4 Chicago Cubs Make Baseball Prospectus's 2025 Top 101 Prospects List

[Matthew Trueblood]

Tuesday brought the release of Baseball Prospectus's 2025 Top 101 Prospects, an annual source of intrigue for those who love tracking the progress of the farm system. This year's will both excite and frustrate some fans. The two highest-ranking prospects with Cubs ties here are Zyhir Hope (No. 8 ) and Cam Smith (No. 20), whom the team traded for Michael Busch and Kyle Tucker, respectively. Then again, BP is going to end up much higher on Hope (and a bit higher on Smith) than anyone else, and the good news begins thereafter.

Matt Shaw comes in at No. 25, making him the highest-ranking prospect on this list to be penciled into the Cubs lineup for a coming season in recent memory. It's a good reminder that he's a legitimately excellent prospect and a solid choice for third base. After that, three Cubs cluster into the back quarter of the list:

• Moises Ballesteros, No. 73
• Owen Caissie, No. 77
• Cade Horton, No. 85

These guys are lower here than on some other lists you've likely seen recently, but the rankings feel fair. At the same time, they're obviously not gospel. FanGraphs's list of the top Cubs prospects lists Kevin Alcánatara second, behind only Shaw, which is a good reminder of the volatility and room for debate around all of these players. The Cubs don't have an elite farm system, but they sure do have a collection of intriguing players in the uppermost levels of the minors.

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[JunkyardWalrus]

So Jed traded away what would have been our top two prospects within 12 months for a 2-3 war 1b and one year of Tucker?

Am I getting this right?

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

So Jed traded away what would have been our top two prospects within 12 months for a 2-3 war 1b and one year of Tucker?

Am I getting this right?

According to BP, yes. But BP isn't gospel. I'm sure if you asked the Cubs, they wouldn't agree with you. It's a good reminder that the industry has their rankings, but teams have their own internal rankings. Cam Smith wasn't even a guaranteed top-10 prospect in the draft last summer according to MLB teams. 

At the time the Cubs traded Hope, it's important to remember, as well, he had 43 PA's in the MiLB, was an 11th round selection who got $400,000 signing bonus - that of a around a 3rd round pick. Yes, Hope has some real helium right now. But if the Cubs traded Eli Lovach (their most recent, 11th round, 18 year old pick) for Michael Busch, they would almost assuredly be winning that trade a year later. It sucks Hope blew up - but this so far is a very rare and outlier outcome. Ferris was the prize there, and Hope was much more of an intriguing, 18 year old flier. 

[imb]

wasnt BP the outlet that comped brendan harris to albert pujols? sure that was 50 years and probably 200 staff writers ago, but that's the copium im clinging to baby

[JunkyardWalrus]

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

According to BP, yes. But BP isn't gospel. I'm sure if you asked the Cubs, they wouldn't agree with you. It's a good reminder that the industry has their rankings, but teams have their own internal rankings. Cam Smith wasn't even a guaranteed top-10 prospect in the draft last summer according to MLB teams. 

At the time the Cubs traded Hope, it's important to remember, as well, he had 43 PA's in the MiLB, was an 11th round selection who got $400,000 signing bonus - that of a around a 3rd round pick. Yes, Hope has some real helium right now. But if the Cubs traded Eli Lovach (their most recent, 11th round, 18 year old pick) for Michael Busch, they would almost assuredly be winning that trade a year later. It sucks Hope blew up - but this so far is a very rare and outlier outcome. Ferris was the prize there, and Hope was much more of an intriguing, 18 year old flier. 

Fair. 

I was conflating Hope with Ferris for whatever reason. Yeah, that is pretty flukey you are absolutely correct. Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

If they extend Tucker I'll be less cranky.

Edit: Opening day of Cubs convention is his birthday. Seems a little obvious to announce an extension then, I know, but I'd let it slide.

Edited January 14, 2025 by JunkyardWalrus

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, imb said:

wasnt BP the outlet that comped brendan harris to albert pujols? sure that was 50 years and probably 200 staff writers ago, but that's the copium im clinging to baby

This will get called sour grapes. but the Dodgers perpetually have these breakout performances in the extremely hitter friendly Low A California League.  Their players annual pepper throughout top 100 lists and yet the best position player they've produced since COVID is Michael Busch.  

[Jason Ross]

Just now, JunkyardWalrus said:

Fair. 

I was conflating Hope with Ferris for whatever reason. Yeah, that is pretty flukey you are absolutely correct. Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

If they extend Tucker I'll be less cranky.

No worries! I(t's easy getting emotional about prospects. Especially the baby ones like Zyhir Hope. There seems to be a correlation between perceived ceiling and ETA in that prospects further away feel more "unknown" (with less data comes less obvious flaws, as well, with less data more could happen!). It'll be interesting to see where we are on Hope in a year or two, especially. Like he looks really good right now, but maybe he's just really bad at sweepers or something and we'll find out later.