Cubs Likely to Add Another Starting Pitcher

[Bertz]

The duo over at The Athletic has been plugged into the Cubs thinking this winter.  This morning, they provide a little clarity on the teams' pursuit of starting pitching, as well as some timing:

Quote

Adding one more credible option to the rotation mix is likely for the Cubs. If that goal is accomplished in the next few weeks, it would likely have occurred via trade. But if that addition comes through free agency, the Cubs would probably wait out this current rush to sign starting pitchers, which has led to skyrocketing price tags.

The wait on the Juan Soto sweepstakes and how that impacts the Cody Bellinger market is mentioned as a factor in the Cubs' decision making.  Presumably that could cut both ways, either allowing directly for a SP to be brought in as part of a Bellinger trade, or freeing up money to pursue a wider range of free agents.

Walker Buehler is name checked as a potential target.  Though that middle class of free agent starters is moving quickly, so he may be gone by the time any requisite trade dominos fall.

View full rumor

[Bertz]

I'll say that given how expediently the SP market moves and how the Cubs aren't simply desperate for innings, I'm a bit skeptical that there will be worthwhile options in free agency in January.

The team absolutely needed one SP.  From here the idea should be that a guy is clearly better than Assad.  Though maybe something happens like Nick Pivetta's market gets crushed by the QO.  Or maybe you add another guy you feel good about on a per inning basis without needing to worry about his innings, such as Alex Cobb.

[Rcal10]

I still see a Bellinger for Castillo trade as very possible. Maybe to even out the payroll some the Cubs take Garver back in the deal. Maybe the Cubs add Wicks or Wesneski and/or a minor leaguer to the deal. Not top 10 in the system. That deal gets the Mariners a left handed bat they want, rids them of a $12M contract for Garver and gets them out of some Castillo money the last 3 years of his deal. But it helps the Cubs because it gets a solid pitcher and a back up/starting catcher for Bellinger’s money. Cubs would now have about $30M to $35M to spend to get another bat and maybe a pen arm. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Beuhler makes too much sense with the way they operate 

[Cuzi]

Kind of hope Buehler is gone before the Cubs are ready to seriously consider it. I figured the Cubs would be in on one legit starter they could slot in ahead of Taillon and then one injury upside pick. I feel like they already made that injury upside pick with Boyd. We dont need another.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Kind of hope Buehler is gone before the Cubs are ready to seriously consider it. I figured the Cubs would be in on one legit starter they could slot in ahead of Taillon and then one injury upside pick. I feel like they already made that injury upside pick with Boyd. We dont need another.

Castillo in a trade.  🤷

[Cuzi]

20 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Castillo in a trade.  🤷

I'm down with that. The issue I have is that most of the trades people talk about for him around here dont seem like a legit possibility. It does not make sense to me for the Mariners to take on Bellinger. Yes, he plays 1B and they can use him there to upgrade the defense over Raley and use Raley as the guy who bounces around the OF and gives Bellinger a breather every so often, but the problem is the dollars.

The Mariners are working with 1/3 of the money we are talking about the Cubs have. If the Mariners would do Castillo + Garver for Bellinger then I would do it. That probably equals out in value. But do I think the Mariners are interested in losing Castillo to go from Raley to Bellinger? Absolutely not. They wash on money, get out from at least 1-2 years of Castillo's money, but have to replace Castillo and find a new backup catcher with the same lack of funding you had to start with, oh and by the way you still have to find a 2B and 3B and BP.

It's probably why the rumor around the Cubs and Mariners discussing Cody Bellinger hasn't been as hyped out of Mariners camp as the rumor around Nico Hoerner. Hoerner gives them money savings and the best player in deal by a pretty decent margin. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Bellinger discussion lasted like 10 minutes of brain storming before it was scrapped. If I was them and I was told Bellinger has to be involved then I would just keep Castillo for the year and then trade him next year when his NTC is gone and he has no power at the table.

Edited December 7, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'm down with that. The issue I have is that most of the trades people talk about for him around here dont seem like a legit possibility. It does not make sense to me for the Mariners to take on Bellinger. Yes, he plays 1B and they can use him there to upgrade the defense over Raley and use Raley as the guy who bounces around the OF and gives Bellinger a breather every so often, but the problem is the dollars.

