. Do you have a favorite under-20-year old hitter? Well, he probably fits this category, regardless of who that is. This could be a few of our more recent IFA signings, such as Derniche Valdez, Fernando Cruz, or Angel Cepeda, all of whom have some sort of combination of interesting tools that they just haven't fully put together yet. Any one of those players could find the magic and rocket up the rankings this season. It could also be a few of our more recent prep-picks, such recent mid-round selections like Ronny Cruz or Ty Southisene . This is a category ripe with names.

Maybe you're more of a gambler (remember, folks, there's no such thing as a "true" pitching prospect), and you favor some of our young pitchers who have tantalizing stuff. Daniel Avitia and Brooks Caple, both of the 2024 draft, could knock down a door or two and find themselves a top-15 prospect by seasons end. There's a bevy of IFA names that could jump this list, as well. IFA pitchers have a tendency to manifest themselves out of thin air — suddenly, a kid who got a signing bonus in the low-thousands is pumping 98mph. 

I could really list something like 30 names here, especially with how the system is currently set up. The Cubs are top-heavy in the sense that most of their best prospects project to either start in Iowa or end in Iowa in 2025, and their lower levels are all fairly foggy. 

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Breakout Prospect #1 - Cole Mathis, 1B/3B/DH
Cole Mathis is someone who I think is going to have a really good 2025 season and someone who offers really fun upside if he can stick at third (which I'll get back to in a moment). The 54th selection out of the College of Charleston has a lot of positives in his game that would suggest he should hit the ground running. Mathis absolutely crushed the Cape Cod league, hitting 11 home runs, and had an OPS north of 1.000 during his stay, which clearly proves that the change from metal to wood bats will not sap this man's power.

Beyond just the eye popping power numbers, per Greg Zumach, Mathis had an 84% contact rate with just a 16% chase rate. This is a hitter who has a strong sense of the zone, a strong approach, and big power. There's little not to like in the bat and these things go a long way in dispelling any fears that he spent his college career in a smaller conference. 

Perhaps the most interesting thing with Mathis is that the Cubs announced him as a third baseman when he was selected. Very quickly, however, their second-round selection went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Obviously, the Cubs knew of this on draft-day, so they still believe, despite the surgery, that Mathis can handle third in the interim. I don't think the former Cougar standout is going to play third for a while, but he's been swinging since January, has been getting some work in the field and throwing in the MiLB camp, and I would expect him to get some time there around mid-season. 

So taking it all in, we've got a Statcast darling who's already proven he can swing wood bats against the best college can offer, and who has a path beyond being just a first baseman (though we'll see if he can stick at third long-term). I'm not sure if Mathis is going to start in Myrtle Beach or South Bend, but either level should be a level he's capable of putting up some fun numbers at if the Cape Cod production is any sort of a preview. If he can show the arm is healthy by the end of the year, that he's capable of handling third, and the bat plays against older pitchers, then there's a real chance we're looking at a top-five prospect in the system (with all of the likely graduations) by year's end. 

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Breakout Prospect #2 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
Cristian Hernandez entered 2024 as somewhat of an afterthought. The shortstop really struggled in his first 430 appearances in Myrtle Beach. While we can expect young players to struggle, the former IFA-darling had a sub-80 wRC+, showed weak barrel control and just looked a bit out of his element. It was fair to wonder if Hernandez was going to figure it out. It was clear pretty quickly last year that there had been a lot of work put in during the offseason. Displaying new mechanics, Hernandez was able to make far more contact, lowering his K% by nearly five points, doubling his ISO, and posting a pretty impressive 135 wRC+. It earned him a promotion to South Bend by the end of the season.

Everything wasn't perfect, however, as the transition to a new level was once again a bit of a struggle for the young shortstop. He continued to make a lot of contact, but the contact quality was not up to snuff — there was a visible lack of punch during his 23 games in High-A, as he logged just three extra-base hits, none of which were home runs. That's okay — it's a small sample size, but it is something to note. 

I'm not sure we're ever going to see the monster-breakout that turns Hernandez into the "Mini-A-Rod" he was once called as a 16-year-old, but that doesn't mean he can't have a good 2025 campaign. Hernandez has good size and he's going to keep filling out. If he can parlay his new-found contact ability into some more power, then there's still a good contact-power-defense skillset for the Cubs prospect. The organization doesn't have a lot of prospects who are obvious star-level talents below Iowa currently, so he will be given a lot of runway. A Hernandez who swats 12-15 home runs annually could make a pretty significant jump up the boards still. 

