Cubs sign Thielbar

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Hopefully the next move is for a guy who is already good and doesn’t need to be fixed. This move is not inspiring at all. 

I don't think he needs to be fixed.  He's pretty average for a reliever at this point, so he's fine.  He's almost on par with Chafin according to XFIP and projections.

I thought you didn't want the Cubs to spend much on relievers?

[Bertz]

 

 

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I don't think he needs to be fixed.  He's pretty average for a reliever at this point, so he's fine.  He's almost on par with Chafin according to XFIP and projections.

I thought you didn't want the Cubs to spend much on relievers?

I have been suggesting Yates and Minter on several posts. So I am not opposed to spending on the pen. I just don’t think spending necessarily means the pen will be good. Thielbar is ok, if they also add more talent to the pen, bench and starting rotation, because they saved money on him. I am neither excited nor upset by this signing. kind of meh. It will depend on what else they do. 

[Tryptamine]

55 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

 

Not awful I suppose. Still not thrilled, but given the 5M number throwing around before it's tolerable.

[Stratos]

45 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I have been suggesting Yates and Minter on several posts. So I am not opposed to spending on the pen. I just don’t think spending necessarily means the pen will be good. Thielbar is ok, if they also add more talent to the pen, bench and starting rotation, because they saved money on him. I am neither excited nor upset by this signing. kind of meh. It will depend on what else they do. 

This is definitely the loogy signing.  Minter is possibly better but also projects the same on WAR, he was hurt last year and ended the year on the IL and is coming off hip surgery.  He's also a bounce-back guy:

Quote

 

On January 11, 2024, Minter again avoided the salary arbitration process, agreeing to a one-year, $6.22 million deal.^[30][31] Minter was placed on the injured list in late May, and revealed that he had left hip impingement the following month.^[32] Although he was activated in early July,^[33] Minter returned to the injured list in mid-August with the same issue,^[34][35] and planned to undergo surgery.^[36] He was transferred to the 60-day injured list on August 20, effectively ending his season

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A._J._Minter

I agree they also need a quality late-inning reliever capable of closing, like a Yates.

Agree these savings need to be spent elsewhere.  If they don't spend at least 230m i'm not subscribing to MLB.TV or Marquee and am watching the games for free online.

 

[chibears55]

Lol

[Tryptamine]

44 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lol

3rd highest revenue team, appears zero times in the list of the 24 highest $ contracts in MLB history.  In fact Chicago's biggest contract, Heyward $184, was nearly $60M short of appearing in the top 24. Meanwhile mega spenders like the Tigers, Marlins, Royals and Nationals are all represented. 

[javy knows my name]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

3rd highest revenue team, appears zero times in the list of the 24 highest $ contracts in MLB history.  In fact Chicago's biggest contract, Heyward $184, was nearly $60M short of appearing in the top 24. Meanwhile mega spenders like the Tigers, Marlins, Royals and Nationals are all represented. 

Seems like pretty arbitrary number, then

[Stratos]

According to Fangraphs, before this signing the Cubs are at 191m in tax spending for 2025.  That gives them about 50m to spend, minus around 10m in approx space they'll leave, so 40m in space left, is this correct?

New loogy costs just under 3m so we're at 37m left.  We're all guessing they sign another reliever, probably a closer-type, plus a SP and infield bench bat.

Let's say 10m for the reliever.  So 27m left.  Most of that will go to the SP via trade/FA, probably 15-20m, leaving around 7  to 12m for bench bats and taking fliers on some guys for the pen/bench (MLB or minor league deals).

Wildcard here is Sasaki.  We get him for league minimum and it opens up 14-19m.  That would make a trade for a quality 3B/2B utility type on the INF like Brandon Lowe a possibility (he'll make 10.5m) plus they could easily upgrade their closer-type to a Hoffman or Scott with 11m to spare, which could be spent on the pen/bench.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

3rd highest revenue team, appears zero times in the list of the 24 highest $ contracts in MLB history.  In fact Chicago's biggest contract, Heyward $184, was nearly $60M short of appearing in the top 24. Meanwhile mega spenders like the Tigers, Marlins, Royals and Nationals are all represented. 

