Rosenthal: Cubs want to trade Bellinger

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5935761/2024/11/21/blake-snell-free-agency-dodgers-mlb-offseason/

Quote

While rival executives say the Chicago Cubs want to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, they also note the difficulty the team likely will face pulling off such a move.

Bellinger, 29, secured a remaining guarantee of $32.5 million — $27.5 million in salary, $5 million in potential buyout — by choosing to remain with the Cubs rather than opt out. Execs often say there is no such thing as a bad one-year deal, but Bellinger wouldn’t necessarily be a one-year commitment; he can sacrifice the buyout and opt in for another $27.5 million in 2026.

The Bellinger of 2023, whose adjusted OPS was 39 percent above league average, was worth that kind of money, if not more. The Bellinger of ‘24 was still 11 percent above league average, but less impactful. He chose not to enter the free-agent market even though he loomed as a leading alternative among outfielders to Soto, along with Anthony Santander and Hernández.

The Yankees in the past have liked Bellinger, whose father Clay, played for them from 1999 to 2001. Bellinger presumably could be one of their options if they lose Soto and replace him with multiple players. But the $32.5 million Bellinger is guaranteed would mitigate the return in some fashion. The Cubs might need to take back an inflated contract, or accept marginal prospects in a deal.

The source here seems to be *other* front offices so worth taking with a grain of salt, but Rosenthal's words carry weight so worth taking into consideration.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

I’d say other front offices would know if the Cubs are wanting to trade him. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5935761/2024/11/21/blake-snell-free-agency-dodgers-mlb-offseason/

While rival executives say the Chicago Cubs want to trade first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger, they also note the difficulty the team likely will face pulling off such a move.

The Cubs paid around 17.5m for 1 year of Bellinger 2 offseasons ago coming off 3 bad offensive seasons.  He's not THAT overpaid.  Maybe by 3-5m AAV at most?  CF is a hard position to fill with a good player and there's no CF in FA this year even close to his ability. 

There's a bunch of teams that would want him, he wouldn't be that hard to trade, Cubs would probably just have to eat some money at worst or take on somebody else's overpaid player.

[Stratos]

I can't see the Cubs trading Bellinger before they have some other deal in place.  They could be gauging interest for future moves.

Honestly, Seiya in RF and a better bat with more power at DH that likely comes cheaper than Bellinger is a possible move.  Money saved could be spent elsewhere, like pitching/catching.  Soto is also a move but that's far-fetched until we see the Cubs meeting with him at least.

It wouldn't be that hard to trade for a bad-fielding MLB hitter who can DH and hit better than Belli.  They'd be trading Belli's defense in RF and position versatility for more thump, and we already have several guys in the lineup that are glove-first players (PCA/Nico/Dansby) & no elite hitters so that may make sense.  Less likely they go 3-4+ years on a FA given all our hitting prospects.

The risk is losing the depth Bellinger brings for PCA/Busch at CF and 1B in case of injury.  For CF depth we still  have 3 young OF prospects in Iowa on the 40-man (Alcantara and possibly Canario can play CF), plus Tauchman who is passable in CF (good hands/instincts, very average speed/range).  Mervis, Ballesteros, and whomever is our corner INF bench guy could cover 1B if Busch is injured, though they're all a likely downgrade from Bellinger.

[Cuzi]

Cant wait to trade him to the Yankees for Stroman.

Unsurprising that a $30M+ guarantee per year contract for the first 2 years on Bellinger is biting Jed's plans in the ass. Guess he should have been more adamant that Bellinger was going to opt out to save him face.

Edited November 21, 2024 by Cuzi

[jersey cubs fan]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

. 

There's a bunch of teams that would want him, he wouldn't be that hard to trade, Cubs would probably just have to eat some money at worst or take on somebody else's overpaid player.

Taking on somebody else’s overpaid player is defeating  the purpose and would mean that yes, it is that hard to trade Bellinger 

[Rcal10]

I just don’t see trading Bellinger as this impossible thing to do. Or in a trade that the Cubs have to take far less back for him or pay his contract down. It has been established that Wrigley hurt all offensive numbers last year. So if you look at Bellinger’s road numbers you will see .282/.247/.451. A respectable offensive year. That coupled with his versatility to play center, corner outfield or first makes him a solid trade chip. Not every team is worried salary. Some want good players on the field. Bellinger is a good player. They are not going to get top prospects or anything like that. But as Stratos said, maybe for a better bat with less versatility. Maybe for a veteran MOR starting pitcher. Maybe a bounce back starting pitcher. Most likely all those options would be guys getting a decent to high end salary.  I just don’t see him as some sort of dead weight on the team.
Dream scenario would be trade for a prospect and use his money plus what they already have and sign Soto. But I think we all know Soto was never going to happen, with or without Bellinger.(WHICH IS RIDICULOUS) 

[CubinNY]

Isn't this a good reason not to keep Jed? 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Isn't this a good reason not to keep Jed? 

