Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline top 100:

Cam Smith - 59
Jackson Ferris - 71
Zyhir Hope - 75

[Bertz]

Keith Law:

14 - Matt Shaw

33 - Kevin Alcantara

46 - Moises Ballesteros

74 - Cade Horton

No Caissie, which shouldn't surprise as Law's been the low man on Caissie for years.  Cam Smith at 43 and Zyhir Hope at 58.  No Jackson Ferris.

[Rex Buckingham]

One other note from Law's list is that when referencing his grading scale for tools, he mentions that "80 is Pete Crow-Armstrong's defense"

[Post Count Padder]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law:

14 - Matt Shaw

33 - Kevin Alcantara

46 - Moises Ballesteros

74 - Cade Horton

No Caissie, which shouldn't surprise as Law's been the low man on Caissie for years.  Cam Smith at 43 and Zyhir Hope at 58.  No Jackson Ferris.

So he's super low on Caissie and higher on Alcantara at this point than most people. Is this because he thinks Caissie is a power-only guy? And he think KA is more well-rounded?

[Bertz]

41 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

So he's super low on Caissie and higher on Alcantara at this point than most people. Is this because he thinks Caissie is a power-only guy? And he think KA is more well-rounded?

He has said before he thinks Caissie's contact issues are disqualifying.  Justin Crawford running GB rates in the 60s and 70s is fine though apparently.

[Bertz]

 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Quite a list. Hard to argue with the top 10, though I think Long needs to hit the ground running for me to think of him as a Top 10 guy. I'd have Valdez in the top 20 and I don't feel that good about Gray. I really don't know if he'll get the control problems figured out. This will be a big year for him. And I have not paid attention to Erian Rodriguez. Must be a favorite of his.

[Bertz]

Kiley McDaniel

23  - Matt Shaw

50 - Moises Ballesteros

64 - Kevin Alcantara

86 - Owen Caissie

97 - Cade Horton

Zyhir Hope was 70, Cam Smith 73, Jackson Ferris 93

[Rex Buckingham]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6087196/2025/01/29/mlb-prospects-top-100-just-missed-2025/

Keith Law's just missed list includes both Caissie and Jefferson Rojas

[CaliforniaRaisin]

2 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6087196/2025/01/29/mlb-prospects-top-100-just-missed-2025/

Keith Law's just missed list includes both Caissie and Jefferson Rojas

Jackson Ferris also made this list.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA's full preseason top 30: https://www.baseballamerica.com/teams/2005-chicago-cubs/prospects/?season=2025&ranking=preseason

1. Matt Shaw
2. Cade Horton
3. Moisés Ballesteros
4. Owen Caissie
5. Kevin Alcántara
6. Jefferson Rojas
7. James Triantos
8. Brandon Birdsell
9. Jaxon Wiggins
10. Cole Mathis
11. Jonathon Long
12. Juan Tomas
13. Ángel Cepeda
14. Benjamin Cowles
15. Pedro Ramírez
16. Brody McCullough
17, Wilfri de la Cruz
18. Ronny Cruz
19. Yahil Melendez
20. Cristian Hernández
21. Ty Southisene
22. Gage Workman
23. Pablo Aliendo
24. Juan Cabada
25. Will Sanders
26. Alexander Canario - has lost his prospect status
27. Jack Neely
28. Nick Dean
29. Sam Armstrong
30. Brett Bateman

[Jason Ross]

System is an interesting time with the 11-30 range right now. A lot of that comes with the territory - a lot of these players have little/no experience above A-ball but all have some glimpses and flashes of upside. Will be fun next year to follow and track the players of that group who rise through the fog. Figure there's probably 1-3 breakouts somewhere in that mix, be it a Cole Mathis, Ty Southesene, or a few of the younger arms like Erian Rodriguez. 

[craig]

Yeah, with all the Latin teenage shortstops, who can guess which of those guys might emerge as real prospects?  Not super inspiring that the last two big-ticket internationals, Fernando Cruz from last year and Derniche Valdez from previous year, can't even crack BA's top 30.  And all the newer guys (Tomas, de la Cruz, Cabada from this month; Ronny Cruz, Southisene, from this draft; Melendez from previous draft) who are in that range.

I don't imagine any of the scouts can know very well which teen infielder will actually hit or not.  Perhaps Derniche will show up with more motivation and maturity this season, will make at least a little contact, and after he's on the field for a few weeks in AZ he'll jump ahead of all those other guys in scouts eyes?  Same for Fernando, who knows?  Seems like every scout who's had a brief glimpse at some of these guys, they all like somebody different.  I just hope they don't all bust, which seems the Cubs norm with teen infielders.  

