Jays Centre: are strikeouts really that bad?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I thought this was a good read on how strikeouts are overblown by fans. They have their downsides compared to other outs but some of that downside is mitigated by the removal of an opportunity for multiple outs from a plate appearance.

The Blue Jays and the Unloved Strikeout - Blue Jays - Jays Centre

JAYSCENTRE.COM

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Many baseball writers see high strikeout rates as a major negative. But is a strikeout that much worse than another kind of out?

 

[CubinNY]

It depends on how you ask the question and whether it’s qualitative on quantitative. 

[Radar3454]

Depends on the situation- runner on 3rd with 1 out - very bad

[Backtobanks]

Strikeouts are terrible.  Putting the ball in play forces the defense to catch the ball and throw the ball to complete an out, while a strikeout is just an out and doesn't require the defense to do anything.  Unfortunately, batters have gone to "swinging for the fences" with lots of strikeouts at the cost of making contact.

 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

4 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Strikeouts are terrible.  Putting the ball in play forces the defense to catch the ball and throw the ball to complete an out, while a strikeout is just an out and doesn't require the defense to do anything.  Unfortunately, batters have gone to "swinging for the fences" with lots of strikeouts at the cost of making contact.

 

Putting the ball in play can also result in a double or triple play.

[Backtobanks]

12 minutes ago, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Putting the ball in play can also result in a double or triple play.

Or a single, double, triple, HR, error, sacrifice, etc.

[Jason Ross]

4 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

Strikeouts are terrible.  Putting the ball in play forces the defense to catch the ball and throw the ball to complete an out, while a strikeout is just an out and doesn't require the defense to do anything.  Unfortunately, batters have gone to "swinging for the fences" with lots of strikeouts at the cost of making contact.

 

So two things: I think things are a little different when we speak of the MLB. For example, I play in an adult men's wood bat league. Putting the ball in our league is key - it almost doesn't matter where you're hitting it, the guy you're hitting it at is paying to play in our league instead of being paid to play baseball - there's a high probability he's going to horsefeathers it up. At the MLB level, especially with the influx of defensive data, teams aren't running out DH level defenders any more, and while true that putting the ball in play gives you a slight hope, it's a really low chance now a days. 

The article's point is exactly what you're kind of arguing and that in most scenarios a strikeout, at the MLB level, effects your run probability almost the same as any other out. With runners on, it can result in you saving an out (as there's a very low chance of a double play on a strikeout). 

I do think strikeout rate and contact rates matter - they're real tools and there's break points on those things. But anecdotally, a strikeout in a given scenario probably isn't as dreadful as many fans make it out to be. 

[Bertz]

The number of times over the last 3 years Nick Madrigal came up with a runner at 3rd and less than two outs and we left the at bat saying "Ah, well, nevertheless" killed any remaining horsefeathers I give about situational strikeouts.

From a teambuilding perspective I am wary of too many strikeouts.  But to me it's a symptom of susceptibility more than the strikeouts themselves.  If the team wants to strike out 30% of the time but run a 110 wRC+ and not have any glaring pitch type susceptibilities that's fine.

[Hot Sauce]

Bad in terms of the actual game of baseball? Not in every situation. 

Bad in terms of watchability and fan enjoyment? Absolutely.

[Stratos]

I wonder how high K% hitters overall do against below-average vs average vs good pitchers, and how that would factor into the playoffs where hitters see mostly good or at least above-average pitchers?

[thawv]

Strikeouts are the worst way to make an out.  Usually an out is an out.  But making an out without putting the ball is play is the worst way to make an out.  

[Derwood]

18 minutes ago, thawv said:

Strikeouts are the worst way to make an out.  Usually an out is an out.  But making an out without putting the ball is play is the worst way to make an out.  

Simply not true

[imb]

we're really 2006 posting in here arent we

[Bertz]

15 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Here’s my earnest attempt to show why it can’t be so bad for hitters: a strikeout costs at min 3 pitches from the pitcher. If, hypothetically so as to not scare anyone, payroll used a 3 where it could use a 1 would anyone be OK with that? There you go 

Even for you this is a reach

[mul21]

49 minutes ago, imb said:

we're really 2006 posting in here arent we

But what about sliding into first?

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, mul21 said:

But what about sliding into first?

We'd have to let Mizzu back on, but he's about to get pardoned for Jan 6th. 