Isn’t what a good reason not to keep Jed? Bellinger opting in for year two? I don’t think that is enough reason. I think if he doesn’t make the playoffs this year he is done. Again, I don’t see Bellinger and his contract as this major detriment to building this team. If he doesn’t get traded, he is a good player in the everyday line up. Sure, he is overpaid some. But if ownership acted like the Cubs were a major market, the overpay wouldn’t be that big a deal. Personally I don’t think it is anyway. Every team in baseball has several guys not earning their contract. Doesn’t make them bad players. Just overpaid. 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Isn’t what a good reason not to keep Jed? Bellinger opting in for year two? I don’t think that is enough reason. I think if he doesn’t make the playoffs this year he is done. Again, I don’t see Bellinger and his contract as this major detriment to building this team. If he doesn’t get traded, he is a good player in the everyday line up. Sure, he is overpaid some. But if ownership acted like the Cubs were a major market, the overpay wouldn’t be that big a deal. Personally I don’t think it is anyway. Every team in baseball has several guys not earning their contract. Doesn’t make them bad players. Just overpaid. 

He signed Bellinger to that contract that he now wants to be rid of because Bellinger didn't opt out. That's pretty short-sighted. 

[Bertz]

Yankees and Phillies feel like the logical options.  Both have very thin outfields and play in parks where Bellinger's bat would play up based on the expected homerun numbers.

I'd definitely be cautious in trading Bellinger.  I know everyone wants to add power to the lineup, but Soto aside none of the FA outfielders are really any better than him holistically.  Plus I'm not sure that saving Bellinger's money really moves the needle that much, since it's probably going right back into e.g. Anthony Santander.

Unless you have something specific lined up that moves the needle more than I expect, keep the defense, keep the outfielder on a short term deal, forego some dongs.

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He signed Bellinger to that contract that he now wants to be rid of because Bellinger didn't opt out. That's pretty short-sighted. 

It's not *perfect* but it's not a fireable action, either. It's not like the Cubs are stuck with Cody Bellinger for eight more years. It's probably pretty likely that he will opt-out next year, even if he has a similar kind of season. He would receive a $5m buyout, and I think it'd be pretty likely that the difference in what he signs and what he's owed in 2026 ($25m) won't be that different. If he, for example, gets a 4/5 year deal with an AAV of $18m, he'd lose $2m in total in 2026 ($5m buyout + $18m is $23m) but would come with 3-4 years more of guarantees. 

It's not a horrible contract. It just makes him a little tough to trade right now, because he's not particularly cheap, or amazing surplus value, or young, or controllable. 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yankees and Phillies feel like the logical options.  Both have very thin outfields and play in parks where Bellinger's bat would play up based on the expected homerun numbers.

I'd definitely be cautious in trading Bellinger.  I know everyone wants to add power to the lineup, but Soto aside none of the FA outfielders are really any better than him holistically.  Plus I'm not sure that saving Bellinger's money really moves the needle that much, since it's probably going right back into e.g. Anthony Santander.

Unless you have something specific lined up that moves the needle more than I expect, keep the defense, keep the outfielder on a short term deal, forego some dongs.

The money going where? I'd assume that the money would be going toward pitching. Is that a bad assumption? 

I like Bellinger. 

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

The money going where? I'd assume that the money would be going toward pitching. Is that a bad assumption? 

I like Bellinger. 

Right now they have (presumably) $50M+ to make a couple additions to the bench and to throw at pitching.  It's a smidge tight, but you could absolutely do something like

$25M SP

$10M RP

$15M across three bench guys

Trading Bellinger gives you some breathing room, but any backfill in free agency is also going to cost between $20-25M per year, so not much.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, ultimately I think the math for a Bellinger trade is even more narrow than a trade for Nico Hoerner, which I think is a really narrow landing strip. 