[Post Count Padder]

No Derniche or Fernando Cruz or Nazier Mule on that list is bonkers to me. I have them each in my top 30. I know it's subjective and they're all fairly raw but cmon. 

[craig]

On Derniche, did we ever get any input for why he was suspended for so much of the season?  

Or is my memory crazy, and he was never suspended, he was just injured or something?  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

4 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

No Derniche or Fernando Cruz or Nazier Mule on that list is bonkers to me. I have them each in my top 30. I know it's subjective and they're all fairly raw but cmon. 

Ehh, they all have massive red flags. Derniche strikes out way too much in the complex league (and maybe the two stints on the restricted list are a strike against him), Cruz was bad in the DSL and Mulé walked 42 guys in 52 innings last season while looking more like a 1 inning RP.

Only one I'd have in my top 30 is Naz and that's because I'm giving him a one-year mulligan on the control due to the TJS.

[Bertz]

Keith Law ranked the Cubs as having the #6 farm system, which IMO feels a bit rich.

Law's rankings have always been focused on the top tier of the system though.  So it is consistent for him to love the farm right now after having been comparatively light on it the past few years.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

On 1/29/2025 at 6:45 AM, Bertz said:

Kiley McDaniel

23  - Matt Shaw

50 - Moises Ballesteros

64 - Kevin Alcantara

86 - Owen Caissie

97 - Cade Horton

Zyhir Hope was 70, Cam Smith 73, Jackson Ferris 93

Jefferson Rojas at 120, James Triantos at 181.

Quote

Win a batting title

James Triantos, 2B, Chicago Cubs (181)

Triantos is a pure fit for this title, as his bat is his only above-average tool, and his bat control might be his only plus skill, in keeping with MLB batting-average idol Luis Arraez. Triantos did steal 47 bases despite having average speed, but the sales pitch here is an incredible contact rate while being passable at a few positions defensively.

 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

Keith Law ranked the Cubs as having the #6 farm system, which IMO feels a bit rich.

Law's rankings have always been focused on the top tier of the system though.  So it is consistent for him to love the farm right now after having been comparatively light on it the past few years.

Agree. We need to see a lot of development from about 8-30. It seems like they have a bunch of future relief pitchers and bench players. But hope springs eternal on the development side. Their big swing last year is in Houston. I hope they intend to at least try to extend Tucker. 

[Outshined_One]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Agree. We need to see a lot of development from about 8-30. It seems like they have a bunch of future relief pitchers and bench players. But hope springs eternal on the development side. Their big swing last year is in Houston. I hope they intend to at least try to extend Tucker. 

I'm not quite so worried about the middle tier of the hitters in the system at the moment.  There's enough raw talent in the bottom tier that it is not unreasonable to predict at least one of those guys having a breakout season in 2025, and there's currently a backlog of guys in the top tier who are blocked at the major league level, so it's not like there's a desperate need to get Jefferson Rojas up into the majors this season.  As we also saw last season, one really good draft can change the complexion of that tier in a hurry.

On the other hand, the top to bottom pitching in the minors really bugs me.  I know, I know, TINSTAAPP, but things seemed a lot rosier in the pitching department last season compared to now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Quote

10. Chicago Cubs ($215 million) 

Last year: 2nd, $328 million

Top 100 prospects: 5

Like the Mets, the Cubs also have a wealth of prospects, mostly position players, in the upper minors who could be a real factor in the 2025 season. 3B Matt Shaw is tracking like an Opening Day starter. C Moises Ballesteros, 2B James Triantos, CF Kevin Alcantara, RF Owen Caissie, RHP Cade Horton and RHP Brandon Birdsell all are likely to open the season in Triple-A.

Five of those players made the top 100, one is ranked among the 101-200, and one just missed. If even half of those players are solid big leaguers in 2025, that changes the team-building posture of a franchise with Kyle Tucker and Ryan Pressly hitting free agency after this season followed by Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner and Jameson Taillon the next year. Replacing some of those players with graduated prospects making the league minimum frees up a lot of money with one fewer roster need.

 

[Post Count Padder]

Anyone know when Pipeline is doing their new Top 30s?

[CubinNY]

Law took a big swipe at Breslow for firing scouts while ranking their system #2. Cubs #6

[Bertz]

21 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Anyone know when Pipeline is doing their new Top 30s?

Looking through Jim Callis' feed I don't see him saying it anywhere, but they're usually not far behind the Top 100.  I'd assume the next week or so.

[CubinNY]

Law also say Rojas will like not make it as a SS. I didn’t know he had so much trouble on defense. He did say there is a lot of potential in the bat.