Here's the list you might be referencing:  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/mlb-largest-contracts-2.html

Of those 24 contracts, 12 were signed pre-2020 where we can say we have enough to judge them in hindsight.  Of those 12, i'd say only 3 were worth it (Harper, Cole, Arod's first deal).  Most of the rest were absolute disasters.

Seems pretty clear that if you sign a guy to a big deal in their mid-20's like Harper/Soto/Arod its typically worth it (Trout's extension was some bad luck with injuries still in his prime.) but if you're signing a huge deal when a guy is 29-30+ y/o you're a fool unless you're the Mets/Dodgers and can pay 70m AAV for a few star years while the rest are pedestrian.  For the vast majority of teams the data just doesn't back up the risk and you're playing a bad hand hoping to get really lucky.

[Bertz]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

According to Fangraphs, before this signing the Cubs are at 191m in tax spending for 2025.  That gives them about 50m to spend, minus around 10m in approx space they'll leave, so 40m in space left, is this correct?

New loogy costs just under 3m so we're at 37m left.  We're all guessing they sign another reliever, probably a closer-type, plus a SP and infield bench bat.

Let's say 10m for the reliever.  So 27m left.  Most of that will go to the SP via trade/FA, probably 15-20m, leaving around 7  to 12m for bench bats and taking fliers on some guys for the pen/bench (MLB or minor league deals).

Wildcard here is Sasaki.  We get him for league minimum and it opens up 14-19m.  That would make a trade for a quality 3B/2B utility type on the INF like Brandon Lowe a possibility (he'll make 10.5m) plus they could easily upgrade their closer-type to a Hoffman or Scott with 11m to spare, which could be spent on the pen/bench.

Yeah this is pretty close to the mental math I've got in my head as well.  I expect they add another domestic SP regardless of the Sasaki decision but that's my only quibble.

A pretty easy illustration for signing Thielbar is the bench and Trueblood's article yesterday.  The team needs a backup 1B.  Connor Joe would probably cost $3M, while Mark Canha would cost closer to $10M.  Would you rather have Thielbar and Canha or Minter and Joe?  It's not a trick question, either is defensible, these are just the types of tradeoffs we're talking.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah this is pretty close to the mental math I've got in my head as well.  I expect they add another domestic SP regardless of the Sasaki decision but that's my only quibble.

A pretty easy illustration for signing Thielbar is the bench and Trueblood's article yesterday.  The team needs a backup 1B.  Connor Joe would probably cost $3M, while Mark Canha would cost closer to $10M.  Would you rather have Thielbar and Canha or Minter and Joe?  It's not a trick question, either is defensible, these are just the types of tradeoffs we're talking.

Or Thielbar and Joe but spend more on a pen arm (Yates) an add another starting pitcher taking between $15M and $22M (Lopez, Alcantara, Cease) 

Again, like you said, not a trick question. But this is also an option. 

Edited January 1, 2025 by Rcal10

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

According to Fangraphs, before this signing the Cubs are at 191m in tax spending for 2025.  That gives them about 50m to spend, minus around 10m in approx space they'll leave, so 40m in space left, is this correct?

New loogy costs just under 3m so we're at 37m left.  We're all guessing they sign another reliever, probably a closer-type, plus a SP and infield bench bat.

Let's say 10m for the reliever.  So 27m left.  Most of that will go to the SP via trade/FA, probably 15-20m, leaving around 7  to 12m for bench bats and taking fliers on some guys for the pen/bench (MLB or minor league deals).

Wildcard here is Sasaki.  We get him for league minimum and it opens up 14-19m.  That would make a trade for a quality 3B/2B utility type on the INF like Brandon Lowe a possibility (he'll make 10.5m) plus they could easily upgrade their closer-type to a Hoffman or Scott with 11m to spare, which could be spent on the pen/bench.