Maybe you can double it up? Like you trade Bellinger - for something , then you swap Hoerner for Wilyer Abreu in Boston, and then you do something extra with the money you saved? 

Feels kind of crazy but maybe there's a path? But I can't see many paths here. I think it'll probably end up with the Cubs realizing that trading Bellinger isn't going to really help the team long term. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Testing copy.

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

He signed Bellinger to that contract that he now wants to be rid of because Bellinger didn't opt out. That's pretty short-sighted. 

First, we don’t know how true it is the Cubs want to trade Bellinger. Maybe they do, but that doesn’t mean they want to dump him. It isn’t like the Az GM who signed Montgomery and now has him for a second year. Which, btw, he isn’t getting fired for that move. Asking around the league about what can be had for Bellinger is not a bad thing to do. Honestly, he is the most obvious trade candidate in the Cubs everyday line up. Doesn’t mean it was those huge unforgivable offense to sign him to the contract they signed him for. He is still a good player who can play outfield or first base, albeit at a salary higher than what he should be making. 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

First, we don’t know how true it is the Cubs want to trade Bellinger. Maybe they do, but that doesn’t mean they want to dump him. It isn’t like the Az GM who signed Montgomery and now has him for a second year. Which, btw, he isn’t getting fired for that move. Asking around the league about what can be had for Bellinger is not a bad thing to do. Honestly, he is the most obvious trade candidate in the Cubs everyday line up. Doesn’t mean it was those huge unforgivable offense to sign him to the contract they signed him for. He is still a good player who can play outfield or first base, albeit at a salary higher than what he should be making. 

pretend it's true. I wouldn't have posted it if it weren't a rumor and wasn't put on a website. If it's true... If it's not true disregard. 

 

[Rcal10]

Just now, CubinNY said:

pretend it's true. I wouldn't have posted it if it weren't a rumor and wasn't put on a website. If it's true... If it's not true disregard. 

 

Even true, 1908 said it best. Not the greatest move Jed made. But not a fireable offense. He is still a good ball player. Cubs need good ball players. And if they trade him it better be for a useful, good ballplayer. Or just keep him. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Jeds overall body of work is a fireable offense 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Jeds overall body of work is a fireable offense 

This may or may not be true now. But IMO if they start next season poorly or are a few games under 500 nearing the break, the fire Jed watch might begin. And if it doesn’t happen during the year, if he doesn’t make the playoffs this season, I think it will happen at that time.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Bellinger has a career 118 wRC+ and has been at worst an average CF defensively, more frequently a few runs above average.  Even if 2024 was the new norm, that profile(110 wRC+, +2ish CF defense, 10+ steals) is very valuable.  Chisholm and Carroll were 4 win players with that + 20 steals, so with wins costing at least 9 million, I think Bellinger's 2 year deal isn't underwater.

That doesn't mean he's easy to trade, because not all teams are looking for a CF or could take on that contract even if they wanted to.  I suspect given the likely diversity of opinions about Bellinger that what may be perceived as shopping him is trying to get a sense for his market early in the offseason.  

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Bellinger has a career 118 wRC+ and has been at worst an average CF defensively, more frequently a few runs above average.  Even if 2024 was the new norm, that profile(110 wRC+, +2ish CF defense, 10+ steals) is very valuable.  Chisholm and Carroll were 4 win players with that + 20 steals, so with wins costing at least 9 million, I think Bellinger's 2 year deal isn't underwater.

That doesn't mean he's easy to trade, because not all teams are looking for a CF or could take on that contract even if they wanted to.  I suspect given the likely diversity of opinions about Bellinger that what may be perceived as shopping him is trying to get a sense for his market early in the offseason.  

Well said. That is why I think if they did trade him if would be for a similar type of contract on a guy who is good, not great. Maybe Castillo, as an example. He becomes the Cubs MOR starting pitcher. Seattle adds a bat to the line up. Maybe that sort of deal needs a 3rd team in the event Seattle doesn’t want an outfielder. Maybe Bohm to Seattle, Bellinger to Phillies and Castillo to the Cubs. Figure out the add on that may need to be included. This is just an example of what I would expect if the Cubs dealt Bellinger. I know Stratos posted Bellinger for Schwarber earlier, which I thought was not possible. But maybe that isn’t so impossible. Yet another example.

[Cuzi]

Bellinger aint getting you Castillo.

[Tryptamine]

Unless they're bringing in as big, or a bigger bat, what's the point?