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Breakout Prospect #3 - Erian Rodriguez, SP
This is a bit more of a "dart throw", but this is the kind of profile I'm willing to throw a dart on. Rodriguez is 22 years old, so he's not the youngest of prospects (not that he's "old"), and he's going to start to round into form physically. He's got much of what you'd want to see from a high end SP prospect: he's got the right size (6"3, 190 listed), he's got the right stuff (sits high-90's, with averages in the 95-96 range) and has made under-the-hood progress.

A quick glance at his numbers, however, might have you wondering just why I've got him in this spot. His strikeout rates aren't particularly enticing, as they've hovered in the low-20% range. His walk rates, while not egregious, are a bit below average. So, what gives? 

Well, call it a hunch, because despite the middling strikeout and walk numbers, Rodriguez has really limited the home run ball, surrendering just three over 87 innings last year. This isn't new, either, as he gave up just five in just under 70 innings the year prior. He's running ground-ball rates in the mid-40's. It shows that there's some stuff in his arsenal that's really limiting and keeping hitters in check (Rodriguez has greatly improved his changeup). 

Ultimately, this story has a lot of hallmarks of what you'd expect to see right before someone broke out in a big way. He still needs to continue to progress and get that strikeout rate up — he doesn't need to be a strikeout monster if he's going to get a lot of ground balls and keep the ball in the park, but he can't be at 18% like he was in South Bend, either.

With that said, if he can lift that strikeout rate to the 25% neighborhood, coupled with the proclivity for ground balls? That's a guy who shoots up boards fast. 

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Who  do you think is in line for a big season in 2025? Is there someone you like? Or maybe you disagree with my breakout picks? Lets us know in the comment section below!

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[Bertz]

I mean this in the best way possible but during the spring breakout game Mathis looked like a 30 year old.  He was calm and he was spitting on pitches pretty much right out of the hitters hand.  It was impressive stuff, I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend much of the year at Tenn.  

Hernandez is the guy who has opened my eyes most this spring.  The at bats look good, he has big boy power, and the defense has never been in question.  If there was a way to bet on this stuff I'd be hammering the over on himright now.

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I mean this in the best way possible but during the spring breakout game Mathis looked like a 30 year old.  He was calm and he was spitting on pitches pretty much right out of the hitters hand.  It was impressive stuff, I wouldn't be surprised to see him spend much of the year at Tenn.  

Hernandez is the guy who has opened my eyes most this spring.  The at bats look good, he has big boy power, and the defense has never been in question.  If there was a way to bet on this stuff I'd be hammering the over on himright now.

Good call on how Mathis looks. He's very unfazed and I've picked that up on just what I've gone back and looked at from him in college. He just looks like he's...wiser? It's hard to explain. He's on his first year and in his early 20's but he feels like he's got a "veteran presence" - almost the opposite in many ways, of like, PCA. I think both are good things, and there's different strokes for both. Where as PCA feels twitchy and explosive, Mathis just feels like a calm dude at the plate. I think he'll end up in Double-A through much of the year too - have a feeling he's going to settle in to SB fast. 

Also, totally a random thought - as I've been watching some Mathis tape, totally didn't know he was originally recruited as a two-way guy. 

Hernandez really delving into the power is what I'm hoping. He really turned the contact ability on last year, now I just want to see a bit better barrel control, a bit more loft and to take contact into damage. I tried to be conservative with 12-15 home runs on the year coming from single digits last year, but with his size, would it be crazy if he hit 20? I don't think so.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He actually pitched in college including the CCBL and may even have been  draftable if the hitter resume wasn’t so meaty 

I cannot believe I've missed this. I spent all my time on the bat and cape stuff I totally blinded myself to the arm. Which now, makes the TJS make so much sense. 

[JBears79]

Yeah. Mathis just looks like a future pro. I think the bat will move quickly through the system. Hopefully, he can play 3B at a serviceable level when hes healthy. 

The guy im keeping a really close eye on this year is Eli Lovich. Hoping the Cubs struck gold again in the 11th like they did with Hope. There is a lot to like in his profile. Hoping he put on some more weight in the offseason.

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, JBears79 said:

Yeah. Mathis just looks like a future pro. I think the bat will move quickly through the system. Hopefully, he can play 3B at a serviceable level when hes healthy. 

The guy im keeping a really close eye on this year is Eli Lovich. Hoping the Cubs struck gold again in the 11th like they did with Hope. There is a lot to like in his profile. Hoping he put on some more weight in the offseason.

Yeah, Lovich is one to watch. I kind of think he's a "slow burn" type prospect which is why I didn't really mention him here - he's never focused solely on hitting, is pretty lanky, and is a prep-bat...he feels like a guy, to me, who two years, with weight and development to pop. With that said, he was a name that popped as a pre-draft follow and someone I liked into the draft so it's not a name I'll quibble with you on, either. He gives off Cody Bellinger vibes - not necessarily because I think he will be that - more on the way he looks, his length and the like.