There's always a chance they don't to much of anything.  This is a lot of speculation, Stratus.  I doesn't sound bad at all, but I'm not so sure they do much with that 40 million off season money. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

There's always a chance they don't to much of anything.  This is a lot of speculation, Stratus.  I doesn't sound bad at all, but I'm not so sure they do much with that 40 million off season money. 

I don’t think what has transpired since they traded Bellinger should have us now worried they won’t spend the money. It is still early. And no one I expected or hoped they would go after is off the board now. I do think they will spend but I can also see saving some to try extending PCA. Maybe they won’t spend $40M, but I think there will be at least $20M more spent. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Yeah this is pretty close to the mental math I've got in my head as well.  I expect they add another domestic SP regardless of the Sasaki decision but that's my only quibble.

A pretty easy illustration for signing Thielbar is the bench and Trueblood's article yesterday.  The team needs a backup 1B.  Connor Joe would probably cost $3M, while Mark Canha would cost closer to $10M.  Would you rather have Thielbar and Canha or Minter and Joe?  It's not a trick question, either is defensible, these are just the types of tradeoffs we're talking.

I assume they carry 2 infielders on the bench as usual.  Last year it was usually a corner guy (Wisdom) and someone who could play SS and middle INF (Mastro) so they could cover anywhere in a pinch.

If Shaw gets a shot at 3B he can cover SS if Nico/Swanson get hurt, plus 2b.  They also still have Mastro and Vazquez on the 40.  They just signed that Vidal guy who can play anywhere but mostly SS/2b and has nothing to prove in AAA plus looks to be out of options and they gave up Mervis for. 

I think one of those guys gets a bench spot (likely Vidal) plus a corner guy .  Not sure if there's a decent guy out there who plays both 3b/1b so hard to say what they do at 1b if they also want a Rojas type backing up Shaw at 3b.  I think Jonathan Long (RHB) will be the primary 1b in Iowa, making Mervis expendable.

[Stratos]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think what has transpired since they traded Bellinger should have us now worried they won’t spend the money. It is still early. And no one I expected or hoped they would go after is off the board now. I do think they will spend but I can also see saving some to try extending PCA. Maybe they won’t spend $40M, but I think there will be at least $20M more spent. 

Can't see them cutting payroll after not making the playoffs again and adding Tucker

[thawv]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think what has transpired since they traded Bellinger should have us now worried they won’t spend the money. It is still early. And no one I expected or hoped they would go after is off the board now. I do think they will spend but I can also see saving some to try extending PCA. Maybe they won’t spend $40M, but I think there will be at least $20M more spent. 

I don't know what's going on.  Jed may have been told, no big spending, as is his lame duck season.  I also read that he had a private equity firm invest in the team, and that Ricketts is not going to, or is allowed to make a long term signing until after the 2026 CBA.  Again, I don't really know what to expect. 

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I don't know what's going on.  Jed may have been told, no big spending, as is his lame duck season.  I also read that he had a private equity firm invest in the team, and that Ricketts is not going to, or is allowed to make a long term signing until after the 2026 CBA.  Again, I don't really know what to expect. 

The Cubs have been reported, over and over again, to be able to spend up to around $8-$10m under the LT. I think it's unlikely that any of that is what's going on - and more likely that the Cubs have other players they would rather spend the Bellinger money on.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs have been reported, over and over again, to be able to spend up to around $8-$10m under the LT. I think it's unlikely that any of that is what's going on - and more likely that the Cubs have other players they would rather spend the Bellinger money on.

Like I said, I have no idea at all.  It's just what I read.  That said, being able to spend, and actually spending is not the same.  I'll wait and see.  But I don't expect any big spending from here on out. 

