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Baseball season is literally right around the corner, and if you've been focused mostly on the Chicago Cubs 26-man roster, their camp cuts, and who makes it with the team until Opening Day stateside, I wouldn't blame you — this is arguably the most exciting Cubs team since 2018. With that said, the Cubs will have a pretty exciting minor league system in 2025 (as they've had over the last few years) and one that is worth monitoring as the season goes along. There is a lot of talent close to "the Show", but some intriguing prospects who are bubbling just below the surface. Over the next few days here at NSBB, we're going to take a look at some of the players who might break out, players who you might see in Chicago in 2025, and where, on those day-offs for the big league squad, you should spend your time paying attention to.
For today, we're going to look at players in 2025 who might be just a little off the radar (i.e., just outside of the top-10 or 20 in the system) or new to the organization who might break out.
Honorable Mentions:
The reality of prospecting baseball players is you can essentially put anyone you want into this spot. Do you have a favorite under-20-year old hitter? Well, he probably fits this category, regardless of who that is. This could be a few of our more recent IFA signings, such as Derniche Valdez, Fernando Cruz, or Angel Cepeda, all of whom have some sort of combination of interesting tools that they just haven't fully put together yet. Any one of those players could find the magic and rocket up the rankings this season. It could also be a few of our more recent prep-picks, such recent mid-round selections like Ronny Cruz or Ty Southisene . This is a category ripe with names.
Maybe you're more of a gambler (remember, folks, there's no such thing as a "true" pitching prospect), and you favor some of our young pitchers who have tantalizing stuff. Daniel Avitia and Brooks Caple, both of the 2024 draft, could knock down a door or two and find themselves a top-15 prospect by seasons end. There's a bevy of IFA names that could jump this list, as well. IFA pitchers have a tendency to manifest themselves out of thin air — suddenly, a kid who got a signing bonus in the low-thousands is pumping 98mph.
I could really list something like 30 names here, especially with how the system is currently set up. The Cubs are top-heavy in the sense that most of their best prospects project to either start in Iowa or end in Iowa in 2025, and their lower levels are all fairly foggy.
Breakout Prospect #1 - Cole Mathis, 1B/3B/DH
Cole Mathis is someone who I think is going to have a really good 2025 season and someone who offers really fun upside if he can stick at third (which I'll get back to in a moment). The 54th selection out of the College of Charleston has a lot of positives in his game that would suggest he should hit the ground running. Mathis absolutely crushed the Cape Cod league, hitting 11 home runs, and had an OPS north of 1.000 during his stay, which clearly proves that the change from metal to wood bats will not sap this man's power.
Beyond just the eye popping power numbers, per Greg Zumach, Mathis had an 84% contact rate with just a 16% chase rate. This is a hitter who has a strong sense of the zone, a strong approach, and big power. There's little not to like in the bat and these things go a long way in dispelling any fears that he spent his college career in a smaller conference.
Perhaps the most interesting thing with Mathis is that the Cubs announced him as a third baseman when he was selected. Very quickly, however, their second-round selection went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Obviously, the Cubs knew of this on draft-day, so they still believe, despite the surgery, that Mathis can handle third in the interim. I don't think the former Cougar standout is going to play third for a while, but he's been swinging since January, has been getting some work in the field and throwing in the MiLB camp, and I would expect him to get some time there around mid-season.
So taking it all in, we've got a Statcast darling who's already proven he can swing wood bats against the best college can offer, and who has a path beyond being just a first baseman (though we'll see if he can stick at third long-term). I'm not sure if Mathis is going to start in Myrtle Beach or South Bend, but either level should be a level he's capable of putting up some fun numbers at if the Cape Cod production is any sort of a preview. If he can show the arm is healthy by the end of the year, that he's capable of handling third, and the bat plays against older pitchers, then there's a real chance we're looking at a top-five prospect in the system (with all of the likely graduations) by year's end.
Breakout Prospect #2 - Cristian Hernandez, SS
Cristian Hernandez entered 2024 as somewhat of an afterthought. The shortstop really struggled in his first 430 appearances in Myrtle Beach. While we can expect young players to struggle, the former IFA-darling had a sub-80 wRC+, showed weak barrel control and just looked a bit out of his element. It was fair to wonder if Hernandez was going to figure it out. It was clear pretty quickly last year that there had been a lot of work put in during the offseason. Displaying new mechanics, Hernandez was able to make far more contact, lowering his K% by nearly five points, doubling his ISO, and posting a pretty impressive 135 wRC+. It earned him a promotion to South Bend by the end of the season.
Everything wasn't perfect, however, as the transition to a new level was once again a bit of a struggle for the young shortstop. He continued to make a lot of contact, but the contact quality was not up to snuff — there was a visible lack of punch during his 23 games in High-A, as he logged just three extra-base hits, none of which were home runs. That's okay — it's a small sample size, but it is something to note.
I'm not sure we're ever going to see the monster-breakout that turns Hernandez into the "Mini-A-Rod" he was once called as a 16-year-old, but that doesn't mean he can't have a good 2025 campaign. Hernandez has good size and he's going to keep filling out. If he can parlay his new-found contact ability into some more power, then there's still a good contact-power-defense skillset for the Cubs prospect. The organization doesn't have a lot of prospects who are obvious star-level talents below Iowa currently, so he will be given a lot of runway. A Hernandez who swats 12-15 home runs annually could make a pretty significant jump up the boards still.
Breakout Prospect #3 - Erian Rodriguez, SP
This is a bit more of a "dart throw", but this is the kind of profile I'm willing to throw a dart on. Rodriguez is 22 years old, so he's not the youngest of prospects (not that he's "old"), and he's going to start to round into form physically. He's got much of what you'd want to see from a high end SP prospect: he's got the right size (6"3, 190 listed), he's got the right stuff (sits high-90's, with averages in the 95-96 range) and has made under-the-hood progress.
A quick glance at his numbers, however, might have you wondering just why I've got him in this spot. His strikeout rates aren't particularly enticing, as they've hovered in the low-20% range. His walk rates, while not egregious, are a bit below average. So, what gives?
Well, call it a hunch, because despite the middling strikeout and walk numbers, Rodriguez has really limited the home run ball, surrendering just three over 87 innings last year. This isn't new, either, as he gave up just five in just under 70 innings the year prior. He's running ground-ball rates in the mid-40's. It shows that there's some stuff in his arsenal that's really limiting and keeping hitters in check (Rodriguez has greatly improved his changeup).
Ultimately, this story has a lot of hallmarks of what you'd expect to see right before someone broke out in a big way. He still needs to continue to progress and get that strikeout rate up — he doesn't need to be a strikeout monster if he's going to get a lot of ground balls and keep the ball in the park, but he can't be at 18% like he was in South Bend, either.
With that said, if he can lift that strikeout rate to the 25% neighborhood, coupled with the proclivity for ground balls? That's a guy who shoots up boards fast.
Who do you think is in line for a big season in 2025? Is there someone you like? Or maybe you disagree with my breakout picks? Lets us know in the comment section below!
Interested in learning more about the Chicago Cubs' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!
View Cubs Top Prospects
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