Edited March 3, 2025 by CubinNY

[Ding Dong Johnson]

28 minutes ago, mul21 said:

But what about sliding into first?

Paging deucebaseman

[thawv]

On 3/3/2025 at 8:09 AM, Derwood said:

Simply not true

I could not disagree more.  Making an out without even putting the ball in play is the bottom out maker. 

[Derwood]

18 minutes ago, thawv said:

I could not disagree more.  Making an out without even putting the ball in play is the bottom out maker. 

Hitting to a double play on the first pitch is far worse than striking out on three pitches. 

[Jason Ross]

50 minutes ago, thawv said:

I could not disagree more.  Making an out without even putting the ball in play is the bottom out maker. 

Honest question - did you read the totality of the article? Did you do so with an open mind, or with the mindset of "strikeouts are the worst"? I don't want to sound accusatory or attacking in tone there, I just wanted to double check.

I think if you give the article posted an honest read, with an open mind, you'll understand the point it's making. It does so with honest data that shows in most scenarios, a strikeout (at the MLB level) does not meaningfully change run scoring. Yes, there are times (one out, runner on third) that hitting the ball in play does effect that, but the article accepts that. It's suggesting, using data and run expectancy, that strikeouts likely don't matter much. I have said that I think in a broad spectrum look that we can argue things that strikeout rate over the course of a season for an individual player and contact rates do matter, but each individual strikeout probably doesn't matter. 

Do you have data, not an anecdote, but data to support your side of the argument? I'd be glad to look at it! If not, there's probably a good reason why that is - most likely that reason is that there is not data to support that argument. 

[thawv]

23 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Honest question - did you read the totality of the article? Did you do so with an open mind, or with the mindset of "strikeouts are the worst"? I don't want to sound accusatory or attacking in tone there, I just wanted to double check.

I think if you give the article posted an honest read, with an open mind, you'll understand the point it's making. It does so with honest data that shows in most scenarios, a strikeout (at the MLB level) does not meaningfully change run scoring. Yes, there are times (one out, runner on third) that hitting the ball in play does effect that, but the article accepts that. It's suggesting, using data and run expectancy, that strikeouts likely don't matter much. I have said that I think in a broad spectrum look that we can argue things that strikeout rate over the course of a season for an individual player and contact rates do matter, but each individual strikeout probably doesn't matter. 

Do you have data, not an anecdote, but data to support your side of the argument? I'd be glad to look at it! If not, there's probably a good reason why that is - most likely that reason is that there is not data to support that argument. 

I'm not saying that overall, it doesn't change run scoring.  I'm saying that I can't find a worse way to make an out.  If there's a worse way to make an out in a single at bat, I don't know what it is.  Obviously, I'm not talking about situational at bats. 

[thawv]

23 hours ago, Derwood said:

Hitting to a double play on the first pitch is far worse than striking out on three pitches. 

Of course it is.  You're talking about making 2 outs.  That's moving the goal posts.  It's not a choice of striking out or hitting in to a double play.  

 

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm not saying that overall, it doesn't change run scoring.  I'm saying that I can't find a worse way to make an out.  If there's a worse way to make an out in a single at bat, I don't know what it is.  Obviously, I'm not talking about situational at bats. 

Right, but that article is suggesting that isn't true at the MLB level. If run scoring doesn't get impacted, than the style of out literally doesn't matter. Stylistically to you it might, but that's an anecdote, and nothing more. 

It's very different at lower levels. At the MLB level, outs are outs in the grand scheme of things. Hitting a ground ball to an MLB SS is the same as swinging and missing three times. You're going to get out. There's the rare situation where even the best player does make a mistake, but the amount of times that happens just isn't very significant. When teams identify pure butchers in the field, they become DH's (I.E. see Christopher Morel).

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm not saying that overall, it doesn't change run scoring.  I'm saying that I can't find a worse way to make an out.  If there's a worse way to make an out in a single at bat, I don't know what it is.  Obviously, I'm not talking about situational at bats. 

Even if we take situations out, a strikeout is certainly not worse than a hitter feebly putting a ball in play on a pitch out of the zone. Who cares if they made contact and put the ball in play; it was a pitch that shouldn't have been swung at and had a negative outcome on the team. Should the player be celebrated for doing a poor job?

Edited March 5, 2025 by We Got The Whole 9

[cl smooth]

i'd rather watch a power hitter strike out than nick madrigal strike out.