 

[Jason Ross]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

Like I said, I have no idea at all.  It's just what I read.  That said, being able to spend, and actually spending is not the same.  I'll wait and see.  But I don't expect any big spending from here on out. 

 

Well, what reason would Jed Hoyer have to not spend? That'...doesn't make sense haha. 

I mean I don't expect them to be a "massive" spender, but they're probably going to bring in:

At least 1 SP

At least 1 more BP guy 

1 or 2 bench players (a 3b and a RHH 1b/OF)

That's going to cost $30-$40m probably. So they won't sign a Bregman. But there's probably 3-5 more players coming in. So you can classify that as "massive" or not, but that's probably a baseline expectation.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, thawv said:

I don't know what's going on.  Jed may have been told, no big spending, as is his lame duck season.  I also read that he had a private equity firm invest in the team, and that Ricketts is not going to, or is allowed to make a long term signing until after the 2026 CBA.  Again, I don't really know what to expect. 

Exactly right. You don’t know. Nor do I. I am just saying that nothing that has happened so far should concern you if you did think they would spend. I never thought they would spend big on a FA pitcher anyway. At least not once they traded for Tucker. But they can spend most of that $40M we all say they have on 3 more players and none of them would be considered big spending. Too many people want things NOW. So far, IMO, the Cubs have done a good job this off season. They need to do more, but nothing they have done or haven’t done leads me to believe they won’t do more. Let’s let the FO do what it is going to do before we start complaining and/or worrying about the 25’ season. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, what reason would Jed Hoyer have to not spend? That'...doesn't make sense haha. 

I mean I don't expect them to be a "massive" spender, but they're probably going to bring in:

At least 1 SP

At least 1 more BP guy 

1 or 2 bench players (a 3b and a RHH 1b/OF)

That's going to cost $30-$40m probably. So they won't sign a Bregman. But there's probably 3-5 more players coming in.

This is how I see it. 4 more without Sasaki or 5 with him. 

[thawv]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, what reason would Jed Hoyer have to not spend? That'...doesn't make sense haha. 

I mean I don't expect them to be a "massive" spender, but they're probably going to bring in:

At least 1 SP

At least 1 more BP guy 

1 or 2 bench players (a 3b and a RHH 1b/OF)

That's going to cost $30-$40m probably. So they won't sign a Bregman. But there's probably 3-5 more players coming in. So you can classify that as "massive" or not, but that's probably a baseline expectation.

Maybe, he was told he can't spend too much more money.  We both have thoughts and assumptions.  We both know one thing though.  We're eventually going to find out. 

[thawv]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Exactly right. You don’t know. Nor do I. I am just saying that nothing that has happened so far should concern you if you did think they would spend. I never thought they would spend big on a FA pitcher anyway. At least not once they traded for Tucker. But they can spend most of that $40M we all say they have on 3 more players and none of them would be considered big spending. Too many people want things NOW. So far, IMO, the Cubs have done a good job this off season. They need to do more, but nothing they have done or haven’t done leads me to believe they won’t do more. Let’s let the FO do what it is going to do before we start complaining and/or worrying about the 25’ season. 

When they traded for Tucker, and moved Belli is the exact moment that I thought they would spend about 40 million this off season.  Not I'm not so confident about that.  Once they traded for Tucker and dumped Belli's money, I convinced myself that they are going big on SP.  I was quite wrong again. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, thawv said:

Maybe, he was told he can't spend too much more money.  We both have thoughts and assumptions.  We both know one thing though.  We're eventually going to find out. 

I'm not going on anything other than people who have reported what the Cubs can spend. That's not a thought or an assumption - that's real reporting from people who have real connections to the team. Nothing should have changed that math. The debt structure wasn't some new wrinkle or anything. 

So it doesn't make sense to doom boner and worry about some random idea that all of a sudden the math has changed because they signed Caleb Thielbar. Instead, it's probably the best to just...not even worry about their spending. They will probably still bring in those players, and spend around $30m or so more.