The Mariners are working with 1/3 of the money we are talking about the Cubs have. If the Mariners would do Castillo + Garver for Bellinger then I would do it. That probably equals out in value. But do I think the Mariners are interested in losing Castillo to go from Raley to Bellinger? Absolutely not. They wash on money, get out from at least 1-2 years of Castillo's money, but have to replace Castillo and find a new backup catcher with the same lack of funding you had to start with, oh and by the way you still have to find a 2B and 3B and BP.

It's probably why the rumor around the Cubs and Mariners discussing Cody Bellinger hasn't been as hyped out of Mariners camp as the rumor around Nico Hoerner. Hoerner gives them money savings and the best player in deal by a pretty decent margin. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the Bellinger discussion lasted like 10 minutes of brain storming before it was scrapped. If I was them and I was told Bellinger has to be involved then I would just keep Castillo for the year and then trade him next year when his NTC is gone and he has no power at the table.

I get that. But we are talking about Dipito here. And we should never act like we know what a team would do. As you said, it is pretty fair with Garver in the deal. Maybe the Cubs add Wicks? Maybe that replaces Castillo in the Seattle rotation. Maybe they like him. It is pretty fair and does fill teams needs. If the Cubs were able to do something like this I would hope they would use the money they have to add a big bat. I would rather guys like Cassie and Shaw start in AAA and only come up in the event of an injury. 

[Cuzi]

I wouldn't add Wicks to the deal. They can have Kilian. They can have Birdsell. I'm not adding a valuable MLB piece like Wicks to a deal that is already pretty damn close to break even. Wicks was not good last year, but he is also just 25 years old with 80.2 MLB innings. Justin Steele wasn't a good pitcher at 25 years old either. Wicks was regarded as a better prospect than Steele. I'm not throwing Wicks in a deal as purely an overpay to get a deal done for Luis Castillo. Wicks may not amount to anything. He may be a complete bust. But the Cubs have 2 more years of pre arb and all 3 minor league options to figure that out. There's no rush to just throw him away.

Edited December 7, 2024 by Cuzi

[Post Count Padder]

Maybe it's prospect hogging but I do like Birdsell quite a bit and would be bummed about trading him. And same goes for Wicks. His numbers last year weren't great but he was worse down the stretch after an IL stint. Maybe something was just off all year. I still like his outcome as a No. 3-4 starter in the near future, which is quite valuable.

[Bertz]

Yeah count me in as hoping some permutation of Cubs-Mariners happens with Castillo coming back this way.

Some lesser FA's that I'd be down with:

Alex Cobb - The arm is held together with duct tape but he's very effective when he's on the mound. The last three years he's got an ERA in line with guys like Freddy Peralta and Aaron Nola, and an xFIP in line with Max Fried and Shane Bieber.  You're not getting a lot of innings but it's #2 starter type performance while he's on the mound

Patrick Sandoval - His ugly ERA got him DFA'd but his peripherals say he was a league average starter.  Add in some potential for improvement with his age and getting away from the dumpster fire in Anaheim and he's a fun target

Jakob Junis - He's been a swing man for the Giants and Brewers the last few years and been very effective.  Has not gotten runway as a SP even though he's performed as a starter when asked

Spencer Turnbull - He had an amazing April as a SP for the Phillies, then some injuries started piling up and the effectiveness slid before his season ended late June

[ToolDRT]

Why do we never seemed to be mentioned as far as Sasaki? 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Why do we never seemed to be mentioned as far as Sasaki? 

Both Passan and Rosenthal have mentioned us with 5 other of the heavy hitters, specifically, in separate articles today alone. We get mentioned a lot.

In articles like the one here, from Sharma and Mooney, I think he isn't mentioned because the Cubs offseason probably doesn't change with or without Roki. You probably see some sort of semi-6 man thing with him, as he's had some injuries and NPB guys don't have as much rest naturally. So he's probably not going to be a massive inning eater right away. Also, he's essentially free on the budget. So you do your offseason and if you get him, awesome, and if you don't, you don't. 

[ToolDRT]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Both Passan and Rosenthal have mentioned us with 5 other of the heavy hitters, specifically, in separate articles today alone. We get mentioned a lot.

In articles like the one here, from Sharma and Mooney, I think he isn't mentioned because the Cubs offseason probably doesn't change with or without Roki. You probably see some sort of semi-6 man thing with him, as he's had some injuries and NPB guys don't have as much rest naturally. So he's probably not going to be a massive inning eater right away. Also, he's essentially free on the budget. So you do your offseason and if you get him, awesome, and if you don't, you don't. 

Did not see those articles. Did it seem like “here’s some teams we think fit with him” or, like, they actually know we’re interested? 
 