[JBears79]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, Lovich is one to watch. I kind of think he's a "slow burn" type prospect which is why I didn't really mention him here - he's never focused solely on hitting, is pretty lanky, and is a prep-bat...he feels like a guy, to me, who two years, with weight and development to pop. With that said, he was a name that popped as a pre-draft follow and someone I liked into the draft so it's not a name I'll quibble with you on, either. He gives off Cody Bellinger vibes - not necessarily because I think he will be that - more on the way he looks, his length and the like.

I can see that. He has the frame to pack more muscle than Bellinger I think. Love the tools.

 

Im hoping that two year burn is what happens with Chris Paciolla this year

[craig]

On 3/18/2025 at 8:38 AM, Bertz said:

.... The at bats look good, he has big boy power, ....

Interesting reference to "big boy power".  Did you see that in some camp TV AB's? I saw a handful, mostly driving balls through the infield type stuff, don't think I saw anything that got as deep as where a normal outfielder would play.  I thought he looked kinda small, didn't look very physical.  (Obviously guys can add strength after age 21, but he may just be a slender physique always...).   More than Madrigal power, but may be that 1908's 12-17 HR's projection may be more generous than conservative? 

[craig]

Thanks for observations on Mathis.  That would be fun if he turns out to be a true-blue hitter.  

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, craig said:

Interesting reference to "big boy power".  Did you see that in some camp TV AB's? I saw a handful, mostly driving balls through the infield type stuff, don't think I saw anything that got as deep as where a normal outfielder would play.  I thought he looked kinda small, didn't look very physical.  (Obviously guys can add strength after age 21, but he may just be a slender physique always...).   More than Madrigal power, but may be that 1908's 12-17 HR's projection may be more generous than conservative? 

I did some statcasting at the link.  But the tl;dr is that the very limited statcast data we have on him from this spring is pretty sterling. 

He's got just three tracked balls, but all three are over 100 MPH including an opposite field triple at 106.  You wouldn't necessarily think it, but going 106 the opposite way in the air is extremely impressive.  148 guys in MLB managed it a single time last year.  74 did it more than once, only 15 did it at least five times.  Hernandez did it in one of his first three tracked balls, so chances are decent that's not even where he currently tops out.

Based on the handful of guys I looked at, their actual max exit velo was 5-6 MPH higher than their opposite field in the air max.  So that'd give Cristian an implied max in the ~112 range.  That would put him in line with guys like Marcus Semien, Randy Arozarena, and Wyatt Langford.  As a 21 year old shortstop.

He only had 5 homeruns last year, so I don't want to get too over my skis.  But it looks like he has at least 55 or 60 grade raw power *today*.  He's of course got to turn that raw into production before any of this matters but it looks like the special skillset we were promised when he signed is there.

[Jason Ross]

40 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I did some statcasting at the link.  But the tl;dr is that the very limited statcast data we have on him from this spring is pretty sterling. 

He's got just three tracked balls, but all three are over 100 MPH including an opposite field triple at 106.  You wouldn't necessarily think it, but going 106 the opposite way in the air is extremely impressive.  148 guys in MLB managed it a single time last year.  74 did it more than once, only 15 did it at least five times.  Hernandez did it in one of his first three tracked balls, so chances are decent that's not even where he currently tops out.

Based on the handful of guys I looked at, their actual max exit velo was 5-6 MPH higher than their opposite field in the air max.  So that'd give Cristian an implied max in the ~112 range.  That would put him in line with guys like Marcus Semien, Randy Arozarena, and Wyatt Langford.  As a 21 year old shortstop.

He only had 5 homeruns last year, so I don't want to get too over my skis.  But it looks like he has at least 55 or 60 grade raw power *today*.  He's of course got to turn that raw into production before any of this matters but it looks like the special skillset we were promised when he signed is there.

Probably worth noting as well that while I try not to get too worked up one way or another on ST data for a host of reasons; competition level, practice environment/low-stakes, guys are working on certain things...Hernandez is a pretty young player, so while it's pretty unimpressive when an established MLB hitter takes a Triple-A pitcher deep, for example...I think when someone who hasn't hit about A-Ball does something, it means a tad more. 

[craig]

Thanks for shared thoughts, Bertz and others.  Why I love discussion boards.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Speaking of oppo power, I just watched a highlight of a college kid going oppo 517 feet. 108 EV 35 LA. Crazy wind-aided but a very rare sight to see.

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Speaking of oppo power, I just watched a highlight of a college kid going oppo 517 feet. 108 EV 35 LA. Crazy wind-aided but a very rare sight to see.

Yeah, even if you add in the wind and the metal bat and whatever you want, going that far the other way is just insane.