I dont see it happening anyway. But he’s my top offseason get. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

I wouldn't add Wicks to the deal. They can have Kilian. They can have Birdsell. I'm not adding a valuable MLB piece like Wicks to a deal that is already pretty damn close to break even. Wicks was not good last year, but he is also just 25 years old with 80.2 MLB innings. Justin Steele wasn't a good pitcher at 25 years old either. Wicks was regarded as a better prospect than Steele. I'm not throwing Wicks in a deal as purely an overpay to get a deal done for Luis Castillo. Wicks may not amount to anything. He may be a complete bust. But the Cubs have 2 more years of pre arb and all 3 minor league options to figure that out. There's no rush to just throw him away.

Honestly Wicks was added by me for your benefit. I wouldn’t want to deal him either. But it seems you don’t feel Bellinger for Garver and Castillo was something Seattle would do. So I padded it with Wicks. I actually agree with you that him added is too much. But the fact is it does appear those teams line up pretty well. Bellinger plus something small should get Castillo and Garver. 
After this add a bat. If it is a FA there is Santander, Alonso, O’Neill and even Adames. Lesser guys could be Pederson or Conforto. Or if they go with a trade there is Lowe or aim high for Vlad or Tucker. If they went with the cheaper bats (Conforto, Pederson, Lowe) they even have enough money to sign a bench right handed bat. Should still leave them with about $10M to sign a pen arm. For me, that would be a great off season. Get Sasaki too and they are a 90+ win team. 

Edited December 7, 2024 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

But the fact is it does appear those teams line up pretty well.

It appears the 2 teams line up pretty well when you are talking about Nico Hoerner or Isaac Paredes for pitching. Bellinger doesn't line up pretty well. They have Luke Raley and Bellinger is not a cheap player. The only connection between the 2 teams on Bellinger is a MLBTR article saying the teams have discussed Bellinger. Nothing in regards to the Mariners talking about Bellinger even comes close to all the smoke there is about how much they like Nico Hoerner and want him. Bellinger is an after thought.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, ToolDRT said:

Did not see those articles. Did it seem like “here’s some teams we think fit with him” or, like, they actually know we’re interested? 
 

I dont see it happening anyway. But he’s my top offseason get. 

They were listed as if they were the big players and teams to watch in the Sasaki sweeps.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It appears the 2 teams line up pretty well when you are talking about Nico Hoerner or Isaac Paredes for pitching. Bellinger doesn't line up pretty well. They have Luke Raley and Bellinger is not a cheap player. The only connection between the 2 teams on Bellinger is a MLBTR article saying the teams have discussed Bellinger. Nothing in regards to the Mariners talking about Bellinger even comes close to all the smoke there is about how much they like Nico Hoerner and want him. Bellinger is an after thought.

Guess we will see. I think it is more like Nico is talked about when discussing Woo and Bellinger is talked about when discussing Castillo. I don’t see the Xhbs trading Nico for Castillo. 

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

^^ I don’t believe Woo falls under the “proven” MLB talent the Cubs are said to be looking for in a Hoerner deal

Call me a stickler but 3 MLB WAR going into the age 25 season with a TJ and still injury worries is not particularly close to “proven” in context

Castillo’s popularity among the Cubs blogosphere fascinates me too. I “get” it in that he’s an excellent and proven MLB SP, but same crowd in online Cubslandia the past decade+ craps their pants at any player in the org even close to 30 with a non-rookie deal (literally do it now! Also was the main storyline post-2016 during 1.0). Its the weirdest thing abt this offseason so far. Like Woo/Miller is at least consistent with the $/WAR and control obsession that I know, but a 32 YO (2-3years older than boring Bellinger! 3-4 than Hoerner!) coming off an unspectacular season and Cubs fans tea leavesing a perfectest fit somehow is such an interesting swerve. Is the thinking that like he checks the box of a Big Move without taking on the risk of actually expecting to win tons of playoff games over years and years?   

——-

Edit: Actually came in to say that I keep forgetting about Sasaki. His availability really clouds the trade route? The white whale under these conditions is a young-er, TJ free, power SP who is also dirt cheap and there he horsefeathers is. What do previous international cap space (so absurd) trades look like? Is that even necessary? 

I don’t see the Cubs dealing Nico for Castillo. To me that doesn’t make sense. I also understand Woo or Miller shouldn’t be put under proven major league pitcher. I know you want Kirby or Gilbert, which, so would I. But they need to add a solid #2 and maybe a #3 to make that happen. Maybe only one solid prospect if they take back Garver in the deal. That does lower Seattles payroll. In the ideal world I would like to see either Kirby or Gilbert and Garver to the Cubs for Nico+. But what would that plus be? As for Castillo, he is probably better than Tailon, which is something they have said they were looking for. So he does fit the Cubs. I think him for Bellinger lines up pretty well. And again, if the goal for Seattle is lowering their payroll then take Garver back again. I am not really sure anything else has to be added either end that deal. Either deal finishes the rotation and leaves them $30M to $35M to grab a starting bat, a bench  at and a pen arm through a trade or free agency. They should be able to do all of that. Getting Garver solves the catcher spot. Higher priced that what I like, but it does eliminate a need. 
For me, trading either Nico or Bellinger should not signal that the Cubs opened a spot for a prospect. If they did either deal they would have their rotation in order and their catcher. They would still have $30M to work with to replace that bat they lost, add a pen arm and a bench bat. Very doable. Let all remaining top prospects start in AAA and come up as needed. If they prove themselves maybe then they find a spot for them. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

Taillon 2024: 2.3 fWAR, 2.2 rWAR

Castillo 2024: 2.3 fWAR, 1.8 rWAR

Cubs fans think the grass is greener everywhere and that allows the org to cut corners, all the way to two half decade rebuilds in a decade, but to actually break the cycle they need to separate themselves from vibes based roster building 

It really is wild that baseball was invented in 2024 and therefore we have no other data points in making this comparison.  

If you're bearish on Castillo that's fine, but it's disingenuous to pretend that there's no reason people might think Castillo will be better.  He's 2 years younger, throws much much harder, post-pandemic he's been worth 13 fWAR to Taillon's 8, and Steamer projects him to be 1.5 fWAR better with similar workload.

[Cuzi]

My only pause when it comes to Castillo is what is coming back with him. I think Castillo's ceiling going forward is probably 3 fWAR. That puts him at neutral value with his contract. If it takes Hoerner for the Mariners to pull the trigger, then what is coming with? Is it Young? Is it Ford? Or is it a collection of lesser guys. I dont think I do the deal if its less than Ford.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

My only pause when it comes to Castillo is what is coming back with him. I think Castillo's ceiling going forward is probably 3 fWAR. That puts him at neutral value with his contract. If it takes Hoerner for the Mariners to pull the trigger, then what is coming with? Is it Young? Is it Ford? Or is it a collection of lesser guys. I dont think I do the deal if its less than Ford.

That makes sense if Hoerner has to go for Castillo. But I think that it wil be Bellinger for him. I don’t want to have less money to spend after that trade. And I don’t want to trade Bellinger to get some of that money to spend so they don’t have to have 2 rookies in the line up. I actually don’t want any rookies penciled in as every day players. 

[Cuzi]

Bro, if the deal goes down Hoerner is gone. There is no smoke around Bellinger. It's all around Hoerner. You say you dont want to take on more money, well, guess who has even more reason to not take on more money... the Mariners.

[Rcal10]

27 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Bro, if the deal goes down Hoerner is gone. There is no smoke around Bellinger. It's all around Hoerner. You say you dont want to take on more money, well, guess who has even more reason to not take on more money... the Mariners.

Bro, you have a habit of only seeing what you want to see and only using those points to make your case and discount anything else. Seattle has been named as a possible spot for Bellinger several times. So, as I said, we will see. No one posting here knows that if a deal with Seattle goes down for Castillo it will be Hoerner gone. Not even you. 
 

[Cuzi]

I see what is painfully obvious. You choose to ignore the obvious to fit your best case.

The Mariners want to reduce payroll because they have a budget of $15-16M to find an upgrade at 2B, 3B, and BP. They aren't taking on more payroll to fill 1B while opening up a spot they have to fill in the rotation. Even the Bellinger rumors include Hoerner in the deal. The only place people are talking about Bellinger for Castillo straight up is here.

I challenge you to go read that MLBTR article that name drops Bellinger as a Mariners target and then get back to me with how realistic it is. The whole article is based on a Seattle times reporter writing about how the team is looking for a platoon option to pair with Raley, how Bellinger's contract is a big problem for what the Mariners are trying to accomplish this offseason, how they "covet" Nico Hoerner, and how trading from the rotation is "plan Z" according to Dipoto.

Don't know about you, but Bellinger really strikes me as the guy to get Dipoto to act on plan Z, instead of the player they "covet."

Edited December 8, 2024 by Cuzi